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|3rd February 2009, 19:30||#166|
Join Date: Sep 2006
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|3rd February 2009, 19:37||#167|
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Toronto / Kurukshetra
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|4th February 2009, 00:07||#169|
Senior - BHPian
Join Date: Jan 2008
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My thoughts on a complicated thread (even more complex problem!)
I just finished reading the posts on this thread (all 12 pages of them). First off, my absolute and sincere sympathies with the individuals who have been laid off, or are otherwise suffering from the effects of the present economic situation.
I am aware that I may perhaps raise many hackles as I go along, at the risk of being flamed, I proceed (with caution). I shall try not to tread on any toes, but if I do, I apologise in advance.
The members in their posts have raised several points and I shall try to address them point wise.
1. A depression / recession / downturn / slowdown etc., are to you and me, being laymen, the same thing. Technically too, the difference is merely one of degree (in the statistics). As the famous quip goes: there are lies, there are damn lies and there are statistics!
I shall therefore refer to it as a recession for that is how most of us see it.
2. There is no point in quibbling whether India is in a recession or not. For the economists to determine whether there is a recession or not, they need reliable statistics and the statistics in India are of absolutely no use. Imagine, our official unemployment rate is something like 20 or 25%!!
Looking around us, what do we see? We see people losing jobs, we see slimmer pay packets. We see thinning order books. We see defaults in payments for orders fulfilled. We see goods not getting sold in shops. That, according to me, is a recession. True, the effects of it in India are not as bad as in the US, but remember we did not have the kind of boom that the US had. The adage - the higher you go, the harder you fall is equally applicable to this scenario.
The fact is that major chunks of the Indian economy are in recession.
3. This is a tricky part. The question is who, or what is to blame? The frank answer (bound to be unpalatable to most) is that noone or nothing can be blamed! A recession is an integral part of the economic cycle. Some hold that a recession is a painful but necessary part of the cycle. Most economists and all governments try to fight the recession(s), if nothing else, they try to reduce its impact upon the individuals by reducing the intensity and the duration of the recession.
So, there is no point in trying to blame the US or the bankers or the bond houses or anyone else. These are, at worst, triggers or, at best mere co-incidences in time. If a fall is imminent, it will happen and sometimes for no reason at all.
A few months ago, if one asked - Why is the Indian share market down? The reply would be - Because oil price is USD 140 a barrel! Several reams of paper and hours of TV time have been spent expounding the effects of increased of oil prices on the Indian economy. If what they said then was true, the Indian economy and stock market should have been booming today as the oil price is half what it was then.
Why a fall? Imagine today (with petrol costing Rs.50/- per litre and beer at Rs.100/- per bottle), someone tried to sell you a Maruti 800 at Rs.1 crore. Would you buy it? Obviously not.
What happens in the bigger picture is, over a large number of people, the price of the M800 keeps inching towards the 1Cr. mark with more and more people saying no. The initial resistance is very low, suddenly it develops critical mass and there are suddenly no takers for the M800 at Rs.1 Cr.
In boom times i.e. when the economy is growing, the prices of everything (including salaries and wages) keep inching forward, till suddenly someone realises that he is paying too much and stops buying. When a lot of people stop buying, we have a recession. Effect, reduced prices, reduced wages, reduced salaries and after the reduction, the race forward and upward begins again.
India has had several recessions in the past even before globalisation. Fortunately, they were largely restricted to certain segments of the economy. The textile, sugar, paper, cement and steel industries have always been cyclical in India. The cycles never simultaneously bottomed out at the same time until now.
Why globalisation? Imagine a village of 100 houses, of which 95 houses grow vegetables. The villager has to bring his vegetables to the city, take our money and go to his village. He would not have been able to sell his vegetables in his village. Without exporting, how many lakhs of people can India employ in the IT industry? Selling our goods and services abroad means we are taking their money and bringing it home.
Being strong does not mean locking myself inside my house, closing all doors and windows and shouting to myself - "I am strong, I am the best". Being strong means opening my doors, venturing out to conquer new worlds, challenging all comers and overcoming every obstacle to eventually reign supreme!
Comparisons with China are not only irrelevant but are odious. If, I believe that the Indian statistics are fudged, then Chinese statistics are works of fiction. It might be of interest though that, my counterparts in Shanghai and Taiwan say that things are as bad there as in India.
4. How much further wil things fall? For how long? There are as many opinions out there as there are 'experts'. Frankly I dont think anyone knows.
5. How does one deal with it at the individual level?
a. Do what the companies are doing - downsize, cut costs ruthlessly at every turn.
b. Look for alternative sources and streams of revenue. If necessary, outside your normal domain. If possible, by utilising your existing skills in new areas or industries. If you are facing problems because of a downturn in your industry, makes no sense to look for alternatives in that industry - move on into a different field, area or industry.
c. Research extensively to find out which field or industry will be the one to lead us out of this mess. The aeronautical, automotive, engineering, steel, agro-based, infrastructure, financial and IT industries have been the sunrise industries in turns and, have led economies out of the doldrums. If you have time on your hands, research well and make your choice now. Get into that future sunrise industry and lead the pack out of the abyss.
d. Dont lose hope, things have to get better (personally I feel it will happen sooner rather than later). If things become too difficult and you have to sell assets, start disposing off the depreciating assets first - consumer electronics, white goods, furniture, cars etc. The last to go should be real property i.e. the flats, houses and land. If you are fortunate and have cash, hang on to it, or invest it in several places, no class of asset is totally safe today. If you are adventerous and have an appetite for risk, keep shuffling you money in and out of asset classes. Keep riding the small waves to rake in small profits. The days of big profits are over for now.
e. Make your money work hard for you. Use debt wisely, switch old expensive debt for new cheaper debt. Do not over-leverage, over-leveraging is fine for boom times not now. Prepare a war chest to invest when things start looking up. Dont even try to catch the bottom, wait till things stabilise and all signals are strong before you place your bets.
Cheers and wishing everyone all the best,
|4th February 2009, 12:11||#170|
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Chennai, India
Thanked: 70 Times
Sad News Folks.
It is with a deep regret that I am in a predicament that I generally hate to be in. I have been asked to axe 6 personnel from my team in Bahrain as a cost cutting measure. I do know that they are nice guys and hard workers but the financials just do not add up.
I have a request to make, if any of you need .NET/Oracle personnel with experiences ranging from 3 - 6 years please do PM me and I shall have their profiles sent with my personal recommendation. There is absolutely no costing or no charges in this. I am just trying to help people with whom I have worked for a few years.
I know these are hard times but it is unfortunate that sometimes we have to let people go against our wishes.
|6th February 2009, 19:52||#171|
Senators for H1-B bar on bailout firms
Just read this
Senators for H1-B bar on bailout firms | Deccan Chronicle
If this happen, it will going to impact Indians and Indian companies a lot.
Last edited by sam003 : 6th February 2009 at 19:54.
|7th February 2009, 16:12||#172|
US Senate imposes strict conditions on H-1B hiring- Visa Power-Travel-Services-News By Industry-News-The Economic Times
this going to be big setback for Indian IT professionals.
|7th February 2009, 16:25||#173|
Distinguished - BHPian
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Nashua, NH
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|8th February 2009, 05:38||#174|
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: BOM, PNQ, DXB
Thanked: 21 Times
Think Reverse logistics
Suppose they arm twisted the Indian government into taking more foreign professionals in Indian jobs, most of us here would be looking at the raw end of the stick.
Also,, its their country, for how long can we take it for granted ?
Teesra point - let's grow strong on our own. Period, at this time take a leaf out of Lebanon & Israel's book, how to prosper on a chit of a country, I am sure the combined area of Greater Mumbai & Navi Mumbai is equivalent to Israel's populated areas. Look at them, wiki is your friend. Look at their GDPs.
One thing for sure, the eating off the fat of the land is out, atleast for the next 4-6 years. (i.e. there's a rich employee, let's sell to him - this is common across the world) Don't believe me check the pawn shop (USA) revenues for the past 2 quarters. They are the nett exporters of the USA.
Last edited by mmmjgm : 8th February 2009 at 05:41.
|8th February 2009, 08:27||#175|
Join Date: Jan 2009
Have seen the recession affect all Industries and all countries.
We are an Executive Search and Recruitment Firm specializing in the Financial Sector for the Middle East market.
Of course the Financial Sector is affected but other Industries too have cut back on everything due to fear which has led to further degradation of the situation.
In October we had two offices each with 10 employees and were looking for another premises to seat 30 new employees.
Now, we have shut one office and are down to 10 employees with no revenue at all in the last two and a half months. Fortunately the plans for the third office were canceled by the management.
An optimistic view would be uptick in July, a realistic view would be uptick in Feb 2010.
The only good thing I have seen out of this is after 3 years of no vacations and a lot of hard work (read 16 hour days and weekends), finally got a chance to take three vacations in a period of 3 months, got the time to buy a new car and drove it to Goa twice. Also, finally able to hit the gym and loose some weight.
My really precious two cents worth (surely every cent/paisa) counts right now.
|8th February 2009, 22:07||#177|
Join Date: Jul 2006
Thanked: 3 Times
|8th February 2009, 22:12||#178|
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Coimbatore/ Aachen
Thanked: 17 Times
I dont think its just enough if go to any B school but see the engineering colleges also with guys placed and then waiting for the call letters :(
Proxima : I am facing the same issue !!
|9th February 2009, 09:14||#179|
Join Date: Aug 2007
Thanked: 27 Times
This time, companies which came last year to recruit in big numbers are taking 2-3 students, NO location preference. IT companies are almost nill.
Insurance and bank - RM jobs are in numbers. But packages have a 30%- 40% variable (target driven). Avg salary levels are down by 50-60% and no. of students placed is low !
|9th February 2009, 09:27||#180|
Join Date: Jul 2006
Thanked: 3 Times
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