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Old 13th July 2019, 16:07   #76
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

If the govt steps in and ban all ICE cars at a notice to make us all buy EVs, Im just wondering where all the power to charge up our cars are going to come from? I live in kochi, where we have frequent power cuts as it is, right now. I mean here if there is even a teeny tiny black cloud in the sky and a breeze to give it company its a given that the power will be cut. My generator bill for the house for a year tallies upto Rs. 10,000 a year in addition to the KSEB(state owned power company) bill. Thats 10,000 rupees a year I shouldn't have spend but I need to anyway since our wonderful state owned power company doesn't have the juice to give us power 24/7.
If dozens of tens of millions of people at a time are going to now buy electric vehicles and plug them into the grid, probably during night time all at once, where is the power going to come from? And what will be our electricity bills? All significant points to ponder.
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Old 13th July 2019, 16:14   #77
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by sri_tesla View Post
This is true. PLF is lower for solar plants but they are still cheaper after considering low PLFs. For example, per unit cost electricity from many state owned coal plants is between Rs 5 to Rs 8. But for solar and wind plants the average unit cost based on the solar and wind plant auctions for the last 2-3 years is less than Rs 3.
Rs. 5 to 8 are "merchant power" rates during peak demand. These are market rates decided on power exchanges like https://www.iexindia.com, and it depends on supply and demand at any point of time. IEX India website says current merchant rates are Rs. 3.7 per unit.

Long term power purchase agreements between distribution companies and coal power plants are signed at around Rs. 3 per unit. But if solar and wind power manage to match those rates and still be profitable, then it is a very good sign for renewables.

Last edited by SmartCat : 13th July 2019 at 16:15.
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Old 13th July 2019, 16:30   #78
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by SmartCat View Post
Rs. 5 to 8 are "merchant power" rates during peak demand. These are market rates decided on power exchanges like https://www.iexindia.com, and it depends on supply and demand at any point of time. IEX India website says current merchant rates are Rs. 3.7 per unit.
As you said, exchange rate depends on demand and supply. These should not be compared with purchase agreements between power plants and distribution companies.


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Long term power purchase agreements between distribution companies and coal power plants are signed at around Rs. 3 per unit. But if solar and wind power manage to match those rates and still be profitable, then it is a very good sign for renewables.
This is true, but both distribution companies and coal plants (majority of them) are both owned by state govts. While purchase agreements are done at lower prices, the actual cost of electricity per unit are much higher due to higher cost of coal plant construction, interest costs, maintenance and operation costs, etc... Each year debt on state govts increasing from power sector. This doesn't reflect in the exchange prices.

Coming to solar/wind plants, they are being setup by private companies (mostly forex money) and power purchasing agreements are being done based on unit costs of Rs 2.5 to Rs 3. No burden on govt for plant construction, maintenance, operation, etc...
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Old 13th July 2019, 17:19   #79
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Here are some numbers in perspective normal gasoline car engines have thermal efficiency of 25%

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...-of-38-percent

With hybrid Toyota was able to push thermal efficiency to 38%. That is of the cleanest ICE engine touted as green.

However if you give search in google and go to Wikipedia the number comes is 25% to 50% . This is the power of search engine optimization and money spent in propoganda by industry.

Compared to this thermal efficiency of so called dirty Indian coal fired super critical thermal power plant is 42 to 45%. Taking the lower number a thermal power plant is 10.5% cleaner then Toyota.

Thermal power plants in India these days range from 200 to 800 MW so you can just calculate what this 10.5% amounts to. Assuming 51% of Indian electrical power comes from thermal then also EV will be less polluting.
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Old 13th July 2019, 17:42   #80
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by amitk26 View Post
Here are some numbers in perspective normal gasoline car engines have thermal efficiency of 25%

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...-of-38-percent

With hybrid Toyota was able to push thermal efficiency to 38%. That is of the cleanest ICE engine touted as green.

However if you give search in google and go to Wikipedia the number comes is 25% to 50% . This is the power of search engine optimization and money spent in propoganda by industry.

Compared to this thermal efficiency of so called dirty Indian coal fired super critical thermal power plant is 42 to 45%. Taking the lower number a thermal power plant is 10.5% cleaner then Toyota.

Thermal power plants in India these days range from 200 to 800 MW so you can just calculate what this 10.5% amounts to. Assuming 51% of Indian electrical power comes from thermal then also EV will be less polluting.

This is the point most fail to understand. EVs pollute less from the day one, no matter how you charge them. With nuclear, hydro, wind and solar in the energy mix, that fraction decreases further.

Along with better energy efficiency, coal plant's exhaust also is much easier to manage and clean than a mobile ICE.
Frequently varying load also causes massive decrease in efficiency. A thermal plant doens't have to stop and start because of strategically placed Bangalore potholes.
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Old 13th July 2019, 18:56   #81
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Since the per unit price of solar power is now cheaper then coal, it will make economic sense to only add Solar capacity, there is also the option of nuclear plants.

As far as recycling lithium battery, they can be put to use elsewhere.

For eg Let's take the Kona it has a 39kw battery pack, after its 8 year warranty it's capacity may drop to be like 70%. While this drop in capacity may no longer meet the requirement for some to get from point A to B without charging. The battery can then be used for storing solar power. The Kona battery would be now 27kw after say 8 years, that's equal to energy given by 11 x 12v 200ah lead acid batteries at .1C or equal to 22 batteries at 1C.

These batteries occupy 50% less space, doesn't require ventilation and more importantly the lithium battery can discharge at 1C and still give its full rated capacity vs lead acid which can drop to as low as 40% when discharged at 1C.

So every house no longer need to spend 15k to 80k*, every 3 to 6 year on Lead acid battery for there home inverters. You will however need inverters which can handle such voltages and BMS communication protocols.


*(Price of top brand 150ah 1 to 4 nos tubular battery)
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Old 14th July 2019, 05:17   #82
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by VVN View Post
Why is there no traction on Hydrogen powered cars? The cars can be refuelled like any conventional car and the emission is as clean as EVs. Can someone shed some light on this please?
There are several reasons.
1. Cost of producing hydrogen from stable substances like water is too much.
2. From fossil fuels costs are coming down but transportation of hydrogen is still expensive. Even pipeline that can transport hydrogen is much more expensive.
3. Producing hydrogen itself causes all the pollution.

The option that makes sense is solar/wind coupled with giant batteries
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019...sil-fuels-grid
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Old 14th July 2019, 08:30   #83
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I think we are reacting to something that can be comfortably ignored. There is no way diesel is going to be replaced in moving the goods till the date the last drop of diesel is consumed.

They will tax petrol more and more citing these 'visions'. They will make people revert to buying diesel powered vehicles more in the next decade because of petrol being taxed higher. They will tax diesel vehicles higher and will make us revert to healthier cycling.

The battery/charging point bottleneck in EV saga is too complex to get sorted out in the next 50 years at the rate we had been used to doing things. There will be some quick fixes in a few tiny spots that will be projected as 'achievements' during elections. These will take more money and indirectly pollute as much if not higher than in IC mode

At max, there will be some huge subsidy scheme coming up benefitting a defunct company which will fizzle out on it own because of it's own incompetency.

All aside, I am dreaming of doing an engine swap in my Figo in 10-15 years instead of buying a new car. I have stopped reading about new cars and started reading more on the project to upgrade my car. I hope to see that engine swap market maturing in the next decade due to these knee jerk reactions.

Last edited by moralfibre : 15th July 2019 at 08:41. Reason: Typos
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Old 14th July 2019, 08:56   #84
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I think a lot of people are missing the big picture here. EV's are green yes, but there are many factors which revolve around EV that will determine is EV's are actually green ot not.

Yes EV's do not release harmful gases like ICE vehicles. However, my first question is - How is the electricity generated? Hydro? Nuclear? Solar? Coal? Lets say most of the electricity is generated by burning coal, then its counter intuitive. We need more electricity to charge EV's and if this electricity is not generated in green way then what is the point of encouraging EV's?

My next question is - How are these EV's made? Just like conventional vehicles, EV's are made from metals and plastics. Are these EV's made from recycled materials or not? If yes, then fine else again its counter intuitive.

My next question is - How are the old vehicles handled or recycled? Once EV's catch up most of the people will let go of their old vehicles. What is the policy to recycle them? Again if its not recycled properly then we end up creating more harm to environment.

How are the batteries on EV's recycled? What is the policy on this?

What if government is unable to keep up with the demand of electricity? I knew a lot of metropolitan cities even till today have power cuts. How can I charge my EV if I have no electricity at home? Few villages have electricity only few hours a day. I know that this doesn't make sense as yet, but I think Indians are in no hurry for EV revolution. A lot of people will suffer from range anxiety if this issue is not addressed on time.

I think government should first address these issues before going full EV on Indians. It will be good platform to start with and will have complete ground work completed before launching EV policy.

I personally wanted to buy an EV, but Kona pricing has disappointed me. E2O plus gives me range anxiety and is not a reliable car.
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Old 14th July 2019, 09:54   #85
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by roy_libran View Post
I find Mr. Bajaj's position quite QUTE!

No wonder he's trying to defend an archaic business model based on selling outdated technology.
Technology becomes 'outdated' when it makes sense for a vast majority of users to voluntarily switch away from it. That is clearly not the case with EVs using the present day battery tech, which have issues related to range and charging time.

We have seen forced obsolescence in the smartphone arena, but cars are too critical in our country (in the absence of comfortable public transport) to call ICE 'outdated' prematurely.

I do hope that ICE becomes obsolete sooner rather than later as I see ICE drivetrains as too complicated and in-elegant.

Coming to think of it, I disagree more with your post than even with the Government's position.

Last edited by vipul_singh : 14th July 2019 at 09:59.
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Old 14th July 2019, 11:34   #86
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A gradual emission reduction is the way to go. Total EVs are a long way to go, battery scales, charging infrastructure, economics, disposal etc are fully not understood.Governmennts can show directions but should not dictate technology choices.
Even China has revised and made hybrids as way forward instead of EVS
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/El...win-for-Toyota
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Old 14th July 2019, 14:29   #87
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Wonderful thread. Enjoyed all the meaningful discussion and concerns. It is interesting to understand how opinions emerge and how it differs.

Now, whether we like it or not, EVs will be promoted by the Government with utmost urgency. As India's economy grows and more people moves up as middle class, energy needs are set to quadruple. This is bound to happen in the next decade itself. With more than 80% of the fuel being imported, country cannot ill-afford to pay inflated fuel bills of next decade. Too much Forex is drained this way. Brakes have to be applied sometime and best time is always now.

OPEC as a cartel keeps a stranglehold on fuel prices primarily to their advantage. They sell oil to Asians at a premium compared to Europeans and Americans. We import so much of oil and pay in foreign currency (except may be to Iran) but meted out with second class treatment. India was trying to form a group in 2018 to end this practice. Don't know whether it succeeded or not.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...-Asian-premium

Also, what if OPEC decides to cut supply to India in the event of an Indo-Pak escalation? US has shale oil reserves and there is technology available to extract it now but it is costlier. It is the Government's responsibility to foresee potential contingencies to energy supply and preempt it.

Inflated oil bills and threat to supply would be the 2 major governmental concerns but may not be for general citizens like us. Pollution in cities would be a major one which would matter in this category. I agree with all the posts here about abysmal state of Indian cities. Every city is a mess - be it Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai. New Indian cities if growing will go the same way.

Lot of it is because of poor urban planning. Masses with no civic sense is the next big contributing factor. In all these instances, development has been utterly chaotic and haphazard. State governments do not have the wherewithal, vision, will or technology for structurally planning urban growth before it becomes chaotic. As an example, BBMP is the planning authority for Bangalore city and it is a joke at best. They are unable to manage themselves, how will they manage a city!! Even courts are not able to do anything other than lamenting about BBMP.

Cities come under the purview of state governments and they do not want to give up autonomy. Therefore, good public transport is going to take time to materialize. With the rate at which cities are growing, public mass transport is the only and only way ahead. Basic math skills will help understand that we cannot add more cars and solve this problem. But the way, things are progressing, I am not very optimistic about the future of Indian cities.

Last edited by B103 : 14th July 2019 at 14:37.
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Old 14th July 2019, 17:21   #88
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by Sankar View Post


Dear Bajaj Group, How about giving us some Made in India home appliances? Keep the jobs here, please?

Made in China Bajaj Microwave
.

You just exposed his hypocrisy didn't you. The sooner people realize that climate change is real and not a passing fad the better. I know that ICE cars are not the biggest contributors, but whatever we as a nation can do to reduce the problem the better.

I think the Govt. is showing some intent in the right direction and that needs to be appreciated. The industry needs to come up with viable solutions now.

If left to themselves they'd certainly have had been sitting on their back sides doing nothing.
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Old 14th July 2019, 22:21   #89
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by airbender View Post

I only see the GOVT interested in going green. Neither the industry nor the public.
Thats a very tall statement.

What charging infrastructure do we have?

What is the minimum refuelling time one has to spend on a roadtrip? Or could roadtrips be done at all using EVs?

Its so easy to criticise the industry or the public, but the government [read NITI Ayog] should consider the experience of these auto majors too before imposing their thoughts and crippling the industry!
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Old 14th July 2019, 22:56   #90
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I really don't want to sound bitchy but I might end up sounding that way. My views on this matter are in post #64.

In or around 1990 the Govt passed a rule requiring two wheeler OEMs to have left-right indicators fitted on their products. Prior to that most two wheelers did not carry this feature . The other two wheeler makers fell in line with what after all was a legitimate safety request and not exactly rocket science to design. But Mr Bajaj's father Rahul Bajaj raised a hue and cry over this in the print media pouring forth on the complexity of re-design, re-tooling etc. Needless to say it came to nought and in the end they had to comply. But it reflected an attitude. Prior to that, in 1985, when Rajiv Gandhi prised open the Indian economy just a teenie-weenie bit by permitting foreign collaborations and loosening the license raj just slightly a group of industrialists formed the so called 'Bombay club'. Rahul Bajaj was a leading light of this group. Their whole agenda was (and you won't believe this today) to stall and slow down even this very limited and super slow process of liberalization - they were so comfortable with the license raj crony capitalism that competition, product improvement, newer tech, greater inflow of capital was to be protested against. I have no axe to grind against Bajaj nor have I ever bought their products or dealt with them. Just sharing these snippets from recent history which many on this forum may be too young to know. The current rant is in keeping with an earlier trend.

Last edited by V.Narayan : 14th July 2019 at 23:12.
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