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Old 16th November 2018, 19:20   #1
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Default China’s new policy to lead to EV-only future

China has imposed a new law regarding the production of new-energy vehicles that includes plug-in hybrids, battery EVs and fuel cell vehicles. From January 2019, all car makers in China would have to produce a significant portion of such vehicles.

The world’s largest car market would enforce a credit-based system which car makers must abide by. Those producing green vehicles would get credits, which can be sold to other companies as well. Car makers not meeting the credit quota would be fined and face a possibility of shut down of their assembly lines.

By 2025, authorities in China want around 7 million hybrid or battery powered cars to be sold every year. This would translate to around 20% of the total car sales. The first-year target is a 10 percent credit based on factors like the range of the EVs and the propulsion used for the vehicles. The rules will apply to all car makers producing or importing more than 30,000 cars in China. The target would rise to 12 percent in 2020, with the ultimate goal being phasing out of all conventionally powered cars.

BMW has planned to launch two more battery EVs, while Toyota, FCA, Honda and Mitsubishi plan to sell one SUV made by Guangzhou Automobile Group under different badging.

China’s new policy to lead to EV-only future-mahindrae2oplus01.jpg

Source: Bloomberg

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Last edited by blackwasp : 16th November 2018 at 19:23.
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Old 16th November 2018, 23:44   #2
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Default Re: China’s new policy to lead to EV-only future

Political will is key! China actively works on reducing pollution in Beijing, are promoting EVs and also progressing quickly on high-speed rail.

I think Indian government are finally tightening the deadlines for BS6, they should focus on getting more PHEVs and transition to only BEVs by 2040. If the government implements schemes and good tax breaks, companies will come up with products in a matter of 1-2 years.
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Old 17th November 2018, 07:28   #3
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Default Re: China’s new policy to lead to EV-only future

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Originally Posted by landcruiser123 View Post
I think Indian government are finally tightening the deadlines for BS6, they should focus on getting more PHEVs and transition to only BEVs by 2040. If the government implements schemes and good tax breaks, companies will come up with products in a matter of 1-2 years.
Govt focus should be on PHEVs? PHEVs are always meant to stop/slow the transition to BEVs by biggies like Toyota, GM, BMW, etc... Toyota brought Prius PHEV 2 decades back. Prius electric range is just slightly improved over these 2 decades despite battery prices falling at a rapid pace. Chevy Volt is the proper PHEV with reasonable electric range released in 2011. After 7 years, still that is the only PHEV model GM released and their production is around 2000 vehicles per month only.

Indian market will move to BEVs only when the cars will be affordable. The transition will be much later than the markets like China, US and Europe. But the transition starts much earlier than what most people think. I believe it will be in another 5 years as around that time, more affordable BEVs will start appear.
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Old 17th November 2018, 09:17   #4
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Default Re: China’s new policy to lead to EV-only future

The Chinese government was already laying the foundations for this from around a decade.

Ever since they introduced the lottery system ( say in Beijing) putting a cap on the no. of fossil fuel cars that could be sold in a given period, while for EVs a first come first served basis was offered, we can see a clear decline in the sales of fossil fuel based cars. Other cities have followed suit and can see a similar trend - rising demand for EV's and steadily declining demand for fossil fuel cars. What this means to the global automotive industry is anybody' s guess.

Posting some statistics , image credit : qz.com

There is an interesting article on bloomberg on the man behind this EV adoption trend in China, Wan Gang, who is considered the father of the EV industry in China. The article also gives us a view of how China steadily pushed forward its EV agenda and what we are seeing now is just one of the steps in China's grand plan for EV's

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...ina-s-wan-gang

It is admirable seeing their journey from EV policy definition to its execution, we can learn from them.
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Old 17th November 2018, 10:26   #5
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Default Re: China’s new policy to lead to EV-only future

Recently on my china trip i was surprised to see only EV taxis at Shenzhen port, BYD brand. There were 100s of them, damn impressive. Car was pretty good in terms of acceleration and comfort, felt like normal taxi minus the engine noise. Had nice big display up front which was displaying loads of stuff related to battery.

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Old 17th November 2018, 12:18   #6
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Default Re: China’s new policy to lead to EV-only future

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Govt focus should be on PHEVs?
I think charging infrastructure is going to be difficult to implement. With our stop-go traffic conditions- PHEVs will make a big impact on fuel consumption. Agreed that BEVs are the ultimate target- but 5 years is an optimistic timeline (according to me) for affordable and usable BEVs to hit the market in India.

They have barely started going mainstream in the USA with Tesla model 3 and model S. California has a high percentage of EVs. Places like Minneapolis and Chicago don't have many.

Btw, I don't consider the Chevy Volt a PHEV (and I'm guessing it isn't.) Unlike Hybrids, it is the gas engine that is the secondary source of power. It isn't 'hybrid' because the gas engine is mechanically not connected to the wheels at all- it only charges the battery.

Last edited by landcruiser123 : 17th November 2018 at 12:21.
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Old 19th November 2018, 07:04   #7
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Originally Posted by sri_tesla View Post
Toyota brought Prius PHEV 2 decades back.
Prius was only a regular hybrid (not PHEV) until Prius Prime came out in 2017.

But you are right, I don't think there's a market for PHEVs in India especially considering how far battery tech has come along in last few years. I think we'll see BEVs being adopted by the autos and taxis in India much before private ownership would start in any meaningful number.

Quote:
Originally Posted by landcruiser123 View Post
Btw, I don't consider the Chevy Volt a PHEV (and I'm guessing it isn't.) Unlike Hybrids, it is the gas engine that is the secondary source of power. It isn't 'hybrid' because the gas engine is mechanically not connected to the wheels at all- it only charges the battery.
You are confusing Series and Parallel Hybrids with PHEVs and regular hybrids. A PHEV can be a series or a parallel hybrid. Chevy Volt and BMW i3 are series hybrids whereas a Prius Prime is a parallel hybrid. It doesn't have anything to do with if it can be plugged in or not.

Last edited by ampere : 19th November 2018 at 07:34. Reason: back to back posts merged
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Old 19th November 2018, 09:28   #8
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Default Re: China’s new policy to lead to EV-only future

China is betting the house on electric vehicles. And there is a reason for that = AMBITION.

China is now the world's largest market for cars, but none of the Chinese manufacturers are truly global car makers. China completely missed the boat on internal combustion engines, as they were a late entrant to the auto scene.

Now, China wants to lead. And going by their aggression, it sure looks like China will be leading. The USA & Europe simply can't be this aggressive as the car makers there have strong lobbies. As we all know, in China, the orders come from top and no one can argue with them.

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Originally Posted by sri_tesla View Post
Govt focus should be on PHEVs? PHEVs are always meant to stop/slow the transition to BEVs by biggies like Toyota, GM, BMW, etc
Plug-in Hybrids are the worst choice for India due to lack of charging infrastructure. We might as well wait for electric cars.

The best car for India right now is a conventional Hybrid, like the Camry sold here. If a Camry Hybrid can give 15 kmpl in urban traffic, a hybrid hatchback will easily do 25 - 30 kmpl. Electric cars will dominate in the decades to come, but a hybrid can solve a lot of problems TODAY.

Last edited by GTO : 19th November 2018 at 09:30.
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