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Old 2nd December 2019, 12:57   #16
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

The role of the Auto Worker will change. The ones most affected will be Assembly line workers, Servicing staff & Spare parts personnel. Electric cars will probably be modular in construction with powertrain, battery options in each model.

With fewer moving parts, design engineering will not be required. The current approach of vehicle platforms that are used for multiple vehicle types will be obsolete.

The customer-facing dealer/service centre will be replaced by touchpoints like diagnostic centres. A vast ecosystem of Auto Dealers, Service Centres, Parts Dealers, Mechanics will disappear.

My take they will be replaced by another ecosystem of tech guys who will juice up the power output, addon battery packs like power banks, fast chargers etc.

Of course, this is pure gazing in the crystal ball but new jobs with different skill sets will be created.
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Old 2nd December 2019, 13:28   #17
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

More moving parts = More workforce.

Although the EV industry would definitely create new opportunities but they will be in a different field. And these opportunities will be much lesser than we have now in the automobile. Look at the local motor markets. They all are built around the IC engines. We have local industries making spare parts that will bear the hit too. I am pretty sure that automobile companies will bind the users in warranty so that the vehicles are always serviced from the company centers. There will be a massive hit on the jobs for sure.

Change is the only constant. I have very high hopes from EV technology as it is fresh and has a plethora of potential. I still believe pushing the mass market for EVs would be a great challenge in India as compared to other countries. We still have states that suffer 8-10 hours cuts in a day. Do we have our electricity requirements accomplished before moving into the world of EVs? Also, the life span of li-ion battery is considered to be 8 years average. The replacement cost is almost as high as a new car. It would be a dilemma for the users who keep their car for more than 10 years.

Let's all agree upon a point, we enthusiasts are gonna miss the IC engines in a decade or so.
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Old 2nd December 2019, 15:59   #18
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

I will put forth data I have. I work for an Indian OEM in software sub-group.

In our current road-map, plan is to have our own motor, electronics and software that runs the motor. Let me emphasize a bit, we are designing and developing our own motor, not specifying the requirement to supplier. We are designing and developing the electronic controller that runs the motor, and finally we write our own software that controls the motor.

Considering that everything is being done in-house and from scratch, we work like a start-up. How many people you think are there in our group for all these 3 activities? Roughly 15.

Now, we are an R&D of ~1500 people. Major chunk is in engine and chassis. Which means, the entire Design/Development team working on core EV is 1% of R&D. You do rest of the math of jobs in existence and jobs being created.

Peace!
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Old 2nd December 2019, 16:36   #19
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

To some extent EV's will snatch away jobs as there is nothing mechanical to be worried of.

Electric cars require far less service, noting that “You’ll no longer need oil changes or oil filter, fuel filter changes, no fan belts or tune-ups.” Even brakes, will last longer because EV's use a system called regenerative braking where energy is recaptured and returned to a vehicle’s battery, reducing wear on brake pads and other parts.

However, On the bright side, electrification will create opportunities:

Much of the mechanical and materials engineering work undertaken by automobile and parts manufacturers could be replaced by jobs requiring different skill sets such as chemical, battery, and software engineering or by imports of lithium-ion batteries.

Enhancing your current skill set ensures your sustenance is what I feel.
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Old 2nd December 2019, 16:51   #20
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

Migration to EV will lead to massive job loss. Already friends who are working in Automobile industry have started to see this change.

1. It is no doubt BEVs have far lesser moving parts compared to IC Engined car. Most of the car manufactures today rely on in house IC engine. They have massive workforce for designing, validating, sourcing of engine parts. Majority of these jobs will go away in first shot. Car Manufacturers move towards outsourced BEV components, like battery packs and motors will be sourced from established brand.
2. Lot of new Car manufacturers/mostly body shops will come up to deliver cars based on outsourced BEV car platform. But this job generation will be for few jobs and that to for temporery period.
3. BEVs will be having lot longer life and few failures due to less complications and less moving parts. Service industry will also see massive job losses.
4. As if this was not sufficient for the disaster in the job market, autonomous cars are coming which will completely alter the scenario. I mean make it lot worse. Though for India it will take 2 more decades to get mainstream, but this is coming for sure. This will decimate lot of car manufacturers and will end car ownership pattern. Car manufacturers which will remain will remain as suppliers to tech giants who build autonomous cars.
5. There is some time for point number 4 to happen, but till then service based model will start to become popular. Mainly because BEV will reduce price further for renting the cars. And well known problem of infrastructure to make ownership of cars a big head ache. Meanwhile we see autonomous cars, we may already have been shifted to service based model. Thanks to OLA and UBER like ride hailing services.
6. India will see improved public transport system in future which will further eliminate need for own car.

In all Automobile industry will be facing tough time ahead. We may see fall of giants and rise of new companies. We will definitely see job losses. Auto industry is catalyst for economy of any nation. We may have to switch to totally different model of economy. Nations need to come up with new ideas. One of the idea is Universal Basic Income.

I believe, we are living in interesting times and we are going to withness big paradigm shift in the way how the economy works.

Last edited by sushantr5 : 2nd December 2019 at 16:54.
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Old 2nd December 2019, 17:18   #21
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

Man, aren't we jumping the gun a bit too early?. The present day EV's are as much complicated as ICE cars were probably in the 80's. Cars in that era were pretty uncomplicated ones with no turbo, no electronic shifts etc. Agreed, a few cars even in that era did have such refinements but not offered as standard. EV's that are produced now are pretty much uncomplicated versions. Just a motor coupled to a single speed tranny and a battery + controller pack that is made of ,well, uncomplicated thyristor based electronics.

As it goes main stream, the discerning public would clamor for more refinements and then there would an explosion in tech going inside a car. The automotive industry would then have to then hire more people to keep up with a changing market.

My vote : Absolute no. No job losses in fact better opportunities.

Last edited by srini1785 : 2nd December 2019 at 17:29.
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Old 2nd December 2019, 17:34   #22
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

While jobs related to mechanical components will reduce, lets not forget electric vehicles are getting more computing power and larger screens. With auto driving cars giving occupants more time to spend on all types of screens, at the very least, demand for app developers will increase (on a lighter note).

More likely, addition to jobs will come from newer power storage/transmission development/manufacturing, charging infrastructure development/maintenance, rehashed automotive supply chains, in-vehicle digital ecosystem (probably the biggest opportunity), etc.

Reskilling is the key word.
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Old 3rd December 2019, 01:11   #23
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

Definitely will have a negative impact, especially in the long term. With more shared services and EVs, the automotive industry is going to suffer in the first world.

Upstream:
1. R&D is a completely different ball-game More UI designers, software developers, self-driving researchers are going to be employed. These are high-skill jobs and the entry level jobs are going to reduce.
2. Manufacturers of powertrain components, ancillary units, belts would be very worried
3. Makers of stamped metal parts, wheels, suspension components etc probably don't have to worry too much
4. Overall assembly cost is going to be cheaper

Downstream:
1. Dealer revenue from servicing will fall sharply
2. Aftermarket accessories & tuning business are going to take a hit
3. There maybe an increase in jobs in the recycling sector
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Old 3rd December 2019, 15:14   #24
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

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Originally Posted by frewper View Post
A great example is the chip designed by Tesla ground up for just their autonomous driving. Which is the only reason why there is no other company who comes anywhere near as Tesla's autonomous driving.
If Tesla is so far ahead, then I wonder why they repeatedly end up as a laggard in the 'state of autonomous driving' leaderboard by Navigant Research. The chart below is from 2019, but it was the same atory for Tesla in 2018 as well

https://www.sae.org/news/2019/03/201...us-leaderboard

Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?-navigant_av_ldrbrd_2019.jpg
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Old 4th December 2019, 14:01   #25
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Default Carmakers shedding 80,000 jobs as electric era upends industry

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It’s turning out to be one of the worst years ever for auto workers across the globe amid shrinking demand and a tectonic shift in vehicle technology, with Daimler AG and Audi announcing almost 20,000 job cuts in just the past week.

All told, carmakers are eliminating more than 80,000 jobs during the coming years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. Although the cuts are concentrated in Germany, the U.S. and the U.K., faster-growing economies haven’t been immune and are seeing automakers scale back operations there.
Source
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Old 5th December 2019, 06:24   #26
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

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Originally Posted by akshye View Post
I will put forth data I have. I work for an Indian OEM in software sub-group.

In motor, and finally we write our own software that controls the motor.
What is there to develop in a motor? It’s been done.

If you want some modern designs on controllers for batteries, all of Tesla patents are free for all.
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Old 5th December 2019, 11:59   #27
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

EVs will be like film cameras, even more so. If you look at the chain, then number of support staff will be dramatically reduced. I have always argued that EVs will be real game changers.
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Old 5th December 2019, 14:17   #28
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Default Re: Will electric cars lead to job losses for auto workers?

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Originally Posted by vipul_singh View Post
If Tesla is so far ahead, then I wonder why they repeatedly end up as a laggard in the 'state of autonomous driving' leaderboard by Navigant Research.

Attachment 1941806

This report is for the "readiness" of the next generation of autonomous driving.
The companies that are on the top are not ready today. I cannot buy a google autonomous car today. Tesla started their research in late 2015, and they have a product released in 2018. Google started in 2009.

Many claim they have autonomous driving. But honestly what we is available today is only Tesla's tech.
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