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View Poll Results: Stocks as a percentage of my net assets are -
0 - 25% -- I'm like the most conservative Indians. I love FDs. 224 31.95%
26 - 50% -- I have a few stocks. 313 44.65%
51 - 75% -- I'm an active trader. 114 16.26%
76 - 100% -- Hey, I'm an i-banker!!! 50 7.13%
Voters: 701. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 2nd December 2008, 20:25   #931
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Zaks I never advice people on what to buy and when to buy because clearly I know that I know nothing. I certainly don't know how the Nifty will behave over the next one month or one year. I can still predict its movement over one/two hour or so and come correct more often than not but I can never predict over a one month horizon.
If you ask me what stocks I have bought in the recent past, it's Hindalco at around 39 and Tisco at around 150. I don't know what else to buy. So the other 8 will get a pass from me. I would buy Indian Hotels if it comes down to 20. I know it sounds ridiculous now. But I do think global travel will take a hit in the near future and the sentiment then would be against hotel stocks.
I would actually wait for a few more dips in the market and then study ITC and L&T. I have a feeling the government will one day sell its holdings in these two companies in block to some groups - for example BAT for ITC or Reliance for L&T. That will set fire to these two scrips. When this will happen I don't know.
To a first time investor I have this to say - don't look at the price relative to what it was a few weeks or months ago. A share is going cheap when it is being quoted at a price less than its intrinsic value. Tisco looked cheap when it came down from Rs 1000 to Rs 750 over a few days. Now it is 150 !!!
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Old 2nd December 2008, 20:40   #932
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sudipto-S-Team View Post
A share is going cheap when it is being quoted at a price less than its intrinsic value. Tisco looked cheap when it came down from Rs 1000 to Rs 750 over a few days. Now it is 150 !!!
Perfect. Yes, during such bear market lots of shares start reaching to thier 52 week lows or even lower. It does not mean they lost the game. Market is mainly driven by sentiment. Now the senti is not good. But just watch the business the stock company is in and decide if its good buy at that price.

One more is Voltas. Which is basically good stock, but got a beating in this bear run. How much are you willing to pay for that company, depends on your comfort level.

Eg: If you think that company has some unique product or monopoly in that area, chances [I repeat, chances] are it will be a multi bagger.

If not spoted right, the position of "a" will be taken by "e"
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Old 2nd December 2008, 21:56   #933
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Here's a non-investor but market observer's view point:

Buy commodities. The cycle is woefully down, but hold on, and in a few years, the demand will resume, americans will consume, chinese factories will churn full blast - you cant go too wrong with sensibly managed firms. I fully love Reliance - they have the wherewithal to play the market and the rules of the game - they'll come up trumps in most markets. But patience it'll be.

Even for a decent rise in prices again - their margins will expand like crazy, and so will the valuations.
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Old 4th December 2008, 12:35   #934
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Last night I was checking CL running contract for Crude Oil in Comex and I found that it may straight run towards a price of $85,here one should use a stop of $40 for safety.Mcx contract soon going to bottoming out,worth a risk to go long rather than shoring at currect levels,not only that last night crude oil inventories showed a surprise gain in US,may be a positive signal for economy and this was the only reason why dow and nashdayak ended in green.
------------------
Pasting a summary of weekly CL report here.
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending November 28, 2008

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 14.6 million barrels per day
during the week ending November 28, down 258 thousand barrels per day from the
previous week's average. Refineries operated at 84.3 percent of their operable
capacity last week. Gasoline production fell last week, averaging 8.7 million
barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.3
million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.5 million barrels per day last week, down
nearly 1.5 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four
weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 10.0 million barrels per day, 17
thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor
gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending
components) last week averaged 884 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel
imports averaged 116 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased 0.4 million barrels from the previous week. At
320.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased
by 1.6 million barrels last week, and are below the lower boundary of the
average range. Finished gasoline inventories fell last week while gasoline
blending components inventories increased during this same time. Distillate fuel
inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels, and are below the lower boundary of
the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories remained
flat last week and are slightly below the lower limit of the average range.
Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last
week, and are in the middle of average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 19.3
million barrels per day, down by 6.2 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 8.9 million
barrels per day, down by 3.2 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged nearly 4.0 million barrels per day over the last four
weeks, down by 2.2 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is
16.7 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week
period last year.

The tables that follow display the latest U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet and the
most recent 4 weeks of Weekly Petroleum Status Report data.
-----------------------
Quote:
Buy commodities

Last edited by ECM : 4th December 2008 at 12:37.
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Old 4th December 2008, 12:44   #935
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vivekiny2k View Post
totally forgot about the taxes . never did any tax saving.

I was talking about the exit load...which is not applicable after an year normally.
I am stuck in these Tax MF for another 2-3 years. God knows when I can get back my principal back.

Looking at the things now, if my beauty sensex falls below 8000, my target for it would be close to 5500. Dont blast me guys, its purely my gut feeling
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Old 4th December 2008, 14:41   #936
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Nifty UP ^ by 4.06%!
Nice to see a good rally with green color on the screen,hit me hard dear bears.
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Old 4th December 2008, 15:26   #937
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15 min intraday chart for Nifty Future
All is clearly visible here,no need to post any comments.
Attached Thumbnails
Do you play the stock market-nifty15mins.png  

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Old 4th December 2008, 15:37   #938
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You are right ECM, I felt samething last week, Nifty is showing good support at 2500 then slowly around 2600 and today at 2700 which indicates it might rally to 3200 levels also but first target is 2850 and should close above it by tomorrow which shows sign of 3050 and then might 3200??

Bears are afraid of shorting now a days.

Ravi.
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Old 4th December 2008, 16:11   #939
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do any of you guys( ECM , ravibhat) are having positions in NIFTY futures or is it just analysis...?
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Old 4th December 2008, 16:26   #940
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I projected a technical aspect here,double check.I do hold few stocks which I bought on 27th Oct.I am ready to post all my trades with a scaned copy of my bills here with a condition those who all posting in this thread will do the same.
Quote:
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do any of you guys( ECM , ravibhat) are having positions in NIFTY futures or is it just analysis...?
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Old 4th December 2008, 16:31   #941
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ECM View Post
I projected a technical aspect here,double check.I do hold few stocks which I bought on 27th Oct.I am ready to post all my trades with a scaned copy of my bills here with a condition those who all posting in this thread will do the same.

ECM, I wouldnt recommend that. This thread is for educational purposes and not for personal information. I hope you understood what I mean to say.
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Old 4th December 2008, 21:53   #942
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Yes I do hold few position. If someone is interested I can give accurate tension free calls daily, PM me for more details.

According to my new strategy in share market target is to earn 20,000/- per month with 1 lac investment and I am already finding good success in both up/down trends. This hard work is to buy my dream Safari or Innova in coming months.

Regards,

Ravi.

PS I am not marketing anything here its just friendly help If someone wants me to join to find success.
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Old 4th December 2008, 23:13   #943
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99.99% US$ has topped out against IRe.This info may be usefull for those who track forex.
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Old 4th December 2008, 23:40   #944
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And last but not the least a simple theory I am appling to do some bottom fishing in Crude oil,here is a chart of CL series in Comex,time frame 5 mins.See the reversal.This I am posting for a study purpose.
Current Comex contract will expire on 19th Dec so on that day we may see huge upside in CL price,better buy few mcx lots for Crude and wait for 19th,good luck.
Attached Thumbnails
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Old 5th December 2008, 07:05   #945
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NDTV goes up by close to 30% since I picked it up last week. All thanks to the hysterionics of a certain lady reporter?

ECM - Why do you blank out the software name, that too after offering to post all your trades in here? Some super secret software?

Also, how does one start to learn technical analysis?

Last edited by kuttapan : 5th December 2008 at 07:07.
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