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Old 8th January 2021, 21:01   #1
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Default Electric revolution is coming | Get ready

The electric revolution is happening in Europe at a rate faster than any pundit ever predicted. Here are some of the astonishing highlights of the EV revolution in Europe.
  • Market share of BEVs in major European countries in December 2020:
    Netherlands: 69%
    Norway: 66%
    UK: 16.5%
    Germany: 14%
    Sweden: 19.2%
    France: 11.1%
  • In actual numbers (BEVs in December 2020):
    Germany: 43,671
    Netherlands: ~29,000
    UK: 21,914
    France: 20,744
    Norway: 13,718
    Sweden: 6,592
  • Best selling car in the UK in December is an EV. Tesla Model 3 outsold every other car (EV or ICE) in December. VW ID3 is the 4th best selling car in December.
  • In December, full-electric vehicles (BEV) outsold diesel vehicles in the UK. The UK is generally a big market for diesel vehicles.
  • Norway is the first country in the world where BEVs reached more than 50% market share for the full year (2020). In December, 66% of sales are BEVs. 87% of sales are from BEV and plug-in hybrids.
  • 9 out of 10 top-selling vehicles in Norway were BEVs. The 10th one is XC40 which has both electric and plug-in hybrid variants.
  • All top 15 vehicles sold in the Netherlands in December are BEVs.
  • It's the same in Sweden. 12 out of 15 top-selling vehicles are BEVs. The Remaining 3 have BEV variants.

The main reasons for this growth in EVs are the greater availability of BEV models, subsidies, tax incentives, etc... There are many more models are going to be released in 2021, especially most of these are SUVs.

New BEV models in 2021:
VW ID4,
Tesla Model Y,
Hyundai Ioniq 5,
Ford Mach-e
Nissan Ariya,
Kia Ioniq 5 twin,
Audi Q4 e-tron,
Skoda Enyaq,
BMW ix3,
BMW iNext
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Old 8th January 2021, 21:28   #2
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Default re: Electric revolution is coming | Get ready

What is the source? And what is the B before EV?
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Old 8th January 2021, 21:35   #3
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Originally Posted by Gansan View Post
What is the source? And what is the B before EV?
BEV - Battery Electric Vehicle
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Old 8th January 2021, 21:38   #4
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Originally Posted by Gansan View Post
What is the B before EV?
Fancy way of saying only electric vehicles (EV).

From www.evgo.com
Quote:
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV)
Battery Electric Vehicles, also called BEVs, and more frequently called EVs, are fully-electric vehicles with rechargeable batteries and no gasoline engine.

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles or PHEVs can recharge the battery through both regenerative braking and “plugging in” to an external source of electrical power.

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)
HEVs are powered by both gasoline and electricity. The electric energy is generated by the car’s own braking system to recharge the battery. This is called ‘regenerative braking’,
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Old 8th January 2021, 22:02   #5
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Default re: Electric revolution is coming | Get ready

The moment I read the thread title, I knew it was going to be either by sri_tesla or V.Narayan, and boom, I was spot on.

Anyways, all I have to say is we'll see when it happens, in India atleast.
Right now electric cars are 0.01%, and wagon-R EV has been cancelled, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Old 8th January 2021, 22:30   #6
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I'd say EVs will also become mainstream in India sooner than anyone is expecting. The day Tesla(or any other giant like VW or Toyota) invests and manufactures an affordable, desirable and most importantly reliable(Case in point, the recent ordeal with Kona EV owners) product, masses will buy it. If this does not happen, then maybe our government will do something to accelerate their growth. This is all just wishful thinking as of now. Let's see how the Model 3 fares here with the inflated price tag.

I'm highly looking forward to the electric future. I'm a minority among BHPians and would love to see EVs replace IC cars(all the better for mother earth we have harmed the natural order very much already).

Last edited by DriverNo.420 : 8th January 2021 at 22:39. Reason: Fixed a minor typo.
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Old 8th January 2021, 23:16   #7
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EV revolution is inevitable, but in my opinion it will take it's own time (say 10 years) in India. When such a transformation is taking place, we cannot just say we will be ready just by thinking about manufacturer, market (consumer) and government policies.

Let me ask few questions that most of us(including me) would have not given a thought about,

1. Is the complete ecosystem ready with a roadmap for such transformation? I am not talking about the EV ecosystem, but the current one - Oil companies/auto ancillary related employment and economy, offshore rigs, equipment and so on...

2. Re-Skilling service technicians to handle HV systems safely! It is not the same case as IC engine battery systems.

3. Is the fire department planning to be ready with training and equipment to address vehicles burning at 3000 degree Celsius ?

4. Plan for transition phase, when EVs dominate sales and IC vehicles start disappearing on the roads how viable is to operate say a service center or gas station?

The list can go on and I will let others to add on to this.
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Old 8th January 2021, 23:23   #8
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They must try to replace the battery of the car with a fully charged one so one can continue their journey in a jiffy instead of waiting for a hour to get the battery to 80% charge. That way it would be like filling gas or changing the cylinder in an LPG car. Till this happens people in India may not be too interested in adopting battery tech. They can have full charged batteries stored in petrol pumps so the petrol pumps can easily shift from dispensing petrol/diesel to changing battery packs and no job will be lost in the process. Or there must be something like a power bank for the car battery to charge when it's out of juice. You could also save a lot of money on developing charging infrastructure. India must have first welcomed hybrid cars that maximize fossil fuel efficiency with incentives and then must have slowly jumped to EV's. EV's is a quantum leap that many in India may not take that easily given our poor infrastructure. Problem is our 'babu's' are very adept at putting the cart in front of the horse "always".

Last edited by Aditya : 12th January 2021 at 04:23. Reason: Repealed part deleted
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Old 9th January 2021, 07:21   #9
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Electric vehicles are a good solution for massive air pollution provided which majority of Indian cities are experiencing currently. The sale of electrical vehicles is on the rise in developed countries but in developing countries it will still take a long time.

The first and major hurdle which Electric vehicles face is the the cost. I don't have data but majority of cars which sell in India are priced at less than 9 or 10 lakhs. The cheapest EV (4 wheeler) currently in Inda is Nexon which retails for roughly around 14 or 15 lakhs for base model which at its price is out of pocket for majority of population. I am not talking about big cities or for people with capacity to purchase cars. The unemployment issue though related distantly to vehicle sales but when you don't have a proper income set, don't have a roof on your head, don't have money to feed a family of five or six, I don't think anyone would think for getting a car or an EV. This post may look out of place but this is the harsh reality. In a country with low wages, an EV is simply out of budget for majority of people.

The second biggest hurdle is the charging infrastructure which is improving but is still in its infancy. Though incoming of big companies like Tesla etc will definitely improve the charging infrastructure but I am not sure if all the cars sold in India would be able to charge at a Tesla charging point. The main issue being compatibility of charging plug in the car. Again, I don't have knowledge regarding electric vehicles but if the charging plug in the all EVs is different, I don't think it will help all electrical vehicle owners. In case there is a common universal type electric point which will charge all cars, then only one Maruti EV be charged at a Tesla charging point.

The third hurdle is range anxiety and time taken to charge an EV. Imagine a situation. It's a raining heavily and time is past 11 in the night. And your better half with kids and senior citizens in tow, need to stop for half an hour or an hour at a desolate national highway charging station to charge as battery is about to die. This is just an imagination but very easily a possibility. More than your family, it will be you shuddering at home.

Apologies to sound spoilsport but EVs are still quite some time away from large scale acceptance in our country.

Last edited by suhaas307 : 9th January 2021 at 16:01. Reason: Spacing for improved readability
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Old 9th January 2021, 09:48   #10
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Originally Posted by saikarthik View Post
EV revolution is inevitable, but in my opinion it will take it's own time (say 10 years) in India.
The rule of thumb is 30 years. That's usually the time it takes for a tech from the west to come to our shores and get adapted to Indian climatic conditions. Given the reluctance shown by major auto players in India(read Maruti) and with GOI dragging its feet on the issue. I don't see EV's being mainstay in the next decade even. I would be happy to be proven wrong.

Last edited by srini1785 : 9th January 2021 at 09:52.
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Old 9th January 2021, 09:53   #11
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The revolution seems to be built on subsidies, these countries are far richer than India. The only take away I got from this is that they are moving to electric from diesels, quite expected. The faster they get rid of petrol hybrid vehicles the better, they achieve nothing but half the mileage with four times the complexity.

These markets have high percentage of luxury cars in the sales mix, they are nothing like India. People are trying to cut their running costs as high fuel taxes make commuting unaffordable. This won't go on for long, every single bit of revenue lost will be recovered with additional taxes on electricity, green or otherwise.
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Old 9th January 2021, 11:04   #12
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Originally Posted by saikarthik View Post
1. Is the complete ecosystem ready with a roadmap for such transformation? I am not talking about the EV ecosystem, but the current one - Oil companies/auto ancillary related employment and economy, offshore rigs, equipment and so on...
Even if the sales of ICE cars were to be suddenly stopped, there will still be million of ICE cars running anyway. The oil business's though will have to re-invent themselves or they will die their natural death just like Nokia. The combination of electric cars and artificial intelligence is sure to cause massive job losses and the governments are already thinking in that direction with Universal Basic Income payment.

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Originally Posted by saikarthik View Post
2. Re-Skilling service technicians to handle HV systems safely! It is not the same case as IC engine battery systems.
I dont think for 99.99% of the normal service they would even be going anywhere near the HV battery. Infact apart from perhaps replacing the batteries under warranty or once they are worn out, I dont think there is any situation which calls for the technician to personally check the battery by taking it out. A Tesla's battery is still safe if you take it out - there are no live wires hanging around if that is what you mean. The diagnostics will take care of that too.

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Originally Posted by saikarthik View Post
3. Is the fire department planning to be ready with training and equipment to address vehicles burning at 3000 degree Celsius ?
Thats a long shot to be honest. Our emergency crews dont even have the basic hydraulic rescue tools - the claws, the cutters etc. If a citizen's life ever becomes important in this country I am sure they will. Again, we dont have to re-invent the wheel, we just to do what others are or will be doing.

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Originally Posted by saikarthik View Post
4. Plan for transition phase, when EVs dominate sales and IC vehicles start disappearing on the roads how viable is to operate say a service center or gas station?
If there is no petroleum company why would a petrol station exist? In the meantime they will have to re-invent themselves as well. Interesting times for sure.

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Originally Posted by avira_tk View Post
The revolution seems to be built on subsidies, these countries are far richer than India. The only take away I got from this is that they are moving to electric from diesels, quite expected.
Subsidies help for sure but I would not say they are the only reason. Its a nudge for sure but once you have lived with a good electric car, its hard to go back. Look up stats of people moving back from an electric car to ICE again - there would hardly be any. I know a few friends who have gone fully electric after buying one. I would infact argue that electric cars soon would become so good that buying an ICE vehicle would not make any sense. It already is the case atleast for me - I cannot find a better performance car for $100k AUD than a Tesla Model 3 Performance. A BMW M3 for example is 50k more, will cost considerably more to run and insure and a whole lot more to maintain, and will have much worse resale and also long term reliability and worst still it still isnt as fast as the Tesla. A 70k base Model 3 is still 5.6 seconds to 100 along with all the benefits of no maintenance or spending on fuel. Its not too far off of the price of a Golf GTI which is close to 55-60k's

Infact if you have got solar panels on your roof, you could practically drive for free or close to free given feed in tariffs arent that high.

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The faster they get rid of petrol hybrid vehicles the better, they achieve nothing but half the mileage with four times the complexity.
This could not be further from the truth. Petrol Electric Hybrids are a great idea, an idea that has been proven already, for efficiency especially when driven in the cities. Take Toyota RAV4 for example - how many 200 bhp+ petrol SUV's will deliver close to 18 kmpl in the city? Or the new Yaris which gets 25 kmpl! They arent slow cars either - the RAV4 get to 100 in 8.x seconds and the Yaris is about 10!

As for reliability - Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars on the planet - infact all Toyota Hybrids have great reliability. Its not hard to find a hybrid Camry taxi with more than 500k on the clock - still on the factory engine and original hybrid batteries. I feel they are a great stop gap solution until we go completely electric.

Quote:
Originally Posted by avira_tk View Post
These markets have high percentage of luxury cars in the sales mix, they are nothing like India. People are trying to cut their running costs as high fuel taxes make commuting unaffordable. This won't go on for long, every single bit of revenue lost will be recovered with additional taxes on electricity, green or otherwise.
They are already planning to tax electric car for every kilometer travelled in the state of Victoria but it is a regressive tax and Australia is one of the worst countries to be when it comes to incentivizing electric vehicle adoption. It will be interesting to see how the governments will cover the revenue gaps once they becomes fully mainstream.

Last edited by Chetan_Rao : 12th January 2021 at 18:29. Reason: Merged back to back posts.
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Old 9th January 2021, 11:29   #13
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My area in Pune (as do many areas) face a regular power outage on Thursdays. For all this talk of being a power surplus country, I don't get a steady power 24x7 and even a small pitter-patter of raindrops causes a power outage. I don't think I am ready for an EV as a primary vehicle yet.
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Old 9th January 2021, 12:12   #14
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EVs revolution is definitely here. However, the caveat/ fly in the ointment (s) is the crumbling power distribution infrastructure & time to charge the vehicle. I'm not considering range as much of an issue as many people with CNG manage 150ish Kms in local drives.

But, things can definitely improve as solid state batteries are under advanced R&D stages & in few years we can expect the anxieties or range & slow charging (to some extent) are put to rest.

Then pollution caused by disposal of these batteries can be the next long term threat to environment IMO, apart from use of polluting resources to generate electricity to change these vehicles.

Till then HEVs are the best bet, unless there's real & sustained effort in Fuel Cell tech supported with adequate infra.
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Old 9th January 2021, 12:39   #15
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Originally Posted by avira_tk View Post
The revolution seems to be built on subsidies, these countries are far richer than India. .
So is the fuel powered cars. Built on subsidies and incentives. Only difference is that for EV the subsidy is more direct and visible. For petroleum, its far more. For example, the cost of oil spill if charged to companies will bankrupt them many times over. But we pay for it. Kind of like corporate socialism
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