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Old 1st June 2021, 19:12   #31
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Default Re: Is it time to buy an Electric Vehicle?

Right now the EV space needs only one thing to boost sales - cost reduction. If it becomes cheaper people will buy it, its that simple.

A good number of Indian car buyers already own a vehicle so range is not a problem, making EVs cheaper will make their adoption faster. 10L vs 15L for a nexon petrol vs EV, it simply makes no sense.
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Old 1st June 2021, 22:59   #32
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Nope, not now for me but is on my radar within the next 5 years. I have no anxiety regarding range, but I want to see how the EVs pan out in terms of long term ownership. For instance replacing batteries, better infrastructure etc. Electric scooters might go mainstream sooner compared to road cars, while heavy vehicles are still far away. However if I were to move into a city or state where the infrastructure is pretty good say like California, I would definitely pick one EV car sooner.
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Old 2nd June 2021, 01:13   #33
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EV as a first car: most probably no. EV as a second car though: a very strong yes.

Why no for a first car?
My colleague's wife here in the US had an emergency and had to be taken to a hospital. She was living in a different city, and my colleague wanted to catch a flight to reach her. The nearest airport was an hour away, and my colleague didn't have enough charge in his Model S to take him there. I had to drop him, and then keep his car charged for him, so that, when he returned from his extended stay, he wouldn't have to call Tesla roadside assistance to juice up the battery a little (he doesn't have a wall outlet to charge his car at his current residential place).
So, I would assume that, as a first car, you'd want all sorts of reliability and common conveniences from the car. An electric vehicle will probably not do that during emergencies.

Why a strong yes for a second car?
Taking out moving parts makes the car soo much simpler. No routine oil changes, no hassles of engine wear, you don't even need to wait 2 minutes for the car to warm up! You don't need to pull up to a conventional mechanic and have him tell you how a small O2 sensor is throwing off the entire feel of your car! Shorter trips for an EV are not a problem, since the efficiency is almost the same (if not more) in city driving. All the extra tech, that makes the car more interesting, is something else in itself. Just like an old phone, if you charge it after keeping it discharged for more than a year, it will start right up, and work as if it is just another day. You can't get that with ICE.

So, for a two-car garage - a strong yes (because charging issues can easily be alleviated by charging at home every night). For a single car garage - unless you have access to other cars during emergencies, or for a long road trip, you're better off sticking to a conventional car.
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Old 2nd June 2021, 07:47   #34
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EV era? I don't think this dream will come true in near future at least in India.

Our cities are congested. It is difficult to find parking space for two wheelers, how we are going to set up EV charging stations for four wheelers? Also due to shortage of EV charging facility, interstate travel won't be possible. I read on TBHP, in foreign, EV owners are turning back to ICE car because of the same reason.

For now, EV will work best for the those who wants cost effective option for city commutation (only) and have EV charging facility at the society parking.
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Old 2nd June 2021, 15:00   #35
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Default Re: Is it time to buy an Electric Vehicle?

My 2 cents for not buying EVs yet:
1. Full recharge duration (> 8 hours, as its not advised to use fast charger regularly,which means its not ideal for road trips)
2. We still don't know if its possible to get rid of an older battery pack & replace with a new one after 8-10 years?
3. They are not cheap, they will only be popular if the on road price in within Rs 10L
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Old 4th June 2021, 21:30   #36
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Default Re: Is it time to buy an Electric Vehicle?

1. How fast EVs will become the mainstream in India?
A) Depends on the $/kWh for lithium-ion batteries in India. It is expected to come to sub $100/kWh (probably even lower) by 2025 as the scale is achieved (through fleets electrification that is being targeted in India right now), stable supply chain of raw materials for battery manufacturing, and gigafactory scale manufacturing of Li-ion batteries (coming up in multiple states in India). When $/kWh cost of battery comes down, EVs in India will have an upfront cost parity with ICEs.

2. Will IC engines co-exist with EVs and if yes till how long?
A) They will but ICEs are only bound to become unattractive from a total cost of ownership perspective. The faster the prices of batteries come down, the sooner ICEs will not be cost-competitive for operating and mainitaining. But even with unattractive TCO, ICEs will be on Indian roads at least for the next two decades albeit the yearly addition might come down.

3. What will happen to the existing fuel stations?
A) Not much in the near future but might get converted into EV charging stations, battery swapping stations, hydrogen refuelling stations, etc. depending on the path the owners of these stations take. We can already see major oil and gas players like Indian Oil, HP, BP, IGL, etc. and other Indian PSUs like EESL, NTPC foraying into EV charging business. Indian Oil has gone one step ahead and has set up a hydrogen refuelling station in Faridabad. As utilisation rates increase for EV charging stations with the increase in EV numbers, they are bound to co-exist with (or even replace!) the existing fuel stations (petrol/diesel/CNG).

4. Will the existing fuel stations offer normal fuels as well as recharging ports (High tension electric lines and fossil fuels are a deadly combination)?
A) Yes, they would. In the United States, fueling station operators such as Sheetz, the mid-Atlantic chain Royal Farms and South Carolina–based Sphinx have partnered with charging network providers to offer charging services. In India, the Power Ministry is now mooting the idea to have at least one EV charging station at all the fuel pumps in the country and the Petroleum Ministry has mandated all new fuel pumps to have infrastructure for at least one alternative fuel. EV chargers come with high safety standards and certifications. In fact, setting up an EV charging station requires the technical evaluation, adherence to Central Electricity Authority (CEA) guidelines, inspection and approval of electric utilities. This not only includes the setting up of chargers but also their placement within the area, marking the parking places, foundation of charger, placement of fire extinguisher, backend electrical infra like internal cabling, transformer, MCBs/ELCBs, earthing, etc. One can find more details on your electric utility's website; here is one from Delhi.

5. Cost of the batteries, in the long term, will the cost of replacing batteries will be more than the fuel cost (Considering a normal car runs 50,000 kms in 5 years)
A) Consider this:
An ICE car (considering average fuel efficiency of 20 kmpl) running for 50000 km will consume 2500 litres of fuel (petrol/diesel) whereas Tata Nexon EV (considering a range of 200 km and 90% efficiency) will consume 8389 units of electricity. 2500 litres of fuel @ INR 90 per litre will cost in total INR 225000 and 8389 units @ INR 5 per unit (average residential tariff in India) will cost in total ~INR 42000. A difference of ~INR 1.83 lakhs in fuel costs alone, at the end of 5 years and 50000 km! After 5 years (by 2026) the trend predicts Li-ion batteries will come down to ~$85/kWh. If you are replacing the 30.2 kWh battery (without warranty) @ $85/kWh (~INR 6200/kWh) after 5 years, it will cost you ~INR 1.87 lakhs, a very minor difference of INR 4000 after accounting the INR 1.83 lakhs in fuel savings. Remember, in this I did not take into account the servicing costs over 5 years for both these vehicles, an area where EVs have advantage over ICEs. And also considered flat fuel rates for the 5 year period.
I did try to give as accurate calculation as possible, let me know if something looks wrong.

6. What will be the resale value of EVs, considering a 5- to 7-year-old EV may require a battery change. In that case, battery change will negate the savings made compared to an IC engine car.
A) Resale value for an EV in India is difficult to ascertain at this point but the depreciation should definitely be not as high as an ICE. Battery change for an e-car, if required within 8 years of purchase, will generally be covered by the OEM's warranty (since 8 years is becoming a norm for e-car batteries in India). The second-hand e-car market has started in countries like the US, for e.g. a ~$29900 (INR 22 lakhs) Nissan Leaf S 2018 models are on the used car market for $17000 (INR 12 lakhs) to $20000 (INR 14.5 lakhs).

7. What is the current cost of batteries inside these cars (Tata Nexon, Hyundai Kona, MG ZS EV et al)?
A) Current NITI Aayog estimates put the figure at INR 13000/kWh (~$175/kWh) but this is just the cost of base cells/packs and there are after inputs like a battery management system, related electronics and an active cooling system. Depending on the complexity, chemistry, and application, this might go as high as $250/kWh (~INR 18200/kWh). Based on the battery capacities, Nexon @ 30.2kWh, Kona @ 39.2kWh, ZS EV @ 44.5kWh, one can calculate and get an approx estimate.

8. In future will universal batteries come and then what will happen to the existing EVs?
A) No, universal batteries might target vehicle segments like 2-wh and 3-wh that are feasible for battery swapping rather than charging. This is highly difficult in case of cars, buses, trucks and other light commercial vehicles because of heavier batteries (difficult to swap), proprietary battery chemistries and tech like BMS, USPs (e.g. low cost for Nexon, high consistent range for ZS EV), etc. There might be battery tech sharing between the OEMs but universal batteries look like a very distant dream.

9. Is it too early to switch to an EV, and why not fuel-efficient hybrids?
A) Not in 2-wh and 3-wh. In fact, you will find electric 2-wh and 3-wh EV products better than ICEs. In case of car if you are from a metro city and if 90% of your daily rides are within 150 km (to and fro) and are able to reach your charger (home) at the end of day, go for an EV. I hope hybrids do well in India, esp. the upcoming Honda City Hybrid considering good reviews regarding its fuel efficiency from Thailand and other SE Asia markets. MS has disappointed with its namesake mild hybrid tech that was introduced just for taking advantage of govt incentives and it backfired. I personally consider hybrids are a great transitionary tech from ICEs to EVs, esp to prove the effectiveness of electric mobility tech to Indian masses but they would not reach upfront cost parity with conventional cars in the foreseeable future.

10. With a simpler technology, new startups will be venturing into EV manufacturing and sales. How will the established manufacturers react to it?
A) Few of them are welcoming, for e.g. Hero Motors. It not only established it own Hero Electric but has also been investing in EV startups like Ather Energy. Others like Bajaj are skeptical of the new entrants but it is ultimately the products that speak for themselves. In 2-wh segment Ather, PureEV, Okinawa, Ampere, etc. are doing really good. Most of the electric 3-wh segment is dominated by relatively unknown startups, esp in the e-rickshaw segment, though most of these will weed out due to the inferior products (manufactured/assembled).

11. Will the price of EVs drop drastically in the future?
A) Not drastically but yes they will follow the path of battery prices. The cost of Li-ion batteries is expected to come as low as $62/kWh by 2030 but the limited availability of metals like cobalt, nickel (located in countries with geo-political risks) will also keep costs high if the R&D on battery does not reduce the dependence on these metals in the newer battery chemistries. But a new battery for your Nexon EV would definitely be much less than INR 17k-18k/kWh after 8 years when you are looking for a replacement.

12. Should I buy an EV over an IC engine car now?
A) Go for an EV if
- you are from a metro city in India
- your 90% of your daily travel is less than 150 km and you return back at the end of day to your charger (home)
- (this point is optional) it is your second car (if you are already owning an ICE one).
If the first two conditions are not being met and you have an immediate car purchase requirement, go for a proper hybrid (preferably, Honda City Hybrid).
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Old 4th June 2021, 21:52   #37
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I'd really like my next car to be an EV. I'm not a 2-car person. My current car is 11 years old and I will want to replace it in the next 2-3 years, and am keeping an eye out on the EV scene.

Here are my considerations:
  • City charging: enough outlets today, plus I am guessing one can just plug in it at night whenever needed.
  • Highway charging: a concern. Right now there aren't enough outlets; theoretically one can do Chennai-Bangalore, for example, with just one charging stop, but if that stop is not available one will have severe range anxiety. However, the charging network outlet seems to be growing rapidly, via Tata as well as third parties like Zeon.
  • Longer drives (eg, 500km) would require at least two stops and the trip would take about 2 hours longer than in a petrol car. Or worse, since driving at > 100 km/h may reduce range significantly.
  • Upfront cost: significant. The Nexon is the only EV that could possibly be within my budget. But costs twice what I would likely spend on a petrol car.
  • Savings over time: hopefully significant. Petrol savings over 10 years would be a few lakhs, and hopefully maintenance costs will be much lower too.
  • Comfort, responsiveness, driving pleasure: I have never driven an EV but it looks like EVs win handily here.
In short: if I needed a car for city driving and regularly drove 30+ km/day, and outstation trips weren't important, I'd go for the Nexon EV today, no question. But with my current habits, I will wait for the price to drop and for the range to go up, ideally to 500 km (advertised) / 350km (real-world), which I'm hoping will happen within 1-2 years.
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Old 4th June 2021, 22:38   #38
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A bit off topic because I live in the UK. My company car lease is ending in December 2021 and I am on the lookout for my next car. (Will again be a company car.) With congestion surcharges and ULEZ (Ultra Low Emission Zones) springing up everywhere here (London, Reading, Birmingham etc), I am seriously considering getting an EV. With an ICE car, going forward, I will be paying 10-20 pounds a day if I go to London or visit the Reading town centre.

Of course, England is a small place! My daily commute (pre-covid) is about 30 miles. Driving for more than 100 miles is a "once-in-a-blue-moon" activity for most people here. The lengthiest road trip I have taken so far in the UK is the drive to Scotland from my place - about 400 odd miles one way.

We have a much better charging infrastructure here than you do in India. Still, range anxiety is a big factor even today in the UK. As someone above rightly mentioned, what happens if there is an emergency and you have no charge in the car? (Of course, you can always hail a Uber or ask your neighbour to drive you.)

As a second car, it is not a complex decision. Just go get one. But, if it is the only car you will be driving (My case), it is hard to shrug off the negative points - at least at this point on the EV maturity curve here in the UK. I will most likely still opt for an EV because most of my drives are either to London or to Reading and I do not want to pay through the nose every time I go there but there are some significant gaps that are really concerning.

Looking at Ford Mach-E and Tesla Model Y as potential options.

Just thought of providing a "developed country" perspective. It is not all roses yet - for EVs even here.
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Old 6th June 2021, 10:04   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Technic90 View Post
The Rs 4,00,000 buying difference is after heavy taxes on fuel and ICE cars and big subsidies on EV cars. And these subsidies will not go on forever. If you want to consider petrol, Nexon (XM) costs Rs 9,84,000, that's around Rs 5,50,000 less than EV. Unless I made a mistake somewhere, the numbers suggest it makes no sense to buy EV as of today. Apart from numbers, there are other problems (not covered before)
[/b]
The pleasure of driving an Nexon EV is miles ahead of its petrol and diesel counterparts.

But yes, your points are very valid. I'd love the nexon at 10L on road for it to be a value deal.

Nevertheless, The battery disposal is a MAIN CONCERN for me as its going to lead to a landfill in another decade.


Unless we evolve in technology, especially battery tech, Lithium is going to make life hell for us on a global level.
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Old 14th June 2021, 22:56   #40
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I'll buy an EV as soon as a decent EV hatchback is available (I'm looking at you, Tata Altroz EV and Wagon R EV [eye roll]).

I live in Kerala at the moment in the countryside. My daily usage is barely more than 50 km. I can plug in at home. The few times I go over 100 km a day, there are DC fast chargers coming up. I can easily charge my EV when I take food/bathroom break effectively not spending any additional time. It'll make me happy to know that I am saving 1000s of Rupees on fuel on such trips over and above the happiness derived from not polluting air inconsiderately. If I'm going on a 1000 km trip (maybe once in a couple of years), there's every chance that I'll need an Innova or something similar anyway. I'll gladly rent a vehicle suitable for the mission with all the money I saved.

Other positives.

1. Instant Torque
2. Lower noise
3. Not having to worry about maintenance
4. Not having to expose myself to carcinogenic fuel fumes
5. Higher resale value (No used [modern] EVs are available on most online classifieds). Check how much used E2Os are going for, given how stone age the thing is.

Myth Busters.

1. What if common replaceable batteries take over: I bet, we'll have fusion powered flying cars before that. Have you ever thought why all cars aren't running on one single engine? Answer is, its not as simple as that.

2. Batteries don't last: I wonder all three modern passenger vehicles available today offer 8 year warranty on battery. Don't compare an EV traction battery to you cell phone battery. Passenger EVs don't cycle 100 % everyday, have better thermal and battery management. I can go on..

3. People will miss the sound: Sound of the silencer muffled, 4 pot, ~100 bhp inline 4? No offence. I don't think we are not missing much here in India on an average/median basis. You have been taken for a ride. They sold the shortcomings of a run-of-the-mill ICE as feature to you. Time to move on.

4. You need charging as fast as many chargers as gas stations: No you don't. You only need to charge away from home if you exceed the 100% range of your EV.

5. Its the best time to buy ICE as the resale value of the current EVs will fall: What do you think will happen to the value of even older tech that is the ICE? Wait for ICE to be banned from certain city cores and see what happens to the value of your used ICE vehicle.

6. EVs take forever to charge: Checkout charging network like Zeon. They are setting up near food courts, so that you can fill up your car in the time you take to have food, actually saving your from another detour to fill up gas.

7. Some solid state battery is around the corner: There will always be something better around the corner. Solid state batteries in its promised true form aren't very close to commercialisation. If so, Tesla would know.

8. Fuel cell: Get a break, and go watch hundreds of YouTube videos debunking this.

If you are the kind of person that can't charge at home and have 1000 km trips every other day in which you can't take food and bathroom breaks, and can't be bothered to occasionally take taxi or rent cars, EVs aren't for you.

The most range anxiety I faced was once I almost ran out of fuel in a national park where there were no gas stations for 30 or so miles from where I was.
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Old 14th June 2021, 23:15   #41
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It depends on what kind of use cases you're looking for.

If the EV is going to be your primary car and an all-rounder, that's still some years away as most of the working class purchase one car which can fulfill many purposes, be it a road trip, office/city commute or driving to their hometown once or twice a year.

In this case overall feasibility is better for ICE as it can go to most places by filling up the tank.

If the EV is going to be a secondary car and being used in city limits with an occasional highway jaunt, then it makes a lot of sense in the current scenario as FAME is giving out a subsidiy of Rs.15,000/kWh currently and some states offer a registration waiver too. Plus city commutes can be easier as you don't have to worry about maintenance costs here. Just plug the car charger once a week and you can get a decent range of 200-250kms which can cover the regular city commute for a week with a single charge. The icing on the cake is that if you take a loan to purchase an EV, the interest paid on it can be declared for tax claims under section 80.

Can't say the same about subsidy or loan interest benefits in the future (5-10 years) as there will be more users and automatically subsidiy and other benefits for EV's might get discontinued.
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Old 15th June 2021, 07:56   #42
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EV is still something new in India. And the main thing is that we still do not have proper infrastructure around mainly for charging. Even CNG for me is a failure, because of the waiting time. Whenever I pass by any CNG pump in Mumbai, there is a huge line for refilling. What is the point then. In a Metropolitan city and financial capital of India, if you have to wait for hours to refill your car, then its useless.

Being a road tripper, for me proper and fast charging stations across the highways is very necessary and this is going to take long time.

Efficiency of batteries is also another question. A vehicle that runs for 400 kms. on one charge, will not run the same after 3 years.

We still have remote villages which so not have proper electricity and we are talking of EVs.

Anything new that comes takes time to get adopted.

Last edited by ruzbehxyz : 15th June 2021 at 07:58.
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Old 15th June 2021, 08:13   #43
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I think EV today makes sense as a second car/bike but it will take few more years before we see it replace primary mode of transport.

Only use case I can think of today is city runs - scooters ranging 75-100kms or alto sized cars that can run 200k is what we need for our cities.

Biggest challenge however would be the improving public transportation system (by end of this decade) which will also be mostly electric and optimized (avoiding traffic jams)
So, I feel the success of the EV is determined by the long range and fast charging capabilities.

I would have preferred push towards plug in hybrids as a first step towards electrification.(eg camry tech in c/d segment) .

Last edited by rajshenoy : 15th June 2021 at 08:26.
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Old 17th June 2021, 02:44   #44
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QFrankly for me even the current range that EVs churn of about 300 kms is just fine, but we would need charging stations to come up like gas stations, even if not close to sheer number of gas stations obviously, but say at least one every 50kms, that would be fantastic for planning longer journeys. And ofcourse they should be generic, i.e cater to all vehicles and not just specific brands.
Faster charging is also the need of the hour, I can't put a number to it, but anything under an hour should be good, given that that's how much time one might spend on a scheduled break during a journey.

I believe that's where the future is headed too, EV charging stations dotted on highways with attached cafes and restaurants so people treat the charging stop as a general break to unwind.
Even if it's just 300km of range, quick charging will ease the burden greatly, like now days you have phones with relatively weaker 4,000 mah batteries but complimented with 65W and 120W chargers, so that when you're out of juice (which you will be) you can top up in no time.

Also awaiting longish term reports on EVs, like 3 years or 5 years down the line, because batteriy health will deteriorate but would be interesting to see how much they do in vehicles. If the range falls to about 200 kms in 5 years then that's still great, but if it starts falling below 100 kms then that would be a cause of grave concern.

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Old 18th June 2021, 03:13   #45
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Hello ,
Now since the gasoline has breached Rs 100 Mark, Rs 102 in Pune , it does make sense to go electric. The gas prices will go North as its seen as money earning due to taxation , just like alc in India . FYI A car is considered a luxury in Israel and is twice as expensive .
For super average, boring person like me a commute to office daily (On assignment in India ) costs Rs 400 in fuel bill and is too much . Would have done an electric stand scooter in Israel . But is not possible in Pune.

Its just a little wait till IMHO to see a plethora of EV cars.A good below 10 L car is what will tick actually. A TATA, or Great wall (Am ok with Chinese as an Israeli) or Reno should do the trick .
Actually a preowned Nano Auto will be cheaper then an EV .
Nexon seems expensive.
Thanks - NAJ .

Last edited by naj : 18th June 2021 at 03:43.
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