[AirbusCapt]

Originally Posted by nikhilthegunner

Indigo will be fine. They've got huge cash reserves last I checked. Spicejet will have huge problems. Air India will definitely receive a bailout cause they need AI to be alive long enough for some gullible people to take control of it. Then it can collapse and the government wouldn't care.

Surprise surprise! Indigo may be the first to die. When your business model is to make money by large airplane orders and sale/leaseback, plus you put over 40% of your capacity in flying international routes which are sadly shut now, and you add two flights 5 mins before and 5 mins after your competitor's flight just to try and kill them, you tend to take up a lot of bad costs which are now coming home to roost. That 20000 crore nest egg doesn't seem large anymore when you ground 70 airplanes and will ground 110+ airplanes by weekend. A domestic load factor of around 50% with half your fleet on ground and prior commitment to take delivery at the rate of one aircraft per month is a perfect storm.
One more factor to consider is indigo's domestic route is not really domestic, it's a domestic feeder to lucarative international sectors for example Bangalore -Cochin-Dubai. Now with dubai gone, Bangalore cochin will not pull in much.

[fhdowntheline]

If this pandemic continues for a few more months and extracts a large toll on the countries ,I wonder whether that will really upend the global economic model as it were. This is certainly way beyond 911 or similar events. I believe that re-regulation and re-nationalization will be a focus for the next few decades to come, and highly globalised industries will no longer rule the roost. It will basically be each country to itself and its citizens, and ease of global travel will also be curtailed from a country de-risking perspective.

[sub.g84]

Working in the travel domain, and in an organization that helps run business for airlines worldwide, I can say that the times are very tough. And the upcoming days will be tougher.

On that note here is an interesting read that shows how the carriers worldwide are affected and how long they can survive:

https://skift.com/2020/03/18/see-the...-these-charts/

[riokiar]

There is also the issue with airport slots resulting in many airlines flying "ghost flights" to airports so as to not lose them.

[efgritesh]

In my opinion, the problem is bigger than just the airline industry.
Most likely the impact of this crisis will be felt for many years to come with cascading effect on most of the economic activity. A friend of mine is a hotelier and he mentioned that his hotel has asked most of the staff to avail unpaid leaves as there are no guests whatsoever.

Share market investments are long eroded and chances are that its going to be a long dawn before we can see rays of hope again.

[khanmaj]

It's becoming very clear that COVID-19 is impacting all types of industries, aviation and hospitality the most. There will be lay offs in every industry. I say, let the Darwinian Evolutionary theory be applied on every industry and their should not be any bailout to any one using tax payers money. Government should use tax payers money to improve health care and infrastructure not to bailout the badly managed corporate industries period!

[Chugh_H]

My wife works with Qatar Airways and tells me it's a bloodbath there! People are resigning and trying to flee to their home country as soon as possible and there are so many resignations (in the welfare department too) that there are not enough resources to handle it. Even when not serving notice period, it is taking as much 2 to 3 weeks to get an exit permit from the airline and get out of Qatar.
On the other hand, that is still not enough. The management is asking employees to volunteer for unpaid leaves and go home, some low performers have already been asked to take it or leave it. People who were out of Qatar for leaves or vacations when the HIA shut down, are also on unpaid leaves until further notice (some of them will be getting their basic pay though). In midst of all this, there still are some folks who are flying and doing European sectors as well. Bad times for airlines, really.

[Stribog]

In a cruel twist of fate, given oil prices are at a 18 year low (and falling), the airlines were in a good position to make a killing. Sadly though, Mr Corona came calling

[aniyo]

Airline seems to be the most shock prone industry, They are the first to get affected.
Be it a terrorist attack, Pandemic, natural calamity, recession. I wonder if the inherent nature of the industry is this way.

[spoth001]

My job profile demands me to develop Airport markets. Trust me it is just not the Airlines that are on the path to bloodbath. Airport SI's (Systems Integrator) who basically are providers of CUTE (common user terminal equipment), CUPPS (common use passenger processing systems) and DCS (departure control systems) to Airports and Airlines are foreseeing a loss mounting to 116 USD Billion very soon. This news is backed by IATA (International air transport association) top brasses. So it spreads down to bottom of the chain. Prominent Airport SI's are SITA, Collins Aerospace, Amadeus etc. I pray that this bloodshed ends soon and people resume flying (within 2-3 months from now).

Airports earn money when planes are docked at Airports. Planes earn money when they are in Air, that's the reality.

[Samurai]

This time democrats want to ensure that the airlines bailout will go the actual workers and not for share buybacks and corporate salaries.

https://twitter.com/SenSchumer/statu...88791817420804

[Zed]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Airlines is an industry that every self-respecting frequent flyer believes he knows and most certainly has an opinion on.

Question : Swap 'Airline' to 'Automotive' and 'frequent flyer' to 'auto enthusiast' and what have you .. ?

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by McLaren Rulez

I'm interested in yours!

Do you believe that both our government and those of other countries ought to be bailing out airlines (and also other industries)? Or is there merit to the viewpoint that such government intervention only encourages poor financial planning and risky behaviour among private corporations?

Originally Posted by pganapathy

Hands down no government should ever bail out any industry. I don't care how big it is. If it fails, let it die. Yes, it means job losses and a ripple effect to the economy, but governments are better off encouraging good industries to succeed, rather than weak and useless ones. Short term pain for long term gain I say

The industries that will be badly hit if this pandemic caused lock down lasts beyond 15th April will be not just the airlines but the entire chain linked to tourism and business travel and then more gradually Retail, Restaurants & Eating out, all forms of Transportation and Petroleum. Airlines are merely the tip of the arrow that have got hit first.

As for bail outs? Well!! What they will need is working capital i.e. cash to pay the bills, retain staff, keep the aircraft air worthy. I would be more in favour of relief from cash strain rather than bail outs. If we don't bail out our poor farmers then we shouldn't be bailing out industrialists. So deferring cash outflows on account of say GST, or dues to Air ports Authority by a few months would be in order. Not in favour of giving hand outs but saying we'll help your cash flows temporarily.

To the point in bold. It takes years to build a competent airline with its million engineering requirements, safety standards and compliances. Throwing it away simply to uphold a philosophy of laissez faire doesn't make sense either for the employees or the tax collector or the nation.

[BoneCollector]

As per this report on Flightradar24 there is a decline of 10% traffic of commercial airlines.

Commercial traffic 2019 vs 2020.

[pganapathy]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

As for bail outs? Well!! What they will need is working capital i.e. cash. Not in favour of giving hand outs but saying we'll help your cash flows temporarily.

To the point in bold. It takes years to build a competent airline with its million engineering requirements, safety standards and compliances. Throwing it away simply to uphold a philosophy of laissez faire doesn't make sense either for the employees or the tax collector or the nation.

I am OK with governments lending money at reduced interest and long repayment periods. What is not OK, is supporting industries by bailing them out. YES Bank is a perfect example.

If Laissez-faire was the government attitude we wouldn't have so many failing public enterprises. There is a reason the government is trying to privatise Air India and other public companies.

In my book, all the government should really do is three things. One, ensure an infrastructure in place. Two, ensure a level playing field for all enterprises. Three, have proper rules and enforce them effectively. The government shouldn't be in business.