1. How fast EVs will become the mainstream in India?
A) Depends on the $/kWh for lithium-ion batteries in India. It is expected to come to sub $100/kWh (probably even lower) by 2025 as the scale is achieved (through fleets electrification that is being targeted in India right now),
stable supply chain of raw materials for battery manufacturing, and gigafactory scale manufacturing of Li-ion batteries (coming up in multiple states in India). When $/kWh cost of battery comes down, EVs in India will have an upfront cost parity with ICEs.
2. Will IC engines co-exist with EVs and if yes till how long?
A) They will but ICEs are only bound to become unattractive from a total cost of ownership perspective. The faster the prices of batteries come down, the sooner ICEs will not be cost-competitive for operating and mainitaining. But even with unattractive TCO, ICEs will be on Indian roads at least for the next two decades albeit the yearly addition might come down.
3. What will happen to the existing fuel stations?
A) Not much in the near future but might get converted into EV charging stations, battery swapping stations, hydrogen refuelling stations, etc. depending on the path the owners of these stations take. We can already see major oil and gas players like Indian Oil, HP, BP, IGL, etc. and other Indian PSUs like EESL, NTPC foraying into EV charging business. Indian Oil has gone one step ahead and has set up a hydrogen refuelling station in Faridabad. As utilisation rates increase for EV charging stations with the increase in EV numbers, they are bound to co-exist with (or even replace!) the existing fuel stations (petrol/diesel/CNG).
4. Will the existing fuel stations offer normal fuels as well as recharging ports (High tension electric lines and fossil fuels are a deadly combination)?
A) Yes, they would.
In the United States, fueling station operators such as Sheetz, the mid-Atlantic chain Royal Farms and South Carolina–based Sphinx have partnered with charging network providers to offer charging services. In India,
the Power Ministry is now mooting the idea to have at least one EV charging station at all the fuel pumps in the country and the Petroleum Ministry has mandated all new fuel pumps to have infrastructure for at least one alternative fuel. EV chargers come with high safety standards and certifications. In fact, setting up an EV charging station requires the technical evaluation, adherence to Central Electricity Authority (CEA) guidelines, inspection and approval of electric utilities. This not only includes the setting up of chargers but also their placement within the area, marking the parking places, foundation of charger, placement of fire extinguisher, backend electrical infra like internal cabling, transformer, MCBs/ELCBs, earthing, etc. One can find more details on your electric utility's website; here is one from
Delhi.
5. Cost of the batteries, in the long term, will the cost of replacing batteries will be more than the fuel cost (Considering a normal car runs 50,000 kms in 5 years)
A) Consider this:
An ICE car (considering average fuel efficiency of 20 kmpl) running for 50000 km will consume 2500 litres of fuel (petrol/diesel) whereas Tata Nexon EV (considering a range of 200 km and 90% efficiency) will consume 8389 units of electricity. 2500 litres of fuel @ INR 90 per litre will cost in total
INR 225000 and 8389 units @ INR 5 per unit (average residential tariff in India) will cost in total
~INR 42000. A difference of ~INR 1.83 lakhs in fuel costs alone, at the end of 5 years and 50000 km! After 5 years (by 2026) the trend predicts Li-ion batteries will come down to
~$85/kWh. If you are replacing the 30.2 kWh battery (without warranty) @ $85/kWh (~INR 6200/kWh) after 5 years, it will cost you ~INR 1.87 lakhs, a very minor difference of INR 4000 after accounting the INR 1.83 lakhs in fuel savings. Remember, in this I did not take into account the servicing costs over 5 years for both these vehicles, an area where EVs have advantage over ICEs. And also considered flat fuel rates for the 5 year period.
I did try to give as accurate calculation as possible, let me know if something looks wrong.
6. What will be the resale value of EVs, considering a 5- to 7-year-old EV may require a battery change. In that case, battery change will negate the savings made compared to an IC engine car.
A) Resale value for an EV in India is difficult to ascertain at this point but the depreciation should definitely be not as high as an ICE. Battery change for an e-car, if required within 8 years of purchase, will generally be covered by the OEM's warranty (since 8 years is becoming a norm for e-car batteries in India). The second-hand e-car market has started in countries like the US, for e.g. a ~$29900 (INR 22 lakhs) Nissan Leaf S 2018 models are on the used car market for
$17000 (INR 12 lakhs) to $20000 (INR 14.5 lakhs).
7. What is the current cost of batteries inside these cars (Tata Nexon, Hyundai Kona, MG ZS EV et al)?
A) Current NITI Aayog estimates put the figure at
INR 13000/kWh (~$175/kWh) but this is just the cost of base cells/packs and there are after inputs like a battery management system, related electronics and an active cooling system. Depending on the complexity, chemistry, and application, this might go as high as $250/kWh (~INR 18200/kWh). Based on the battery capacities, Nexon @ 30.2kWh, Kona @ 39.2kWh, ZS EV @ 44.5kWh, one can calculate and get an approx estimate.
8. In future will universal batteries come and then what will happen to the existing EVs?
A) No, universal batteries might target vehicle segments like 2-wh and 3-wh that are feasible for battery swapping rather than charging. This is highly difficult in case of cars, buses, trucks and other light commercial vehicles because of heavier batteries (difficult to swap), proprietary battery chemistries and tech like BMS, USPs (e.g. low cost for Nexon, high consistent range for ZS EV), etc. There might be battery tech sharing between the OEMs but universal batteries look like a very distant dream.
9. Is it too early to switch to an EV, and why not fuel-efficient hybrids?
A) Not in 2-wh and 3-wh. In fact, you will find electric 2-wh and 3-wh EV products better than ICEs. In case of car if you are from a metro city and if 90% of your daily rides are within 150 km (to and fro) and are able to reach your charger (home) at the end of day, go for an EV. I hope hybrids do well in India, esp. the upcoming Honda City Hybrid considering good reviews regarding its fuel efficiency from Thailand and other SE Asia markets. MS has disappointed with its namesake mild hybrid tech that was introduced just for taking advantage of govt incentives and it
backfired. I personally consider hybrids are a great transitionary tech from ICEs to EVs, esp to prove the effectiveness of electric mobility tech to Indian masses but they would not reach upfront cost parity with conventional cars in the foreseeable future.
10. With a simpler technology, new startups will be venturing into EV manufacturing and sales. How will the established manufacturers react to it?
A) Few of them are welcoming, for e.g. Hero Motors. It not only established it own Hero Electric but has also been investing in EV startups like Ather Energy. Others like Bajaj are skeptical of the new entrants but it is ultimately the products that speak for themselves. In 2-wh segment Ather, PureEV, Okinawa, Ampere, etc. are doing really good. Most of the electric 3-wh segment is dominated by relatively unknown startups, esp in the e-rickshaw segment, though most of these will weed out due to the inferior products (manufactured/assembled).
11. Will the price of EVs drop drastically in the future?
A) Not drastically but yes they will follow the path of battery prices. The cost of Li-ion batteries is expected to come as low as
$62/kWh by 2030 but the limited availability of metals like cobalt, nickel (located in countries with geo-political risks) will also keep costs high if the R&D on battery does not reduce the dependence on these metals in the newer battery chemistries. But a new battery for your Nexon EV would definitely be much less than INR 17k-18k/kWh after 8 years when you are looking for a replacement.
12. Should I buy an EV over an IC engine car now?
A) Go for an EV if
- you are from a metro city in India
- your 90% of your daily travel is less than 150 km and you return back at the end of day to your charger (home)
- (this point is optional) it is your second car (if you are already owning an ICE one).
If the first two conditions are not being met and you have an immediate car purchase requirement, go for a proper hybrid (preferably, Honda City Hybrid).