[SKC-auto]

Another hit piece by Forbes, sponsored by _ _ _.

Normal readers after reading Forbes article: The big boyz have come, now start the watch for demise of Tesla.

If the author would have really analysed what happened, why there is a sudden change of users behaviour, from selling several hundreds of cars in a country to less than hundred cars he would have got the answer. Did Tesla sell only because there is no competition all these years? Did all the "fanboys" bought their Tesla's already and no one left to purchase?

The truth is Tesla started selling their cars only in the continents they are made at. The Chinese market get their cars from Shanghai factory, North America gets from Fremont. Europe will get a significant number of cars from their Berlin factory once it's ready.

Until the Berlin factory is ready, Tesla is sending a ship or two to Europe to keep the presence. Just recently they have allotted 7000 cars (which are on their way) from their Shanghai factory( which had increased its capacity significantly) to Europe.

Forbes article in December: "Tesla shipped 7000 unsold cars to Europe from their Shanghai plant".

[srishiva]

Couldn't find a mention of Simple Energy's new upcoming scooter on searching the forum ! Its supposed to provide twice the range of current EV scooters.

https://www.overdrive.in/news-cars-a...rst-e-scooter/

[sgiitk]

UK says no more fossil fuel cars after 2030! As for Tesla it is the most valuable car company. Has overtaken GM and the lot.

Take it from me GM and co will go the way of Kodak- into oblivion. Kodak sold over 85% of the Photopaper. Now it is Zero. Olympus has moved out of the camera world.

Remember service may not be the money spinner it is now. EVs will have far fewer moving parts, and service may not be required. If a motor malfunctions it will be replaced.

[PGA]

I think our country is now at the cusp of huge business opportunity in EV space. Not as much driven by environmental issues but due to Govt policies of taxing fuel exorbitantly. Growing economy needs travel and movement and it's not possible at the current level of fuel prices, EV remains the only alternative, public transport is just not going to match up in our country for another half a century.

The opportunity is more into people's EV than Tesla variety. I do see substantial EV ownership by 2022 as second gen EVs roll out this year.

[V.Narayan]

Energy Fractions in EVs

Some afternoon ramblings....

It is very encouraging to see Mercedes, VW, BMW, JLR, Volvo, MG all displaying real seriousness about EVs and the new range they are introducing or soon will be. The EV sweep might overtake us sooner than later - my guess. What we think will happen in 20 years might happen in 10 or 12.

Observations I have about the first generation of EVs are two - one they are continuing with the body construction norms & materials of ICE cars and two as a consequence these first generation EVs are way too heavy for the range the customer desires. Permit me to explain.

EVs are like aircraft - you operate on the margin of energy you can carry or generate respectively with respect to the performance the machine is expected to deliver. This is unlike ICE cars that may spend their lives at an average of 50 kmph but can clock 3X that speed easily. In aircraft that might be speed & lift and in EVs it translates to range. In aviation we have a concept called fuel fraction i.e. {weight of fuel}/{all up weight}. Simply put it tells you what range an aircraft can fly economically after which if you try to carry more fuel (in order to increase range} you need fuel to carry that fuel and extra structural weight to carry the fuel that carries the fuel that gives the extra range!!

Given that energy density of batteries is way below that of petroleum a similar concept, directionally speaking, would apply to EV cars -let's term it energy fraction. I am sure the designers of EVs are conscious of this concept - if I am they certainly must be. But when I look at the net empty weight of these cars, even after deducting some reasonable number for their batteries, they are heavy. The materials and structural design technology used in the chassis/hull of the car needs to get to a point where battery weight is roughly 33%* of the all up weight of the car, including payload, to start delivering really meaningful real world ranges of say 500 to 600 kms. That is probably a WLTP range of 750 to 850 kms.

The Tesla S has a battery weight of 540 kgs versus an all up weight of 2250 kgs. That's a ratio of 25%. I suspect Tata Nexon etc are lower. Don't know the number for the new models Mercedes and VW are introducing. Of course improvements in battery energy density will change things but the concept of fuel fraction will still hold. Right now because we are building cars largely of steel and aluminium we have not tested the limits of economical fuel fractions with batteries.

* Just my thumb rule guesstimate

[Holyghost]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Energy Fractions in EVs

Some afternoon ramblings....

It is very encouraging to see Mercedes, VW, BMW, JLR, Volvo, MG all displaying real seriousness about EVs and the new range they are introducing or soon will be. The EV sweep might overtake us sooner than later - my guess. What we think will happen in 20 years might happen in 10 or 12.
..
The Tesla S has a battery weight of 540 kgs versus an all up weight of 2250 kgs. That's a ratio of 25%. I suspect Tata Nexon etc are lower.]

Nexon EV Battery pack is 260KG and Vehicle weight is 1400KG. So thats 18.5%.

[carthick1000]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Energy Fractions in EVs
....

i.e. {weight of fuel}/{all up weight}. Simply put it tells you what range an aircraft can fly economically after which if you try to carry more fuel (in order to increase range} you need fuel to carry that fuel and extra structural weight to carry the fuel that carries the fuel that gives the extra range!!

Interesting to compare the EV battery vs kerb weights. Adding to the list :

BMW i3 120Ah (42.2kWh gross / 38kWh net) - 265kg pack / 1345kg kerb - 19.7%
Tesla model 3 LR AWD (80kWh gross / 75 kWh usable) - 480kg pack / 1847kg kerb - 25.9%

It would be also useful to have the kerb weight/Range ratios, as this will give a good indication of which EV is more efficient. For normalising, I used WLTP ranges:

i3 120Ah - 1345kg / 308km - 4.36kg/km
model 3 LR AWD - 1847kg / 580km - 3.18kg/km

Lower the better in both cases.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by carthick1000

Interesting to compare the EV battery vs kerb weights. Adding to the list :

BMW i3 120Ah (42.2kWh gross / 38kWh net) - 265kg pack / 1345kg kerb - 19.7%
Tesla model 3 LR AWD (80kWh gross / 75 kWh usable) - 480kg pack / 1847kg kerb - 25.9%

It would be also useful to have the kerb weight/Range ratios, as this will give a good indication of which EV is more efficient. For normalising, I used WLTP ranges:

i3 120Ah - 1345kg / 308km - 4.36kg/km
model 3 LR AWD - 1847kg / 580km - 3.18kg/km

Lower the better in both cases.

That's neat. So let me add to my earlier post #530. I'll stay with my comparisons to aircraft design because in both EVs and aircraft literally every kilo of weight counts. In aircraft while determining lift and associated safety margins and in EVs while determining range and its safety margins.

In aircraft design we look at maximum weight without fuel i.e. the empty weight plus payload. Aircraft ranges have improved as much due to better engines {turbojets --> turbofans --> high bypass ratio turbofans etc} as it has due to making the structure lighter and stronger. Every kilo saved on structure means there is one kilo less of non-battery, non-payload weight to pull and it creates space for one kilo of extra battery capacity i.e. it adds value to both ends of the range equation.

Car makers will need to start looking at every ounce of weight under a magnifying glass. Once an airline wanted little video screens installed at the back of each seat. Now a common thing but back then a novelty. We were given the job. 185 seats x 450 grammes per video screen = 83 kilos. Even that 83 kilos had to be weighed in on costing of its impact on fuel cost per hour of flying. 83 kilos on an aircraft with an all up weight of around 93,500 kilos. That is how maniacal the car designers need to get about weight.

Originally Posted by Holyghost

Nexon EV Battery pack is 260KG and Vehicle weight is 1400KG. So thats 18.5%.

Thank you @HolyGhost

[volkman10]

Electrics may not form 1 per cent of cars by ’24: Hyundai

The sales of passenger vehicles (cars and SUVs) in India was around 2.5 million units in 2020, and 1% of this would be 25,000 (actual sales of EVs were only around 3,500 units).

adoption of electrics in the Indian car market will be slow and may not cross 1% of overall sales in next three years. This is despite the special benefits and tax breaks that the green technology is receiving from the government.

High cost of lithium-ion batteries and constraints on affordability and single-charge running range are among concerns that the industry faces

Link

[volkman10]

Q1 2021 EV global sales at the same level as 2017 full year figures.

China regained top position for EV sales, after losing it in Q1 2020 when the pandemic hit. Today, 53% of all electric passenger cars sold are in China. This dominant position is due to the implementation of strong incentives packages by the central and regional governments.

Link

[knightrider_7]

Niti Aayog has released these documents which reveals India's approach to EV infrastructure development.

[volkman10]

Dr Andy Palmer(often referred to as the ‘grandfather of electric vehicles’) :

- EVs not the sole option for a net zero future.
- Engineers are the solution, not politicians
- Politicians should define the problem and let the engineers come up with the solution.

Are we trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions? Or are we chasing cleaner air? If the former is what we’re looking to achieve, then we should be focusing a little more energy on hot hydrogen, fuel cells and synthetic fuels. While synthetic fuels burn carbon, CO2 is actually captured in the manufacturing process, thereby resulting to synthetic fuels becoming “net zero”. If it’s clean air that we’re chasing, then EVs are the obvious solution as tailpipe emissions get eradicated once and for all, despite the legitimate concerns around how materials for batteries are mined and manufactured. However, it might also be the case that those in power both want to capture CO2, as well as tackle cleaner air. If this is the case, then what we must do is pay for the premium, given that the only viable option today in this regard is to look at fuel cells from a clean hydrogen source: with clean hydrogen sources being very, very scarce. It won’t be easy, but many countries, not least India, has the talent and brains within its research and academic institutions to get us close to making this more of a reality.

Like the shift from the horse to the cart, I truly believe the shift from internal combustion to electric mobility is equally seismic.

Link

[Shresth_EV]

India can bypass hybrids for EVs: Tata, Mahindra chiefs

With hybrids not yet fully embraced in India, Mahindra and Tata chiefs believe the country can go straight to EVs, as issues of range, charging and costs are fading away. With India focused on an electric vehicle future, some in the industry believe that hybrids are best ignored.

Speaking at the EV Forum event organised by our sister publication, Autocar Professional, Suman Mishra, CEO, Mahindra Electric, and Anand Kulkarni, product line director, EV and Passenger Vehicle Unit, Tata Motors, both asserted their belief that India is ready to directly leapfrog into a pure-EV era.

With traditional barriers of electric vehicles such as range, charging and cost gradually blurring out, hybrid vehicles will be increasingly less relevant, more so, from an environmental point of view.

1. Government policies greatly favour pure EVs over hybrids
2. EVs have closed the cost disadvantage to hybrid vehicles
3. Range anxiety and charging infrastructure issues gradually being addressed
4. Government incentives greatly accelerating EV adoption

“In India, policies are not necessarily very conducive for hybrids and they [hybrids] are quite expensive. So, the government has given us a very clear ask with its EV-specific schemes. This is very clear from the government standpoint that lets us directly leapfrog into BEVs,” said Suman Mishra.

For its part, the Indian government has significantly been pushing the adoption of EVs. With the government’s recent PLI scheme, the FAME II scheme and several state EV policies all greatly incentivising both purchase and manufacturing of EVs, awareness among consumers has grown considerably. Consequently, EV sales have picked up significantly in the recent past.

“There is going to be an adequate period when all types of powertrains are going to coexist – petrol, diesel, CNG, hybrids and BEVs – it’s not going to switch overnight. However, my understanding of the macro behaviour of India and the policies is that we will probably directly leapfrog into BEVs,” added Mishra.

What made hybrid vehicles relevant, even a few years ago, were the traditional problems of range anxiety, charging infrastructure and high costs of EVs. However, with governments pushing for EVs and automakers across the world investing billions of dollars in developing fully electric portfolios, the tipping point is near to where battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will resolve the very problems that required hybrids in the first place.

Furthermore, with the prices of batteries drastically reducing and incentives on EVs, the cost difference between hybrids and full electrics isn’t that much.

Speaking of costs, Kulkarni said, “Today, if you see, it’s almost come to a point where if you decide to package a reasonably sized and reasonably adequate hybrid power system, it will probably start to compete with an electric powertrain vehicle in terms of price.”

For reference, the Tata Nexon EV currently tops out at Rs 16.85 lakh (ex-showroom, excluding subsidies). Meanwhile, the upcoming Honda City Hybrid, which uses a strong or full-hybrid system, is expected to cost around Rs 16 lakh (ex-showroom). So that neither leaves hybrids with any significant cost advantage over EVs, nor are they completely emissions free.

Also speaking at the event was Chetan Maini, co-founder and vice-president, Sun Mobility, who is perhaps best known for building India’s first electric car, the Reva.

He said, “It [hybrids] probably made sense 20 years ago. At this point, we need a solution from an energy and an environmental point of view, and for both perspectives, electrics make a lot more sense. In hybrids, you continue to keep the complexities of an engine, and add the complexities of electric. However, with range anxiety being addressed with pure EVs, we are finally giving the consumers a better experience.”

However, not all are aboard the EV train. While our homegrown manufacturers are clearly betting big here, in stark contrast, Maruti Suzuki, India’s largest automaker, has so far steered clear.

While announcing Maruti Suzuki’s FY2021 annual report in August, the company’s chairman, RC Bhargava, had said that India is not ready for the mass adoption of EVs just yet. “Our strategy for moving towards net zero emission has to be consistent with the economic and infrastructure conditions prevailing in the country,” said Bhargava.

Instead, Maruti Suzuki has been reliant on CNG and mild-hybrid vehicles as stepping stones towards achieving net zero emissions. Even globally, Suzuki firmly believes that, at least in the near future, hybrids are the way to go.

Among other carmakers echoing this sentiment are Toyota, which is globally renowned for its hybrid systems in models like the Corolla and Camry. Particularly in the Indian context, where charging stations and infrastructure are the main challenges, Toyota believes that hybrids are the most practical solution for reducing fuel consumption and curbing pollution.

Via : AutoCAR India

Note to mods : please move the post to relevant/new thread if necessary. Much thanks.

[volkman10]

Rising wholesale electricity prices will affect the switch to electric vehicles.

Europe is facing an energy crisis thanks to low wind-power generation, broken connections that allow electricity to be shared across nations and shrinking nuclear energy sources.

The UK has responded by burning more gas to produce electricity - but gas prices are at a record high. The result is that wholesale electricity costs are at their highest levels in years, and this is having a knock-on effect for anything that uses electricity.

Link

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by Shresth_EV

India can bypass hybrids for EVs: Tata, Mahindra chiefs

With hybrids not yet fully embraced in India, Mahindra and Tata chiefs believe the country can go straight to EVs, as issues of range, charging and costs are fading away. With India focused on an electric vehicle future, some in the industry believe that hybrids are best ignored.

Can't help but agree with this. The concept of hybrids as a stop-gap is way past the expiry date and EVs are very quickly reaching maturity. It's not inconceivable that by 2028, the charging networks in the US and Europe will rival petrol stations with charge times below 15 minutes. When EVs are advancing so rapidly, I just don't see the point of hybrids anymore.

Companies like Maruti & Toyota are pushing for hybrids not because they think its the better technology but because they've fallen behind because of their complacency and laziness. That said, Toyota is working on hydrogen power which still has a very long way to go.