[shortbread]

Originally Posted by vikasshu

Thanks for your long response. I raised only two concerns in my post.

2. My second point was around PAF's professionalism. I doubt them and think they have great PR power and know how to play with optics.

Rest no arguments about middle eastern air forces and back to main topic

Thanks & Regards

More than professionalism, the three main reasons Pakistani personnel are abundantly used are:

1) Cheap: UAE did try to diversify, recruited Canadians, South Africans, instead they cost a lot more. A retired Canadian engineer would charge four times that of a PAF one. Caucasian race demands much higher salaries in the middle east and the Arabs stick to this rule. So the most cost effective solution for them are Pakistanis.

2) Servitude mentality: Emirati officers wont get the same respect from ex forces of other nationalities in the same way Pakistani employees show it. Ex PAF personnel are obedient and do as they are told. If Emirati officers try their bullying antics towards say an American contractor, he will be put in his place.

3) Abundant supply: There are so many of them and they keep churning out more. This is a legit career choice in PAF and young officers start bowing nosing seniors to land a plum opportunity abroad, when nations come looking for cheap pilots.

Although a big disadvantage of using PAF mercenaries is that, countries like UAE, Saudi will not get their hands on cutting edge tech like the F35. In due course perhaps after a decade or two when the platform ages, maybe. But not now when US knows these jets will be flown by ex PAF pilots. May as well invite the Chinese to experience F35s first hand.

This is why Turkey was kicked out of the F35 programme. One major cause

Following the failed coup attempt, Erdogan govt started a cull within the Turkish defence forces targeting anyone whom they suspected of being part of the rebellion. Hundreds of THK pilots were imprisoned, hundreds fled the country, lo and behold Turkey has a severe pilot shortage. So who did they turn to? Yup PAF mercenaries!

UAE was never meant to get F35s, Trump dilly dallied and signed this deal in the last minute, knowing fully well the incoming defence dept will discard this.

Instead of being starry eyed about new fighters, Middle East govts. should invest and strengthen their puny navies. Considering the off shore petroleum assets they have, and that safe shipping routes are vital for their primary export protecting their coastline is of vital importance.

[V.Narayan]

Second flight of 3 Rafales arrives from France. Flies non-stop with air-to-air refueling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEcCDwPdTUA

Happy to see the Rafale's arriving. It is also a reflection of how depleted the IAF fast jet strength is that 3 aircrafts make news. Oh for the days of the 1980s where 30 to 40 used to get inducted in a year with barely a whisper. The flight underwent 3 air-to-air refuelings to cover the 3700 nm sortie. The first squadron will be based in Ambala, Haryana and the second at Hasimara, West Bengal. Deliveries will be completed by 2023.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...8.cms?from=mdr

[V.Narayan]

1:48 scale model of the Dassault Rafale EH; tail fin BS001

Scale model assembled by our member @basuroy of the first single seat Rafale of the IAF. At 1:48 the model, made of high grade plastic, is over 12 inches long and sports a wingspan of 9 inches. It is marvelously detailed and is seen here carrying a full suite of weapons - SCALP cruise missile on the centreline, 2 x laser guided bombs, 2 x medium range radar guided MICA air-to-air missiles and 2 x Infrared homing Magic air-to-air missiles and of course the two 1300 litre radius enhancing drop tanks.

It adorns a prize place in my home now. Now matter how old you get you cannot take the boy out of a man.

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Tangentially related news but the former head of the Dassault group Oliver Dassault has been killed in a helicopter crash. He stepped down from his role in the company when he became an MP. I wonder if the 4th generation are going to eventually find themselves leading the family firm.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56313271

[dragracer567]

France has approved the sale of 30 additional Rafale Jets to the Egyptian Air Force. Egypt already operates 24 jets and this would bring their total inventory to 54 Jets making Egypt the second largest operator of the Rafale after France. Qatar - another Rafale operator has 36 Jets with another 36 available as an option. Greece has 18 Jets in order.

I am a little stumped that the Egyptians could afford what has been billed as a ‘very expensive jet’ by the Indian defence establishment and commentariat. According to Al-Jazeera, the purchase is financed by a loan but absurd for a country like Egypt nonetheless, offcourse give their political system, no one will be questioning their government for extravagant expenses.

Source

[skanchan95]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

France has approved the sale of 30 additional Rafale Jets to the Egyptian Air Force. Egypt already operates 24 jets and this would bring their total inventory to 54 Jets making Egypt the second largest operator of the Rafale after France. Qatar - another Rafale operator has 36 Jets with another 36 available as an option. Greece has 18 Jets in order.

Egyptian fighter acquisitions has turned out to be one hell of a khichdi and possibly a logistical & maintenance nightmare. Look at their modern fighter fleet now - MiG-29M2, Su-35(soon), F-16, Rafale, Mirage 2000, with E-2s as AEW!!!! With air forces around the world opting to reduce fighter types in their fleet , Egypt is doing the exact opposite. Why would they do something like this is beyond my understanding. The way, however, they are trying to modernize their fleet pretty quickly is quite impressive.

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Originally Posted by dragracer567

I am a little stumped that the Egyptians could afford what has been billed as a ‘very expensive jet’ by the Indian defence establishment and commentariat. According to Al-Jazeera, the purchase is financed by a loan but absurd for a country like Egypt nonetheless, offcourse give their political system, no one will be questioning their government for extravagant expenses.

Well if you find that surprising surely you must've been floored when out of all the countries that could've become a home for the orphaned Russian Mistrals, France ended up selling them to Egypt! A country that at the time had no conceivable need for large LHDs such as that, especially not in the Mediterranean or for policing the Suez! Though in hindsight one could make the point about Turkish adventurism in the Med..

Anyway, Egypt has historically always been the leading military power in North Africa and far as I know they have continued to have the continents highest defence expenditure. Under a military dictatorship once more, you can't deny that there's likely to be some extra padding to any defence budget than normal. Should all combine to show where the money is coming from. Egypt like pretty much most countries has a whole heap of headaches on their plate, most pressing of which is the escalating tension over the Grand Ethiopian Dam - I won't be the least bit surprised to see further sabre rattling from the quite clearly panicked Egyptians. Expect state backed Egyptian media outlets to be working on pieces on how the new Rafale complement can aid any Egyptian move to strike at said Dam.

Actually come to think of it, since the break with America during the Obama administration and essentially Sisi's crackdown on Morsi and other Muslim Brotherhood members, Egypt has been on a bit of a military spending spree. Iirc the Egyptians plan to purchase attack helicopters to go with their Mistrals. I believe the Russians won with their Kamov offerings, both the Ka-52 and the Ka-29/31 family. They have orders for new German Type 209 submarines. In addition to the Rafale there's been on and off again reports the Egyptians have a deal in place for Su-35. So yeah, Sisi is doing as military leaders do - he's getting himself some shiny new toys to go in the backdrop of shiny posters extolling his virtues.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by skanchan95

Egyptian fighter acquisitions has turned out to be one hell of a khichdi and possibly a logistical & maintenance nightmare. Look at their modern fighter fleet now - MiG-29M2, Su-35(soon), F-16, Rafale, Mirage 2000, with E-2s as AEW!!!! With air forces around the world opting to reduce fighter types in their fleet , Egypt is doing the exact opposite. Why would they do something like this is beyond my understanding. The way, however, they are trying to modernize their fleet pretty quickly is quite impressive.

Reminds me of our own air force to be honest! Mig-29s, Su-30 MKis, Jaguars, Rafales, Mirage 2000s, Tejas and Mig-21s - quite the khichdi! Offcourse, we don't know if the Egyptians are good with Jugaad as the Indians are to network all these different types of jets together, quite the talent on the part of the Indians (with Israeli help, no doubt) given how western commentators wonder how the Qataris will operate a mixed fleet of Rafales, Eurofighters and F15s though all three are NATO jets.

Originally Posted by ads11

Well if you find that surprising surely you must've been floored when out of all the countries that could've become a home for the orphaned Russian Mistrals, France ended up selling them to Egypt! A country that at the time had no conceivable need for large LHDs such as that, especially not in the Mediterranean or for policing the Suez! Though in hindsight one could make the point about Turkish adventurism in the Med.

Actually come to think of it, since the break with America during the Obama administration and essentially Sisi's crackdown on Morsi and other Muslim Brotherhood members, Egypt has been on a bit of a military spending spree. Iirc the Egyptians plan to purchase attack helicopters to go with their Mistrals. I believe the Russians won with their Kamov offerings, both the Ka-52 and the Ka-29/31 family.

Indeed, I believe we had discussed about the Mistrals and the attack helicopters in the Naval aviation thread.

Moreover, doesn't it seem a bit of a coincidence that all the countries confronting Turkey in the Mediterranean have Rafales (France, Greece, and Egypt)? While the Indo-Pacific has been stealing the limelight, the Mediterranean is increasingly becoming a hotbed focus of geopolitics with numerous countries including relatively distant powers like Saudi and UAE claiming a stake, though the big two - US and China are conspicuously missing.

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Originally Posted by dragracer567

Moreover, doesn't it seem a bit of a coincidence that all the countries confronting Turkey in the Mediterranean have Rafales (France, Greece, and Egypt)? While the Indo-Pacific has been stealing the limelight, the Mediterranean is increasingly becoming a hotbed focus of geopolitics with numerous countries including relatively distant powers like Saudi and UAE claiming a stake, though the big two - US and China are conspicuously missing.

Much like the SCS is a prickly region thanks to China's Nine Dash Line shenanigans, what with all the artificial island building and fishing boats acting all bolshy, under Erdogan, Turkey has adopted a more prickly position in the eastern Mediterranean. First it was Turkey sending forces to aid the Libyan govt forces just before Gen Haftar was about to overrun Tripoli. In return for this timely aid, the Turks were able to come up with their own farcical line across the Med from Turkey to Libya claiming everything in between. It's such a joke. Anyway, you have a deputy president on TV giving interviews claiming the people of Turkey are anguishing for the return of islands currently under Greek control.
Basically much the same way Chinese behaviour is fuelling an arms race in eastern Asia and the Indo-Pacific, Turkey is driving the Greeks most particularly and to a lesser extent Egypt and Israel to also bolster their positions. This comes as Turkey wants to claim the rights to resource exploration in the area. Oh and don't forget the Turkish part of Cyprus also being a flashpoint. It's the backdrop of this Turkish aggression that has the Greeks request to join the F-35 programme (see: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ns-with-turkey). I can't imagine Erdogan is very popular in French circles after his polemics against the Republic in the aftermath of the murder of Samuel Paty. Not to mention his many vicious outbursts against the EU and EU leaders, and his favourite tool to threaten the bloc with: the flood of immigrants he states he'll release onto the continent. The French would probably gladly stick it to old Recep by selling those Rafales.

As for the Chinese not sticking their oar in with this Mediterranean nonsense - all I say is they haven't done so yet. I always chuckle at how far their adventurism goes. If China can claim they're a 'near Arctic-state' (I'm dead serious, look it up), and the fact you come across stories of Chinese fishing fleets as far afield as the EEZ of Argentina, what's to stop them wading in to the balmy waters of the Med?

Anyway, hopefully all this in the context of IAF Rafales should simply mean it could to some small degree go towards lower sustainment costs for future tranches if Dassault have more overall operators of the platform. Plus there's always the potential for joint drills. While I'm not sure about India's relationship with Cairo, the Hellenic Air Force could be an easy exercise partner, perhaps added as a third to joint drills currently with the Armee de l'Air.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by ads11

Anyway, hopefully all this in the context of IAF Rafales should simply mean it could to some small degree go towards lower sustainment costs for future tranches if Dassault have more overall operators of the platform.

That's the nail in the coffin, larger orders will help reduce the overall costs of an aircraft rather than buying small numbers of multiple aircraft. According to Reuters, the 30 jets cost about $4.5 billion for Egypt while the 24 jets bought earlier cost about $5.9 billion i.e more jets for less money. This is because we remove certain non-recurring costs like those for training, basing changes and country-specific changes (which reportedly cost 1.3 billion euros for India, not sure about others) etc for follow-up orders. For comparison, the Indian 36 rafales cost about $9.4 billion all-in according to DW news. So the only way to decrease the cost per jet is by buying more Rafales and rationalizing the fleet. The revived MMRCA is a joke anyway, how is an F-15EX a competitor for a SAAB Gripen E?

As for the Chinese not sticking their oar in with this Mediterranean nonsense - all I say is they haven't done so yet. I always chuckle at how far their adventurism goes. If China can claim they're a 'near Arctic-state' (I'm dead serious, look it up), and the fact you come across stories of Chinese fishing fleets as far afield as the EEZ of Argentina, what's to stop them wading in to the balmy waters of the Med?

I was indeed taken aback by how aggressively they went into the EEZs of South American countries (supposedly their allies) with Ecuador being the worst affected, the Chinese fleet started fishing in the waters around the Galapagos Islands which needless to say is a pristine ecosystem. I have lived in Ecuador for about 4 months for my thesis with close friends there and hence I was closely following the news. The Ecuadorean government was helpless as they are dependent on Chinese loans, don't have the naval power (unlike the Argentinians) to chase away the Chinese while they foolishly alienated the Americans by specifying that foreign countries can't have military bases in the country directly in their constitution by their previous Bolivarianist Socialist administration. Just gives you an indication of what to expect in a Chinese-dominated world. Western hypocrisy surely exists but on the scale of hypocrisy, they are certainly the better bunch.

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Originally Posted by dragracer567

That's the nail in the coffin, larger orders will help reduce the overall costs of an aircraft rather than buying small numbers of multiple aircraft.. So the only way to decrease the cost per jet is by buying more Rafales and rationalizing the fleet. The revived MMRCA is a joke anyway, how is an F-15EX a competitor for a SAAB Gripen E?

I mean that's essentially the reason why each individual B-2 costs in the multi billions because you're including the development costs and others. The more you make, the lower the unit costs become. After the American's screwed the pooch by prematurely ending the F-22 production run on cost grounds, Lockheed did everything possible to ensure their golden goose F-35 would be bought in far greater numbers and we have seen unit costs driven down over time as more of them are churned out.

On the topic of the new MMRCA, God knows. I mean I don't have to be an expert to know any twin engine jet is in a different class altogether compared to a single engine one. Such a shame, if India were able to purchase the Rafale in volume it would lower costs overall but given the economic impacts of COVID to come, I think any doubling down purchases are for the short and medium term, a non starter.

Originally Posted by dragracer567

I was indeed taken aback by how aggressively they went into the EEZs of South American countries (supposedly their allies) with Ecuador being the worst affected, the Chinese fleet started fishing in the waters around the Galapagos Islands which needless to say is a pristine ecosystem.

Ah of course, you're a marine biologist. You must've rankled at those Chinese trawler fleets, and they are very much fleets in the way they operate, in those waters. There's an interesting sub thread to the naval build up in the East China Sea in the increasingly large Coast Guard "cutters" being fielded by both the Chinese and Japanese, ostensibly to help police their respective EEZs. In reality if you look at some of these ships they'd put a fair few surface combatants, like destroyers, to shame. Imagine one of these behemoths looming over your fishing boat and you can see how if you were a Philippine fisherman for example, you'd have no option but to tuck tail and retreat.

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Croatia to purchase second hand Rafale's

Alongside India, Qatar and most recently Greece, Dassault lines up a potential new customer. I'll summarise the main points:

• Croatia elects to buy 12 second hand Rafales from the French Air Force
• Replaces their 12 jet fleet of Mig-21's (currently at an older spec than the variant used by say the Romanians, let alone the IAF)
• All 12 Rafales will be upgraded to the most current F3R spec at a total cost of $1.22b

Source

Key takeaways:

• This is quite an enormous leap from having Mig-21's to a comparatively bleeding edge multirole fighter like the Rafale.
• Understandably there's some surprise given Croatia's needs are essentially the quick response airspace defence role, for which the Rafale would be considered overkill. Especially when we consider the primary antagonist for the Croats, the Serbs, are equipped with Mig-29s of older vintage.
• There is a feeling that this is a political move considering the enormous cost is greater than their (Croatia's) annual defence budget ($1b).
• Whatever the case, if this deal does come to fruition, it's yet another operator of the platform for Dassault but crucially in the Indian context what remains to be seen are the exact economics of the deal. At the projected sticker price that's about $100m a jet, full spec upgrade included. The Greeks are getting 18 Rafales, similarly second hand from French stocks (to a slightly different spec), but I can't find what price their deal works out to unit cost wise. Essentially, if I were in the IAF procurement offices, I'd be scrutinising closely if the economics of such a deal do present favourably in terms of savings on the last govt-to-govt order for the 36 Rafales for India - should this be the case, then I suppose there's wiggle room to go back to the table for another tranche perhaps.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by ads11

[*]There is a feeling that this is a political move considering the enormous cost is greater than their (Croatia's) annual defence budget ($1b).

Interestingly enough, I was talking about this with a Croat friend of mine from my ERASMUS days and she claims this was almost surely a political move and a lot of the details regarding this deal seems incredibly murky. The leading contenders were Israeli used F16s (which makes more sense considering the intended use) but weren’t chosen because of pressure from the French to support the ‘European industry’.

Offcourse, such conspiracy theories crop up around defence procurements all the time and certainly aren’t uncommon in the subcontinent either!

[ads11]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Interestingly enough, I was talking about this with a Croat friend of mine from my ERASMUS days and she claims this was almost surely a political move and a lot of the details regarding this deal seems incredibly murky. The leading contenders were Israeli used F16s (which makes more sense considering the intended use) but weren’t chosen because of pressure from the French to support the ‘European industry’.

Offcourse, such conspiracy theories crop up around defence procurements all the time and certainly aren’t uncommon in the subcontinent either!

Considering the fact that they jumped from a second gen jet to a fourth gen multi role one, yes, it does indeed seem a massive stretch on their part. Used single engine jets of a modern vintage would've made much more sense. Going by the article, they weren't able to go with the Israeli F-16s because those Israeli jets have a plethora of Israeli origin sub systems that the US Congress wouldn't allow (seems bizarre to me) but essentially Congress is mandating that the Israelis would only be able to sell on back to the Croats if it were back to the American factory spec that they originally acquired them in. Obviously that makes going for these ex-IAF F-16s a non starter.

Still, it would seem that something of the like of the Gripen should fit the bill right, even if it's a slightly older model. I don't have much of an idea of what prevailing Croat sentiments are but I get the feeling that the progressive Swedes aren't exactly a natural match for the former, socially & geopolitically. Politically then I guess this was simply a matter of staying within the NATO alliance for their new jets and that left the French who we all know are not above selling to anyone really. Reading the story I couldn't help but wonder if following the last world cup final, Macron & the French decided to do the Croats a favour after rolling them over in the football but doing a deal for these jets!

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by ads11

Still, it would seem that something of the like of the Gripen should fit the bill right, even if it's a slightly older model. I don't have much of an idea of what prevailing Croat sentiments are but I get the feeling that the progressive Swedes aren't exactly a natural match for the former, socially & geopolitically. Politically then I guess this was simply a matter of staying within the NATO alliance for their new jets and that left the French who we all know are not above selling to anyone really. Reading the story I couldn't help but wonder if following the last world cup final, Macron & the French decided to do the Croats a favour after rolling them over in the football but doing a deal for these jets!

Well, the Swedes have sold the Gripens to far off countries like Brazil, South Africa and Thailand all of which are further down the progressiveness scale (Thailand is barely a democracy anymore) as compared to Croatia. The choosey ones seem to be Belgium and Germany rather than the Swedes. FN Herstal of Belgium and Heckler & Koch famously blocked gun sales of SCAR and MP5 rifles to India, the SCAR was eventually sourced from the American subsidiary of FN (I think) and I believe the other countries which Hecker & Koch refused to sell include: Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Brazil and Turkey. The Germans still supply weapons to some Gulf states however, so its probably a policy of the manufacturer.

Coming back to the Gripens, it has also been sold to countries like Czechia and Hungary - socially similar countries. It does seem that the selection of Rafales is considered controversial in Croatia given the costs (though I reckon the Gripens won't be any cheaper if bought new). The Croat sentiments weren't helped by the world cup final either