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Old 16th November 2017, 21:21   #1
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Default BS-VI cars vs electric cars

It is disturbing to note that the leadership and bureaucracy are pushing for electric motor vehicles by 2030 (China has targeted 2040), without much research and objective, analytical backing. Addressing and quantitatively assessing the coal-based thermal power plant triggered pollution issue, as a result of generation of augmented power capacities of power plants is on the back burner. No such research has been conducted, nor is there any such proposal heard of.

Also the millions of batteries consumed by electric motor vehicles and the corresponding need for metals like nickel and lithium (we import both as our resources are scarce) are not being talked of. Nor has been any plan conceptualized for the safe disposal or recycling of such batteries. This link below provides an insight into the damage that can be caused by such batteries.

https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/p...-bacteria.html

Mr Roland Folger ,the CEO of Mercedes Benz India, has recently stated that the electric cars shall be more polluting, compared to a BS IV diesel vehicle. This has some truth, as he says almost all our electricity is fossil fuel generated.The question is, according to him "Can the electricity producing industry keep up with the improvements in the automotive business?"

https://auto.economictimes.indiatime...olger/59961247

And the flip side is that the auto manufacturers have been directed to introduce BS VI standards. They are investing heavily in BS VI technology for the 2020 debut. The BS VI fuels will be marketed by April 2018 in the NCR as has been revealed yesterday. Even the oil refineries need huge investments to change over to the BS VI low sulphur diesel.

With such a backdrop, would it be wise to go for a total electric motor vehicle introduction by 2030 ? Or, would it be advisable to go for a phase wise introduction from 2030 onwards ?

Our only advantage upon introduction of electric motor vehicle technology is the massive savings on foreign exchange outgo, due to reduced crude imports. We have imported crude worth US $ 64 billion (RS 416,000 crores) during 2015-16 and this is projected to grow 12.5 % to US $ 72 billion (Rs 468,000 crores) this fiscal. With the crude prices reaching $ 60 per barrel, this figure could be higher, as the calculations are based on a constant price of US $ 55 per barrel of crude oil and the exchange rate remaining at Rs 67=00 per US $ (its around Rs 65= 27 now).
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Old 17th November 2017, 00:39   #2
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Default re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

Quote:
Originally Posted by anjan_c2007 View Post
It is disturbing to note that the leadership and bureaucracy are pushing for electric motor vehicles by 2030 (China has targeted 2040), without much research and objective, analytical backing.
Thats a wrong assumption. Lets wait for the Govt to come out with a proposal/policy and then we can start taking out our knives.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anjan_c2007 View Post
Also the millions of batteries consumed by electric motor vehicles and the corresponding need for metals like nickel and lithium (we import both as our resources are scarce) are not being talked of. Nor has been any plan conceptualized for the safe disposal or recycling of such batteries.
These metals will be expensive for years to come which is one big reason customers will go for recycling. Govt can put recycling tax on replacement batteries which can be waived if the original battery is turned in. Lot of options here. As I said lets wait for the policy.

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Originally Posted by anjan_c2007 View Post
Mr Roland Folger ,the CEO of Mercedes Benz India, has recently stated that the electric cars shall be more polluting, compared to a BS IV diesel vehicle.
Not true.

https://qz.com/1118616/electric-cars...still-cleaner/

I fell the whole discussion about electric vehicles being not cleaner is a motivated one. Go through this link for proof:

https://www.marketplace.org/2017/08/...otal-emissions

Some points:

So, on average, no matter where you are, driving an electric car would shrink the emissions footprint by at least half compared to Linden’s 2010 Corolla.

The emissions that come out of tailpipes and power plants contain more than just carbon dioxide. There’s also ozone, particulate matter and carbon monoxide.

“They’re often called ‘criteria air pollutants,’ and those cause asthma, respiratory disease, heart disease in individuals,” said J.R. DeShazo, a professor of public policy at UCLA. “Just reducing people's exposure to those emissions improves their health.

DeShazo said driving an electric vehicle, even if it's fueled by a polluting power plant, moves these "criteria air pollutant" emissions to power plants, most of which are located farther away from where people live.

“If driving electric vehicle reduces the number of people exposed to harmful pollution, then that improves people’s health and society’s well-being. Even if total emissions don’t go down, they just get moved to a place where there are fewer people,” DeShazo said.


These studies do not consider the carbon cost of extracting and transporting fossil fuels. Electricity will be mostly local to the country.

Also consider most of the diesel cars are rigged for pollution tests. Most of the BS IV diesel vehicles are either BS I or BS II in real time conditions. It might be the same story with BS VI.

I am all for electric cars. What we see is only a start. It will get much better in the years to come. Hope this helps.

We have never seen Indian govt's being so mission oriented in the past. Even if electric cars are 50% of sales by 2030 I would say mission accomplished.

Last edited by airbender : 17th November 2017 at 00:56.
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Old 17th November 2017, 01:04   #3
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Default re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

Technology is changing fast. Few years back we couldn't imagine a private company launching rockets or having a iphone x in your hand. its inevitable. rather than opposing it we should move away from fossils fuels as fast as we can to save our planet.

12 years in the future we should prepare ourselves financially to have a kick*** electric car.
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Old 17th November 2017, 01:46   #4
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Default re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

I attended a seminar recently, the speaker presented an analysis (energy chain / CO2 etc.) with side by side comparison of an electric vehicle and a conventional car (both comparable).

It showed, in the current scenario, the electric vehicle is more inefficient than a comparable ICE driven car!

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Old 17th November 2017, 08:01   #5
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Default re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

The case is not straight forward and these are areas of hot debate in scientific community.

There is a saying in the sustainability field, an unit of electricity saved at consumer end has infact saved two units of electricity at source.

Energy losses in power distribution, fossil sources of power plants, battery's complete life cycle load on environment bla..bla..bla.. reduce the electric vehicles score on greener front and may appear comparable to combustion engines today (barring particulate matter of Diesel engines, which is a different beast to compare).

The technology of internal combustion engines is already at the brim of maximum efficiency realistically achievable. Scope for improvement can be incremental but they are thermodynamically limited.

On the other hand, there is significant scope for improvement in EVs. Until the technology matures (EV, Battery, Power distribution, Renewable energy), full hybrids have scope to explore as they do not need to be plugged in.

Any new technology, in order to be sustainable, has to offer superior business potential compared to the ones it phases out. The oil companies are going to adapt to decreasing demand of fossils, reduce prices and make internal combustion engines competitive. The yo-yo fight could possibly prolong the time needed to realise full EV transportation across the globe.

Note: Oil companies keep acquiring IP rights of EV technology. The latest I saw was "Shell acquires NewMotion- the biggest EV charging network of Europe"(link)

Last edited by Thermodynamics : 17th November 2017 at 08:16. Reason: More info
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Old 17th November 2017, 10:22   #6
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Default re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

Quote:
Originally Posted by anjan_c2007 View Post
It is disturbing to note that the leadership and bureaucracy are pushing for electric motor vehicles by 2030 (China has targeted 2040), without much research and objective, analytical backing.
There is considerable work going on in background at policy-making level such as this. While it doesn't fully address all issues associated with electric vehicles, I am sure there are many such studies evaluating pros and cons basis which decisions are being taken.

Quote:
Addressing and quantitatively assessing the coal-based thermal power plant triggered pollution issue, as a result of generation of augmented power capacities of power plants is on the back burner. No such research has been conducted, nor is there any such proposal heard of.
Coal power plants are becoming increasingly efficient every passing day. Ultra supercritical technology means plants have as much as 45% net efficiency even with moderate coal quality. Also, modern emission control equipment means pollution level from power plants can be controlled very well. As new plants are commissioned and old ones are shut down, one will only see improved emission profile of electricity generation.

Quote:
Mr Roland Folger ,the CEO of Mercedes Benz India, has recently stated that the electric cars shall be more polluting, compared to a BS IV diesel vehicle. This has some truth, as he says almost all our electricity is fossil fuel generated.
The electricity mix is changing rapidly in favour of renewables. 'All electricity comes from fossil fuel' is not a scenario that will hold up in next decade.

Quote:
With such a backdrop, would it be wise to go for a total electric motor vehicle introduction by 2030 ? Or, would it be advisable to go for a phase wise introduction from 2030 onwards ?
It will certainly be phase-wise. While our tier-1 cities need electric vehicles, India is geographically vast and electric and IC vehicles can co-exist for long time.
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Old 17th November 2017, 11:13   #7
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Default re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

Quote:
Originally Posted by anjan_c2007 View Post
It is disturbing to note that the leadership and bureaucracy are pushing for electric motor vehicles by 2030 (China has targeted 2040), without much research and objective, analytical backing.
Electric, Fuel-cell, hydrogen and similar Zero emission vehicles is the future. There is no point in denying that fact and these BS6, 7, 8 etc will only be a stop gap until we all move to a zero emission target. At present, the only viable option is Electric vehicles. If Hydrogen or Fuel Cell technology catches up, it will replace the electric vehicles. So it is quite normal for the every Govt to push for the available technology to reduce the emissions and crude imports. Do note that these are under the jurisdiction of the Govt and dont expect the Manufacturers to come forward and change themselves when it is financially profitable for them to continue manufacturing and selling ICE vehicles. That being said, 2030 is an ambitious target and will be achieved only if Electric vehicles get 700+ KM of range and costs cheaper than ICE vehicle. At present, even a 200KM range electric vehicle is priced way beyond the reach of common Indian car buyer.

Quote:
Mr Roland Folger ,the CEO of Mercedes Benz India, has recently stated that the electric cars shall be more polluting, compared to a BS IV diesel vehicle. This has some truth, as he says almost all our electricity is fossil fuel generated.The question is, according to him "Can the electricity producing industry keep up with the improvements in the automotive business?"
The fact is electricity producing industry has moved far ahead in terms of renewable energy. Solar and Wind power is at the lowest levels and there wont be any financial or other benefits for building new thermal power plants. Even India is making big leaps to produce most of its energy from renewables. In the near future, the thermal and nuclear plants will just be supporting the grid for peak usage and nights. Researches are going on for grid level battery backup and pumped storage hydro power plants that can support the power requirements during nights and bad weather.

The internet is full of articles with pros and cons of electric. The beauty of internet is that you will only get what you seek. If you seek for the cons on Electric vehicles, you will see only that and that too in millions. The same happens if you search for the pros of Electrics. I did review atleast half a dozen of such papers and it was clearly evident that they all omitted a lot of facts to show electrics in bad light.

Last edited by Holyghost : 17th November 2017 at 11:18.
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Old 17th November 2017, 11:15   #8
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Default re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

While evaluating the pollution load of Electric Cars, you have to consider the contribution of each step - Mining/Pumping of fuel, Production of electricity, Distribution loss, Production of batteries and their replacement/disposal. When taken as a whole the EV have more pollution load compared to IC engines when coal or oil based electricity is considered.

Yes Thermal plants are tending to be more and more efficient in generation as well as controlling the pollutants, but it comes at a cost both financial as well as pollution. Current practice of cleaning coal or oil of the constituents contributing to pollution just shifts the load to processing plants away from generation.

At present no other technology can beat the IC engine in size, weight and fuel portability. You can carry fuel practically any place on the earth to ensure that the vehicle remains powered. EV at present are constrained by heavy batteries and dependence on Electricity Supply, a commodity that is scarce/unavailable in remote locations. So like every other thing in this country till we pull up the infrastructure, EV will remain confined to major population centres.

As all countries are going to rely more and more on renewable sources of electricity (due to finite quantity of fossil fuels) - Solar, Hydro and Wind, it is inevitable that EV are the future, at least for normal commuters.

What is of importance is whether the electricity production in India can cater to the load of vehicle charging. As it is we face power shortages practically every where in the country, add to that the load of charging millions of vehicles, and you can guess the scenario!! Long ques at charging stations, similar to what I see at CNG pumps.
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Old 18th November 2017, 17:31   #9
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Default re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

India's present energy provenance break-up is as follows:

Coal and lignite: 53 %
Oil: 29 %
Natural gas: 10 %
Hydel power: 5 %
Nuclear energy: 1.8 %
Renewable or non-conventional energy: 1.2 %

The only likelihood of a quantum jump in generation, could be in the nuclear power sector over the coming decades from the above list, to take the burden off the fossil fuel shoulders. Our dependence on fossil fuels will remain for several more decades to come, come what may, given the affordable cost of generation and transmission for a poor country like ours. The other renewable resources may take a leap by a very few percentage points given the high initial investments involved and the high cost of generation and transmission. For instance, we have proved geothermal resources way back in the 1970's in the Puga Valley, J & K and lately in the 1990's in Tatapani, Ambikapur dist. in M.P. Both are viable for the generation of about 2-4 MW of power but the initial investments are unaffordable. But again, the NTPC has now started making a project report for the Tatapani geothermal power plant to get commissioned.

Whereas, the energy scenario and break -up of the resources that contribute for power generation in the US of A, as in 2016 is :

Natural gas = 33.8%
Coal = 30.4%
Nuclear = 19.7%
Renewables (total) = 14.9%
-Hydropower = 6.5%
-Wind = 5.6%
-Biomass = 1.5%
-Solar = 0.9%
-Geothermal = 0.4%
Petroleum = 0.6%
Other gases = 0.3%
Other non-renewable sources = 0.3%
Pumped storage hydroelectricity = -0.2%

So the moot point is, will the augmented power generation derived mainly from fossil fuels ( now as on date at 92 %) to cater to the needs of electric vehicles, not further contaminate the atmosphere ? Alongside, with the inevitable switch over to electric cars, we need to look at the nuclear power option (with all the safety factors in tow), while augmenting our energy needs and not wholly rely on fossil fuels. Our coal reserves are among the largest in the world and will last another 250 - 300 years keeping in view the present resources and consumption pattern.

Last edited by anjan_c2007 : 18th November 2017 at 17:53.
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Old 18th November 2017, 18:00   #10
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Default re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

The source of electricity doesn't matter. Fossil fuel or wind or solar or hydro, 100% of all electricity is generated in India or friendly neighbouring countries like Bhutan or Nepal.

Most oil is imported , eating away foreign reserves and it mostly comes from countries unfriendly to our nation.

However I would only support a phased transition and I would like to hold a petrol / diesel vehicle as a classic without the authorities threatening me endlessly.

I have come across instances of cops forcing classic car owners in Ooty to sell off vehicles. It was a huge scam.
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Old 20th November 2017, 12:26   #11
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Default Re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

There will indeed be a shift from coal based thermal power plants to fast breeder reactors which is in development. India has got one of the richest deposits of monazite on the west coast which is good news for us.
The safe disposal of batteries are tricky. I wonder why Musk is pushing for Mars colonization? To dump these out There??
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Old 20th November 2017, 12:57   #12
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Default Re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

Quote:
Originally Posted by ckranjan View Post
Technology is changing fast. Few years back we couldn't imagine a private company launching rockets or having a iphone x in your hand. its inevitable. rather than opposing it we should move away from fossils fuels as fast as we can to save our planet.

12 years in the future we should prepare ourselves financially to have a kick*** electric car.
I don't know if iphone x is such a huge technological stepup but pure electric cars surely are. These cars, however, come at a premium; and with the onset of electric cars, fossil fuel driven small-medium sized cars would become cheaper to purchase and to own. Unless the government totally bans the petrol & diesel cars, these would still be relevant.
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Old 20th November 2017, 13:02   #13
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Default Re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

Quote:
Originally Posted by anjan_c2007 View Post
India's present energy provenance break-up is as follows:

Coal and lignite: 53 %
Oil: 29 %
Natural gas: 10 %
Hydel power: 5 %
Nuclear energy: 1.8 %
Renewable or non-conventional energy: 1.2 %
As per figures in wiki (with references included), the share of renewable energy (with hydel energy) is 31.7%. Quoting from the article,

"India's overall installed capacity has reached 329.4 GW, with renewables accounting for 57.472 GW as of 14 June 2017. 61% of the renewable power came from wind, while solar contributed nearly 19%.[1][2] Large hydro installed capacity was 44.41 GW[3] as of 28 February 2017 and is administered separately by the Ministry of Power and not included in MNRE targets.

MNRE renewable electricity targets have been upscaled to grow from just under 43 GW in April 2016 to 175 GW by the year 2022, including 100 GW from solar power, 60 GW from wind power, 10 GW from bio power and 5 GW from small hydro power."

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electr...#Utility_power
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_India
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Old 20th November 2017, 13:20   #14
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Default Re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

I have been thinking over this since a while now. As an enthusiast, I don't want the current lot of petrol cars to go, but as a commuter stuck in traffic most of the times, an electric car makes complete sense. Rather than pushing for BS VI or other more efficient internal combustion engines, why not give incentives to the electric vehicle makers? Let the fuel be capped at BSIV. The authorities are already doing good with buying electric Tigors from Tata, electric buses in Manali and Mumbai.

However, rather than forcing us to get EVs, why not do something on these lines -
1. No tax on all-electric vehicles (including import duties).
2. Incentive to builders to incorporate parking lots with electric charges.
3. Free parking for EVs but expensive / no parking for others in prime area.

Realistically, at least for the foreseeable future, EVs will be restricted to cities - e.g. perhaps a 100 km radius area. Hence EVs could be promoted city basis - metros first, then the smaller towns etc.

This should not cost much to the govt. in terms of money - after all, how many Teslas would be ordered in India. But it would create a lot of hype, aspirations in the next generation to own an electric vehicle. Imagine the many super car owners in India getting EVs on carnet in India and roaming around town - that would be enough of a motive in itself.

5 star Hotels, who have Mercs and others in their fleet, primarily used for airport pickups / drops and local trips could lap up the electric cars. Taxi guys - Ola Uber could also look at cars like Leaf as a taxi. Currently the only options are the e2o and e-Verito.

Hence, let the mass market people, fleet operators, government departments lap up the EVs and let us enthusiasts use the petrol/diesel cars till we run out of fuel.

On a funnier note - just the exemption of the entry toll in Mumbai for electric cars will see people flocking to buy those in Mumbai in hordes.
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Old 20th November 2017, 13:55   #15
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Default Re: BS-VI cars vs electric cars

Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIKE ARRESTOR View Post
I attended a seminar recently, the speaker presented an analysis (energy chain / CO2 etc.) with side by side comparison of an electric vehicle and a conventional car (both comparable).
It showed, in the current scenario, the electric vehicle is more inefficient than a comparable ICE driven car !
Hello, could you elaborate a tad on the conclusions of the presenter ?
i) By how much is the "the E-V more inefficient than a comparable I-C-Eed vehicle in the current scenario" ?
ii) Which link(s) in the "energy chain" does the E-V lose out to the I-C-E ?
iii) Did the presenter have viable alternatives to continuing to pollute the planet ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aroy View Post
While evaluating the pollution load of Electric Cars, you have to consider the contribution of each step - Mining/Pumping of fuel, Production of electricity, Distribution loss, Production of batteries and their replacement/disposal.
Don't we have the same issues with fossil fuels too ?
I mean, they have to be pumped out of the Earth, have to be transported to the refineries, the end-product then has to be transported to retail locations; after all this has been accomplished, it then has to be burned within the engines, wherein it burns inefficiently & produces noise, heat, & a ton of pollutants.

The I-C-E has a litany of deficiencies & we've come to accept them, or live with them, only due to the absence of viable alternatives.
Think of all the I-C-Es idling at traffic lights all over the globe, & then imagine all of them as E-Vs, being silent, efficient, & cool.

P.S. - If somebody wants to explore the Amazon, yes, they can use an oil-burning Land-Rover or something, can the rest of us have our E-Vs please ?
~

Last edited by im_srini : 20th November 2017 at 13:57.
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