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Old 31st January 2011, 11:42   #16
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

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+1
And let's not think when a revolution happens, the entire population erupts. A mere 5% of the population can bring about a change, by uprising. Even when the Indian independence struggle was going on majority of them were mute spectators, happy with their normal existance. It's only a minority of them that revolted, and a favorable post WW-II scenario helped.
Exactly my point. Despite all the selfishness and money making at all cost, still there are percentage of people, who join the Army or the Civil Services to want to make a change. All one needs is a good change agent who will motivate a few others to start the movement.

And I don't buy the theory that everybody is bad. Its just that people have become complacent. These people will awake and arise, just that you need to shake them real hard. Remember the Priyadarshini Mattoo and more recently Jessica Lall and now Ruchika Girhotra case were the result of public and media activism. In the last few years courtesy PIL and Amicus Curiae, the judiciary is taking up the cudgel against wrong doing. And I think the people will rise!

Remember this saying "Boond Boond se Sagar banta hai" (It takes every drop to make the ocean)
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Old 31st January 2011, 11:49   #17
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

My 2 cents:
If people of Egypt manage to overthrow the President/Prime Minister, the question is what next?
Will the new Govt be any different. In my opinion revolutions merely change the Rulers, but the basic fact, Ruler and the Ruled, remain.

Just like in case of our democracy. Brown Sahibs replaced the Gora Sahibs.

And India will never go the Egypt way. We get to see new faces after every election. That there is any difference in the number of scams/corruption is a different matter all together.
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Old 31st January 2011, 12:00   #18
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

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How I wish India also heads in the same direction. But it won't happen because:
Even if such a thing happens, how will it bring a system that is better than current one?
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Old 31st January 2011, 12:26   #19
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

Hosni Mubarak's days as the president of Egypt are numbered.

It is just a matter of time before he steps down.
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Old 31st January 2011, 13:16   #20
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

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Hosni Mubarak's days as the president of Egypt are numbered.

It is just a matter of time before he steps down.
And that is where the problem lies. For all the wrong things done, he has also kept Egypt out of Islamic fundamentalism by banning his primary opposition party. If he is succeeded by Gamal- his son, the country will surely revolt. If the opposition comes, I dread to think about the Talibanisation of Egypt and the loss of beautiful civilisation, culture et al.

Further on as Middle East Stalwart, any change in leadership in Egypt will have strong resonance on Israel and ME policy.
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Old 31st January 2011, 13:26   #21
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

The problem is who takes over afterward. Look at Iraq and Afghanistan - both artificially propped up. Tunisia is in a flux, Egypt does have a credible opposition leader in waiting though. As for India, who else is there?
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Old 31st January 2011, 13:28   #22
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

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And that is where the problem lies. For all the wrong things done, he has also kept Egypt out of Islamic fundamentalism by banning his primary opposition party. If he is succeeded by Gamal- his son, the country will surely revolt. If the opposition comes, I dread to think about the Talibanisation of Egypt and the loss of beautiful civilisation, culture et al.

Further on as Middle East Stalwart, any change in leadership in Egypt will have strong resonance on Israel and ME policy.

+1 to that.He has been in the forefront of ensuring that his country doesnt go in the way of many nations in West Asia and Middle east.I hope something better comes out of this entire exercise.US and Israel would be watching this unfold with bated breath
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Old 31st January 2011, 13:31   #23
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

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As for India, who else is there?
Mere Bharat ke mahan suput are there like Amarsingh, Ashok Chavan, Maya-Mamata-Jay'ta, kumarswami,.... list goes on.

Last edited by ASHISHPALLOD : 31st January 2011 at 13:32.
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Old 31st January 2011, 13:55   #24
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

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My 2 cents:
If people of Egypt manage to overthrow the President/Prime Minister, the question is what next?
Will the new Govt be any different. In my opinion revolutions merely change the Rulers, but the basic fact, Ruler and the Ruled, remain.

Just like in case of our democracy. Brown Sahibs replaced the Gora Sahibs.

And India will never go the Egypt way. We get to see new faces after every election. That there is any difference in the number of scams/corruption is a different matter all together.
Not many new faces though :(. I see mainly incumbants getting elected year after year, but thats true in the US also. If anything were to happen in india as it is happening in Egypt, it will start in the hinterlands and then spread to the have nots in the cities and towns.
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Old 31st January 2011, 13:56   #25
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

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Egypt does have a credible opposition leader in waiting though
If we are talking about ElBaradei, yes as an independent and a neutral figure he could be the best bet Egypt will have. But if its the Muslim Brotherhood that gains control, god only knows what will happen!
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Old 31st January 2011, 14:11   #26
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

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And that is where the problem lies. For all the wrong things done, he has also kept Egypt out of Islamic fundamentalism by banning his primary opposition party. If he is succeeded by Gamal- his son, the country will surely revolt. If the opposition comes, I dread to think about the Talibanisation of Egypt and the loss of beautiful civilisation, culture et al.

Further on as Middle East Stalwart, any change in leadership in Egypt will have strong resonance on Israel and ME policy.
I am not sure if Gamal would be made the president.

Just few days into these demonstrations, Omar Suleiman (who is 70+) was appointed the vice-president of Egypt. In a country where the vice-president is seen as the strongest candidate for succession, the appointment of Suleiman signals that Gamal's candidacy is extremely unlikely.But the appointment of Suleiman could just be an eyewash.

God save this beautiful country.
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Old 31st January 2011, 14:26   #27
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Default Re: Egyptian crisis : my two piastres

>>>

My two piastres.

1. I am surprised that an overtly political topic is being discussed here, especially as the debate might raise strong opinions

2. The political situation in the north African Arab states ( viz. Tunisia, Egypt, Libya et. al) and India is very difficult to compare because of various reasons, such as :

i. absence of democracy and democratic institutions in north Africa ( the cynical amongst us might laugh but it is a fact that India has regular elections and that bad governance does not go unpunished for along; we have serious issues -governance deficit/corruption, disparities of incomes and opportunities and many others), a free media, a fairly large middle class, and a relatively professional financial services market apart from an independent judiciary

ii. a secular polity in India which is accepted by all political parties as opposed to a religio-cultural-ethnic polity there

Democracy and the establishment of democratic institutions, with autonomy of action is an important reason as to why we have had some semblance of progress, as compared to say, our volatile neighbourhood.

The deliberate abeyance of religio-ethnic-cultural-lingusitic symbols in public life is critical to the survival of India as a nation, ( which our founding fathers right from the times of Raja Ram Mohun Roy right through Manmohan Singh have understandably pursued) with the hope and expectation among all strata of society that things will get better for all, and not for a favoured few, is important for India's continued (peaceful) rise.

Regards, drive safe, pay your taxes
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Old 31st January 2011, 14:28   #28
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

Egypt , Tunisia , Jordan etc were pressure cooker on simmer with no outlet for releasing the pent up passions. In case of India there is a release mechanism in form of General elections and also state and local bodies election.
For last 60 years these elections has served the purpose of letting off the steam. Only once in 1975 Indira Gandhi proclaimed emergency and tried to lid it and there was a blast. So have no fear if pressure in the cooker is reaching dangerous level politicos of UPA will call election thinking it may work and then will choose to be out of power for next 5 year max rather then endangering their life and money of their progeny in a revolution. . This once in while rotation of power also gives a fair chance for others to make money.


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If Mubarak resigns and the opposition takes charge it is curtains for Israel's existance.
If Mubaraks fall does not mean Israel's fall by any stretch of imagination. the resolve, system and brain power Israel is the main cause it exists in hostile neighborhood. If it was a 6 day war in 1972 there may be a 2 day war in 2011 - 2012 at the most.

Read Oh Jerusalem when you have chance will give a right perspective on resolve and mentality of Arabs and Immigrant Jews in 1948 sadly Arabs have not changed much in last 60+ years.

Last edited by amitk26 : 31st January 2011 at 15:00.
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Old 31st January 2011, 14:33   #29
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Default Re: Crisis in Egypt : Is India also headed in that direction?

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If we are talking about ElBaradei, yes as an independent and a neutral figure he could be the best bet Egypt will have. But if its the Muslim Brotherhood that gains control, god only knows what will happen!
+1 to that.

El Baradei looks as the best bet if Mubarak falls but he is not a favorite of the Americans & Israelis though.

The Islamic Brotherhood and other opposition parties have authorized him to negotiate on their behalf if there is an interim transition govt.

The worst case scenario would be Muslim Brotherhood calling the shots in the new Govt which has El-Baradei as it's face.

Whoever comes in place of Mubarak is sure to provide more support to the Palestinian cause and I'm sure that without Mubarak in charge the Gaza blockade is all but dead.

I'm sure the Israelis would be busy reworking their war strategies

Edit - Amit, I agree that Israel existence is not an issue at all. They are smart & brainy enough to stay afloat. I doubt Israel's capability to finish a War in 2 days though. Israel had become complacent and that was out in the open during the 2007 Lebanon conflict. But as I said earlier the Israelis are smart and I'm sure that the IDF would be better prepared after the Lebanon fiasco.

Last edited by lloydofcochin : 31st January 2011 at 14:37.
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Old 31st January 2011, 14:45   #30
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Default Re: Egyptian crisis : my two piastres

Quote:
Originally Posted by issigonis View Post
>>>

My two piastres.

1. I am surprised that an overtly political topic is being discussed here, especially as the debate might raise strong opinions

2. The political situation in the north African Arab states ( viz. Tunisia, Egypt, Libya et. al) and India is very difficult to compare because of various reasons, such as :

i. absence of democracy and democratic institutions in north Africa ( the cynical amongst us might laugh but it is a fact that India has regular elections and that bad governance does not go unpunished for along; we have serious issues -governance deficit/corruption, disparities of incomes and opportunities and many others), a free media, a fairly large middle class, and a relatively professional financial services market apart from an independent judiciary

ii. a secular polity in India which is accepted by all political parties as opposed to a religio-cultural-ethnic polity there

Democracy and the establishment of democratic institutions, with autonomy of action is an important reason as to why we have had some semblance of progress, as compared to say, our volatile neighbourhood.

The deliberate abeyance of religio-ethnic-cultural-lingusitic symbols in public life is critical to the survival of India as a nation, ( which our founding fathers right from the times of Raja Ram Mohun Roy right through Manmohan Singh have understandably pursued) with the hope and expectation among all strata of society that things will get better for all, and not for a favoured few, is important for India's continued (peaceful) rise.

Regards, drive safe, pay your taxes
As for your first point, i think this goes beyond politics; we are talking about the daily lives and basic rights everyone is entitled to.
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