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Old 11th May 2018, 21:38   #31
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Default re: Tesla incurs loss of £523 million. EDIT: Now posts a profit!

One of the major differences between Apple (jobs era) and Telsa is that Apple had some amazing supply chain guys aka Tim Cook and team running the show behind the scenes. Also remember that Apple outsources production. Tesla has their own factories and hence they have to deal with all the issues themselves. Hopefully they will sort issues out this year and get to the 5000 cars per week target........Guys, pause for a second 5000 cars per week translates to about 260000 cars per year. This is just model 3. This is a ridiculous number for a car which is essentially still in its 1st year of production. And this is before they start building more factories. Even if they stop accepting any new orders today, they can safely run their factory at full capacity for 2 years! Which investor would not like to be invested in this company?

The way I see it, the fundamentals of the company are very strong. They won't have to resort to window dressing to make their numbers look good.

Key factors that I look for in a company

1) Great products (desirable) in production - Tesla has the model 3, S and X.

2) Great products in the pipeline - Tesla has their Semi, model Y and to an extent the roadster.

3) Can the product demand the MSRP - Not a single dollar off on any Tesla product. That's a good sign even if it isn't permanent. I see them holding on to this price for at least 3-4 years.

4) Marketing - Do the products have this halo around them? In Tesla's case, most of their products have it.

5) Market penetration vs production capacity - They haven't even started selling products (model 3) in most big markets like China, Europe, Australia, Canada and India. This tells me there is still huge potential for Tesla and most buyers will look to switch to electric vehicles in the next 10 years. This inflection point is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the manufacturers. There will be immense demand over the next 10 years and then it will start tapering off. We are right now in the "climb stage" of the graph. We will most likely hit the peak in 7-10 years. A lot of the traditional manufacturers stand to go the way of the dinosaurs if they don't react quickly.

Overall, I think Tesla is in a fantastic position and will remain largely unchallenged for the next few years. Right now the only brand that comes to mind when one thinks of electric cars is Tesla. VW has an amazing product in the Golf electric but there is a 1 plus year wait here in Canada for the e-Golf. The e-Golf in theory makes for a fantastic product. Amazing range of 200+ kms and its just like a regular Golf so it's well built. Is VW serious about that product or are they just exploring the market and just starting out? Given that they're producing a fraction of what Tesla is producing, I don't think they're very serious about it.

In short, buy the Tesla stock if you can. I'd stay put.
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Old 12th May 2018, 02:40   #32
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Default re: Tesla incurs loss of £523 million. EDIT: Now posts a profit!

One thing to consider for Tesla & it’s investors is that the battery technology is advancing rapidly and the competition is investing heavily to build capable products that could make Tesla Tech obsolete (if they don’t capture market soon with their first/fast mover advantage).
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Old 12th May 2018, 10:03   #33
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Originally Posted by petroguzzler View Post
Tesla needs a shrewd businessman at the helm to succeed.

The competitive advantages held by the firm are no longer unique.

An interesting article on HBR:

https://hbr.org/2018/04/to-understan...-history-of-gm
Really interesting to see the similarities. Tesla needs a full time CEO who can take the company forward in Production, sales and ASS.
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Old 13th May 2018, 06:12   #34
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Default re: Tesla incurs loss of £523 million. EDIT: Now posts a profit!

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Originally Posted by androdev View Post
The current leadership position of Tesla in EVs is partly because the big players are waiting for the right time to enter the play. Unlike Tesla, the big players don't have luxury/permission to learn on the job. But once they figure it out at the expense of Tesla, they will come down heavily. Tesla should get it's house in order before that. Key innovation will give you a couple of years of lead and if you don't capitalise within that time, it will be the usual rat race.
Could not be further from the truth. There is nothing to figure out - not electric motors and not lithium ion batteries (Tesla already open sources most of its patents for anyone else to use in whatever way they deem fit). The fruits of the advances in these exisiting technologies will be shared by everyone. What they need to figure out is how to makes electric cars at scale which is what Tesla is figuring out and exactly where Tesla giga factory advantage comes in. The most expensive and the most important and difficult to manufacture component in an electric car is the thing that powers it - the battery and Tesla's got a scale that no one else in the entire automobile landscape has. Once the production issues are sorted out they will be building electric cars faster and cheaper than anyone else.

So if a Toyota or a VW suddenly want to make a lot of electric cars, first they need to figure out where they are going to get all the batteries and second at what cost. Tesla is already cool in the same vein as iPhone when it first came out. So unless they can better Tesla at their own game at a cost which is cheaper than Tesla they stand no chance. And then there's Tesla advantage of software and the charging infrastructure. Remember when everyone used to say Nokia is too big to fail and all it took was half a decade.
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Old 13th May 2018, 07:25   #35
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The batteries are manufactured in Osaka by Panasonic they have an agreement with Tesla to assemble it at the gigafactory https://www.tesla.com/blog/panasonic...nt-gigafactory
Chevy bolt uses batteries from LGE chem.
In my opinion, everyone has the tech, but building a platform and a product in huge volumes that can sell is a tough business problem. It looks like Tesla has the hype, and marketing finesse to push products in volumes.

Last edited by GutsyGibbon : 13th May 2018 at 07:28.
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Old 13th May 2018, 08:09   #36
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Default re: Tesla incurs loss of £523 million. EDIT: Now posts a profit!

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Could not be further from the truth. There is nothing to figure out....

So if a Toyota ..., first they need to figure out...
Contradiction alert. Others will figure out at the expense of Tesla.

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Tesla is already cool in the same vein as iPhone when it first came out...
Toyota too had it's cool iPhone moment with Prius. I have actually visited Toyota factories and studied their hybrid tech in person (worked with a potential supplier to localise certain things in India), their tech may not blow the minds of automobile-forums and create Elon Musk level PR buzz but if you are an engineer you will bet your money on Toyota. Their level of perfection is jaw dropping and their pursuit to perfection on parameters like efficiency, reliability, profit, etc. is relentless. Tesla can create all the buzz they want for the fastest EV, maliciously named 'auto pilot', etc. but as and when Toyota gets into EV, they will be extremely dominant. I am very certain of that. Tesla will have it's place, it's a big market but I am very certain they will not be the global market leaders in EV - it will be Toyota.

Right now Tesla can brag about everything they are doing because no other credible player is working in that space. If not anything, it has helped the brand immensely and they deserve it for their pioneering work in this space. But soon, it will be boring Toyota that will be churning out the equivalents of Prius and Corollas all over the world.

I like Tesla and Elon Must just like most of us for their pioneering work but business is not always pursuit of the buzz. Elon Must has a tendency to do everything out of box and doesn't show interest if there is no buzz. Other established companies might be able to take the best of what Tesla does, combine it with their boring-but-works stuff and come out winners.

Quote:
Remember when everyone used to say Nokia is too big to fail...
Yes Nokia failed. But who succeeded? Apple and Samsung, two well established giants. And now you have a bunch of Chinese companies. I don't see a role model for Tesla in the Nokia example.
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Old 13th May 2018, 08:40   #37
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Prius.
Cool.
iPhone moment.

Seriously? Did I really read these all on the same sentence and being equated? 😂

Prius has single handedly made auto enthusiasts hate electric cars. It looked so weird and boring to hell.

Tesla is everything that a Prius isn't. It made electric cars cool and desirable.
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Old 13th May 2018, 09:36   #38
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Default re: Tesla incurs loss of £523 million. EDIT: Now posts a profit!

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Prius.
Cool.
iPhone moment.

Seriously? Did I really read these all on the same sentence and being equated? 😂
So people giving standing ovation in an overly orchestrated product launch events like Steve Jobs/Elon Musk is the only definition of cool to you? Maybe I should have used the word "breakthrough" instead of "cool". A car with nearly 2 million sales in US alone is definitely cool to me.

Quote:
Prius has single handedly made auto enthusiasts hate electric cars. It looked so weird and boring to hell.

Tesla is everything that a Prius isn't. It made electric cars cool and desirable.
I am talking about general global market, not necessarily about auto enthusiasts. Swift Dzire is the largest selling car in India and all your adjectives apply to it.

Prius is an important car when you consider the gradual shift from ICE to non-polluting cars. The demographic similarities between the early adopters of Prius and Tesla is a known fact. And the tech and components that made cars like Prius possible form the basis for the tech that goes into full EV. The same amazing tech can be used to make sporty and desirable cars like Tesla or just boring reliable family cars like Toyota. It doesn't mean Tesla deserves more admiration.

Like I said, my interest is in the tech and internals and not the consumer desirability of the final product and in my personal opinion Tesla will be shown it's place when the time comes.
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Old 13th May 2018, 10:08   #39
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Originally Posted by androdev View Post
Contradiction alert. Others will figure out at the expense of Tesla.
What will they figure out? The patents are already there for everyone to use and re-use and there is no contradiction. The only figuring out that everyone needs to do is how to make them at scale and at a profit compared to the competition, in this case Tesla.

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Toyota too had it's cool iPhone moment with Prius.
You are kidding right. It doesn't bring Toyota more than 70% of their profits. Heck its not even the largest selling Toyota model. Its the opposite of cool if ever there was.

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I have actually visited Toyota factories and studied their hybrid tech in person (worked with a potential supplier to localise certain things in India), their tech may not blow the minds of automobile-forums and create Elon Musk level PR buzz but if you are an engineer you will bet your money on Toyota.
Their level of perfection is jaw dropping and their pursuit to perfection on parameters like efficiency, reliability, profit, etc. is relentless.
Irrelevant to this discussion.

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Originally Posted by androdev View Post
Tesla can create all the buzz they want for the fastest EV, maliciously named 'auto pilot', etc. but as and when Toyota gets into EV, they will be extremely dominant. I am very certain of that. Tesla will have it's place, it's a big market but I am very certain they will not be the global market leaders in EV - it will be Toyota.
Buzz? A family saloon with four doors which can out accelerate a Buggatti Veyron, has a range of 500 kms, is more practical than any other car in its class and has the running costs both fuel and maintenance better than any other IC powered car is just a buzz. I would say it is a well deserved buzz. Tesla still remains the only credible purely electric car maker in the world. How else do you explain half a million orders by people without even having seen the car in person? They were the first company who made living with electric cars feasible in everyday life, first company to have created an electric car with a decent range, first company who made electric cars not look like an electric car and the first company who made electric cars cool and now everyone is a follower just like Apple and touchscreen phones. Now every big car maker is thinking of going electric or already have atleast one decent electric car in their portfolio. I am not saying Tesla will be the only electric car maker out there I am saying they will be the largest when electric cars become commonplace because they started it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by androdev View Post
Right now Tesla can brag about everything they are doing because no other credible player is working in that space. If not anything, it has helped the brand immensely and they deserve it for their pioneering work in this space. But soon, it will be boring Toyota that will be churning out the equivalents of Prius and Corollas all over the world.
Oh so its Tesla's fault that there is no other credible player. The world is not going to electric suddenly but when it does Tesla is best placed to take advantage because they saw it before anyone else could. Turning your argument over, what if Tesla was a new automobile manufacturer in the current space like everyone else and had great technology. Would you then say that Toyota will be pushed over by this new player? Incumbency is a great advantage but only when it is their space. Tesla cannot beat Toyota at their game in the same way they can't Tesla in their electric car game and we shall see.

Quote:
Originally Posted by androdev View Post
I like Tesla and Elon Must just like most of us for their pioneering work but business is not always pursuit of the buzz. Elon Must has a tendency to do everything out of box and doesn't show interest if there is no buzz. Other established companies might be able to take the best of what Tesla does, combine it with their boring-but-works stuff and come out winners.
Pure speculation on your part. You do not need a business head to run a technology company (If you havent realised, Tesla is as much a technology company as it is a car company). Remember Apple before Steve Jobs with a business head at the helm and Steve came in and the rest as they is history.


Quote:
Originally Posted by androdev View Post
Yes Nokia failed. But who succeeded? Apple and Samsung, two well established giants. And now you have a bunch of Chinese companies. I don't see a role model for Tesla in the Nokia example.
Apple was a well established giant without a single mobile phone in their product portfolio? How does that work mate? I cannot say "oh here is $10 billion and make me a success story like an iPhone" which is why you have companies which are good at what they do. Apple was an outsider which beat the giant Nokia at their own game. Do you think Apple would be a success story if they brought out Nokia like phones with a few extra features. The role model is for the traditional automobile companies because electric cars are not their bread and butter.

There is a VW or a Ford for every Toyota in this world and same will be the case in the electric car business. I dont think even Elon is wanting to be the only electric car maker in the world and is the position your argument seems to be taking.
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Old 13th May 2018, 10:31   #40
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Default re: Tesla incurs loss of £523 million. EDIT: Now posts a profit!

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Like I said, my interest is in the tech and internals and not the consumer desirability of the final product and in my personal opinion Tesla will be shown it's place when the time comes.
Tesla would find it extremely difficult in the long run. Glitzy launch events and tech speak are known to spike interest in the brand/product, but a strong business needs a stable cash flow which Tesla lacks.

Tesla needs to pay attention to boring terms like Economies of Scale and Scope and cash flow to thrive.

Last edited by petroguzzler : 13th May 2018 at 10:36.
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Old 13th May 2018, 10:34   #41
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I am very bearish on Tesla. Seems like a company with a lot of ideas but not a whole lot of expertise in production and finance.

I mean their earlier cars Model S and Model X are 100,000$ luxury cars meant for very rich people. If at all Tesla is to be making a profit it should have been from selling these cars. High price luxury goods= F-A-T margins. Thats why in the Volkswagen group the most profitable brand is Porsche followed by Audi. Not actually VW or skoda.

If Tesla cant even learn how to make money selling 100,000$ cars, how on earth are they going to figure out how to make money on cheaper ones.
Making money on cheaper cars is much more tough. Margins are wafer thin and efficiency is the name of the game. Cant even remember a time when tesla has kept any of their promises. Elon musk has said the company would turn profitable by the end of this year. Looks like fat chance of that happening.
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Old 13th May 2018, 13:44   #42
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Default re: Tesla incurs loss of £523 million. EDIT: Now posts a profit!

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.. The only figuring out that everyone needs to do is how to make them at scale and at a profit compared to the competition, in this case Tesla.
Do you know why this thread was started? To discuss the epic failure of Tesla to produce cars at scale, on schedule at a profit in spite of $45K entry level price for model 3.

Quote:
Irrelevant to this discussion.
If you think cars like Toyota Prius and Nissan Leaf, etc. and their technology are no match for the commodity motor and battery used in Tesla, then more power to you. I wonder why I didn't see this coming!
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Old 13th May 2018, 14:57   #43
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Default re: Tesla incurs loss of £523 million. EDIT: Now posts a profit!

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Maybe I should have used the word "breakthrough" instead of "cool".
Agree.

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Originally Posted by androdev View Post
Swift Dzire is the largest selling car in India and all your adjectives apply to it.
Just when I thought you understood the meaning of cool, you bring Dzire into this thread? iPhone, Dzire? We gotta draw a line somewhere.


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The same amazing tech can be used to make sporty and desirable cars like Tesla or just boring reliable family cars like Toyota.

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Originally Posted by androdev View Post
It doesn't mean Tesla deserves more admiration.
The highlighted part is EXACTLY why IMHO Tesla deserves more admiration. Tesla makes sporty, desirable, reliable, family cars. How could you not admire it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by androdev View Post

Like I said, my interest is in the tech and internals and not the consumer desirability of the final product and in my personal opinion Tesla will be shown it's place when the time comes.
The consumerís desire to purchase is what pays for everything. Undervalue that at your own risk.

And what exactly is the place Tesla deserves to be in your opinion?
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Old 13th May 2018, 15:42   #44
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Default re: Tesla incurs loss of £523 million. EDIT: Now posts a profit!

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Originally Posted by nakul0888 View Post
I am very bearish on Tesla. Seems like a company with a lot of ideas but not a whole lot of expertise in production and finance.

I mean their earlier cars Model S and Model X are 100,000$ luxury cars meant for very rich people. If at all Tesla is to be making a profit it should have been from selling these cars. High price luxury goods= F-A-T margins. Thats why in the Volkswagen group the most profitable brand is Porsche followed by Audi. Not actually VW or skoda.

If Tesla cant even learn how to make money selling 100,000$ cars, how on earth are they going to figure out how to make money on cheaper ones.
Making money on cheaper cars is much more tough. Margins are wafer thin and efficiency is the name of the game. Cant even remember a time when tesla has kept any of their promises. Elon musk has said the company would turn profitable by the end of this year. Looks like fat chance of that happening.
Right now, Tesla isn't worried about making a profit. While they are a business and that's the eventual goal, they are investing more into technology and focusing on making the best product to get a profit in the future.

Tesla was the most shorted stock back when they went public, and look where they are now. Times are changing, people are bullish and it is the best time to buy Tesla stock right now.

You keep forgetting they are a technology company along with car company. Not to mention, they only sold handful of cars. The value of Tesla is because people believe in their future and not because of how many cars they sell and how much profit they make.
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Old 13th May 2018, 16:14   #45
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Default re: Tesla incurs loss of £523 million. EDIT: Now posts a profit!

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Originally Posted by kiku007 View Post
Agree.
Just when I thought you understood the meaning of cool, you bring Dzire into this thread? iPhone, Dzire? We gotta draw a line somewhere.
I admit (again) that cool was a very wrong choice of word especially in the same sentence as iPhone. I definitely meant Toyota's Prius and Nissan's leaf and our humble (Boot on a swift by Maruti) are all breakthrough moments similar to iPhone moment for Apple. They were inflection points for those companies.

Quote:
The highlighted part is EXACTLY why IMHO Tesla deserves more admiration. Tesla makes sporty, desirable, reliable, family cars. How could you not admire it?

The consumerís desire to purchase is what pays for everything. Undervalue that at your own risk.
Leaf and Prius are chart toppers themselves even though they miss the Tesla wow factor. My point really was not to hate Tesla but to say Prius and Leaf have impressive technology. I know a bit about this stuff and I am trying to say technology gap is not as much as people imagine it to be. But people seem to be offended by such a remark.

Quote:
And what exactly is the place Tesla deserves to be in your opinion?
See, I have developed this system of "hype alert". Some companies are extremely good at it. They also make good products for sure but without their hype machine, they would not have such extraordinary results. Tesla cars IMO fall into that category. It's like ISRO doing a Falcon Heavy, nobody would have given a $*^@! And he had the amazing sense of sending a Tesla car as payload, just brilliant but I am afraid that little trick will cost me when I go to buy their car.
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