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Team-BHP Support ![]() ![]() | ![]() In this era of "electric car" & "autonomous driving" information overload, finally there is a realistic report that I agree with. It's now an accepted fact that EV adoption among 2-wheelers, 3-wheelers & commercial segments will be the fastest. That said, Kotak says merely 5% of passenger vehicles will be electric by 2030, and in that too, a majority will be from the taxi segment. I think we'll hit 5% a handful of years earlier, but India is certainly not ready for an EV revolution the way that the government & media wants you to think. Refer to page 22 below - direct link to image ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Last edited by GTO : 25th June 2019 at 12:55. |
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Team-BHP Support ![]() ![]() | ![]() Last edited by GTO : 26th June 2019 at 12:24. |
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Senior - BHPian ![]() Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: kolkata/bangalore,india
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| ![]() Well that's not surprising. 'Missing the bus' has always been India's forte. China, as of May 2019 has already hit 5.6% pure EV 4wheelers. http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/06...-may-2019.html Last edited by avishar : 25th June 2019 at 13:02. |
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BHPian ![]() Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Vancouver
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| ![]() Thanks for sharing GTO! A really insightful document for anyone to understand current Cost of Ownership comparisons. As for future, a bit tough to predict as a lot could change. For instance, non availability of electricity has been mentioned as a major limiting factor. However both reach and availability of electricity has seen a significant improvement over the past 15 odd years. Even in cities, we have now reached a point where an electricity 'cut' irritates even the old timers ![]() We have very insightful threads and posts on this topic so it's a futile exercise adding anything of value. But still, one Change management technique could help: rather than attempting to thinly spread infrastructure, make a success story at one or two urban clusters (Bangalore in south and Jaipur/Chandigarh in North for instance). Have an aggressive spread of charging/battery swapping points through subsidization and tie ups with private players. If the likes of Reliance and Essar can extend facilities at existing pumps, even better! The sight of people being able to charge their scooters/bike at a fraction of a cost will make a huge impact: not everything hinges on cost of ownership alone, as long as the difference is not substantial. Aspirational value could easily surpass this challenge for instance. Finally 5% is not a small number considering the size of the pie and the YOY growth being projected, but we are clearly a decade behind in the entire endeavor. Last edited by avisidhu : 25th June 2019 at 13:23. |
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Senior - BHPian ![]() Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Bangalore
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| ![]() Going by the pathetic state of electric infrastructure on offer & the massive costs for high capacity batteries, this 5% prediction seems to be fairly optimistic. Even 2% market will be tough to achieve. |
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Senior - BHPian Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Chennai
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If China is seeing a rise in EVs, it is good because they've dropped their reliance on Coal for power generation. As per this source, China's power demand rose YoY by 3% in 2018, while their share of Coal has dropped in that same year - http://ieefa.org/coals-share-of-chin...ow-60-in-2018/ Quote:
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Senior - BHPian ![]() Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: kolkata/bangalore,india
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https://powermin.nic.in/en/content/power-sector-glance-all-india India is probably the fastest country in the world in commissioning solar and wind generation projects. | |
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BHPian Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: Bangalore
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-rely-on-coal Anyway, coal and other non-renewable sources will get more expensive, and solar power generation will inevitably increase. Also, it is feasible to generate electricity from homes/offices. By 2030, I would be surprised if coal exceeded a small percentage of the power produced. | |
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Senior - BHPian Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Chennai
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Senior - BHPian ![]() Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: bangalore
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| ![]() Personally I am all set to take a full plunge into EVs. Having owned an half baked EV for 3 yrs and covering almost 25K KMs, I have seen more pros than cons in an EV. The convenience of an automatic in mad traffic, the ease of use, the per km cost, minimal maintenance are hard to ignore in congested cities. The on set of proper EVs with range of more than 300KMs will make a lot of sense for more than 70% of car owners. The number of times I have used my car for 300Kms in a day are less than 15 days in a year and mostly planned drives. On such occasions, an alternative can easily be found. |
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BHPian ![]() Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Chennai
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| ![]() I feel we will be forced to use the EVs earlier than what we predict. And for sure the use of EVs will increase with the oil sources running out. Any new technology takes a moment to come to us (India), once it is in, it multiplies and extends exponentially. Once the common man understands the benefit, I am sure the adoption will be faster. Last edited by CrAzY dRiVeR : 26th June 2019 at 22:11. Reason: Typo |
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Distinguished - BHPian ![]() ![]() | ![]() Thanks Rushabh for starting the discussions. Yes, we are for reducing the burgeoning oil import bills, the pollution and the medical, especially lung related problems faced by the population due to overuse of fossil fuel powered motor vehicles. The growth in the fossil fuel powered cars and other classes of motor vehicles have been rampant and meteroic, eversince the opening of the market floodgates with the then government's liberalisation and globalisation policies of 1991. The draft National automobile policy of March 2018 by the Ministry of Heavy Industry for the first time speaks about alternate energy powered motor vehicles. The previous automobile policy of 2002, the immediate one before the 2018 policy, spoke more about low emission, rather than touching upon fuel efficiency or alternate energy sources to power the engines :- 2002 Automobile Policy excerpt Quote:
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And how can we ignore the two top CEO's Mr Rajiv Bajaj and Mr Venu Srinivasan of our automobile industry ,who were a few days back extremely vocal and critical in their discussions at the Niti Aayog about the speeding up of the dealine to introduce 100 % sub 150 cc "electric" two wheelers ? They had in simple words said that we export 3 million two wheelers per annum worth US $ 3 billion and that the government wants to kill the goose that is laying golden eggs. Quote:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/69920504.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medi um=text&utm_campaign=cppst Last edited by anjan_c2007 : 25th June 2019 at 18:33. | |||
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Senior - BHPian Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: BLR
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| ![]() I am all for EV’s but has anyone done a study on the impact of EV’s on the electrical grid. For example in my apartment complex there are roughly 200 houses and hypothetically assuming 50% convert to EV’s. Assuming an average power drawn is 20Kw/car then imagine the load on the transmission lines and the overall multiplier effect on the grid. Here is how UK is preparing there grid an interesting read.https://www.engerati.com/transmissio...ctric-vehicles Last edited by tj123 : 25th June 2019 at 18:59. Reason: typo |
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Distinguished - BHPian ![]() ![]() Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Bangalore
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| ![]() My opinion is different from the general sentiment of the thread. While the governments projection does look unlikely, considering the rate at which some of the disruptions have happened in India, I will not be surprised if 4 years down the line, we look back and say-We all got it totally wrong. |
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BHPian ![]() Join Date: May 2019 Location: Gurgaon
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