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Old 12th July 2019, 14:24   #46
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I think the incumbent auto industry should embrace change. They should re-skill their workforce rather than moaning about job losses. EVs will bring along its own set of unique challenges and corresponding skills to solve those.

I think they have huge amounts of money invested which is bring out the reactions we are getting from him.

The problem with the whole scenario is if the GOI is not strict about the timelines no auto manufacturer will do anything till a few months before the deadline and then will go crying to the SC saying they do not have enough time to get the required infra in place. Everyone knows how our courts function.
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Old 12th July 2019, 14:49   #47
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by landcruiser123 View Post
EVs pollute too. Just because you don't see smoke and a tailpipe, do you think it is clean?

India has a lot of electricity produced by coal. We're talking about mining a lot more lithium. Importing batteries and motors.
As of today, EVs in India will pollute more than an IC engine car. But this will improve soon.
There are a lot of misconceptions about EVs and their emissions. There is a great video which explores in detail comparison emission between Oil powered and EVs:



Some of the key points:
  • Lithium forms only 5-7% of Lithium-ion batteries. Major components are cobalt and nickel which are not only recyclable but also recycling is profitable.
  • Oil is dug from beneath more ecologically sensitive areas. Lithium is mined in deserted places like the Atacama desert in Chile where very less life is supported.
  • Emissions from EVs does depend on the mode of production of electricity. Still, if we take the most conservative for electricity produced non-renewable sources, EVs still perform better. A 30kW battery EV will break-even oil-powered cars in less than 2 years. A 100kW battery EV will break even in about 5-6 years. But, this is a very conservative estimate, and actual will probably be quite less because we produce a mix of coal-powered and renewable energy.
  • EVs typically have much more life because they have very less moving parts and require very less maintenance. Many manufacturers are providing 8 years, 1,00,000 miles warranty for batteries in the US. So, you can see the life of batteries in itself.
  • When comparing EVs, people often cite the mining of Li and emissions of producing batteries, but no one talks about emissions that go in refining oil. Plus, big ships transporting crude oil and danger they pose to oceans in case of leakage.
  • More importantly, it is much easier to switch electricity production from coal to renewable sources, than it is to switch vehicles sold. Centralization!
  • Electric motors are much more efficient than petrol/diesel engines. A big part of these engines is lost in heat, while in motors almost all energy is directly converted to mechanical energy.
  • Switching to EVs will make our city airs cleaner and prevent pre-mature deaths caused by air pollution and the extra burden it puts on government for insurance and treatment.

It is not just EVs. The Indian government is also pushing towards the production of electricity from renewable sources. Did you know that India is the producer of the cheapest solar energy in the world? If 5 years ago, they promised they will achieve this, no one would have agreed because it was a long way to go I think.

To reach somewhere, one has to take a step forward first. And, the government is doing that. If the government does not push, these multibillion-dollar corporations and oil cartels will keep doing their business and refuse to invest and innovate in technologies.

Does anyone remember how much innovation happened during WW2? How in 10 years the USA was able to land humans on the moon? Because there was pressure, the government intent and policies.

I strongly believe we will be able to achieve the target by 2030. This is a tipping point in the motor vehicle industry. There will be a lot of companies that will fail and a lot new that will emerge as leaders. Its high time we move forward, instead of being pessimistic about the estimate and criticising government policies.
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Old 12th July 2019, 14:50   #48
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Here is an interesting article on recycling EV Batteries after they can no longer be used in automobiles.


2030 may be a stiff target, but we must remember that unless pushed our automobile industry maintains status quo. Besides, we have start somewhere don't we? Mr. Bajaj may find resonance with what the founder of Honda said about the customer shaping the marked and not the manufacturers, but then there was a certain Mr. Jobs who changed among other things the way we consumed media/music through relentless innovation. The customers were satisfied with the Sony Walkman till the iPod came along.

The Government has a major part to play in the move away from ICEs, but don't we all say that the government has no business being in business? They'll incentivise setting up infrastructure, buying EVs, put the requisite policies in place. The rest has to come from the industry, if not we have the world's factory on our northern border!
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Old 12th July 2019, 14:52   #49
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Bring an auto industry veteran & having a deep corporate experience of several decades, I think we can grant that much to Bajaj that he knows what he's talking about.
It needn't be emphasised that govt policies tend to be populist in nature, not necessarily logical. It took the govt 72 years post independence to achieve 100% electrification of India (assuming its claims are true), same is certainly not going to be achieved by the auto industry for R & D & production of its vehicles within 10 years. Somewhere down the line, sarkar is bound to realise this, which is then they will wake up & rationalise the target.
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Old 12th July 2019, 15:36   #50
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I would commend if the government comes up with a goal of 100% power generation with renewable sources. But they won't. Because they are incapable of doing anything useful themselves. It is far easier for them to force the private entities to do all the running and in the process drive everyone crazy. If they really had the balls and interest, they will simply make the public transportation better in every city and make it attractive for everyone to use them in the cities/town. What a bunch of clowns we have running this country. A city like Bangalore is a mess where hundreds of thousands of cars are burning fuel crawling at traffic jams. An under-construction flyover in Koramangala that is making everyone's life miserable has hardly anyone working on it. My guess is, they are making do with 10 people who work on one pillar at a time. EVs are nice, but we are not there yet to make them all EV. This looks like another Quixotic which will just make it more chaotic.


In short, I agree with Mr. Bajaj.
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Old 12th July 2019, 15:55   #51
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

The Government is acting to safeguard the environment the move which is the need of the hour and should be priority of every country. It is burning of fossil fuel that is hurting us the most. We need to stop it asap and it is in this regard that I am in favour of Government's move. I also see that Rajiv Bajaj has some valid points but they are largely in the interest of protecting his business interest. We all know that cloud is such a shift in the technology that it is killing the conventional IT business as we know it. IT companies can not complain but have to change with time and adopt to cloud and related technology. I am afraid Automotive industry would have to fall in line and do likewise because EVs is need of the hours. Once they focus on the opportunity, they will invest and find a way to sustain and carry on their businesses with new lines of revenue.

There are challenges to lay out the infrastructure and improve the battery lives and make the technology cheaper for better adoption which can be overcome only with investment of great business minds who can monetise this opportunity.
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Old 12th July 2019, 15:57   #52
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Quote:
Originally Posted by KL01toKA03 View Post
I'm all for EVs. However, I think the government should focus, and perhaps set targets for EV adoption for intra-city buses. These have dedicated parking locations, and range should not be a major issue. EVs should be perfect for the RTCs which otherwise neglect maintenance. Since EVs do not need oil change type maintenance, it might fare better than ICE buses in their hands. Later, when the EV manufacturers benefit from this policy, they can build cheaper electric cars with comparable range. By that time, technology would also have evolved a lot. The path taken by the government might be wrong, but I feel that the intention is correct.
Adding to my previous post.

A big advantage India has in the path to EV adoption is the availability of cheap labour. India now produces the cheapest solar power in the world. I hope the government builds on that advantage and promotes renewable sources in a big way.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/...t-solar-power/
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Old 12th July 2019, 16:06   #53
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Two kinds of people in this world...

Doers

and

Talkers


If Industry honchos were let to decide on what is good for the people and the environment then there would still be no bharat ncap safety assesment program and people would still be driving BS2 or BS3 vehicles.

So when govt takes proactive step guys like Bajaj and Bhargava go on blabber mode. Who stopped Bajaj from making their own Ather?

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/road-...tatements.html (Safety last? Maruti Chairman Mr. R.C. Bhargava's ridiculous statements)

Nuggets of wisdom from that post

Bhargava speak:
  • There’s no linkage in India between road fatalities and unsafe cars
  • Unlike in EU countries where 50% road fatalities are inside cars, in India it is only 16%
  • There could be a commercial angle in pushing such safety technologies
  • Such measures can improve road safety by only 3-4%
  • Features like airbags are offered in higher-end cars

Last edited by Sankar : 12th July 2019 at 16:14.
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Old 12th July 2019, 17:00   #54
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sankar View Post
Two kinds of people in this world...
Doers and Talkers
Precisely my point. Rajiv Bajaj can talk and crib all he wants. Its just that he needs to adapt to this new challenge he is faced with. If he doesn't he might just see the new boys leaving him behind before he realises.
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Old 12th July 2019, 17:05   #55
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

i think his arguments are absolutely logical. He is not resisting change. The transition has to be natural for minimal casualties. once the new technology takes hold, the old technology will fade away. Why impose a premature ban when the industry in India is nowhere near ready to meet the demand. Dumping chinese imports will not benefit our economy. It'll only make thousands of people jobless. Incentives to support start-ups and existing OEMs to augment their infrastructure is the way to go. Flashbang politics will only result in pain for the common man.
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Old 12th July 2019, 18:10   #56
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Firstly, it's a great pleasure to see Mr Rajiv Bajaj take on the policy makers for their short sightedness head-on. His father Mr Rahul Bajaj, now an octagenarian during his prime years (until a decade ago) would also hit out at policy makers, whenever he would catch them on the wrong foot. The views of Mr Rajiv are very pragmatic and are worth being considered by the policy makers for a review of their hushed-up, target-oriented and timeline-bound electric vehicle policy. Its always like since ages that with the bureaucracy and the politicos, who want to show that some unrealistic, wierd and unheard targets have been met. The world scoffs at such hare-brained and short-sighted policies, but the bureaucrats and politicos think it's right.

Mr Venu Srinivasan of TVS has also been very critical of the steps being taken, that will kill a thriving two wheeler industry with so much of R &D done over the years and it's exports touching about US $ 3 billion per annum.

There is no white paper till date on electric vehicles, nor are the methodologies to be adapted in a phased manner to usher in the electric mobility era existent. Indians who trade ("traders" as Mr Rajiv prefers to call them ) with the Chinese to import the now 1% electric two wheelers (of the sum total sales) and the Chinese themselves are expected to be the greatest beneficiaries.

Last edited by anjan_c2007 : 12th July 2019 at 18:14.
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Old 12th July 2019, 18:34   #57
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

If we think logically, change will anyway happen the way people embrace it and not how the Govt mandates it. Without EVs worth their salt, without charging infrastructure in place, without proper electricity supply even the Govt cannot mandate the auto industry to pull the plug on ICEs. It's simple demand & supply. For eg. If I don't get a vehicle which suits my requirements, I wouldn't buy one and will happily either keep my old car or ride Ola/Uber. Govt. cannot risk such slowdown of demand/consumption in the sector.

The biggest challenge I see in getting EVs into the mainstream is the group of the OEM suppliers, esp related to components particular to ICE cars like engine components, lubricants, engine oil, etc. The car service industry will suffer because the maintenance of EVs will be far lower than ICE cars. Heck, even the Govt will lose a lot of revenue from petrol & diesel sales. A high probability that they will charge electricity more to make up the losses. So, in all, I see the EVs living-in with the ICEs happily for a long time to come until electric technology really overtakes the convenience of fossil run vehicles & the entire chain of industries adapt to the requirements of EVs. And then, ICE may die a natural death.

Having said all, I cannot imagine the consequences. There are countries, esp in middle east, whose entire economy depend on exporting oil. Then there are those (like ours ) whose big chunk of coffers depend on taxes on petrol/ diesel. GDP, employment, revenues- all getting hit big time. Will we see all this?
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Old 12th July 2019, 18:37   #58
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmartCat View Post
Touschreen + Appstore was a giant leap when compared to pre-2008 feature phones. Is an electric vehicle such a giant leap over petrol/diesel vehicle? EVs have more negatives than positives when compared to petrol/diesel vehicles. EVs will not sell unless incentives are given to both customers and manufacturers. And even after incentives/tax breaks/policies/rules and subsidies -
- None of the EV makers are profitable.
- EVs are still 2x to 5x more expensive than petrol/diesel vehicles.
It is just a matter of reaching the scale. Once numbers accrue in sales, advanced tech and investments will follow. Prices would come down surely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmartCat View Post
More importantly, it does not solve the issue of India's dependence on imports. Instead of importing oil from Middle East, we will be importing Lithium ion batteries and EV components from China.
Still, EVs make a lot more sense simply because the same Lithium ion battery can be recharged and used many times over.

Import bills of petroleum products are hefty and taking a serious dent to our economy because of foreign exchange outgo. Pollution is another major problem in cities and has serious associated costs.

Charging tech and charging stations has to become ubiquitous. I believe they will follow automatically if there is money to be made. Also, I sincerely wish that Govt tries to make more power from nonpolluting sources like solar and wind energy. It hardly makes sense to generate more electricity by burning more coal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmartCat View Post
Your phone example is exactly what Rajiv Bajaj is trying to convey. Customers themselves chose touchscreen phones over feature phones, without any Govt interference in the form of rules or policies.
Personally, I feel Govt is making a move in the right direction. A little nudge and a little push is needed here and there to gather the initial pace and momentum. It is similar to nudging people to spend money electronically than continue using physical currency. This is a prior area where Government's push had gather significant traction now.

Last edited by B103 : 12th July 2019 at 18:41.
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Old 12th July 2019, 19:13   #59
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Quote:
People are bringing EVs to India from China — 99% of EV sellers are traders, they are not engineers. They are just traders who are giving jobs to China by bringing the vehicles from there and dumping them in this market.


Dear Bajaj Group, How about giving us some Made in India home appliances? Keep the jobs here, please?

Made in China Bajaj Microwave
Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan-microwavebajaj.jpg

Made in China Bajaj Kettle
Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan-majesty.jpg

Made in China Bajaj Oven toaster grill
Name:  majesty_2.png
Views: 847
Size:  143.0 KB

Why are these being made in china? India cannot make these relatively simple appliances? Bajaj knows trading is more lucrative than manufacturing.

All these are "Marketed by Bajaj Electricals". They don't even keep the name of the manufacturer on the label.

Factories in China making above mentioned items for Bajaj would be making the same for other manufacturers to sell elsewhere or even here with minor changes to non critical stuff like bezel, fascia etc. So much for calling others traders...

PS: I know Bajaj Auto is not Bajaj Electricals. But they are under the same Bajaj Group. So let the change happen at home first before calling others traders.

PPS: Bajaj auto should not forget that they themselves started out in this industry by selling (trading) imported scooters, before starting local assembly of Vespa from CKD kits.

OT: My dad had a Vespa assembled and sold by Bajaj when i was a kid. He bought it used from some place with a Madras registration and later transferred to Kerala.

Last edited by Sankar : 12th July 2019 at 19:27.
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Old 12th July 2019, 19:27   #60
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

IMO, the government needs to prioritise the commercial vehicle sector when it comes to pushing EVs.

With the commercial vehicle sector, all that matters is the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership). The range matters when speaking about medium and long haul trucks and outstation plying buses.

But for intra-city buses, Light Commercial Vehicles which have a running of 100-200kms per day, EVs make a lot of economic sense!

I read that commercial vehicles makes up for more than 25% of the total air pollution caused by the transportation sector. Why isn’t the government pushing on this front as aggressively as they are on personal vehicles?

Transport operators do not worry about range anxiety, driving experience, feel, etc. Cost of transport and maintenance and TCO is top priority. Given the higher running of commercial vehicles, the savings would easily offset the higher initial investment.

The technology to make medium to long haul trucks having 800-1000km range may not be perfected yet. But the tech to make LCVs with a range of 200-300km do exist. If the government incentivises these LCV EVs in phase 1 and then develop the necessary charging infrastructure for larger CVs and incentivise them in phase 2, it would be a success for sure. Most CV operators don’t mind stopping on the highway for a few hours to charge at a charging station if the cost of transportation is cheaper than fossil fuels. Personal vehicle owners don’t find this convenient.

My organisation owns a small fleet of Eicher 11.10 trucks. If there is an equivalent replacement with a range of 600kms (assuming no charging infrastructure. ~300km range with charging infrastructure), my rough calculation assuming a running of 40k kms per year, the cost of diesel alone at the end of 5 years would make going for the EV version more viable though it is priced 2-2.5x of the diesel model.

All I am saying is that commercial vehicle operators are more easily willing to shift to EVs if the TCO makes sense and will migrate faster than personal vehicle owners. Also the higher km running offsets the initial investment cost by a sufficient margin to enable this voluntarily.

Last edited by sharc_biker : 12th July 2019 at 19:46.
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