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Old 18th September 2019, 14:54   #46
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by stanjohn123 View Post
According to this report https://mercomindia.com/solar-power-...4-yoy-q1-2019/, 90% of India's electricity generation is still from Non-renewable sources of energy.

Despite increasing Renewable capacity additions at a rapid rate, the amount of electricity generated by renewable sources is far less due to its lower capacity factor.

If this is the case, I see no benefit for India in terms reducing pollution in switching over to EV's.



Would be interested to know how that conclusion was arrived at?
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Old 18th September 2019, 14:57   #47
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Would be interested to know how that conclusion was arrived at?
How is pollution reducing if we are using same old fossil fuels to generate electricity that mainly power EV vehicles ?

We are just replacing Petrol/Diesel in ICE's with Coal to power the batteries in EV's.
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Old 18th September 2019, 15:05   #48
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by shibujp View Post
The government has proposed an income tax rebate of upto 1.5 lakhs on the interest of loans for customers who buy EV vehicles. With the likes of Maruti coming in with the electric Wagon R next year at a rumored 12 lakhs it would be interesting to see if such sops boost ownership.

Drive on,
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At 12 lacs many people would still stick to Petrol car which retails at about 6lacs. To recover additional 6 lacs one has to run about 1lac KM or more. Most of the Wagon R would take atleast 6-7 years to cover. I am not even counting interest on the extra 6 lacs. For Electric cars to sell below 3 should happen:
1. Govt. ban on Internal Combustion engine.
2. Fuel prices hit 200-300 mark.
3. Electric cars priced on par with fossil fuel based cars.
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Old 18th September 2019, 15:16   #49
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by PrideRed View Post
At 12 lacs many people would still stick to Petrol car which retails at about 6lacs. To recover additional 6 lacs one has to run about 1lac KM or more. Most of the Wagon R would take atleast 6-7 years to cover. I am not even counting interest on the extra 6 lacs. For Electric cars to sell below 3 should happen:
1. Govt. ban on Internal Combustion engine.
2. Fuel prices hit 200-300 mark.
3. Electric cars priced on par with fossil fuel based cars.
It was rightly said on the report shared by GTO. To recover the huge initial investment in EV car's, a person must drive at least 30,000 Km's a year. Then he will probably recover that money in 4-5 years. I don't know anyone yet who drives that long in a year except taxiwallas.
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Old 18th September 2019, 16:10   #50
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by stanjohn123 View Post
How is pollution reducing if we are using same old fossil fuels to generate electricity that mainly power EV vehicles ?

We are just replacing Petrol/Diesel in ICE's with Coal to power the batteries in EV's.
Do remember that electricity can be generated in multiple ways. From solar to hydro to even geothermal, there are various possibilities of reducing pollution and get clean energy - at least the option to go clean opens up if we move to EVs.

Further, use of pollution control equipment like multi-cyclones, scrubbers, bag filters and ESP's in small and large fossil fuel plants leads to a significant reduction of pollutants in the exhaust air by a significant amount so it's not like the exhaust air is untreated - the residual fly ash though is another problem (being addressed by conversion to bricks for construction now)!

The issue to investigate is whether the state run plants are confirming to the laid out norms or not (definitely not as they are all old and dilapidated plants!).

The natural gas plants are quite clean burning in comparison and contribute significantly less to air pollution.
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Old 18th September 2019, 16:31   #51
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by reppy View Post
Do remember that electricity can be generated in multiple ways. From solar to hydro to even geothermal, there are various possibilities of reducing pollution and get clean energy - at least the option to go clean opens up if we move to EVs.

Further, use of pollution control equipment like multi-cyclones, scrubbers, bag filters and ESP's in small and large fossil fuel plants leads to a significant reduction of pollutants in the exhaust air by a significant amount so it's not like the exhaust air is untreated - the residual fly ash though is another problem (being addressed by conversion to bricks for construction now)!

The issue to investigate is whether the state run plants are confirming to the laid out norms or not (definitely not as they are all old and dilapidated plants!).

The natural gas plants are quite clean burning in comparison and contribute significantly less to air pollution.
Yes I know and I was talking with respect to India on how it generates electricity. Coming close to year 2020 we have reached only 10% of renewable capacity plants which includes Solar and Wind to generate electricity.

Which means India has got a long long way to go to make any impact in terms of reducing pollution with it's aggressive push for EV vehicles. Because we still heavily depend on coal to generate our electricity.

Another issue is governments very low tariff's plans are affecting new capacity additions. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com...le26924614.ece

There were news of many private players unhappy with the fare being set by the government in this regard, hence the auctions got lukewarm responses.

We are shouting out loud and blowing our trumpets to the media without addressing underlying issues. Truth is we are light years behind other countries in setting up a proper infrastructure plus the recent policies are not really encouraging anyone to invest directly in renewable capacity additions.

If we are still going to depend on coal to generate majority of our electricity needs, it's really discouraging in the environment front.
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Old 18th September 2019, 17:25   #52
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by stanjohn123 View Post
How is pollution reducing if we are using same old fossil fuels to generate electricity that mainly power EV vehicles ?

We are just replacing Petrol/Diesel in ICE's with Coal to power the batteries in EV's.
IMO, the reduction will be very significant. Just because of the fact that when we are burning fossil fuels in cars, we are throwing away a lot of energy. E.g. when idling, at start stop traffic, keeping the engine on just to run the AC, badly maintained engines etc.

Just imagine what-if we can achieve the maximum possible fuel efficiency irrespective of the driving conditions, we waste zero fuel when standing still, all the vehicles perform at their optimum. Don't you think we will save a lot of fuel. This will happen if we use EVs even if we are using electricity generated by coal.

It was also found that EVs are more efficient in slow moving traffic (even with AC on) as compared to highway runs, so the energy savings from EVs will maximum at places where we right now spend (rather waste) the most amount of energy.
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Old 18th September 2019, 17:51   #53
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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IMO, the reduction will be very significant. Just because of the fact that when we are burning fossil fuels in cars, we are throwing away a lot of energy. E.g. when idling, at start stop traffic, keeping the engine on just to run the AC, badly maintained engines etc.

Just imagine what-if we can achieve the maximum possible fuel efficiency irrespective of the driving conditions, we waste zero fuel when standing still, all the vehicles perform at their optimum. Don't you think we will save a lot of fuel. This will happen if we use EVs even if we are using electricity generated by coal.

It was also found that EVs are more efficient in slow moving traffic (even with AC on) as compared to highway runs, so the energy savings from EVs will maximum at places where we right now spend (rather waste) the most amount of energy.
But there is a high % transmission and distribution loss with electricity already. Almost 20% of generation https://m.indiamacroadvisors.com/rep...n-transmission

When we add more EV's to the grid this is only going to worsen as we will be needing to import and burn more coal. The issue here is how badly we are adopting this tech in India as we have too many limitations which no one is addressing properly.
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Old 18th September 2019, 18:08   #54
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by Nits83 View Post
All Valid points but having worked in the power sector and for a major player, I know for sure how slow the renewable energy sources adoption is, regarding cleaner thermal power plants, the equipment costs a lot and companies already have declining profit margins will they invest ??
The resistance to change is much more than we can imagine. I remember my interview in major Power Equipment Manufacturer in 2010, when I said the way forward is to switch to renewable sources of energy, the interviewer was like if we recruit people like you, you will shut down the company.
You are 100% right. Media and Govt are showing something totally different.

At least here in south the renewable energy source of adoption is very low because of the underlying fact that they have kept the tariffs too low for anyone to be encouraged to invest in it. Everyone will first see their ROI before anything else.

Thermal power plants are highly polluting and no one will invest in any components which will make their already low profit making plants more cleaner for the environment. Else the retail tariffs will have to increase but this is not possible because they are already high.

Then we will have to talk about all the transmission and distribution losses which again wastes the dirty fuel which is burned to generate electricity.
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Old 18th September 2019, 23:15   #55
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by stanjohn123 View Post
How is pollution reducing if we are using same old fossil fuels to generate electricity that mainly power EV vehicles ?

We are just replacing Petrol/Diesel in ICE's with Coal to power the batteries in EV's.
Not really sure if that is right since there is a lot of energy being spent on extraction, refining and transport of petroleum products for you to fill up the petrol/diesel in your car.
Think its much more efficient to transport electricity rather than petroleum products!

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Originally Posted by stanjohn123 View Post
Coming close to year 2020 we have reached only 10% of renewable capacity plants which includes Solar and Wind to generate electricity.

If we are still going to depend on coal to generate majority of our electricity needs, it's really discouraging in the environment front.
10%?

Below are the percentages from the Power Ministry.
https://powermin.nic.in/en/content/p...ance-all-india
Coal - 54.3%
Lignite - 1.7%
Gas - 6.9%
Diesel -0.2%
Nuclear -1.9%
Hydro - 12.6%
RES - 22%
(Note: RES (Renewable Energy Sources) include Small Hydro Project, Biomass Gasifier, Biomass Power, Urban & Industrial Waste Power, Solar and Wind Energy.)

So the figures for renewables are 22 + 12.6 =33.6%


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Originally Posted by stanjohn123 View Post
But there is a high % transmission and distribution loss with electricity already. Almost 20% of generation https://m.indiamacroadvisors.com/rep...n-transmission

When we add more EV's to the grid this is only going to worsen as we will be needing to import and burn more coal. The issue here is how badly we are adopting this tech in India as we have too many limitations which no one is addressing properly.
The losses are usually of the range of 5 -10% (including transmission and distribution) the world over though in India it has got to do more with the distribution losses due to other reasons.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=105&t=3

If we are to look at the complete picture, then it should include the entire gamut of energy required for operations for the current car industry as well.

  1. The amount of energy required to manufacture a complete car - Assuming the drive train to be the major difference in the components between the ICE and the EV, the ICE would have 2000+ parts whereas the EV would have 20+.
  2. The efficiency of the car - ICE efficiency is like 15-20% at the max (fuel to the wheels) whereas most of the EVs its 65-70% (grid to the wheels).
  3. Efficiency depending up on the type of power used. (Efficiency of Power Plant * Efficiency of EV)
    • Steam power plant would be (30% * 65% = 20%) which is on par with the ICE.
    • Diesel Power plant (35% * 65% = 25%)
    • Nuclear Power Plant (55%* 65% = 35%)
    • Hydro Electric (85% * 65% = 55%)
  4. Distribution losses – The energy required for the transportation costs of electricity is nothing compared to the energy costs for transporting oil to petrol bunks. Also the losses (like 5%) during distribution are much lesser.
  5. Extraction energy costs – Energy used for Extracting crude oil and refining to produce vs Energy used for extracting Lithium and carbon
  6. Servicing energy costs over the life time of a car – EVs require very little servicing though how much is a question mark.
So the EV has a worst case efficiency which matches the best efficiency of ICE with lower distribution and servicing energy costs and offers recyclability. Extraction energy costs can be debatable till hard numbers come by.
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Old 19th September 2019, 22:53   #56
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by PrideRed View Post
At 12 lacs many people would still stick to Petrol car which retails at about 6lacs. To recover additional 6 lacs one has to run about 1lac KM or more.
No contest there. I would add one more point to your list namely the adequate availability of charging points. This one aspect I feel would greatly spur the adoption of EV even in the price range of the Kona etc. For example a charger that could charge batteries to 80% charge in say 5 minutes every 250 kms.

Drive on,
Shibu.
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Old 22nd September 2019, 23:04   #57
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Default Re: Kotak: Merely 5% of Indian cars will be electric by 2030

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Originally Posted by stanjohn123 View Post
But there is a high % transmission and distribution loss with electricity already. Almost 20% of generation https://m.indiamacroadvisors.com/rep...n-transmission

When we add more EV's to the grid this is only going to worsen as we will be needing to import and burn more coal. The issue here is how badly we are adopting this tech in India as we have too many limitations which no one is addressing properly.
Valid point. But there are also TnD losses in diesel / petrol - i.e. fuel burned in getting the fuel to the pump!
And Indian T&D losses can come down to around 5% to 10% (best:worst case range) with better networks, better metering, policing and lower corruption / populism. There's a lot of effort on reforms towards this end, including privatizing Transmission & Distribution part of the power supply chain.
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