[GTO]

In this era of "electric car" & "autonomous driving" information overload, finally there is a realistic report that I agree with. It's now an accepted fact that EV adoption among 2-wheelers, 3-wheelers & commercial segments will be the fastest.

That said, Kotak says merely 5% of passenger vehicles will be electric by 2030, and in that too, a majority will be from the taxi segment. I think we'll hit 5% a handful of years earlier, but India is certainly not ready for an EV revolution the way that the government & media wants you to think.

Refer to page 22 below - direct link to image

[GTO]

Continuing with the report (30 attachment limit / post). Full PDF here - Kotak.pdf

[avishar]

Well that's not surprising. 'Missing the bus' has always been India's forte. China, as of May 2019 has already hit 5.6% pure EV 4wheelers.

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/06...-may-2019.html

[avisidhu]

Thanks for sharing GTO! A really insightful document for anyone to understand current Cost of Ownership comparisons. As for future, a bit tough to predict as a lot could change.

For instance, non availability of electricity has been mentioned as a major limiting factor. However both reach and availability of electricity has seen a significant improvement over the past 15 odd years. Even in cities, we have now reached a point where an electricity 'cut' irritates even the old timers I have a limited and mostly anecdotal experience on the rural front, but noticed even more dramatic improvement there.

We have very insightful threads and posts on this topic so it's a futile exercise adding anything of value. But still, one Change management technique could help: rather than attempting to thinly spread infrastructure, make a success story at one or two urban clusters (Bangalore in south and Jaipur/Chandigarh in North for instance). Have an aggressive spread of charging/battery swapping points through subsidization and tie ups with private players. If the likes of Reliance and Essar can extend facilities at existing pumps, even better! The sight of people being able to charge their scooters/bike at a fraction of a cost will make a huge impact: not everything hinges on cost of ownership alone, as long as the difference is not substantial. Aspirational value could easily surpass this challenge for instance.

Finally 5% is not a small number considering the size of the pie and the YOY growth being projected, but we are clearly a decade behind in the entire endeavor.

[abhishek46]

Going by the pathetic state of electric infrastructure on offer & the massive costs for high capacity batteries, this 5% prediction seems to be fairly optimistic.
Even 2% market will be tough to achieve.

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by avishar

Well that's not surprising. 'Missing the bus' has always been India's forte. China, as of May 2019 has already hit 5.6% pure EV 4wheelers.

Given that 75% of India's power was from Coal as recent as in Financial Year 2017-18 (as per a pie-chart here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electr...ector_in_India), heavens no - I'd rather have India missing the bus in EVs. India is simply not reducing its dependence on Coal fast enough in order to render EVs in India a 'Green' solution for the planet.

If China is seeing a rise in EVs, it is good because they've dropped their reliance on Coal for power generation. As per this source, China's power demand rose YoY by 3% in 2018, while their share of Coal has dropped in that same year - http://ieefa.org/coals-share-of-chin...ow-60-in-2018/

However, coal accounted for only 59 percent of China’s overall energy consumption last year, down 1.4 percentage points from 2017, while gas, nuclear power and renewable energy combined accounted for 22.1 percent, up 1.3 percentage points.

Power generation from Coal is the biggest greenhouse gas emission center for mankind to attack and China has been performing commendably. More non-coal power to them for switching to EVs!

[avishar]

Originally Posted by locusjag

Given that 75% of India's power was from Coal as recent as in Financial Year 2017-18 (as per a pie-chart here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electr...ector_in_India),!

You are quoting old numbers. Installed capacity for coal generation as of 18-03-2019 is 54.6 percent.

https://powermin.nic.in/en/content/power-sector-glance-all-india

India is probably the fastest country in the world in commissioning solar and wind generation projects.

[KL01toKA03]

Originally Posted by locusjag

I'd rather have India missing the bus in EVs. India is simply not reducing its dependence on Coal fast enough in order to render EVs in India a 'Green' solution for the planet.

Electric cars are better for environment, even if coal is used for power generation.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-rely-on-coal

Anyway, coal and other non-renewable sources will get more expensive, and solar power generation will inevitably increase. Also, it is feasible to generate electricity from homes/offices. By 2030, I would be surprised if coal exceeded a small percentage of the power produced.

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by KL01toKA03

Electric cars are better for environment, even if coal is used for power generation.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-rely-on-coal

That report's hypothesis is based on the assumption that EVs will represent a progressively lower emission mode of transport, as more and more countries adopt cleaner energy. Quoting from the article -

BNEF’s research assumes that electric cars will become cleaner in the coming years as utilities close coal plants and draw more energy from wind and solar farms, a process well underway almost everywhere except Southeast Asia.

As Avishar pointed out above however, if India is indeed quickly shunning Thermal power for other sources, we should be good.

[speedmiester]

Personally I am all set to take a full plunge into EVs. Having owned an half baked EV for 3 yrs and covering almost 25K KMs, I have seen more pros than cons in an EV.

The convenience of an automatic in mad traffic, the ease of use, the per km cost, minimal maintenance are hard to ignore in congested cities.

The on set of proper EVs with range of more than 300KMs will make a lot of sense for more than 70% of car owners. The number of times I have used my car for 300Kms in a day are less than 15 days in a year and mostly planned drives. On such occasions, an alternative can easily be found.

[classicselva]

I feel we will be forced to use the EVs earlier than what we predict. And for sure the use of EVs will increase with the oil sources running out.

Any new technology takes a moment to come to us (India), once it is in, it multiplies and extends exponentially.

Once the common man understands the benefit, I am sure the adoption will be faster.

[anjan_c2007]

Thanks Rushabh for starting the discussions. Yes, we are for reducing the burgeoning oil import bills, the pollution and the medical, especially lung related problems faced by the population due to overuse of fossil fuel powered motor vehicles. The growth in the fossil fuel powered cars and other classes of motor vehicles have been rampant and meteroic, eversince the opening of the market floodgates with the then government's liberalisation and globalisation policies of 1991.

The draft National automobile policy of March 2018 by the Ministry of Heavy Industry for the first time speaks about alternate energy powered motor vehicles. The previous automobile policy of 2002, the immediate one before the 2018 policy, spoke more about low emission, rather than touching upon fuel efficiency or alternate energy sources to power the engines :-

2002 Automobile Policy excerpt

Encouragement of use of low emission fuel technology and formulation of an auto fuel policy to plan a roadmap for auto fuel quality as per emission norm requirement and ensure availability of appropriate auto fuels / fuel mixes at minimum social costs, across the country.

2018 Automobile Policy excerpt

Green mobility
7.2.8 Lack of clarity on Government strategy for green mobility
Policies and announcements by different government ministries and supporting bodies in the recent past will need to be aligned on the green technologies that will be the focus of government incentives and infrastructure investments. Investments and products decisions to ramp-up the green mobility manufacturing base will require a long-term roadmap and vision.
7.2.9 Low demand for green vehicles
Large-scale adoption of green mobility options is limited by consumer concerns regarding technical performance of vehicles, reliability and dependability, limitation on range and refueling options, higher upfront costs etc. Consumer awareness of the benefits of green vehicles along with incentives for
purchase in the initial years will be essential to boost adoption.
7.2.10 Limited supply of green mobility vehicles and components
Manufacturing capacity in India for green mobility components and vehicles has significant growth potential currently, compared to countries such as China and United States. This presents an opportunity to address higher prices and limited options of green mobility vehicles to consumers which in-turn restricts experience and awareness. India can reduce dependence on imports for green vehicles and components by nurturing and developing the domestic supply eco-system.
7.2.11 Limited infrastructure established for green mobility
Most green mobility options require exclusive infrastructure for refueling and charging. Current public infrastructure for green mobility technologies such as CNG, LNG and Electric Vehicles is limited to cities and selected clusters. Nationwide network expansion needs to go hand-in-hand with other demand and supply side measures, to pro-actively address consumer anxieties regarding adoption and usage.

The sudden rush and emergency now enumerated by the policy makers in the 2018 draft policy is quite intriguing. What was the reason for the long rest between 2002 and 2018 ? Could there not have been any interim automobile policy after 2002 and before 2018 ? In fact, there should have been at least two or more such policies in keeping with the winds of change sweeping our automobile industry. During the first decade of the new millenium, it was apparent that we are spending upwards of Rs 100,000 crores on our oil import bills annually. Had the planners though about such a visionary changeover to electrics a decade back, we would have been much better equipped with all proper infrastructure and raw material to usher in such a massive revolution on wheels.

And how can we ignore the two top CEO's Mr Rajiv Bajaj and Mr Venu Srinivasan of our automobile industry ,who were a few days back extremely vocal and critical in their discussions at the Niti Aayog about the speeding up of the dealine to introduce 100 % sub 150 cc "electric" two wheelers ? They had in simple words said that we export 3 million two wheelers per annum worth US $ 3 billion and that the government wants to kill the goose that is laying golden eggs.

(some excerpts of the Niti Aayog discussions )
Srinivasan made the presentation on behalf of Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the industry lobby group. Bajaj and Srinivasan subsequently laid out their case and responded to queries.

Niti Aayog officials had argued that the issue was not new and had been deliberated upon at the Global Mobility Conference last year, which many industry chieftains had skipped. Srinivasan said the conference had not been meant for policy-making.

Niti Aayog got support from fledgling two-wheeler EV startups, represented by Tarun Mehta, founder of Ather Energy, which makes electric two-wheelers, and Sulajja Motwani of the Firodia group.

Other EV startups backed their views but Srinivasan pointed out that their volumes were low. “People who want to do it tomorrow are making 1,000-odd vehicles annually,” he said.

A startup entrepreneurs cited the example of China, which produces 20 million electrically powered motorcycles annually. Since EVs are more expensive, they will require state assistance in this price-sensitive sector, Bajaj said. “I’m in awe of the apparent willingness to subsidise EVs — an approximate ? 1 lakh per vehicle — to help achieve reasonable price parity with ICE two- and three- wheelers for an estimated minimum industry size of 25 million by 2025,” Bajaj said.

Srinivasan and Bajaj said they are in favour of monetary and other incentives for transitioning to EVs.

Niti Aayog officials said the courts could impose a ban if the industry did not act voluntarily. They pointed to high levels of pollution and the fact that fast action would help put India on the cutting edge of EV technology, unlike in some other high-tech areas.

Bajaj felt this view was unrealistic. A ban on ICE vehicles would mean importing lithium ion batteries, the costliest component in EVs, from China, offseting any drop in oil imports. Further, India’s electric grid won’t be able to support the charging of 25 million EVs at night, Bajaj and Srinivasan said. “This is a complex issue… it needs adequate thought,” Srinivasan said, adding that it will have a significant bearing on an industry that employs a million. “Every manufacturer is working on EVs.”

Bajaj disputed the contention that EVs are superior in terms of environment and experience.

“In spite of all the fiscal sops in place, the great electric revolution apparently can't get off the ground unless it stands on the crutches of banning internal combustion engine two and three wheelers,” Bajaj said. “Indian two and three wheelers that are the global benchmark for low emission and high fuel efficiency must be banned within the next few years with scant deliberation on where the employed are to go or from where the electricity for charging is to come.”

China’s ban on ICE vehicles meant it lost out on the global marketplace, which was filled by Indian manufacturers such as Bajaj Auto and TVS Mo ..

Above quotes from :-

//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/69920504.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medi um=text&utm_campaign=cppst

[tj123]

I am all for EV’s but has anyone done a study on the impact of EV’s on the electrical grid. For example in my apartment complex there are roughly 200 houses and hypothetically assuming 50% convert to EV’s. Assuming an average power drawn is 20Kw/car then imagine the load on the transmission lines and the overall multiplier effect on the grid.
Here is how UK is preparing there grid an interesting read.https://www.engerati.com/transmissio...ctric-vehicles

[Rajeevraj]

My opinion is different from the general sentiment of the thread. While the governments projection does look unlikely, considering the rate at which some of the disruptions have happened in India, I will not be surprised if 4 years down the line, we look back and say-We all got it totally wrong.

[DaptChatterjee]

Originally Posted by tj123

Assuming an average power drawn is 20Kw/car then imagine the load on the transmission lines and the overall multiplier effect on the grid.

I don't have the exact charging power requirement of EV car (guess it would be slightly different for every make). But if you consider the fact that these are charged by 16amps, single phase sockets, power requirement would not be more than 2kw or thereabouts.