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Old 25th January 2016, 14:28   #1
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Default 100% Electric Transportation by 2030 - Disruption to the Oil & Auto industries

Tony Seba is a Lecturer in Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford University. He is also the author of the book "Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation" in which he asserts that by 2030
  1. All new mass market vehicles will be electric
  2. All these vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving)
  3. up to 80% parking spaces and highways will be redundant
  4. Taxis as we know them will become obsolete
  5. The concept of car ownership will be obsolete
  6. Oil will be obsolete
  7. All new energy will be provided by solar and wind

100% Electric Transportation by 2030 - Disruption to the Oil & Auto industries-tony-seba.jpg
Source : Link

His talk in 2014 explains the above concepts




If you watch this video, it will get you thinking that what appears to be very remote, could actually happen.

On a lighter vein, his description on the efficiency of the electric motor can been seen in this video showing the capabilities of the Tesla Model S in "Insane Mode"



Please share your thoughts

Cheers

KPS
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Old 26th January 2016, 00:03   #2
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Default re: 100% Electric Transportation by 2030 - Disruption to the Oil & Auto industries

Another view to look at why the oil prices are heading south. With the sudden rise of disruptive cleaner energy technologies Saudi’s know that their energy dominance might not last long. Hence they are pumping hard to maintain market share as they will still be making money at $10/ barrel. In short Saudi’s want to cash in on the 267 Billions of barrels of crude at hand, when crude is fetching something. Which otherwise in future may never get extracted from ground due to environmental factors and lack of low/no demand.
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Old 16th January 2020, 13:25   #3
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Default Re: 100% Electric Transportation by 2030 - Disruption to the Oil & Auto industries

This guy has a rather convincing way of putting forward his views:

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Old 16th January 2020, 14:20   #4
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Default Re: 100% Electric Transportation by 2030 - Disruption to the Oil & Auto industries

Quote:
Originally Posted by tj123 View Post
Another view to look at why the oil prices are heading south. With the sudden rise of disruptive cleaner energy technologies Saudi’s know that their energy dominance might not last long.
Oil's looming obsolescence is the reason why The Kingdom has begun revamping their vision for the future and why many changes have already kicked in.

But the US' shale oil production (which has surpassed many OPEC cartel members, including The Kingdom's) is what has really driven down oil prices in the last 4-5 years. The oil fields in North Dakota have really hung the Saudis and other OPEC member nations out to dry.
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Old 23rd January 2020, 08:27   #5
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Default Clean Disruption of energy by 2030

I came across this fascinating video by Tony Seba describing the total, but positive, disruption of energy and transportation that has already started and will change our world within a decade.



His predictions are that by 2030 :

- 90% of US transportation, in terms of passenger miles, will be on multi-user, on-demand, self-drive vehicles at 1/10th per mile cost compared to today.
- This will add 2 Trillion Dollars p.a. in disposable income of the US public.
- Demand for new cars (has already peaked world-wide) will be almost gone
- Oil price will drop to $25 per bbl and fall further
- Greenhouse emissions will fall by 90%

His predictions are backed by historical, and current, evidence based on the S-shaped growth curve of disruptive technology.

Worth watching, and pondering about.

It seems owning a car a decade from now will be like what owning a horse is today - a luxury for the very few.
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Old 23rd January 2020, 12:30   #6
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Default Re: Clean Disruption of energy by 2030

Well all those points are well accepted. The only thing which varies from person to person is predicting the timeline of such a change.

Perhaps 2030 works for US, but I am not too sure about India.


* The oil prices dropping may not happen at all. Yeah, we understand that the demand for fossil fuels will go down, but all the refiners today are setting up large petrochemical complexes. Everyone is moving from fuels to chemicals.
The demand for chemicals is not going to reduce anytime in future. Hence the demand for crude oil is also not going to reduce.

Last edited by alpha1 : 23rd January 2020 at 12:32. Reason: *
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Old 23rd January 2020, 13:24   #7
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Default Re: Clean Disruption of energy by 2030

Fascinating video. Incredible that the guy predicted a lot of things back in 2014 which seemed crazy at that time but still happened.
I was not aware of it, but went through the comments and saw some people saying that the speech has remained same through the years but now he is talking about what has happened. So it is not hindsight, but his foresight back in the day that is getting proven now.

I would want to listen to the solar one also that he pointed out in the presentation.
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Old 23rd January 2020, 15:06   #8
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Default Re: Clean Disruption of energy by 2030

If anyone of us has been to Thermal Power Plants in India, our main source of electricty generation, they can easily vouch that GREEN & CLEAN is not a word in 10 kms vicinity of such plants. India's balance between Thermal & alterante energy source is 60%-40%. (see attachment) [ATTACH=Year End Review 2018 – MNRE.pdf]1960036[/ATTACH]

Whenever I read these two fancy words GREEN & CLEAN, I cringe because at the backend that is not the truth.
E-cars will require as much power generation - so on face value we will have possible greener mega cities but exploited mines &/or increased coal imports & smoke spewing thermal plants at the back.
Just my four cents.

Regards-SS
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File Type: pdf Year End Review 2018 – MNRE.pdf (122.6 KB, 41 views)
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Old 23rd January 2020, 16:14   #9
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Default Re: Clean Disruption of energy by 2030

Quote:
Originally Posted by benu9714 View Post
I came across this fascinating video by Tony Seba describing the total, but positive, disruption of energy and transportation that has already started and will change our world within a decade.

His predictions are that by 2030 :

- 90% of US transportation, in terms of passenger miles, will be on multi-user, on-demand, self-drive vehicles at 1/10th per mile cost compared to today.
- This will add 2 Trillion Dollars p.a. in disposable income of the US public.
- Demand for new cars (has already peaked world-wide) will be almost gone
- Oil price will drop to $25 per bbl and fall further
- Greenhouse emissions will fall by 90%
His predictions are backed by historical, and current, evidence based on the S-shaped growth curve of disruptive technology.
Worth watching, and pondering about.
It seems owning a car a decade from now will be like what owning a horse is today - a luxury for the very few.
- Self driving cars will not change the cost of transportation, energy required to transport people will be the same, it might cost the user a little less than owning a car. There is a cost associated with multiple users, think of the seats on a bus, that's certainly not what you want with personal transport. A tenth of the cost, based on what's the benchmark?
- Disposable incomes rising by $2 trillion, doing what kind of job? Does he have a clue? His favourite word is disruption, outside his ivory tower it means unemployment and poverty.
- Plenty of people will be buying cars if they had decent jobs and if they weren't loaded down with student debt. Cars need to be replaced and no, there is no on demand solution that'll be cheaper than owning a car.
- Oil prices falling will be irrelevant, electricity prices will be what matters, you aren't bothered by petrol prices when you own an electric car.
- Not sure if this means that we all become cavemen or EV owners, greenhouse gases are not a problem in a lot of countries because they are currently at a level where they boil stones for soup. 90% less greenhouse gases means they better like their food raw.

Owning a car will entail the same prestige it does today, freedom and convenience still mean something to a lot of people. The last time California had a power outage, you had Tesla owners running generators to charge up their cars, that's right diesel generators helped with virtue signaling.
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Old 23rd January 2020, 16:37   #10
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Default Re: Clean Disruption of energy by 2030

There's already a thread on this and have posted the same video there on the 16th, Jan, 2020.

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/elect...ndustries.html (100% Electric Transportation by 2030 - Disruption to the Oil & Auto industries)
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Old 24th January 2020, 08:13   #11
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Default Re: Clean Disruption of energy by 2030

Guys, he is talking about US so we need to have it in the right context.
Also, he does not only talk about disruptive technologies, but also about convergence of these technologies. In transportation he is specifically talking about convergence of 4 technologies and one business model ( all disruptive in themselves) causing this significant change.
- Batteries
-Electric Vehicles
-Autonomous Vehicles
-On Demand Transport
- Solar.

It is not only autonomous vehicles, but the combination of all above that will lead to what he says. He also does not say this will happen with how things are now, but his prediction is based on the development that has happened so far in these regions and his outlook of how it will proceed.

It think there is merit.
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Old 24th January 2020, 08:29   #12
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Default Re: 100% Electric Transportation by 2030 - Disruption to the Oil & Auto industries

10 years is too little time for such changes in my opinion. Many of us still have cars from 2009 and apart from few features like - Apple car play I don’t see how 2020 MY cars are any different than 2009.
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Old 24th January 2020, 12:46   #13
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Default Re: 100% Electric Transportation by 2030 - Disruption to the Oil & Auto industries

Quote:
Originally Posted by KPS View Post
he asserts that by 2030
All these vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving) - I really do not see that happening universally. There may be pockets and model-towns/cities where it will happen, but much of the world is quite far from this!

On the other hand, if autonomous-driving were to be made the law in most countries and human-driving banned, that could truly make traffic lot more tolerable and commute peaceful! Uncertainty in commute times would be almost eliminated.

The concept of car ownership will be obsolete - A pipedream! People may not care much about cars itself, but the central ideology is that of personal mobility. Car ownership is just a most convenient enabler of that ideology. That is not going to be obsolete - people are furiously independent and many detest the thought of 'shared' transportation. Even if the world comes down to moving about on organic-horses, many of us will have our own organic-horse!

All new energy will be provided by solar and wind - Not likely. You need batteries to be truly and completely on wind/solar. The planet will become a battery dump-yard! But if the idea is that of alternate fuel, that is where we are headed.

up to 80% parking spaces and highways will be redundant - Not likely to happen. One will still need the parking spaces for the choices of personal mobility vehicles. Much of the highways will be redundant only if we have flying cars or drones for personal mobility! Even so, the word redundant there would not imply 'useless', but would imply a 'backup'.

All in all, quite a few of his perspectives will hold in an ideal world; but we live in the real world.
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