[maddy42]

Is mumbai local profitable? Does it make financial sense running it?

http://www.firstpost.com/india/mumba...r-2354070.html

I know this is not a apt comparison between financial viability and greater good, but the most dense city with the most dense traffic and still not making a profit shows the rot in the system. Take a microscope on any of the public projects of our country and you will see a lot of skeletons fall out.

Also as a example: The fastest train in the US is the Acela express. The one way fare for a DC-Boston journey is $310. I did the same route on a flight at $200 round trip.

Maddy

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by maddy42

Is mumbai local profitable? Does it make financial sense running it?

Mumbai locals do not run to make financial sense. Heck, even Indian Railways subsidizes passenger fare and just manages to compensate from freight and other commercial revenues.

Just have a look at Mumbai suburban train fare: CST to Thane is Rs. 15. In comparison, going by road taking an auto will cost minimum Rs. 450. Taking a non-AC bus will cost around Rs. 40 in comparison. And we all know which is the fastest mode to cover the distance. I am not even talking about how monthly / quarterly season ticket is dirt cheap and probably half the travellers don't even buy tickets.

Certain government services like local trains and buses run not with the objective of earning profit but to serve citizen. On the other hand, bullet train aims to offer alternate mode of transport to those who can pay for that hence lessening the burden on trains.

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by maddy42

In other news china restarted its 350kmph train. Their network is currently over 20000 kms of highspeed rail.
https://learningenglish.voanews.com/...s/4016377.html
Maddy

Stat says they have currently over 20000 kms of high speed rail and therefore India should get into the game so that we are not left behind, never mind that we can't even manage our slow speed railway without multiple fatal accidents every month. What stats do not tell you is that their high speed technology is mostly their own and is amogst the cheapest in the world. Not just buying stuff from outside also means that not only can they iteratively improve their existing infrastruture of non high speed trains but also sell their technology to the rest of the world since it is the cheapest by far. The only employment that bullet train project in India is going to generate will be low skilled construction jobs while if we worked on our own technology we would not only generate R&D jobs for our own engineers (we are second to none when it comes to frgual engineering) who knows how many other issues/problems we could have solved along the way.

I have absolutely no issues with India having a bullet train but we need to look at it in perspective. The project cost is for ONE section of bullet train with a technology that is completely incompatible with our existing rail infrastructure which is going to benefit 0.001 percent of the population. That is when flying is already an alternative on the said route. The same investment can bring our national railway network up to speed which is going to effect 99.99% of the population. Even if we were to double our average speed across existing infrastructure (which by the is a paltry 50-70 kmph for our Express Trains), we could cut the journey times to half for 99.99% of the train journeys undertaken in the country by 99.99% of the population. I still maintain spending so much, whatever the interest rate, on a novelty infrastruture reeks of nonchalance attitude and lack of foresight.

Even experts with credibility of E Sreedharan, the man credited with most impressive railway infra in our country. disagree. I rest my case.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/i...w/51046066.cms

[maddy42]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Stat says they have currently over 20000 kms of high speed rail and therefore India should get into the game so that we are not left behind, never mind that we can't even manage our slow speed railway without multiple fatal accidents every month. What stats do not tell you is that their high speed technology is mostly their own and is amogst the cheapest in the world. Not just buying stuff from outside also means that not only can they iteratively improve their existing infrastruture of non high speed trains but also sell their technology to the rest of the world since it is the cheapest by far. The only employment that bullet train project in India is going to generate will be low skilled construction jobs while if we worked on our own technology we would not only generate R&D jobs for our own engineers

Even if we were to double our average speed across existing infrastructure (which by the is a paltry 50-70 kmph for our Express Trains), we could cut the journey times to half for 99.99% of the train journeys undertaken in the country by 99.99% of the population. I still maintain spending so much, whatever the interest rate, on a novelty infrastruture reeks of nonchalance attitude and lack of foresight.

Even experts with credibility of E Sreedharan, the man credited with most impressive railway infra in our country. disagree. I rest my case.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/i...w/51046066.cms

Totally respect Mr Sreedharan for the heights he reached and bought a awesome infrastructure for our country but here is a link from him wanting the same high speed rail project for Kerala.

http://www.financialexpress.com/econ...l-link/215746/

I am not comparing any competition to China, just saying for countries our size High speed rail is a good mode of transport as it gets the country closer. Airplanes are a good mode of transport but short journeys under 2 hours trains are preferred. We need projects which needs to be focused on the future, and that's the only reason i am supporting this. Focusing on the slower trains and safety is also important and i hope the current govt is doing the due diligence for the same.

Also if anyone is interested in reading some Railway material, here is a analysis done 2 years ago by Bibek Debroy. Makes a interesting read. Its a 10 part series i believe.

https://swarajyamag.com/columns/rail...-competition-i

Maddy

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

The only employment that bullet train project in India is going to generate will be low skilled construction jobs while if we worked on our own technology we would not only generate R&D jobs for our own engineers (we are second to none when it comes to frgual engineering) who knows how many other issues/problems we could have solved along the way.

I am sure there will be more for India here than just low skilled construction jobs. BHEL is already going to manufacture the rolling stock. Also, Japanese companies in India may set up JVs here to benefit from low manufacturing costs to supply for bullet train. Going ahead, if and when more lines are commissioned we can foresee indigenous efforts, the way it is happening with metro.

The same investment can bring our national railway network up to speed which is going to effect 99.99% of the population. Even if we were to double our average speed across existing infrastructure (which by the is a paltry 50-70 kmph for our Express Trains), we could cut the journey times to half for 99.99% of the train journeys undertaken in the country by 99.99% of the population.

This is a theoretical assumption that similar investment can improve our existing railway network. Government is already working to increase speeds of several sections to 160 kph. All that is happening in such sections is removing level crossings, decreasing number of interchanges, fencing close to habitations, removing bends and turns etc. If you see here, none of these interventions are technological.

Upgrading the interlocking systems on busy sections itself will help in improving speeds than anything else. Then there's also the problem with passenger and freight trains sharing same line which doesn't help either of them.

The point being that while Indian railway needs investment, one can't just buy the fastest train-set and increase average speed from 50 to 100 kph. Railways is lagging behind not because of lacking funds, but because nothing significant happened all these years. Bullet train may not answer the problem of poor railway infrastructure but neither will diverting funds.

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

I am sure there will be more for India here than just low skilled construction jobs. BHEL is already going to manufacture the rolling stock. Also, Japanese companies in India may set up JVs here to benefit from low manufacturing costs to supply for bullet train.

Manufacturing to specification because of low cost workers is not a skilled job.

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

Going ahead, if and when more lines are commissioned we can foresee indigenous efforts, the way it is happening with metro.

Metro is cheap as chips in comparison and runs on basically the same vanila technology that any other Metro system in any other big city around the world runs on. It also addresses a real need - a fast and efficient urban transport solution which takes congestion away from the roads, reduces accidents, reduces pollution and saves journey times. There is a reason why not every country which has Metro also has a Bullet Train. I still maintain that bullet train is a niche technology and that we arent ready for it. The Delhi Metro serves almost 30 lakh passengers everyday, thats almost the entire population of India in a year, and costed us less than 3rd of what the 500 km Bullet train is going to cost. It also begs a question - whom is it going to benefit? And is that benefit worth the cost?

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

This is a theoretical assumption that similar investment can improve our existing railway network. Government is already working to increase speeds of several sections to 160 kph. All that is happening in such sections is removing level crossings, decreasing number of interchanges, fencing close to habitations, removing bends and turns etc. If you see here, none of these interventions are technological.

Upgrading the interlocking systems on busy sections itself will help in improving speeds than anything else. Then there's also the problem with passenger and freight trains sharing same line which doesn't help either of them.

Its not a theoretical assumption. It was mentioned in an article which said that the same investment can upgrade our whole railway infrastructure for the better.

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

The point being that while Indian railway needs investment, one can't just buy the fastest train-set and increase average speed from 50 to 100 kph. Railways is lagging behind not because of lacking funds, but because nothing significant happened all these years. Bullet train may not answer the problem of poor railway infrastructure but neither will diverting funds.

I never said that only having fast trains will improve the average speed. It is a combination of a lot of things including higher speeds. If there is no lacking of funds for railways then I wonder why are they lagging behind? How could they be just sitting on approved funds when there were more than 4 fatal derailments in a single month?

And if we do have funds, why do we need to take such a big loan from the Japanese? Why can't we spend less and get another bullet train system, namely the chinese technology?

[.sushilkumar]

Originally Posted by maddy42

I know this is not a apt comparison between financial viability and greater good, but the most dense city with the most dense traffic and still not making a profit shows the rot in the system. Take a microscope on any of the public projects of our country and you will see a lot of skeletons fall out.

Maddy

Just read your post and bingo. I was in for a "not" so surprise news. Off lately i have a feeling that govt is making policies for one particular business group.

First IUC charges reduction for telecom operators and now this after Dasault deal.

Bullet Train deall

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Manufacturing to specification because of low cost workers is not a skilled job.

While I may be wrong in my understanding, I would like to compare bullet train case with metro where we started with importing train sets when Delhi metro came up and are now exporting rakes made in India. I am sure local manufacturing capabilities have improved.

It also begs a question - whom is it going to benefit? And is that benefit worth the cost?

Over a period of time, high speed trains will no longer be as elite as they are. Common people travel by flights far more than they did 10 years ago. Modern airports which were built then, were for the affluent class are now being used by far more people.

If there is no lacking of funds for railways then I wonder why are they lagging behind? How could they be just sitting on approved funds when there were more than 4 fatal derailments in a single month?

Let me give an example of my tier 3 home town which is on Mumbai-Howrah train route. This is what happens till today. The section is triple line to handle the heavy rail traffic. However, there is a level crossing separating two major parts of town. Now, the crossing is closed for 15 minutes and there is crazy traffic. When it opens, it takes so much time for traffic to clear such that gate operator is unable to close gate for an approaching train which then has to wait for traffic to clear and gate to close.

This is what slows down trains and reduces the average speed. Till today, I guess it did not occur to anyone that trains cannot move fast when there are thousands of level crossings all over country. With all the funds, there was no attempt to remove level crossings.

And if we do have funds, why do we need to take such a big loan from the Japanese? Why can't we spend less and get another bullet train system, namely the chinese technology?

There are multiple high-speed rail sections under various stages of development. Mumbai-Ahmedabad is with Japanese, Chennai-Bangalore being evaluated by Chinese / German while French are doing studies for Delhi-Chandigarh.

The reason to start with Japanese instead of Chinese is same as why Chinese went with European instead of Japanese, not so friendly ties. But then, India needs China and China needs India so won't be surprising to see future high-speed trains coming through Chinese collaboration.

[norhog]

Originally Posted by .sushilkumar

Just read your post and bingo. I was in for a "not" so surprise news. Off lately i have a feeling that govt is making policies for one particular business group.



First IUC charges reduction for telecom operators and now this after Dasault deal.



Bullet Train deall

Why this negativity when it comes to Reliance.
Let's accept it here is a business group who made the most of the situation and made a success story out of it.
Also they have handsomely rewarded its share holders.
So what is it about Reliance industries that is so evil.
In that way all industries have time and often got their hands dirty some where.
About defense equipment supply it is always better that an Indian company supplies defense equipment as compared to a foreign. We all know what happens when we do not toe the line of such suppliers..sanctions!!
Now coming to railways, While our entire national railway system works on foreign technology why so much of hue and cry. ALSTOM, SEIMENS, BOMBARDIER, GE they are all here and supplying most of the things by way of tech transfer and other arrangements.
I have mentioned it in a few posts above.
Only they don't look smooth and shiny on the outside so we happily accept it to be Indian!!

If we can build enough HSR tracks we will free up the bottle neck in IR and improve it.
Also DFC is coming, which will further help the situation.
This is a one time cost, which even though will be painful, will stay here. The Japs are not going to come and take away the tracks and trains if we don't pay.
Also like I have been saying, let the tracks be built. We can then run HS or semi HS trains on them.
This will form a new set of tracks, straighter, faster and herald a new era for our heavy manufacturing industry.

[maddy42]

Originally Posted by norhog

Why this negativity when it comes to Reliance.
Let's accept it here is a business group who made the most of the situation and made a success story out of it.
Also they have handsomely rewarded its share holders.
So what is it about Reliance industries that is so evil.

ALSTOM, SEIMENS, BOMBARDIER, GE they are all here and supplying most of the things by way of tech transfer and other arrangements.

The foreign corporations mentioned above have one advantage over indian reliance, which is the owner is not bought up each time a deal is made with them! Everytime there is name calling against Jio, it almost feels like every rupee of the customers cash directly goes into the Owners wifes purse, but no where it is bought up that he spent around 10,000crores to get the company up and running across the country.

We have a huge accountability problem in the public space, which i dont think can be resolved soon, but its good to ask questions at the right spots and get the valid answers rather than assuming it. Anyone out here can start their own company and try to achieve a tie up with the Japs for the railways and i will personally be proud. But i do understand the questions being raised, that keeps the debate interesting.

My 2 cents.

Maddy

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

While I may be wrong in my understanding, I would like to compare bullet train case with metro where we started with importing train sets when Delhi metro came up and are now exporting rakes made in India. I am sure local manufacturing capabilities have improved.

There is a difference between being manufactured in India and being developed in India. We are manufacturing in India but that is only because of cheap labour. Its akin to manufacturing iPhone in China, does not make it chinese.

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

Over a period of time, high speed trains will no longer be as elite as they are. Common people travel by flights far more than they did 10 years ago. Modern airports which were built then, were for the affluent class are now being used by far more people.

And if we have to recover the cost plus repay the loan, the ticket prices will have to be priced above what the airlines charge and that too with a certain percentage of occupancy. If it is not as successful, we are looking at a costly mistake, a mistake which will again be funded by the tax payers like us.

As for common people flying, no its not the common people flying. Its what you would call the upper middle class. Infact our middle class is 24 million people but with lowest threshold to be called middle class. More reading here.

http://www.business-standard.com/art...2900181_1.html

Our real middle class, lower middle class and poor use railways day in and day out.

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

Let me give an example of my tier 3 home town which is on Mumbai-Howrah train route. This is what happens till today. The section is triple line to handle the heavy rail traffic. However, there is a level crossing separating two major parts of town. Now, the crossing is closed for 15 minutes and there is crazy traffic. When it opens, it takes so much time for traffic to clear such that gate operator is unable to close gate for an approaching train which then has to wait for traffic to clear and gate to close.

This is what slows down trains and reduces the average speed. Till today, I guess it did not occur to anyone that trains cannot move fast when there are thousands of level crossings all over country. With all the funds, there was no attempt to remove level crossings.

Havent you answered the question yourself? Do we need an investment to remove the level crossings or we need a novelty bullet train?

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

There are multiple high-speed rail sections under various stages of development. Mumbai-Ahmedabad is with Japanese, Chennai-Bangalore being evaluated by Chinese / German while French are doing studies for Delhi-Chandigarh.

Thats even more hair brained! If we have to have a network of bullet trains criss crossing the country, we can't have 10 different technologies working together. Bear in mind that these technologies are not compatible with one another and given we have committed to the technology from Japan this will be the case for most projects going forward.

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

The reason to start with Japanese instead of Chinese is same as why Chinese went with European instead of Japanese, not so friendly ties. But then, India needs China and China needs India so won't be surprising to see future high-speed trains coming through Chinese collaboration.

No, Chinese high speed rail technology is mostly their own. Its the same way they do not use Amazon because they created their own Alibaba, they do not use google because they use Baidu and they dont use Uber because they have didi chuxing.

While they are busy building their own technology, we are too happy to play the role of a cheap manufacturing destination and even for that we do not have the infra to move the stuff swiftly or enough port to send the ware throughout the world quickly. I can't stress how daft this whole idea of bullet train is.

[Sawyer]

There is considerable merit in the criticism of this project being expressed again now in light of the tragedy of the stampede at a railway station in Mumbai yesterday: that long delayed upgrades of existing infrastructure don't find the equally necessary money/attention, while glamour projects do.

The approach seems common to every kind of public spending/projects. This comes from some kind of wishful thinking that the existing nation and its tens of millions of struggling poor/unemployed have magically disappeared to give some illusion of a clean slate to write on, based on which the minority of the well to do - including the moneyed middle class like all of us here on this forum - dream of how we now are a superpower or will be so in as short a time as a decade.

[prasadee]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

There is considerable merit in the criticism of this project being expressed again now in light of the tragedy of the stampede at a railway station in Mumbai yesterday: that long delayed upgrades of existing infrastructure don't find the equally necessary money/attention, while glamour projects do.

Glamour entices politicians. Obviously money entices MNCs touting the pros of big projects. Objective analysis from neutral journalists with data from city planners, economists, and social scientists is certainly the need of the hour. It should not take these many lives to be lost to see the need to focus on infrastructure that touches as many lives as possible. It is heartbreaking. https://scroll.in/article/852397/nav...ampede-victims

I really like videos made by Scroll like this one with objective data about planned projects and roads in Mumbai. It shows that the projects that are pushed down the throats of the citizens are not necessarily in the best interest of the city, although it benefits a select few.
https://video.scroll.in/851603/video...its-congestion

[Sawyer]

Anyone that reads history will see frightening parallels.

France, in the decades before the French revolution in 1789, when the oppressed peasantry would no longer keep taking the abuses dished out to it by everyone from the King all the way down to all who were fortunate to be one class above the peasant masses.

Germany, in the two decades after the end of the first world war in 1919.

We are either blissfully ignorant of the possibilities of history repeating itself, or are eagerly waiting for that to happen. I don't see much notice being taken of the potential for conflagration around us.

[Sawyer]

We seem to be very willing to take up arms against fellow citizens on account of religion, caste, what they eat and the like but where we need to burn with rage - at the leadership and the bureaucrats - we are tolerant of even murder of innocent fellow citizens.

I applaud the culpable homicide case that has been brought against the railway authorities yesterday and I pray it gets the treatment it deserves in our justice system.

Every day 9 people die on the Mumbai commuter train system, in their daily effort to earn a living. Much less die on our borders and while every life matters, we seem to just pay lip service to this sentiment and move along in our communal apathy to our mistreatment and abuse by our leaders - with not ONE exception of that tribe seen in India till now.

The Bullet train nonsense has been shown up in stark colours, IMO. It takes a horrifying tragedy to do this, but in a couple of news cycles and after some condolence tweets by our leaders, all will be forgiven.

PS: I notice that the state CM made his comment on this "tragedy" while on a state visit to Singapore at tax payer expense. What could be more damning or ironical? But who notices or cares?