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Old 7th May 2018, 11:37   #1
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Default A very good presentation on EVs from a global short-selling conference

Hi all,

I keep reading anything automotive around the world and the global electic vehicle industry is something that I find as the next big thing.

Recently, a hedge fund manager ripped apart Tesla on a 156 slide presentation. Whilst his idea was to sell the stock, he has done extensive research on global EVs and components. Here is the presentation link:

https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content...esentation.pdf

It makes me feel so good that so much is happening in the global EV market and creates hopes these are coming to India as well. Let me know your thoughts as well.

Hope this is an interesting read for all..cheers

Last edited by aah78 : 8th May 2018 at 22:08. Reason: Typo fixed: fun -> fund.
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Old 8th May 2018, 16:57   #2
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Default re: A very good presentation on EVs from a global short-selling conference

Haha, thanks for a great catch.
Very informative, though I would say the PPT had few of the "facts" collected from Internet which are either wrongly used (e.g. battery storage control system has been wrongly added to the batter storage system) perhaps to increase the meat or perhaps by mistake. Also some of the news items referred are anonymous kind (e.g. Tyler Durden, L.O.L.) which reduces the seriousness and maybe the genuineness.

Overall I am with the flow of the document, most of the automakers are NOW into the electric vehicle space with committed budgets. And they have something that Tesla is a neophyte in: the service infrastructure. Also their pockets are full with cash whereas Tesla is still going the entrepreneurial way of selling snake oil to collect money.

In addition I am quite surprised (but as an afterthought - makes real sense) at the presence of Energy companies (read as oil and other conventional fuels) marking their territories in electric utility distribution.

Overall, a big thanks to the author and to you vikram!

Last edited by alpha1 : 8th May 2018 at 17:00.
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Old 8th May 2018, 18:12   #3
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Default re: A very good presentation on EVs from a global short-selling conference

Quote:
Originally Posted by vikram31 View Post
Hi all,

It makes me feel so good that so much is happening in the global EV market and creates hopes these are coming to India as well. Let me know your thoughts as well.

Hope this is an interesting read for all..cheers
Thank you! Its a very informative read.
Personally I think EVs will be commodities and the differentiation will be styling, aesthetics and brand. I feel the likes of BMW, Mercedes & Porsche etc. will do it much better than Tesla, when they start rolling out their EVs. But one just can't discount the brilliance of Elon Musk and his first principles thinking.

PS: Page 62, that car looks a lot like Tata Nexon!
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Old 8th May 2018, 19:17   #4
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Default re: A very good presentation on EVs from a global short-selling conference

Interesting but I don't agree with the analysis. The presenter begins with the statement that Tesla is betting on the future and then lists 100s of internet articles about how 'the future' is going to be competitive. If anything, it reconfirms the view that EV is the future and the market will be huge. Tesla doesn't need to lead it to be a successful brand, it can make do with being an average Joe. The valuation is based on a successful future which cannot be discounted by competition alone.

On the tech front, I think the presentation was very generic. We don't know what kind of fuel cell and storage technologies are there and website snapshots doesn't establish anything. But what we can confidently say is that Elon is not an idiot. A particular brand might be little ahead of its peers but together the industry will evolve as a whole. For now, Tesla has brought unparalleled technologies to commercial market which is great for the consumer. Tesla is pushing OTA updates offering entirely new features while BMW is still charging to unlock Apple Carplay for its users.
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Old 8th May 2018, 20:42   #5
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Default re: A very good presentation on EVs from a global short-selling conference

I am guessing the author of this presentation is shorting Tesla stock big time. Easy to put 150 slides together when so much is at stake!

Interesting tussle going on between Tesla short sellers and Musk - who yesterday bought shares in his own company worth nearly $10M in an attempt to send a message to short sellers. Fun!
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Old 9th May 2018, 11:02   #6
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Default Re: A very good presentation on EVs from a global short-selling conference

Interesting viewpoints. Here is my take:

1. EV is going to be the future. I think a lot of what the presenter mentioned was pointed to Tesla making too much noise around being the champion of EVs where competition has steadily caught up and could, infact, be ahead in some areas
2. Unless Tesla demonstrates performance and numbers, one shouldnt bet on the company being the saviour of future technology
3. EV is atleast 10 years away and to keep a company alive till then will need a LOT of cash

In any case I am following the space closely. Infact so much so that I am thinking I will keep my 4 yr old car for 5 yrs more and see if there is an efficient EV offering in India by 2022-2023!
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Old 9th May 2018, 13:38   #7
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Default Re: A very good presentation on EVs from a global short-selling conference

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Originally Posted by Nonstop-driver View Post
But what we can confidently say is that Elon is not an idiot. A particular brand might be little ahead of its peers but together the industry will evolve as a whole. For now, Tesla has brought unparalleled technologies to commercial market which is great for the consumer. Tesla is pushing OTA updates offering entirely new features while BMW is still charging to unlock Apple Carplay for its users.
While granting that Elon is a rare genuine risk-taker who believes in pushing industries forward, Tesla's finances are a shaky at best. Your own example is somewhat counter-productive. While Tesla is indeed pushing OTA updates, BMW is the one making the money from Carplay subscriptions to subsidize its electric vehicle program (just for the record, I hate that nickel and dime-ing too). This just buttresses the point that other car manufacturers are piggy-backing on conventional vehicle sales to develop & release EVs, while Tesla is mostly dependent on bonds/stocks (and people putting money down for the Model 3 ).

While the presentation deck talked about production costs of the Model 3, it doesn't get into how quickly losses pile up when a production line expected to churn out 5000 cars, does half the volume. Think how capital expenditures (and salaries) remain constant while the income is halved.

I think it is important to separate -- however hard it might be -- Elon's own personality/principles/foresight from Tesla the automobile company as it stands currently. While not quite the same, this reminds me of the Tucker Corporation.

Last edited by Amartya : 9th May 2018 at 14:01.
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