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Old 16th March 2010, 11:24   #31
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Hi Dharmesh,
Thanks for starting such a fantastic and unusual thread. The facts in the links you supplied are heavy to digest at one go and will need extensive reading.
Just to further the discussion, some things I gleaned:
1. The peak oil theory article says all countries are on the declining side of the peak except Kuwait, Iraq and S Arabia (these hitting the peak within next 2-4 years).
2. The world oil (as per US Petroleum Institute) reserve may finish between 2062 and 2094 (with some assumptions regarding consumption rate).
3. Biofuel is alternate fuel to replace fossil fuel and requires land to cultivate. Even if we assume that Jatropha could grow on not-so-fertile land, we have to factor that cultivated crops would be sacrificed for profit in fuel crops.
4. As population continues to grow, more food would be required.
5. Juxtaposed, points 3 and 4 suggest that a balance would need to be arrived at, to prioritize.
My 2 cents from all this:
1. Humanity has always depended on readily available resources, coal and oil, for energy and these are limited in quantity and non-regenerative(don't know the right word).
2. Even considering conversion to Biofuels in near future, we would just switch from being dependent on an oil well to being dependent on land (cultivated with oil seeds etc) and that is limited too. The question is, is the regenerative capacity of sparable land enough (apart from already cultivated land and the land set aside taking into account growing food requirements) to act as a reliable replacement to match the crude oil extraction and supply rate? If not, what might be the difference?
3. Biofuels would be a crop and dependent on the rain, land fertility reduction over repeated crops etc (if to a much lesser extent than other crops?) and likely to sway widely in the production rate affecting economies?
4. Agriculture itself requires lot of fuel for transportation and operation of machinery and so would biofuel. Is this counted in the trade-off between requirement and availability?

With all these points, what is the viability of biofuels being the right replacement to fossil fuel on a lasting basis?

The peak oil curve has an exponential drop. This may mean a critical production drop (to trigger a worldwide crisis) well before the depletion dates of 2062-2094. Apocalyptic theories abound in this regard with books and movies (remember Mad Max?). Considering it takes us about 200 years to deplete crude oil (since the beginning of IC engine?), the most consumtion concentrated in the later years (so called development requiring energy-intensive lifestyle), what would be the fate of earth's soil if we use biofuels as an alternative?

What would be the estimated cost of technology migration to suit biofuels when most engines are designed to use the exisitng fuels? Isn't this a major lobby factor?

With the developed nations' currrent stance on climactic change to not even do the basic to cut emissions, how much importance does the oil crisis portend in politics and what is the predicted timeline when positive action (read a** saving last ditch maneouvre) to battle these may be triggered?

Many more questions come to mind but this is already a big post.

Last edited by Delta Wing : 16th March 2010 at 11:26.
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Old 17th March 2010, 21:02   #32
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hi,plz let me know technical & legal procediurs of starting a bio diesel fuel station in kerala region
regards manoj ambattu
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Old 28th March 2010, 23:49   #33
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Originally Posted by maddy42 View Post
Thanks man. This helped a bit.

I agree to one point that labor laws in india are not very strict and farm labor is not paid alot but think about it.
Paddy sells at 750 for 100 kilos. Its very un economical at times. The costs we expect would raise and still we get the same price.

Anyways sorry on being off topic.

@Dharmesh: Is Palm cultivable in flood regions? What about Jatropa?
Maddy: You are welcome. If I get good queries, I try to revert back with my best efforts.

Regarding labor laws & labor compensation, it depends with which other place you are comparing India. India's biggest asset is its population. We can't dream of using so many skilled people at many businesses abroad but that is possible in India due to low wages & high level of skills. We don't start our weekend on Friday & don't shout from our roofs "Thank God its Friday". If people plan properly, they will definitely earn well from land but it has to be a good piece of land. Contract farming is another good option for people who got good land & don't know how to handle it. Suggesting to tell your people back home to send someone to a good college for "Agri Management course". IIM-A offers one such PG course but admission is tough & placements are for sure

Now your specific question about Palm, what do you mean by flood regions? Though I am not Agronomy expert but I do enjoy great company of some higly experienced Agri experts & they do talk in terms of "mm of water/rains" on yearly basis. So suggesting you to be specific. I can help you than. Palm is produced normally in Malaysia/Indonesia which enjoy heavy showers.

Your next query What about Jatropha does not make a sense. I do write elaborate replies so I deserve to expect properly explained Questions
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