ࡱ> q` _bjbjqPqP .r::W"jjjj$$"r3vvvvv$62222222$j4h63+vv++3vv,34/4/4/+vv24/+24/4/11v #ܩvj.^12B30r31\7/"\711\72 J04/"X'lJJJ33*/ JJJr3++++"""Df """f """  A survey of cars in emerging markets Theme and variations To succeed in emerging markets, rich-country carmakers have to tailor their strategies Nov 13th 2008 THE carmakers that have so far done best from the emerging-market boom are the ones that placed their manufacturing bets early on. That is partly because developing countries have used (and continue to use) high import duties either to protect fledgling indigenous manufacturers or to force global car firms to invest in the development of national motor industries. It is also partly because the car firms have learnt that they have to be on the spot in order to understand local conditions. Each BRIC market is different, and carmakers have had to employ different strategies to succeed in them. In China, for example, the government has until recently insisted that foreign manufacturers can set up shop in the country only through joint ventures with Chinese partners. It aimed to draw on the financial clout and technical expertise of the worlds biggest car companies as a shortcut to creating a Chinese motor industry that was not only capable of meeting home demand but also of becoming a big exporter. The bait to attract foreign carmakers was access to a huge potential market. The first to bite was Volkswagen (VW), which formed a joint venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) in 1984. Six years later it established a second partnership with First Automobile Works (FAW), based in the northern province of Jilin. By then the Santana (a version of the Passat) being produced in Shanghai was regarded as genuinely made in China. By the end of the 1990s VW was selling over 300,000 cars a year in China. VWs share of the market has fallen from a peak of 56% to around 18% today, but its volume has tripled. Despite slowing sales since July the firm still expects to sell more than a million cars in China this yearmore than it sells in Germany, and enough to justify its $10 billion investment. In this special report  HYPERLINK "http://www.economist.com/node/12544933" A global love affair  HYPERLINK "http://www.economist.com/node/12544947" The art of the possible  HYPERLINK "http://www.economist.com/node/12544893" The home team Theme and variations  HYPERLINK "http://www.economist.com/node/12544913" Kings of the road  HYPERLINK "http://www.economist.com/node/12544923" Pile them high  HYPERLINK "http://www.economist.com/node/12544961" Sources and acknowledgments  HYPERLINK "http://www.economist.com/node/12546965" Offer to readers Showing unusual fleetness of foot, GM followed VW into the Chinese market in the mid-1990s by forming a joint venture of its own with SAIC. Like VW, it has prospered by establishing its brands (especially Buick) and its distribution network before other foreign firms rushed into the market, and with a 10% share is now second only to VW. Last year GM sold twice as many Buicks in China as it did in America, where the brand is considered a bit staid. But the competition is getting more intense. Despite a late start, Toyota, with its main partner, FAW, is threatening to topple GM from its second spot in China and is aiming to produce 1m units by 2010. Another relative latecomer is Nissan. With Dongfeng Motor, it has been producing cars since 2004 from a new integrated factory at Huadu near Guangzhou that can churn out 360,000 a year. This year Nissan added a 6,140-square-metre (69,000-square-foot) training centre for its dealers, a bow to the growing importance of service in a market where consumers have more models to choose from than in America. In theory foreign carmakers are no longer legally obliged to work through joint ventures in China, but in practice they still do. Adrian Hallmark, VWs head of sales in Asia, explains that a few years ago VW had an opportunity to pull out of one of its joint ventures but decided against it: When you dont have the cultural and political connections, it is suicidal to go it alone. Over time, he says, VWs partners, SAIC and FAW, are likely to emerge as powerful companies in their own right and will have benefited from the experience of working with VW. He sees no reason why they should want to abandon the joint ventures if they continue to work well for both parties, which he believes they will. Chinese customers, says Mr Hallmark, will always want to buy the best products, so the foreign brands should continue to do well from market growth. Nick Reilly, the head of GMs Asia-Pacific operations, concedes that joint ventures are never easy to manage and that many fail. The moment it ceases to be a win-win for both sides, it will go, he says. Your partner must do well too. GM puts a lot of effort into its relationship with SAIC. Its chief executive, Rick Wagoner, meets up with his Chinese counterparts at least three times a year. Mr Reilly is also philosophical about the inevitable transfer of intellectual property to its partner, saying GM does not want to be too precious about it. He concedes that there could be tensions when SAICs own brands, such as Roewe, start competing directly with GMs, but says that money will still be coming in from royalties and components. All the foreign carmakers are well aware that the Chinese government is prepared to play a long game. For now and for the foreseeable future the foreigners are part of the plan, but when a handful of potential winners emerge from among the local champions life might well get more complicated. In the end, says one senior foreign car executive, it will come down to politics. It always does here. All Brazilians now There are no such fears in Brazil. The Brazilian market is still dominated by the four firms that have been there longestGM, Ford, VW and Fiatand they have always managed without local partners. Last year their combined share of a market of 2.45m light passenger vehicles was 80%. At Fiats Betim factory near the industrial city of Belo Horizonte in Brazil a new car rolls off the production line every 20 seconds. To meet surging domestic demand for new cars, Fiat, the market leader in Brazil, is working Betim flat out, three shifts a day. It is one of the most productive car factories in the world, capable of churning out 800,000 vehicles a year. The biggest concern for Cledorvino Belini, head of Fiats operations in Latin America, is that the furious pace of production is putting the complex just-in-time logistical system under strain. Cars awaiting transfer fill every corner of the 2.25m-square-metre (24.22m-square-foot) site, and new unloading bays are being constructed at breakneck speed to accommodate the endless flow of trucks delivering the parts.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/20081115/4608SR2.jpg" \* MERGEFORMATINET Churning them out at Betim Fiat, which began manufacturing in Brazil 32 years ago, allows its Brazilian arm a lot of autonomy. All its senior managers are Brazilian. They say they want Fiat to be seen as a Brazilian brandan ambition they back up by sponsoring the shirts of no fewer than ten of Brazils best football teams. VW is even more of a veteran, having been in the country for 55 years. Although the top management is mostly German, it claims that Brazilians have strongly identified with the VW brand since the days when the Beetle was the countrys most popular car. More than 3m were produced at the firms giant Anchieta factory near So Paulo between 1959 and 1986. With import taxes still at a swingeing 35% and other car taxes averaging more than 30%, depending on engine size and type, vehicle makers have little choice but to manufacture in Brazil. There was a time when Brazilians could be offered discontinued models from Europe, but apart from the very cheapest cars that is no longer acceptable. Both Fiat and VW now make some of their newest cars in Brazil, including some produced specially for the Brazilian market, such as the Fiat Palio and VW Gol. Both are rugged and small but roomy cars with a range of flex-fuel engines that run on any combination of ordinary petrol and cane-based ethanol. The development of flex-fuel engines is the most striking example of the carmakers willingness to invest to meet the Brazilian markets particular needs. The technology was developed by the Brazilian arm of Magneti Marelli, a wholly owned subsidiary of Fiat, and Robert Bosch, a German component-maker that has a close relationship with VW. Both car firms began equipping their vehicles with flex-fuel engines in 2003, and now such engines power nearly every car being made in Brazil. About half the fuel used by cars today in Brazil is ethanol. For ordinary Brazilians the attraction is that it sells for little more than half the price of normal petrol, although its range is slightly shorter. The government is also keen on ethanol because the industry employs over a million people, saves on imports and provides insurance against high oil prices. It is also relatively clean, producing lower well-to-wheel emissions than petrol, unlike the corn-based ethanol being sold in America; and it is sustainable, taking up only 2% of land currently in agricultural use.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/20081115/CSR281.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Both Fiat and VW emphasise the need to develop their cars locally. Bumpy, unmetalled roads call for good ground clearance and heavy-duty suspensions. Cars designed for European conditions would fall apart in just a few months in Brazil, says Fiat. Both makers have recently taken to producing what are known as SUV-lite versions of ordinary cars. There is a tough-looking Palio Adventure and a beefed-up small VW hatchback called the CrossFox. But the market is dominated by fairly spacious cars with small engines. Cars with engines up to one litre attract a lower level of purchase tax, making them the choice of more than half of Brazilians buying a new car. Cheapest of the lot is a Brazilian version of Fiats Uno, the Mille. Although it falls some way short of modern safety standards, the Mille has racked up sales of more than 2m in Brazil and is still going strong. The biggest worry for Brazils big four is that the car business is rapidly becoming more competitive. Two French makers, PSA Peugeot Citron and Renault, took nearly 8% of the market last year, followed by the Japanese, led by Toyota and Honda. Toyota is building a second factory in So Paulo that will come on stream in 2010 and produce a smaller, cheaper car than the Corolla it currently makes. The South Koreans are beginning to take an interest too. Jackson Schneider, the president of ANFAVEA, a trade body, predicts that by 2013 Brazil will be the worlds sixth-biggest car producer, turning out more than 5m cars, 4m of them for the domestic market. Still guzzling in Russia The rapid rise in oil prices that dragged most vehicle markets down this year had the opposite effect in Russia. Thanks to abundant natural resources the economy has grown at an average of 7% a year for the past decade and only now shows some signs of flagging as commodities prices drop. In the past five years real disposable incomes have doubled. Speaking earlier this year, Heidi McCormack, GMs head of business development in Russia, noted that compared with more developed markets Russia had been magically isolated. When the economy began to recover from the crisis of the late 1990s, Russians, scornful of their own car industrys Soviet-era products, began buying ever more used imported cars. In 2002 they snapped up nearly 500,000 of them, mainly from Germany and Japan. Even quite elderly VWs and Toyotas were a revelation of modernity, quality and price compared with the Ladas of AvtoVAZ and the Volgas of Gaz. In response to desperate pleas from Russian carmakers the government agreed to slap a steep duty and VAT on imported cars to choke off the supply. However, the domestic carmakers were in no position to take advantage of the breathing space. Three years later new imports were taking nearly half the market, despite high duties. Impatient with the local firms but determined to revive its domestic industry, the government in 2005 passed a law designed to entice foreign manufacturers to assemble their products in Russia. To qualify for relief from import duty, foreign carmakers had to build a factory with a capacity of more than 25,000 vehicles a year and invest at least $100m. Within five years the local content of each car had to reach 30%. But unlike in China firms were not required to establish partnerships with local producers. The pioneers in Russia have been Ford and GM. In 1999 Ford dipped a toe in the water with a small assembly plant near St Petersburg, and in the same year GM went for a seemingly risky joint venture with AvtoVAZ (at the time a byword for corruption and gangsterism) to produce an improved version of the Niva, a cheap SUV. More recently others have joined the scramble. Renault, as part of a deal with Moscows city government, took over an old Moskvich factory in 2004 to build its low-cost Logan, and VW in 2006 began construction of a new factory in Kaluga, 120 miles (190km) south-west of Moscow, where Mitsubishi and PSA Peugeot Citron are also setting up. Most of the others have gone to the St Petersburg area, where Ford and GM have been steadily expanding their capacity. Toyota is now producing Camrys there and will soon be joined by Nissan, Suzuki and Hyundai. St Petersburg owes its popularity to its ice-free port, good rail links and well-educated workforce, as well as the can-do approach of the governor, Valentina Matviyenko, who has promised to turn the city into Russias Detroit. Much of the traffic on the 450-mile road to Moscow is made up of car transporters. GM and Ford still have about 20% and 10% respectively of the market, but competition is hotting up. By 2012 ten of the worlds biggest car companies will be manufacturing up to 1.6m vehicles a year in Russia, with a large components industry growing up around them. Eduard Faritov, an analyst at Renaissance Capital, an investment bank, thinks that Russians will be buying nearly 5m new cars a year by then, and 80% of them will be foreign brands. Nigel Brackenbury, head of Fords operations in Russia, notes that for most of the past decade foreign brands have mopped up all the growth in the market. Ford, he says, now sells more cars in a week than it did in a year when it first started out. Over time Mr Faritov expects the foreign manufacturers based in Russia to supply an increasing proportion of the market as their capacity increases. New imports will continue to make up a large segment of the market, but will be concentrated at the top end and in niche markets. The future of the biggest domestic maker, AvtoVAZ, will depend on the outcome of a joint venture with Renault sealed this year in which the French firm acquired a 25% stake for $1 billion. What Indians want Few joint ventures between a local firm and a foreign manufacturer have been as enduring and profitable as that of Maruti of India and Suzuki, a Japanese small-car specialist. Set up in the early 1980s as a government project to produce a cheap modern car for middle-class Indians, Maruti Suzuki still dominates the Indian market, with a 54% share in 2007-08. Indians still think of Maruti as an Indian company, but the companys range now consists almost entirely of modern Suzukis, such as the best-selling Alto and the more expensive Swift. With 54% of the equity, the Japanese company is firmly in the driving seat. A more recent success story is that of Hyundai, one of many foreign manufacturers that entered the Indian market after the economy was liberalised in the 1990s. Faced with an import duty of 91% on small cars assembled from semi-knock-down and 31% even for assembly from complete knock-down, Hyundai, in common with its foreign rivals, decided to move straight to full manufacturing in India. But it did so on a much grander scale than others, investing an initial $1.2 billion there. A decade ago Hyundai began production of the Santro, a small car with a high roofline for added space, from a state-of-the-art factory on the outskirts of the southern city of Chennai. The South Korean firm now occupies second place in the market with an 18% share, pushing Tata Motors, Indias only big entirely indigenous maker, into third place with 14%. Hyundai Indias managing director, Heung Soo Lheem, claims that Hyundai is the only car firm in India to manufacture a complete range of cars locally. At the end of last year it doubled its capacity to 600,000 units with the opening of a second assembly line to build an important new car, the i10. According to Mr Heung, this is the first fruit of Hyundais decision to make India its world production centre for cars under 1.5 litres. Up to half of the i10s produced will be exported. M. Inderjith, the factorys manager, says that means the quality will have to be world-class. The car is already on sale in Europe, where it has won excellent reviews. For India it is also a step forward in sophistication at an important price point. Even basic models selling for 350,000 rupees ($7,000, or just over 4,000) have air-conditioning and tinted glass (airbags and anti-lock brakes are reserved for more expensive versions). Although the i10 factory is highly automated, low labour costs still make it 10% cheaper to manufacture in India than in Korea.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/20081115/CSR282.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  GM has doubled its sales in the past year, growing even faster than Hyundai, though from a lower base. But what is winning over the Indians is not GMs American or European models but the small, cheap cars badged as Chevrolets and made in Gujarat by its South Korean subsidiary, Daewoo. Ford, which has invested only a relatively modest $150m in the country, has struggled to build up a significant volume, despite its early arrival in India. It offers the Ikon, a saloon based on an old Fiesta platform which is sold only in India, as well as a more up-to-date booted version of the Fiesta and the chunkily styled Fusion, but its Indian production this year will be only about 35,000 units. Michael Boneham, an Australian who has been sent to turn round Fords fortunes in India, expects this to change soon. Between now and 2010 Ford will spend $500m, doubling its capacity to 200,000 units and developing a new small car to compete with Chevrolets Spark and Hyundais i10 in the 300,000-500,000 rupees price range that accounts for nearly 70% of car sales in India. Mr Boneham says that with greater choice Indian customers have become more demanding, expecting even fairly low-cost cars to be well specified. Getting costs down to the lowest possible level is only the first, albeit essential, step to providing the right quality and value. Like Hyundai, Ford intends to export its new small car in quantity, mainly to the Asia-Pacific region and parts of Africa. Five lessons What wider lessons can the worlds car companies learn from their experiences in the four markets that will provide most of their growth in the years to come? The first is that they must show commitment. Getting there early brings big advantages, but they have to be built on. Fiat has done well in Brazileven though it arrived after Ford and GMbecause it understood the market better, trusted its local management and invested heavily. Hyundai and Ford pitched their tents in India at about the same time, but Hyundai took the countrys potential far more seriously and is reaping the benefits. The second lesson is that no single business model works in every country or for every company. In China the ability to manage joint ventures has paid off handsomely for VW and GM. To make up ground in China, the Japanese, never previously comfortable in joint ventures, are having to learn new skills and be more relaxed about the transfer of intellectual property. In Russia most of the new foreign-brand entrants, except for Renault and Fiat, are going it alone. Both firms wooed AvtoVAZ when others decided to give the Russian carmaker a wide berth. Although Fiat lost that contest, it has teamed up with another local company, Severstal Auto. The third lesson is that local conditions and local tastes must be catered for when adapting existing models that have done well in mature markets. In Brazil and India that has meant building small, fuel-efficient cars that are also spacious and rugged enough to withstand bad roads and some of the worlds most vicious speed bumps. In China it has meant indulging newly affluent and highly status-conscious customers who like biggish saloons with smart interiors and lots of gadgets but are less interested in performance because there are few decent roads outside the big cities. Russians, for their part, love SUVs in all shapes and sizes. Even though most owners never leave Moscow or St Petersburg, they like the idea of a go-anywhere vehicle that can take Russian winters in its stride. The fourth lesson is that although their tastes may differ, BRIC customers are no longer prepared to put up with outdated or inferior offerings unless they are very cheap indeed, like the Fiat Mille in Brazil or the Maruti 800 in India. Specialist magazines, the internet and, above all, increasing competition among the manufacturers have greatly raised buyers expectations in just a few years. The final lesson is not to get carried away by big numbers. Although it seems almost certain that sales will grow on a scale never seen before, the sheer intensity of the competition may make large profits elusive. China is already on the verge of profitless growth. Last year average prices fell by 5.7% and now a new wave of price-cutting is under way to boost flagging demand. Dealers in China increasingly depend on financial contributions from the manufacturers to make any money on sales of new cars. As Sergio Marchionne, the boss of Fiat, recently remarked: When it comes to China youre either damned if you do or damned if you dont. 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