[volkman10]

Originally Posted by Sunney

Million dollar questions is "Isn't it foolish buying a fossil-fueled one NOW, when in 2 years many affordable models, and in 3 years cheaper models, mostly 10 lakhs range will be available ? "

Within 2 years, it will be tough to find a buyer for my 2 year 'new' fossil-fueled Car !!

If I spent some money to refurbish and maintain the Linea for 2 more years, I can rid it for an Electric one !

Going by your logic who will buy BS VI vehicles and which manufacturer will be interested in bringing compliant models to market in 2020 ?

In reality in 2020 you will get ' limited ' choice of mass EV's . More so there will not be sufficient infrastructure to support them in 2020.

This is what the outlook for EV's will look like.

Report indicates:

- EVs will make up only 7% of annual vehicle sales in India by 2030

- Will reach 27% of annual vehicle sales by 2040

- by which time 13% of passenger vehicles in the country will be EVs

Suggest to look out for Hybrids which will be available in 2020 and beyond.

Link

[roy_libran]

Sunney - I've toyed with similar sentiments myself, and really WANT an electric in my garage.
But the reality is that EVs are still some time away, and that's not 2 years. Moreover, even when the technology becomes sufficiently mainstream, it'll take some years to reach critical mass, post which only will fossil fuel vehicles lose market interest substantially.

Now, if the purpose of your thread is to choose the most economical option at this point in time, I'd suggest stay on with the Linea, give it some TLC and let it run till the 15 year mark. Hopefully, at that point you'll find very reasonable electric or Hybrid options, and you can move over. This is the option wherein you'll spend the least and gain the most.

[Tapish]

Originally Posted by Sunney

Why should I go for a conventional, polluting fossil-fueled Car, when affordable clean Electric ones are available in couple of years ?

The only thing that an EV does at the moment, is change the place of pollution. Till the time we have electricity generation from coal, EVs will largely be the same in terms of emissions.

Reminds me of US/ Europe and China in the 90s, by shifting all their factories to China, they ensured their countries were cleaner and had less pollution, thus meeting a lot of targets.

[Iyencar]

This is a great question and one that in my opinion will be asked by more and more people in the near future.

Originally Posted by Sunney

Well, my Linea is 8 year old, showing age, was thinking of a new one.
Then read that Electric-fueled cars are a reality, though premium segment alone now, but by 2020 many brands are coming with affordable, fairly long Kms. at single recharge.
And Charging Stations will mushroom, at every nook and corner like ATMs in 2 year time.

Originally Posted by Sunney

when in 2 years many affordable models, and in 3 years cheaper models, mostly 10 lakhs range will be available ? "

The issue here is there is absolutely no guarantee, or to be honest, any positive indication that these are feasible timelines. It's one thing for the government to want to move to electric by 2020 and the manufacturers to want to do so and quite another to actually achieve this or even make significant progress in this direction. The challenges and investments associated are huge. Consider the example of charging stations. In a typical Mumbai society with say a few hundred flats, even parking space is currently at a premium, let alone space for charging a car. What about the time taken to charge the vehicles? Not all batteries are the same, nor the definition of "fast charging". I borrowed a relative's CNG car and got tired of the long lines at the pump pretty darn soon. Waiting in line for a charger that will take at least 30 minutes will not be any better.

Originally Posted by Sunney

Within 2 years, it will be tough to find a buyer for my 2 year 'new' fossil-fueled Car !!

If I spent some money to refurbish and maintain the Linea for 2 more years, I can rid it for an Electric one !


Well, only problem is I may not fetch any money for my Linea. Who will buy an old fossil burner, when great clean ones available ?

What do you think, please.

I strongly recommend holding on to the Linea. You have already taken the depreciation hit and 2 more years is not going to do much more damage. If in two years you see the kind of progress towards electric that you envision now, then you can always upgrade. If not, then there may be other greener options (hybrids perhaps).

If the need for a change is more pressing (and you are the best judge of that) then there are 3 options:
1. High budget: Lexus hybrids
2. Mid range: Camry Hybrid (New or used. Some sparingly used models are going for around 20L).
3. Lower range: CNG as it is greener (The experience of "waiting in line" will help prepare you for the electric charging experience).

[V.Narayan]

Sunney, my thoughts exactly. I have decided to hold off new car purchases till 2020 or 2021 by when at least the first practical EV's or plug-in hybrids of small cars will be available and the trend set in the right direction. After having experienced the smooth torque curve and quietness of a hybrid I can't go back to regular automatics and never to MT.

[Rshrey22]

Does anyone realise that electric cars are a scam?
By using electric cars, sure you are not polluting your immediate environment but still, you need electricity to charge your cars right?

Where does that come from? Power plants that use coal and other fossil fuels to generate electricity.
The more you shift from fossil fuel to electricity, more fossil fuel the power plants consume and thus pollute more.

It's the same thing, you might not be polluting your immediate environment but somewhere, air will be getting worse due to smoke that the power plants emit.

In fact I will safely say that petrol and diesel car's share in pollution is much less than that of power stations. Take the example of Delhi itself, it's old coal based power station is the main cause of air pollution in the national capital.

Power requirements have increased so much so that we are facing power shortage. Do you know why? Because of eRikshaws. There are lacs of them on our roads. Think of the number batteries that are charged daily and multiple times.

And then comes efficiency, how come no one has ever talked about how efficient these cars are?
Take for example, in 100 litres of petrol, my car runs 1200 kms, who knows how much an electric car runs on 100 litres worth of fossil fuel that the power plant burns to charge it??

Think about it!

[IRideScent]

When you know that wait is going to worth smoother and cleaner drive experience why not wait for it. Our own automobile startups are working so hard to achieve this, If Ather can start electric scooter in 2018, we can expect soon electric cars are going to be reality. It may be limited to certain cities initially for commuting.

Originally Posted by Rshrey22

Does anyone realise that electric cars are a scam?
By using electric cars, sure you are not polluting your immediate environment but still, you need electricity to charge your cars right?

Where does that come from? Power plants that use coal and other fossil fuels to generate electricity.
The more you shift from fossil fuel to electricity, more fossil fuel the power plants consume and thus pollute more.

Even with current electric engines the efficiency is quite assuring, and it is developing in leaps & bounds, as most of the automobile investments are on electric.

In fact I will safely say that petrol and diesel car's share in pollution is much less than that of power stations. Take the example of Delhi itself, it's old coal based power station is the main cause of air pollution in the national capital.

In most cases where power plants are away from city limits can sure take advantage by not polluting throughout the city. Isn't it?

Government is focusing on renewable energy as well, As part of the Paris Climate agreement, India had committed to produce 40% of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. It can even grow further above 50%. Read https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/64737298.cms

[benu9714]

Are EVs a scam?

Yes, if one uses fossil powered electricity to run EVs. Solar power is great, but there is none at night when EVs are generally charged.

The bigger problem is : how to manage solar power. Meeting fluctuating daytime power demand with fluctuating solar power, and peak evening demand with fossil power under-utilised during daytime), is the electrical grid manager's big headache.

The good news is : power storage is becoming cheaper very rapidly. One can envisage that by the time EVs are well entrenched, large storage facilities will be in place to couple with mega solar plants, like the 2,300 + mega watt plants in Gujarat and Karnataka. Only then will EVs really rule.

[gthang]

Originally Posted by Rshrey22

Does anyone realise that electric cars are a scam?

Hi there. Wish more people were, what's the trendy word, "WOKE".
Sad to see a lot of people with good intentions fall victim to this and think they are actually doing some good by wanting to switch to electric.
No doubt fuelled by the tree hugger's poster child countries like Norway leading the way. Do they realize that these countries can afford to pay for the switch because they have huge capital from North Sea oil revenue? Is the hypocrisy obvious? No, just to some nutters.

As long as my tail pipe is not emitting, I'm emission free. How sweet ignorance can be sometime.

Cheers

[landcruiser123]

Originally Posted by Sunney

Well, my Linea is 8 year old, showing age, was thinking of a new one.
Then read that Electric-fueled cars are a reality.....

Million dollar questions is "Isn't it foolish buying a fossil-fueled one NOW, when in 2 years many affordable models, and in 3 years cheaper models, mostly 10 lakhs range will be available ? "

If I spent some money to refurbish and maintain the Linea for 2 more years, I can rid it for an Electric one !

I think you're a little too optimistic. I wish I'm proven wrong.

If I were you I'd sell my Linea and but something like a Ciaz AT- cheaper, FE, reasonable performance.

Two particular reasons I'd sell the Linea:
1. It's an 8 year old diesel car. Different regions have started banning 10 year diesels, which would reduce resale value
2. You're already talking about refurbishing costs and delaying un upgrade to something I'd say has a 5% change of hitting the roads in 2 years

Originally Posted by Rshrey22

Does anyone realise that electric cars are a scam?

I wouldn't call it a scam, but the situation is not too good in India. It'll getting better fast with India's commitment to green energy.

I'm currently working on a sustainability project for e-commerce for a large retailer in the US who wants to use EVs to deliver goods. (Can't share too much details)

EVs are cleaner as:
1. The steam can be used in multiple stages in a steam turbine (very complex pieces of engineering) in a coal power plant. We can't make our engines too complicated as it'll increase weight and cost.
2. Improvements like washing coal, electrostatic precipitation of soot etc make coal a little 'cleaner'
3. There are sources of energy such as nuclear, hydroelectric power, biomass, wind, solar etc.

Overall carbon footprint of EVs is much lesser in the US.

I remember a study from MB which said that BS VI diesel cars are will be cleaner than EVs in India. This supports your argument, but two things:
1. What % of vehicles on the road will by BS VI in 5 years? (Probably 1.5-3%)
2. How many vehicles undergo proper routine maintenance to keep them running in perfect health?

Conclusion:
Case today- EVs in India might not reduce carbon footprint much, but can reduce urban pollution in certain areas.
10 years- EVs will be significantly greener than fuel burning vehicles.

My worry- How will government provide electricity to vehicles when they can't guarantee 24x7 electricity for homes?

[chinkara]

Originally Posted by benu9714

Are EVs a scam?

Yes, if one uses fossil powered electricity to run EVs.

Not necessarily. ICE engine thermal efficiency is ~40%. There is additional efficiency loss in the engine output curve, transmission etc. and hence output at the wheel is ~20% at best.

In modern thermal power plants, efficiency is ~44% (can go upto 48%). Battery charge discharge efficiency is ~99% and motor is 96%. Grid to wheel efficiency of EVs is typically ~ 60%. So net ~26%.

What skews this is the T&D losses of ~20%. So the net efficiency becomes 21% - savings become marginal (but still ~5%).

EV enthusiasts argue that if you take T&D losses you should also take the cost and efficiency of transporting fuel from the refinery to the pump - where the losses are more than 20%.

As you very rightly pointed out, solar would help.

Personally, I feel it is all about cost benefit, which is still a few years away for private vehicles. For public vehicles / delivery bikes, it is already there. Again, as you rightly mentioned, Lithium technology and prices are the key.

[whitewing]

Originally Posted by Rshrey22

Does anyone realise that electric cars are a scam?
By using electric cars, sure you are not polluting your immediate environment but still, you need electricity to charge your cars right?

Very true.

The same is true for household garbage, sewage and household electricity(excluding solar power). The reasoning I would assume is that there is a huge benefit due to efficiency of scale that reduces (but not eliminate) the negative impacts.

What is clear however is that an EV appears to be far more efficient considering the energy conversion efficiency - when the energy cost for the air-conditioning/heating is not included.

The point you make about electricity shortages is also very valid in the Indian context. This has something to do with the horrendous infrastructure we have. With DISCOMs having a large percentage of generated power lost/pilfered. From what I have read, we have lot of idling generation resources but the bottleneck is in the distribution.
The whole power generation, distribution and consumption needs to be looked at holistically.

Originally Posted by Rshrey22

Where does that come from? Power plants that use coal and other fossil fuels to generate electricity.

And then comes efficiency, how come no one has ever talked about how efficient these cars are?
Take for example, in 100 litres of petrol, my car runs 1200 kms, who knows how much an electric car runs on 100 litres worth of fossil fuel that the power plant burns to charge it??

What you refer to is known as 'The long tailpipe', and the length of the pipe varies depending on a large number of factors. For ex: energy cost of manufacture of batteries, energy cost of generating the electricity & T&D losses.

While the field is littered with 'sponsored' studies, here's once that seemed interesting given the context.



Source: https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default...ull-report.pdf

Originally Posted by chinkara

What skews this is the T&D losses of ~20%. So the net efficiency becomes 21% - savings become marginal (but still ~5%).

EV enthusiasts argue that if you take T&D losses you should also take the cost and efficiency of transporting fuel from the refinery to the pump - where the losses are more than 20%.

Studies have shown that the regenetative braking covers for these losses. But in India one would assume T&D losses are far more larger than in the western nations.

See: http://www.plugincars.com/belgians-m...cy-129078.html

[chinkara]

Originally Posted by whitewing

But in India one would assume T&D losses are far more larger than in the western nations.

In India it is ~20% (21.8% last published).

In Australia or Belgium (that you quoted), it is ~5%.


The graphs you shared are also informative, thanks. But in this area there is so much agenda driven data that I always look for based assumption / first principle driven analysis.

[whitewing]

Originally Posted by chinkara

In India it is ~20% (21.8% last published).

In Australia or Belgium (that you quoted), it is ~5%.


The graphs you shared are also informative, thanks. But in this area there is so much agenda driven data that I always look for based assumption / first principle driven analysis.

Aye to that. As they say "Data never lie. People do"

[Sunney]

Thanks folks for the enlightening.


How fast the EV revolution?
3 models (Audi, BMW and Merc) will hit roads by next year, followed by Bently and RR too.
By 2022 75 EVs + Plug-in Hybrids will be on road from major mfrs, who already invested $ 105 billions. They are not affordable to Aam Aadmi, I agree.

By 2025, 500 models of EVs will be out on roads, many of them will be common man's models too.

Think of Internet and Mobile phone revolution: Did we expect Rikshawallas will sport a smart phone this fast ans so cheaper ?
Once such a thing become the in-thing, it just wildfire in no time, because need USPs to ride on to bombard to markets for more and more profits.
As such once innovated, products are at our doorsteps astonishingly fast !

Once a USP become hit, all just jump into the bandwagon, good or bad, profitable or not, greener or not.
No way but ride on it !!