[AkMar]

A Lion Air Boeing 737 passenger plane with 188 people on board has crashed into the sea shortly after taking off from the Indonesian capital, Jakarta.

Flight JT 610 was on a scheduled flight to Pangkal Pinang, the main town in the Bangka Belitung Islands.

It lost contact with ground control a few minutes after take-off, and is believed to have ended up underwater.

There cause of the crash is not yet known and there has been no word yet of any survivors.

The plane was a Boeing 737 MAX 8, a brand new type of aircraft.

"The plane crashed into water about 30m to 40m deep," Search and Rescue Agency spokesman Yusuf Latif told AFP news agency. "We're still searching for the remains of the plane."

Items believed to belong to passengers have been found in the water, including ID cards and driver's licences, the search and rescue agency said on Twitter.

"We don't know yet whether there are any survivors," the agency's head, Muhmmad Syaugi, told reporters.

"We hope, we pray, but we cannot confirm."

Source

Flight radar track of the ill fated flight:

[BoneCollector]

Ironically this was a very new aircraft, a Boeing 737 MAX delivered only in August 2018.

There was something that went wrong during its last flight prior to crash which was rectified and the ill fated aircraft took off as JT610.

There was sudden loss of altitude with increase in speed which points to a free fall. What caused this can be ascertained only when block boxes are retrieved.

May the departed rest in peace.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by BoneCollector

Ironically this was a very new aircraft, a Boeing 737 MAX delivered only in August 2018.

Lion Air pilots somehow manage to crash brand new aircraft. Year 2013 incident:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_904



Till recently, Lion Air was banned from flying to EU because of poor safety record. The ban was lifted last year though

[PapaBravo]

Originally Posted by smartcat

Lion Air pilots somehow manage to crash brand new aircraft. Year 2013 incident:

Till recently, Lion Air was banned from flying to EU because of poor safety record. The ban was lifted last year though

Inadequate training on the newer Airframes can be a possibility. How info as to how many hours did the pilots have on 787-8s ?

[libranof1987]

Really tragic. May the departed rest in peace. Some information:

- Unlikely that there are survivors. In fact, one official has highlighted a gory situation
- PIC was an Indian national from Delhi

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/66414658.cms

The flight made a request to air traffic control to return to base about 12 miles out from takeoff, but did not indicate there was any emergency,

The plane, a new Boeing 737 MAX 8, had reported problems the night before on a flight from Denpasar to Jakarta Air Lion's CEO Edward Sirait told local media TV1 in an interview.
Sirait said engineers had checked and repaired the problem and reported that the plane was ready to fly.

The frogmen are searching in water up to 35 meters (114 feet) deep.

Relatively shallow waters then. But then at 200 knots, doubt there can be a chance for survival

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/28/a...ntl/index.html

[A350XWB]

Originally Posted by PapaBravo

Inadequate training on the newer Airframes can be a possibility. How info as to how many hours did the pilots have on 787-8s ?

What does a 787-8 has to do with this accident? The aircraft was a 737MAX-8. And according to the information available, the Indian captain had ~6000h and the Indonesian co-pilot had ~5000h of experience on the 737. Considering that the classic, NG and the MAX has the same type rating, I wonder about the training part. Also, there was a request from the captain to RTB (return to base), indicating some issue. I'd rather wait for the official report.

[balenoed_]

What are the probably causes that we can "speculate" at this moment?

The speedometer gone wrong? If so, it is just crazy that it will result in something like this.

[libranof1987]

Originally Posted by balenoed_

The speedometer gone wrong? If so, it is just crazy that it will result in something like this.

Not really considering incorrect airspeed was the reason AF447 (Airbus 330) crashed. The cause for incorrect airspeed in that and this crash might not be the same but it is entirely capable of bringing down the aircraft. Rather, incorrect reaction to this error is capable of bringing down the aircraft.

the aircraft crashed after temporary inconsistencies between the airspeed measurements – likely due to the aircraft's pitot tubes being obstructed by ice crystals

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447

Again, this is pure speculation based on the problem reported in the previous flight.

[aditya.86]

Apparently the aircraft has some instrumentation error from its previous flight from Bali to Jakarta. The airspeed and altitude readings were showing different readings for the FO and the Captain.

The actual cause of the crash can only be determined only once the black box is retrieved. Highly unlikely that a brand new 737 Max 8 which is so advanced to have such a major failure in the early stages of its flying.

We just need to wait for the official report.

[balenoed_]

Originally Posted by libranof1987

Not really considering incorrect airspeed was the reason AF447 (Airbus 330) crashed. The cause for incorrect airspeed in that and this crash might not be the same but it is entirely capable of bringing down the aircraft. Rather, incorrect reaction to this error is capable of bringing down the aircraft.

Well, While AF447 pilots lost it to the un-reliable air speeds, that has happened at 35,000 ft in pitch dark and unfavorable weather conditions and flying into thunderstorms.

Lion air had all the favorable conditions with a clear weather and daylight. Can't they visually verify if the a/c is flying faster or slower than what it is supposed to be with the given throttle inputs. It would be really unacceptable if pilots still cannot handle this scenario. (Note: It is only a speculation)

Some information emerging out of its penultimate flight:

"A technical log obtained by the BBC for that flight - from Denpasar airport in Bali to Jakarta - suggests that the airspeed reading on the captain's instrument was unreliable, and the altitude readings differed on the captain's and first officer's instruments.

As a result of the problem, the captain handed over control of the plane to the first officer, the crew continued their flight and they landed safely at Jakarta."

[A350XWB]

Originally Posted by balenoed_

Lion air had all the favorable conditions with a clear weather and daylight. Can't they visually verify if the a/c is flying faster or slower than what it is supposed to be with the given throttle inputs. It would be really unacceptable if pilots still cannot handle this scenario

How will you judge the IAS (Indicated Air Speed) of an aircraft, sitting inside one, even if the weather is clear and visibility is good? You cannot speculate an IAS value by seeing a reference point on the ground. In flight, it is the IAS that is important and not the ground speed. I'm not telling that this has anything to do with this particular accident. But human body gets fooled very quickly, when in air. That is the reason why Attitude, Air speed and Altitude indicators are said to be critical for flight and pilots are advised to trust the instruments when in doubt. It is very much possible to stall an aircraft in clear weather and visibility and that is why you have stall warnings and mechanisms like stick shakers available.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by A350XWB

But human body gets fooled very quickly, when in air. That is the reason why Attitude, Air speed and Altitude indicators are said to be critical for flight

I guess the word you are looking for is Spatial Disorientation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spatial_disorientation

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by A350XWB

How will you judge the IAS (Indicated Air Speed) of an aircraft, sitting inside one, even if the weather is clear and visibility is good? You cannot speculate an IAS value by seeing a reference point on the ground. In flight, it is the IAS that is important and not the ground speed. I'm not telling that this has anything to do with this particular accident. But human body gets fooled very quickly, when in air. That is the reason why Attitude, Air speed and Altitude indicators are said to be critical for flight and pilots are advised to trust the instruments when in doubt. It is very much possible to stall an aircraft in clear weather and visibility and that is why you have stall warnings and mechanisms like stick shakers available.

One of the first things you learn at flight school: planes can stall, any time, under any condition! Unfortunately, history shows that is still true to date!

Captain and Co-pilot have both a separate set of instruments with different sources, so a lot of redundancy built in. You can switch between sources and read outs etc. Next, there will also be a a third set of stand by instruments.

Pilots are trained to deal with unreliable instruments. They have standard operating procedures for figuring out what goes on, which instruments to trust etc.

yes, indicated airspeed is the most relevant one. But if all fails ground speed is also a good indicator as long as you are aware of your attitude and altitude. (ground speed is measured completely separate from air speed. These days usually from GPS and or IRS, or a mix of both.)

Pilots memorise air plane performance parameters and settings. So a pilot will know that whilst climbing at a certain angle of attack he will need to see certain numbers on the engine display (i.e. power settings)

So having to deal with unreliable instruments is something that should not cause undue problems. Of course, it has with AF44 being an extreme case where they got it wrong.

This case is very different because, as mentioned, because of the fact this happened during broad day light in good visibility.

We will just have to wait and see what the black boxes and voice recorders tell us. It should not be a huge effort to recover these in the next few days and get a first idea on what went wrong. This is a brand new plane with also, quite new engines. It would not be the first time that some major problems occur on a brand new model.

You can already see some suggestions made on some aviation forums along these lines. It is difficult to imagine why the pilots could not cope with a malfunction, any malfunction for that matter, under these circumstances. So the next suspect would be some massive fairly catastrophic problem with the plane. All speculation till we hear more. Boeing will be extremely eager to ensure its customers/passengers/aviation authorities there is nothing wrong with this plane. (or figure out what it is, if it appears to be the plane!)

Jeroen

[A350XWB]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

One of the first things you learn at flight school: planes can stall, any time, under any condition! Unfortunately, history shows that is still true to date!....

Totally agreed. All I wanted to say is that it's not as simple as "a speedometer malfunction" when it comes to an aircraft.

Originally Posted by Jeroen

Of course, it has with AF44 being an extreme case where they got it wrong.

Small correction, it was AF447


Below is the flight profile from the accident day and the next day. The accident flight never achieved the planned altitude after ~5000ft and kept fluctuating after that, until it went into the final dive.

[suresh_gs]

Originally Posted by smartcat

I guess the word you are looking for is Spatial Disorientation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spatial_disorientation

I can recall a similar accident pertaining to Air India 855 back in 1978. The cause for the accident was Spatial disorientation. The flight took a right turn upon take off and then became steady while the instrument stated that the plane was still banking to the right. To counter this, the pilot took a left turn hoping to steady the plane which resulted in the plane crashing into the Arabian sea.
Looks like the Lion Air crash is pretty similar to what I mentioned above.