Quote:
Originally Posted by abhishek46 Mr. Reynolds/Toyota can lobby to their heart's content.
However, the writing is on the wall.
Consumers in advanced markets are now presented with numerous options for EVs.
Almost every major automaker has jumped full fledged into the EV Scene.
Lastly, there is good infrastructure for charging as well in developed markets & most importantly EV charging speeds are reducing with every generation.
Compared to this, Hydrogen is no-where.
Toyota must understand, and move on. |
Absolutely correct. The battle was never about who’s cleaner. It’s always about economics and how satisfied drivers are.
The very initial early adopter push for EVs was possible because people who
1. Had a suburban home with garage (US lingo)
2. Had budget to replace at least one car with EV
3. Realised that charging is far cheaper than fuel costs and servicing
The reason H2 FCEV didn’t take off on the piggy back of early adopters is exactly this :
1. You can’t refill overnight. And initial H2 infra (even today’s) is nowhere near charging stations. It’s cheaper to build chargers than H2 filling stations.
2. Mirai FCEV (2021) is actually costlier than the EVs like model 3 and model y. 400mi H2 range is moot when you can’t fill it. 300mi with US wide changing infra (except North West) is much better than 400mi and no filling station outside CA.
3. H2 is sold at ~$17 to the kg, and for full tank on mirai, you’re paying 5kgX17 = 85$/₹6300. Close to ₹10/km, for perspective, at US household Avg of 0.07$/kWh (₹5.25) a Model 3 LR goes 565km on ₹430 for 82kWh. <₹1/km.
It was never about who’s cleaner. Customers who were aware enough about these things, chose electric. Still do, will do. The clean credentials of an EV would be 3rd or 4th on the list of things a driver likes about their EV. Most go in this order
1. Running cost
2. Performance
3. Techy-Features (Tesla only for most part)
4. Cleaner than gas/diesel.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sri_tesla I find it funny that many BHPians still propagating the same myths about EVs again and again. Here are some common examples: - EVs are as pollutant as ICE cars (Fact: Even when completely powered by coal, EVs are cleaner than ICEs. With the grid getting cleaner (solar and wind) every day, EVs become much cleaner over their lifetime.)
- Hydrogen is the real clean fuel. (Fact: Hydrogen uses 3 to 4 times electricity to travel the same distance as an EV)
- Hydrogen can be generated with renewable energy and is much cleaner than EVs. (Fact: Again, you can use the same electricity to directly charge batteries instead of producing hydrogen and it only requires 1/4th of that energy).
- Manufacturing of batteries is dirty. (Fact:While it's true, producing petrol/diesel is not clean either. In the case of EVs, you only need to do it once).
- EVs never catch up due to slow charging. (Fact: With current technology, you can get 200km of range in just 10 mins and 400km range in just 30 min. In the future, it gets even better. It won't be as fast as fuel but won't be a worry for the majority of customers.
If people are hoping for EVs to never catch up and ICE vehicles will live forever, then they need to wake up. It's like hoping for coal to be the main source of electricity forever. EV adoption is happening at a rapid pace in major markets like Europe and China. The same will be the case in the US in the next 2-3 years. Renewable energy and electric vehicles are where the investment dollars are going.
India also adding more renewable power than coal for the last 5 years. 90% of the coal plants that were in the planning stage 6-7 years ago are stopped. It's now cheaper to build a new solar or wind power plant than maintaining the existing coal power plant. The same will happen in the EV space. All it needs is a single EV model with a decent range (~250 km) at around Rs 10 lakh price. In 2 wheeler space, a model with 80 to 100 km range at less than Rs 1 lakh price. |
Absolutely.
Might I add a few more points about FCEVs :
1. H2 fuel cells use Platinum and Palladium which also by the way, need to be mined. No one wants to talk about these metals, apparently.
2. Mirai FCEV has a 1.2kWh lithium ion battery. I don’t think majority of people realise that FCEVs use lithium batteries and not lead acids.
3. FCEVs might win on weight (Specific Energy ie kWh/kg of H2 > lithium battery) but on volume (Energy density ie kWh/m^3 H2 < lithium ion) The mirai has a combined tank volume of 141L. That’s not the amount of H2, that’s the dimensions of tanks. So you get this in the rear seat :
You can optimise for heavier weight of batteries. But what about H2 tanks being 3x size of petrol tanks to give same range?
Small FCEVs will have same problem as small EVs : not enough range due to space/weight constraints respectively for FCEVs and BEVs.
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As for green credentials of EVs themselves, we’re lucky that ICCT released a study on LCA of EVs in EU, USA, China and India. Mind you, LCA study includes
EVs : battery production and electricity production
ICE : Oil production and refining (media never talks about this) and the tailpipe emissions.
Study results : EVs cleaner by 19% in India TODAY. 34% cleaner by 2030.
While the major push in sales comes from reasons other than clean credentials, it’s not false that EVs are clean today, even after including battery production and coal electricity.
Side note : I did a spaghetti math analysis on purely the grid side of things (ignoring the battery production and fuel production) some time ago, which yielded a 28% lower emissions in EVs. Of course, I assume, if I had added fuel and battery production into the mix, the value could’ve been closer to the actual official study.
It’s not the most accurate of things, but if you want, you can see it
here on Tesla Club India’s blog.