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Old 12th July 2019, 10:52   #31
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Just thinking: if the government were to reduce duty/taxes on vehicle/CBU imports, Mr. Bajaj will have a problem even then. They are lackadaisical because they have gotten used to be in a protected environment that everything thing is a threat.

On a lighter note, an amusing incident: When I first typed "Bajaj", the autocorrect feature on my phone changed the word to "Hahaha"!!!
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Old 12th July 2019, 11:16   #32
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

No industry likes random shifts in Government position. Bajaj (and other manufacturers) may have invested in setting up a new plant, hired hundreds or thousands of people. Multiple this by 5-10 for OEMs which depend on this industry. So Bajaj is absolutely right in complaining the random Govt policies - we have also seen that enough in successive budgets, haven't we.

The correct way is to incentivize and disincentivize and make that progressive. The market will shift by itself. They should have provided more tax breaks to EVs and setup a roadmap for increasing taxation on ICE vehicles. That way you try to bring inflection point of EVs adoption much closer to today.

Setting up unrealistic goals is fine but putting that into things like banning ICE vehicles or making it a law is ridiculous thinking at a new level.

~m

Last edited by serious_maniac : 12th July 2019 at 11:17. Reason: typos
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Old 12th July 2019, 11:33   #33
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I am with Mr. Bajaj on this. This is a knee-jerk reaction from the government and the effects will be borne by millions of people. I see it as another demonetisation which will see a lot of goal post shifting, blame games, false statistics and in the end we will have nothing to be proud of.

Government should focus on making EVs accessible by working with industry players so that the common man sees benefit in shifting to EVs. No point in simply banning something that too on such a short notice. Some of us might think that 6 years is a good enough time frame but we should keep in mind that product development life cycle itself is 3-4 years in the automotive industry. Add to this the transition to BS-VI will itself consume a couple of years before things settle down.

To the start-ups and tech companies backing this move: I hope you are aware of the sheer size of this industry in India. I guess we sold over 2-crore two-wheeler's last year with majority (more than 90%?) of them being sub 150 cc. Do you think you have the capabilities to manufacture so many EVs each year (and not assemble parts imported from China)? I suggest you get your own acts right first before jumping guns. We don't want to see our market flooded with cheap Chinese motors, batteries and controllers.
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Old 12th July 2019, 11:37   #34
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I think Mr.Bajaj is right in a way.

However good electric vehicles maybe, it really needs the infrastructure to handle these insane loads overnight.

Think about it. The whole country doesn't have uninterrupted power supply yet. There is still shortage in supply. If all the electric vehicles are connected to the grid, the grids will be overloaded. And in case there's a power cut, all these people who have EVs will need to travel to their workplace by foot. This is not a joke. The areas not connected by electric lines wont be able to use any EVs considering that IC vehicles sales are banned

Also there isn't any clear cut plan to address such issues. The Govt hasn't laid down any guidelines either. There is so much of groundwork that needs to be done in order to meet such optimistic targets. If the Govt has a solid plan to create the system and eventually move to renewable sources of energy, these targets can be met with reasonable success. But I don't see that.


EVs are certainly the future though. It's just that we need to catch up big time.
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Old 12th July 2019, 11:48   #35
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmartCat View Post
So Rajiv Bajaj is not against EVs. He is only criticizing government's plan to go 100% EV after X years for two wheelers and three wheelers.
Rajiv Bajaj just spoke my mind. One should first lay the road then they can enforce the rule on road. But here no proper Infrastructure or road map to migrate to 100% EV. But the Government's idea to simply push for their goal of 100% EV within few years is simply unacceptable.
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Old 12th July 2019, 12:03   #36
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Do we have enough infrastructure to charge batteries while on the road ? - Who cares

Does the currently available battery tech allow a 0 - 100 charging within a reasonable time ? - Who cares

Do we have enough supply of raw materials to produce enough number of batteries for all new vehicles expected to be produced in a year ? - Who cares

Does the currently available technology allow an EV to be retailed at the same price as a ICE car of similar spec ? - Who cares

Can the currently available battery tech give us a car with a minimum range of 500 km on a single charge without any if's and but's? - Who cares.

Do we have to set a date beyond which production of ICE vehicles will not be allowed ? Hell yeah ! I need to show I'm doing something !

Defining policy is not something that can be expected to be handled by a bunch of pea brained morons. A minimum level of IQ is required for this to happen in a realistic manner. The repercussions for such shortsightedness, unfortunately, have to be borne by the larger public, time and again.

70 years after independence, we don't have 24/7 uninterrupted power supply even in the metro cities. You want the public to be dependent on this supply to run our cars. Wait a minute. Did I hear that right? Common sense buddy ! Common sense. They don't teach you this in schools.

Last edited by longhorn : 12th July 2019 at 12:29.
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Old 12th July 2019, 12:26   #37
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I agree that ban of petrol 2/3 wheeler sales in just 5-6 years is not a good decision. At the same time, govt cannot leave the EV transition to traditional automakers. Traditional automakers will always try to protect their profits instead of investing in new technologies like EVs.

India's EV policy is one of the best in the world IMO. It includes direct subsidies to 2/3 wheelers, buses, fleet cars. Subsidies also applies to only locally manufactured vehicles with increasing localization requirement each year. At the same time, all EVs (including private cars) will get huge tax advantage in terms of low GST (5% compared to 29%-50% for ICEs) and tax exemption on loan interest. Govt should continue to subsidize the EV buses, 2/3 wheelers beyond 2022 (FAME II time frame is 2019-22), higher taxes on imports, provide incentives to local battery, EV component manufacturers. They should work with all state govts to remove road tax on EVs to make them affordable.
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Old 12th July 2019, 12:35   #38
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I read somewhere how bitterly horse drawn carriage tradesman guild opposed early automobiles in America citing job losses for people in the trade. Their petition can be searched on internet. Bajaj Auto is playing the same role.

Till 1987 -88 Bajaj scooters did not have side turn indicators. With advent of Indo-Japanese 100 CC bikes turn indicators became popular and government mandated side indicators on two wheeler.
No surprises to guess Bajaj auto bitterly opposed it.

Then came reforms of 1991 and Mr. Rahul Bajaj was at the forefront of Bombay club to oppose the economic changes brought in by Narasimha Rao government. All the industrialists who formed this Bombay Club were those who immensely benefited from license raj and closed economy.

So Mr. Rajiv Bajaj is just continuing the family tradition.

Even for ICE for every step-change be it BS2 , BS3 or BS4 same kind of arguments were given by incumbents however missing infrastructure and capability miraculously appeared.

So I am quite confident today's petrol pump owners on highways will not mind putting a transformer and 10-15 fast charge points and electric meters.

These fuel pump owners already innovated in the past by creating food courts and restaurants when number of people travelling in personal cars increased after four lane highways came in to being.

Anyway cost of this infra and real estate required is minuscule compared to FRP underground tanks and pumps for diesel and petrol. Even in the areas where there is no power line putting up a DG to power charging stations will be cheaper then the infra cost of petrol pump.

Last edited by SmartCat : 12th July 2019 at 13:06. Reason: Rahul Rajiv mixup fixed
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Old 12th July 2019, 13:02   #39
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I think it is very brave of Mr. Bajaj to be vocal against what essentially is only a newspaper headline material talk.
100% EV by 2030, now that's a joke whether you like it or not.

The point here is not about whether EVs are good or bad, but is that even going to happen by then?
Is this target realistic?
What steps have been taken in order to reach there?
Importing from China?
Do we have necessary infrastructure to support this?
Do we have factories manufacturing these Batteries and other necessary equipment?
What is the R&D strategy in this aspect? How efficient are EVs in terms of range and other important travel specific requirements, before we can proudly make such statements?

As on date, I would love to buy an E-bicycle, to go to work, but a decent one costs around 50-60k INR. My govt wants me to spend through my nose to travel in a more environment conducive vehicle.
I won't even get to the cost of purchase of an EV car. Damn its pricey.

Where are the subsidies? The intent might be great but without actions, it translates to hogwash. To blame someone else later.

Most organizations in Europe have Charging points placed in all of their parking lots, plus there are charging points on the highways, motels, fuel pumps and what not.
And these exist since a long time and yet they are not in a position to be 100% ICE free.

Lets introspect,
- What do we have, do we have charging points? No
- Can we travel fuss free for lets say 600kms in our EV? Maybe, but hey you have to be very rich for that.
- We are far from electrifying our Railway system, most circuits are running Diesel units.
- Solar energy, wind energy are renewable sources of energy, but if one wants to get those installed - get ready to shell big bucks - why?
- What will happen to all the public transport buses? We are still running 20-30 year old buses in our country (State transport) and yet...

Then the penultimate question - what happens to existing inventory, not just the one lying with the manufacturers but also with people like you and me.

In the absence of a clear road map, without initiating steps and actually putting in place infrastructure which will work towards the goal - it will be a good dream.

Even in ICE technology, we are merely following what the world is doing, alternative fuel is certainly an answer - but where is the support there? Or any progress as well. CNG and LPG started with a bang and are selling, but there are hardly any fuel pumps as compared to the more popular fuels.
We had an LPG vehicle, at no point was I ever confident that I would be able to complete my outstation trip solely on LPG, and I always had to fill Petrol + LPG - lack of infrastructure.

I am all in for it, one step at a time, first introduce the concept of affordable EV, be it a basic bicycle.
This is what will make people buy! And that will bring change!
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Old 12th July 2019, 13:03   #40
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I rate this in line with demonetization (To promote digital transaction)

All you need to do is make electrical vehicles an attractive option and then, IC engines will have a natural death.

Once you force the IC engines away by law, lot of families will loose job and our whole industry will go down.

And how electricity is produced? Only pouting area is changed geographically-polution still remains more or less same.
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Old 12th July 2019, 13:22   #41
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by amitk26 View Post
So I am quite confident today's petrol pump owners on highways will not mind putting a transformer and 10-15 fast charge points and electric meters.
This sounds right but most of us are debating on our capabilities to produce such large number of EVs. It makes no sense to import motors, batteries, and controllers at such a large scale (mostly from China). The industry will need time to come up to speed. We should accept that 9 women cannot deliver a baby in one month.

Quote:
Originally Posted by amitk26 View Post
Even in the areas where there is no power line putting up a DG to power charging stations will be cheaper then the infra cost of petrol pump.
I hope you don't mean this literally. It makes little sense to burn fuel (mostly diesel) at 40% efficiency to charge batteries that will in-turn drive vehicles.

Last edited by tarik.arora : 12th July 2019 at 13:23.
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Old 12th July 2019, 13:40   #42
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by tarik.arora View Post
We should accept that 9 women cannot deliver a baby in one month.


Am a huge 'believer' in EVs as the future. And it's pretty obvious from the past that that our Indian auto manufacturers, for all their talk about 'innovation' and 'market forces' (and however 'visionary' their head honchos try to come across on their twitter accounts ), love a protected market and will NEVER do anything that is good for the future- be it for increased passenger safety, for cleaner air, or just offering basic world-class features on vehicles- unless they are forced to by law.

But even I don't see this complete shift happening soon. In fact I wonder why one has to be an EV 'believer' at all. If there is an EV with comparable range (even if it is just for the city commutes), and at a comparable price, (and not a vehicle that looks 'wonky' futuristic just because it is electric!), then automatically it will become a viable rational choice over a fossil fuel-powered vehicle.

The government can choose to do this through subsidies, making it easier for manufacturers to set up end-to-end EV infra, focus on making public transport fleets and taxi fleets switch to EVs first, and in so many other ways, even an increased tax on higher fuel-guzzling and more polluting vehicles makes sense. A blanket 'ban' mentality does not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by princenoble View Post
And how electricity is produced? Only pouting area is changed geographically-polution still remains more or less same.
Even that is acceptable. At least the 'concentration' of pollution in cities will go down. Plus it will be easier to regulate or work on reducing the resultant pollution in some way at the source electricity-generating plants rather than on millions of individual vehicles (where you are also limited by the size of pollution reducing tech you can use because of vehicle size, just one of the considerations), right?

Last edited by am1m : 12th July 2019 at 13:59.
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Old 12th July 2019, 13:43   #43
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I'm all for EVs. However, I think the government should focus, and perhaps set targets for EV adoption for intra-city buses. These have dedicated parking locations, and range should not be a major issue. EVs should be perfect for the RTCs which otherwise neglect maintenance. Since EVs do not need oil change type maintenance, it might fare better than ICE buses in their hands. Later, when the EV manufacturers benefit from this policy, they can build cheaper electric cars with comparable range. By that time, technology would also have evolved a lot. The path taken by the government might be wrong, but I feel that the intention is correct.
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Old 12th July 2019, 14:14   #44
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by tarik.arora View Post
The industry will need time to come up to speed. We should accept that 9 women cannot deliver a baby in one month.
In great indian families many times elders nudge couples to produce baby ;-) if process is not initiated even after 24 months it can't be done.

I think policy framework and government has same role. No one stopped any industrial house from investing in E-vehicles and battery manufacturing in last decade. When a small company in Bangalore took a baby step in 2005 most people just made fun and ignored.


Quote:
Originally Posted by tarik.arora View Post

I hope you don't mean this literally. It makes little sense to burn fuel (mostly diesel) at 40% efficiency to charge batteries that will in-turn drive vehicles.
I was just killing costly infrastructure argument.

A super critical thermal powerplant fired by coal is many times more efficient and less polluting compared to automobile IC engine or a big DG used in tech parks and industry.
There is no dearth of power production capacity in India now a days. In fact national grid has a surplus for past couple of years.

The problem was at distribution end with state electricity boards that they were cash strapped due to freebie culture and so called T&D loss (theft). Instead of buying electricity in spot market from national grid they prefer load shedding.

Imagine a bulk buyer such as a car parking lot in a mall with charging points is directly allowed to do power purchase from power grid they can always buy as they have paying customer.

Same arrangements could have been done for tech parks as well but state governments in their infinite wisdom force them to purchase only from DISCOMs at higher commercial rate and run DG during load shedding. Last year KEB even mandated tech parks in Bangalore to run DG for atleast 2 hours a day.
This was source of point about DG.
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Old 12th July 2019, 14:18   #45
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Petrol pumps can put solar, they can make as much as around 30kw to 50kw of power/hour provided they use up the entire area for solar and use the most efficient solar panels. The petrol pumps in highway are even larger and can produce even more power.

Instead of underground fuel tank, they can have battery banks that store the solar energy. Some of the battery chemistry out there is so good and safe for energy storage. It can last 10 years after which it capacity will still be 80% good.

With a stationary battery pack you can basically super charge a EV from green power both day and night.

In Australia, Tesla Power Pack is basically supplying power to Australian grid during power blackout and high demand.

Your own EV car when not in use could supply power to your house for several days. In future the batteries in your car will also be able to supply DC power to your home inverter, some may even have onboard inverter capable of supplying atleast 5kw to 10kw per hour.

Charging EV with green power is the future.

Last edited by aim120 : 12th July 2019 at 14:19.
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