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Old 25th June 2019, 20:30   #16
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

I think of the below challenges which have to be overcome if at all we are anyway nearer to the projection.
  1. Given the current state of electricity infrastructure, how can we move towards EV unless basics are resolved
  2. Number of power outlets covering at-least vast majority of the country and how does the charging time impacts overall travel (considering it only takes minutes to fill your gas tank)
  3. Most essentially, the cost of charging for EV vs costs of fuel and will it be economic?
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Old 26th June 2019, 09:41   #17
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

Kotak and or any other agency making long term projections in an industry that's changing rapidly every quarter and year is futile. There is this major agency called IEA (International Energy Agency), which projects solar capacity growth every year. Since 2002, they made 13 such projections and year after year there off by large margin while the industry grew leaps and bounds. See the below pic of IEA solar projections. These agencies are obviously funded by fossil fuel companies to give these silly projections year after year.

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It is same with EV industry projections. Bloomberg has been projecting battery price reductions for the last decade. Each year their projections are way off. In 2018, they admitted their mistake of being conservative but they still project the future price declines to be conservative even though a bit better better than earlier.

The reason for solar price declines in the initial 3 decades was due to innovation. Even after the whopping decline from 1980 to 2000's, the price was above the electricity from fossil fuels like coal and gas. But the last decade China entered the game, bringing in huge scale and cost reductions. Coming to wind industry, major European and US manufacturers made great progress in turbine innovation resulting in much higher efficiency, larger turbines. Now, both solar and wind are cheaper than any fossil fuel (coal, gas, etc..) across the world. Hundreds of major financial institutions are shunning coal funding across the world.

Coal capacity in India was supposed to be more than double as per the projection made just 5-6 years back by 2030 to 400+ GW from ~170 GW at that time. But the innovation in solar and wind industry, rapid cost declines in both solar and wind energy means now we are retiring the old plants and replacing them with solar or wind, adding 3-4 times more renewable capacity than coal each year for the last 3-4 years. Coal power plants PLF (usage percentage in simple terms) is going down for the last 5-6 years.

Similar situation will repeat in battery and in turn EV industry. Chinese, Koreans, Panasonic and recently Europe are setting up hundreds of factories investing billions of dollars. Each quarter, year they are upping the investments, adding new plants and new capacities. These new capacities will continue to drive down the battery prices for the next decade. We will see price parity of EVs with ICEs in next 3-4 years (~2022) itself. They may become cheaper after that due to intense competition and new entrants like Chinese companies.

Here are two interesting charts. First one is from Bloomberg how battery prices declined over the last decade (-85%). Second one is technology progression by CATL for the next 5 years. CATL is the world 2nd largest EV battery maker (soon to be 1st) and made deals with VW, BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, etc... to suplly batteries.

Battery price declines from 2010 to 2018:
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CATL Roadmap:
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Old 26th June 2019, 10:15   #18
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by DaptChatterjee View Post
I don't have the exact charging power requirement of EV car (guess it would be slightly different for every make). But if you consider the fact that these are charged by 16amps, single phase sockets, power requirement would not be more than 2kw or thereabouts.
A Tesla P90 has a 90kWh battery so to fully charge it with a 2kW charger (zero to 100%) theoretically it will take 45 hrs. (assuming no transmission losses). Will anyone wait for 2 days to get it charged ? No! The practical way to overcome this major drawback is to go in for fast chargers which can push 20-50kW and this is what I am referring too.
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Old 26th June 2019, 10:18   #19
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

I think the EV journey will be as follows
  1. 2-Wheelers will see the first wave of adoption, with batteries which you can take home to charge, an Ather which requires a dedicated charge point is unlikely to make the cut. The price of EVs will play an important role here, anything about the Activa is unlikely to fly.
  2. 3-Wheelers will see migration in cities with strong curb on emissions like Delhi (the price of a electric rickshaw is very low compared to a Piaggio or Bajaj. This segment will also see higher adoption in rural towns where electricity theft is possible. (You will be surprised that Behrampur, is the largest electric 3W market in India)
  3. 4- Wheelers, adoption wont pick up unless we have cars with range 350-400 kms range (everyone wants to be able to make a short weekend trip atleast without worrying for charging). Unless we hit that mark, EVs will be either fashion statement or govt tenders.
  4. Commercial Segment (MHCV) - The Tipper segment may actually be a good target micromarket for adoption. These vehicles require very high torque, ply within a 50 kms radius, have dedicated parking space in quarries / mines, etc. The Cargo Segment, unlikely to see any adoption unless truck parks with charging infrastructure is built. This is easier than building a network for 4 Wheeler passenger segment.
  5. Commercial Segment (ILCV) - Unlikely to see quick adoption as these products are typically long lead applications like fruit, white good transportation
  6. Commercial Segment (SCV) - Unless this sector sees innovation like a frugal electric rickshaw, the segment will continue on diesel. If someone like a amazon / ikea decided that all our vehicles will be EV, then the game will change.
  7. Commercial Segment (Tractor Trailer) - Port applications can see some adoption (like URAN Belt), but unlikely in other applications.
  8. Commercial Segment (Buses) - City Buses, with the government push for entities like BEST, etc. Unlikely to see adoption in long route buses which practically operate without any downtime.
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Old 26th June 2019, 11:18   #20
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

Thanks GTO - interesting report on a key topic. Would you be able to share the pdf link?

A few thoughts on this topic:

An interesting (and obvious once I heard it) thing some explained to me about battery packs is that the range doesn't bear a linear relationship to size. Example - to double the range, one has to more than double the battery pack size. As the larger pack adds it own dead weight to the vehicle, increasing power demand, negating some of the higher amperage. In this context, two-wheelers are most efficient EV-platform as they need smaller packs to begin with.

Secondly, energy storage & charging tech is still in its infancy. A few things that can change the game:
  • Electrified parking lots & roads (charge as you drive via contact / contact-less underground charging)
  • Denser / newer batteries (e.g. Aluminum Air battery)
  • Robotic battery-pack swapping & super fast-charge / super-capacitor technologies

Such advances would make "refueling" an EV a non issue, removing the biggest hurdle to mass EV passenger car adoption.

Link - World's first "electrified road": https://www.theguardian.com/environm...pens-in-sweden

Last edited by gautam109 : 26th June 2019 at 11:43.
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Old 26th June 2019, 11:37   #21
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by locusjag View Post
Given that 75% of India's power was from Coal as recent as in Financial Year 2017-18 (as per a pie-chart here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electr...ector_in_India), heavens no - I'd rather have India missing the bus in EVs. India is simply not reducing its dependence on Coal fast enough in order to render EVs in India a 'Green' solution for the planet.
!
Exactly my thoughts, plus I don't want to be stuck in a remote area with no electricity available for 2 days to charge my car at least with ICE you can store and carry fuel.

Most of the power generation coming from Thermal Power plants with no plans to switch it to other types in recent years, increased production will end up creating more pollution. Anyone who lives near a power plant can verify how big a problem fly ash is.
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Old 26th June 2019, 12:10   #22
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

I feel a lot of discrepancies in the report IRO battery cost and charging speeds from normal 240Volt sockets. Battery cost is already at almost $100/KWH globally and once India produces its own batteries this should be easily achievable next year. Based on that, the whole calculation changes and EV`s become economically viable within the next 2-3 years ( Provided localisation is achieved).



Please also see above link to get an idea of whats happening.

Being a petrol head all my life and having recently driven a Tesla Model S and a Chevrolet Bolt, I feel the death of the ICE is very near. Its just a matter of getting the product mix right. And, if legacy automakers don't do it, they are dead, cos the Chinese and the startups will come in and wipe them clean.

Anyway change is in the air, and only time will tell how soon, but its inevitable.
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Old 26th June 2019, 12:15   #23
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by Nits83 View Post
Exactly my thoughts, plus I don't want to be stuck in a remote area with no electricity available for 2 days to charge my car at least with ICE you can store and carry fuel.

Most of the power generation coming from Thermal Power plants with no plans to switch it to other types in recent years, increased production will end up creating more pollution. Anyone who lives near a power plant can verify how big a problem fly ash is.
Our coal dependency is falling as per official stats so I do not see any wrong in switching to EVs. And it will have to keep falling as renewable alternatives will keep getting cheaper.

Also, if increase in pollution is really your worry, you should embrace the big move to EVs as that is the cleaner alternative?
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Old 26th June 2019, 12:18   #24
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by anjan_c2007 View Post
The sudden rush and emergency now enumerated by the policy makers in the 2018 draft policy is quite intriguing. What was the reason for the long rest between 2002 and 2018 ? Could there not have been any interim automobile policy after 2002 and before 2018 ? In fact, there should have been at least two or more such policies in keeping with the winds of change sweeping our automobile industry. During the first decade of the new millenium, it was apparent that we are spending upwards of Rs 100,000 crores on our oil import bills annually. Had the planners though about such a visionary changeover to electrics a decade back, we would have been much better equipped with all proper infrastructure and raw material to usher in such a massive revolution on wheels.
A very valid point, in my opinion. This was the time the policy-makers could have taken to incentivise hybrid vehicles, that I still maintain are the logical step in transition from conventional ICE vehicles to EVs. Not only do they address one of the main issues with EV adoption - range anxiety - but with petrol becoming the popular choice of fuel rapidly, they also provide a balanced solution to the problem of voracious appetite for fuel in big-engined petrol-powered cars and SUVs.
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Old 26th June 2019, 12:25   #25
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by gautam109 View Post
Thanks GTO - interesting report on a key topic. Would you be able to share the pdf link?
Of course yes. Download here - Kotak.pdf
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Old 26th June 2019, 12:26   #26
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by locusjag View Post
Given that 75% of India's power was from Coal as recent as in Financial Year 2017-18 (as per a pie-chart here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electr...ector_in_India), heavens no - I'd rather have India missing the bus in EVs. India is simply not reducing its dependence on Coal fast enough in order to render EVs in India a 'Green' solution for the planet.

While this is a valid criticism of EV's "green" credentials, we tend to overlook a few factors in the "coal powered EVs" debate.
  • Most new power plants coming up in India are non-coal - mainly natural gas, wind & solar. Simply because power-plants from these sources are cheaper to build & cheaper to run. In recent bids, solar power is being offered at as low as Rs. 2.55/unit, comparable to coal. So, while coal may be 75% of India's current energy mix, the incremental demand generated by EVs will be largely met by non-coal sources.
  • Second, though India's coal power plants tend to be "dirty", this is changing. A coal power plant with clean-tech installed will produce less pollution than a comparable quantum of ICE engines producing the same power.
  • Adding on to the above, the energy-efficiency of coal power plants is 35%-40%+ vs. around 21% for gasoline vehicles - i.e. more usable power per unit of hydrocarbon burned (see links below).
  • Much of coal pollution can be captured & sequestered via initiatives like flue gas treatment & fly ash recycling to name two.
  • Unlike millions of ICE vehicles dispersing emissions widely, a power plant's emission footprint is limited in radius and generally in less populated locations. (i.e. lesser health impact)
  • Fuel refineries have their own environmental impact, not unlike coal power plants. "Tail-pipe emissions" are only one part of story.
  • Plus pollution generated in transporting fuel from refinery to depot to pump - largely via road & rail. Electricity transmission on other hand is clean.


Links:
  1. Coal plant generation efficiency
  2. Power plant vs ICE vehicle
  3. Gasoline vs EV engine efficiency

Lastly - here's hoping that this happens!:
India's last coal power plant to shut by 2050
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Old 26th June 2019, 12:28   #27
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

This is a very fascinating report. I am a supplier for both raw material and components to the auto sector, the internal buzz is very different from the report. Major players are investing significantly to transition to EV, but there wasn't any discussion on the possible success of the same. With BS-VI, it seems like the only avenue left, be is profitable/successful in the short term or not.
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Old 26th June 2019, 12:36   #28
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by sajaijayan View Post
I feel the death of the ICE is very near. Its just a matter of getting the product mix right. And, if legacy automakers don't do it, they are dead, cos the Chinese and the startups will come in and wipe them clean.
And with the push coming from the government itself, there's not much room left for the legacy automakers but to change & adopt.

Even with lack of government intent, such a transformation can only be postponed, there is no escaping it though.

What the Bajaj's and Srinivasan's are trying to do right now is trying to buy more time for them to adopt, since they were caught napping when the headwinds were showing signs of change.
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Old 26th June 2019, 12:38   #29
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by gautam109 View Post
While this is a valid criticism of EV's "green" credentials, we tend to overlook a few factors in the "coal powered EVs" debate.

Links:
  1. Coal plant generation efficiency
  2. Power plant vs ICE vehicle
  3. Gasoline vs EV engine efficiency

Lastly - here's hoping that this happens!:
India's last coal power plant to shut by 2050
All Valid points but having worked in the power sector and for a major player, I know for sure how slow the renewable energy sources adoption is, regarding cleaner thermal power plants, the equipment costs a lot and companies already have declining profit margins will they invest ??
The resistance to change is much more than we can imagine. I remember my interview in major Power Equipment Manufacturer in 2010, when I said the way forward is to switch to renewable sources of energy, the interviewer was like if we recruit people like you, you will shut down the company.
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Old 26th June 2019, 12:56   #30
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by gautam109 View Post
Most new power plants coming up in India are non-coal - mainly natural gas, wind & solar. Simply because power-plants from these sources are cheaper to build & cheaper to run. In recent bids, solar power is being offered at as low as Rs. 2.55/unit, comparable to coal.
This is the most important point in electricity part of EV debate. Also, there one correction. Rs 2.55/unit of solar is actually much cheaper than coal power in India. Cheapest coal power in India is by NTPC which has average power of Rs 3.2. So this solar power of Rs 2.55/unit is actually 20% cheaper than cheapest coal power. But major point is 3/4ths of coal capacity is by state GENCOs. These are poorly run and many of the power plants are decades old and need lot of annual maintenance costs. Average price for these state owned power plants is more than Rs 5 and for many old plants its Rs 6 to 7. Recently few states like Punjab decided to close few old plants due to increasing maintenance costs.

All state DISCOMs have huge debts due to subsidy power. Actual cost of power production is much higher than their power price for most of the consumers. State govts absorb these costs and that is the reason for the survival of the thermal power plants in India. Otherwise 90% of coal plants are not financially viable.

But solar and wind are done through auctions. Private developers will setup the plants and provide the power to discoms at per kWh basis price won through auction. DISCOMs does not need to setup these plants by taking thousands of crores debt or maintain them.
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