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Old 13th August 2021, 12:00   #1
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Default EV shift brings job losses in Germany & Japan

Multiple automakers across the world have announced their transition to an EV-only lineup in the near future. This, however, seems to have inadvertently put a risk to thousands of jobs manufacturing engine components for various vehicles.

According to a media report, the global transition to EVs will affect hundreds of thousands of automotive jobs in the coming decades. Reports suggest that in Japan alone, the rise of EVs will threaten the jobs of over 84,000 employees by 2050; which is more than 10% of the total jobs in auto parts production.

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This change is said to have already started taking effect, with Honda announcing the shutdown of its powertrain factory in Moka, Japan in 2025. The shutdown is part of the company's shift to EVs, which will witness roughly 900 employees being relocated to other sites.

Reports suggest that while IC engine powered vehicles need 30,000 components, electric vehicles require just half the number. Volkmar Denner, CEO of Robert Bosch, stated that while it takes 10 people to make a fuel-injection unit of an IC engine, it requires just a single person to produce a motor.

The report also suggests that similar to Japan, Germany is yet another country that could witness multiple job cuts in the automotive sector. As per a survey by Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich - 215,000 jobs would be affected in Germany by 2030, most of which are related to internal combustion engines.

Source: Nikkei.Asia

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Old 13th August 2021, 16:23   #2
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Default Re: EV shift brings job losses in Germany & Japan

This was expected, automakers can't even try and re-skill them because it takes fewer people to produce a car end-to-end now. Another factor could be the longevity of cars- if an electric car is made well enough, people might hold onto one longer than an ICE car since there are fewer things to go wrong with it. A battery pack change, or maybe even a new motor and you're on your way- doing so with an engine or a complicated DCT would be untenable.

In terms of near to mid term numbers though, the volume of cars manufactured might actually go up, as more and more people start migrating towards EV once the technology becomes a bit more mature, and more options are made available to customers. That might be the only point of respite for autoworkers' job security.

Flip side of the coin- newer types of jobs will come up- battery tech, EV drivetrains, disruption via different types of in-car experiences, semi/autonomous tech etc.
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Old 13th August 2021, 17:35   #3
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Default Re: EV shift brings job losses in Germany & Japan

This is inevitable. All the automotive and mechanical engineers will find themselves helpless in a few years if they don't migrate to some other field. It's easier said than done, I know, but it is what it is.

On the other hand, other kinds of engineers, specifically software, computer, electrical & sound engineers would find huge intake in the automobile industry. I still believe that there are many unforeseen challenges that the EV industry would face, but only when mass manufacturing starts. It'll give rise to some specialised needs; persons with very, very specific skills. One thing that struck my mind just a few days back: in the EV world, we might have to bid farewell to any kind of box-shaped designs of cars. Since achieving maximum range is the first priority, making aerodynamic cars might turn out to be an absolute necessity. Loss of range (precious range, at that) due to a huge drag coefficient might just be banned by the law. But it's a long time away. At the moment, we can just speculate and prepare ourselves.

Another intake that'll see a boom in the EV automobile industry is Automobile Designers. It's going to be absolutely huge, with designers working in a much more collaborative way with the engineers. Function will take over form. Making a vehicle is again going to become a matter of passion for many, just like it was in the '50s - '70s. In my eyes, the transition to EVs is going to bring much more on the table than promote BEVs. It's going to revive the traditional of car making even among mass market & small scale manufacturers.

Last edited by Big Smoke : 13th August 2021 at 17:40.
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Old 13th August 2021, 18:18   #4
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Default Re: EV shift brings job losses in Germany & Japan

There is surely loss in “mechanical department” of powertrain, but a lot of usual jobs of suspension engineers, HVAC, and designers still exists.

There have been multitude of major tech shifts in our world, which fundamentally changed the dynamics and employment scene. Horse stable owners who mated and sold horses also faced the same 120y ago. Steam loco faced the same against diesel loco 60y ago. Soon the electric loco (and car) will take it over again.

That said, a lot of untapped potential lies in every major tech shift. This is just the surface. People said computers would make people obsolete.

Guess what? Now we have whole companies designing chips for the same computer (AMD), other company manufacturing them (TSMC), and another assembling the computer (HP) and again, in the end, a person working on the said computer.
That’s just chips. Imagine the whole ecosystem behind getting the laptop to your table. Way more jobs than that computer ever took away.

Lots of chemical and electrical/electronics jobs waiting to be expanded. Same for software for cars — which is getting to the forefront very rapidly. Software is something you just cannot dissociate with an EV. Gone are days when a basic radio and infotainment screen are acceptable.

Today it’s android auto and CarPlay, but to be honest, who doesn’t envy the ability of Tesla’s to allow fancy iPad on dash? It’s not possible to do so in refined manner with the kind of investment companies have in software right now. VW faced acute software issues on ID3 and 4.

Another field within software, will be self driving. As more and more companies try to enter and crack this race, a lot of software jobs are waiting to be created.

Batteries are going to follow the same as chips. (Tesla has their own battery “formula” or “recipe”, which ultimately, is actually manufactured by Panasonic)

The actual loss in jobs is going to be the assembly line. Just look at how many robots are being employed at something like a GigaFactory or BYD factory.
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Old 14th August 2021, 18:09   #5
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Default Re: EV shift brings job losses in Germany & Japan

I am sure that the Chinese are able to reap better economic returns at the cost of these job losses. It is high time for people to stop being so deluded by the common delude of deception against fossil fuels while turning a blind eye to the biggest polluting country in the world which is China.

With their global monopoly in the supply of lithium batteries they are delivering their coup de gras with aplomb by making people chant EV.

Last edited by COMMUTER : 14th August 2021 at 18:11.
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Old 14th August 2021, 18:20   #6
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Default Re: EV shift brings job losses in Germany & Japan

Actually a point to ponder upon. Not only this shift to EV, but automation going across every field, be it manufacturing or services like banking, coding, etc. will bring huge number of job cuts. Artificial intelligence and automation together can and do replace batches of humans by one system. In the long run, will we have enough consumers to spend on the services taken over by such systems (since consumers will have no jobs!). I’m not sure if there will be.
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Old 14th August 2021, 22:40   #7
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Default Re: EV shift brings job losses in Germany & Japan

EV's are not a conspiracy by the Chinese.

1) This thought process assumes that Europeans, Americans are stupid enough to fall for the Chinese ploy to ban ICE cars by 2030-2035.

2) Chile, Australia are the largest producers of lithium, not China. China is not stopping you from buying lithium from these countries and processing them in your country, in fact Australia will be happy to sell more lithium to India than selling to China.

3) EVs and Renewables have democratized the resources, unlike the fossil fuels where the wealth is concentrated in few countries, every country has the potential to make their own batteries and energy, Europe and US are already doing. Yes we have an option to stay stupid and depend on imports from China and say these Chinese are intelligent than us.

4) What can anyone do with Chinese, ask them to sign some climate agreement, request them to comply, the world has very little leverage on the CCP. How many said we should have a choice to buy Chinese cars if they are good enough for them, while we are having border tensions and our soldiers are dying. The CCP very well knows democratic countries cannot stop their own people from buying Chinese goods.

5) While China is one of the biggest polluter, it is also moving faster towards EVs and renewables, you can see their EV sales and new solar and wind projects. You say what about pollution from China and you also say EVs are a conspiracy by China, are they moving faster on EVs and Renewables or not?

6) Climate Change is real, the latest fires in Turkey, Brazil, California, record hot weathers in UK, Canada, floods in China, Western Europe have shown what we have to endure every year. Hope this time Kerala, Chennai, Mumbai are spared. The latest IPCC report is not a conspiracy by the Chinese.

7) Latest Tesla impact report showed that 921kwh worth of battery materials can be recycled from 1000kwh worth of battery materials from old batteries.I believe lithium will never be a long term wealth creator for any country like Oil.

It's not the time for whataboutism, Chinese are moving faster than many countries in EVs and renewables. India has 2 options, either move faster on EVs and renewables create jobs and industry of their own OR sit and relax, talk about lithium conspiracies, tell everyone as being a poor country for ever our per capita emissions are less and we have right to pollute.

Automation is happening faster in all industries, lucky for the Chinese their population is decreasing when automation is increasing. Meanwhile, our maid says govt officials visited their village last week and asked women to have more babies or their ration will be stopped.

Before someone accuses me, I very well understand EV cars are not solution for all the pollution in the world, overweight people, Shipping emission's, agricultural & food industry emissions.

Last edited by SKC-auto : 14th August 2021 at 22:49.
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Old 14th August 2021, 23:42   #8
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Default Re: EV shift brings job losses in Germany & Japan

Fossil fuels powered mobility have to go. I'm a big diesel cars addict, but I could already feel the driving experience is becoming archaic while I imagine the travel in an EV like MG ZS. Almost negligible NVH and zilch pollution will increase the travel pleasure multifods, in addition to the instant torque and a well calibrated steering unit.

Lithium based technology may not be the future but it will be a step to move to something better like Nitrogen based tech, etc. Of course, EV could become mainstream and primary mode of transport for at least two decades.

Mechanical engineering jobs in Mobility industry will crash to the point of no return. Semiconductor tech will replace mechanical engineering jobs, as the world gears towards more technology adoption and simplified communication.

Mother earth will get to breathe as the fossil fuels fade into the horizon.

Hats off to Elon Musk for single handedly bringing the world to its feet to act on this transition! Looking forward to the world with no exhaust fumes and I could drive with the windows down and feel the breeze.

Last edited by CliffHanger : 14th August 2021 at 23:46.
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Old 15th August 2021, 00:20   #9
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Default Re: EV shift brings job losses in Germany & Japan

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....I could drive with the windows down and feel the breeze...
Not until rampant crop burning, forest fires and "Thermal" power stations...

-BJ
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Old 15th August 2021, 01:41   #10
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2) Chile, Australia are the largest producers of lithium, not China. China is not stopping you from buying lithium from these countries and processing them in your country, in fact Australia will be happy to sell more lithium to India than selling to China.
China is the biggest supplier of lithium batteries. Link-1

As far as the Americans being stupid,they went under lockdown citing covid but were welcoming rioting in the streets inspite that, so they are not the brightest of the lot. Europeans, they have their
horrible quirks too. For example, the dutch doctors have started prescribing poison to healthy young people as a remedy for some vague 'disease'. Link - 2


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Not until rampant crop burning, forest fires and "Thermal" power stations...

-BJ
We must add to that the massive pollution caused by the container ships. It is said the a single container ship causes the amount of pollution similar to 50 MILLION cars. Link - 3Why not ban that first and start going back to wooden boats with sails, like greenpeace does?

First they tried bluffing that the fossil fuel sources are getting dried up to forward EVs. When that ploy failed, they are using the harms of corruption in food sources to brand the fuels as the causal factors of cancer and diabetes. They have deftly deceived people from knowing about insulin resistance which is the main causal factor for most of those diseases too.

They are still unable to answer the basic question of the pollution involved in the manufacturing process of battery cars either.

Last edited by COMMUTER : 15th August 2021 at 01:46.
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Old 15th August 2021, 10:08   #11
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China is the biggest supplier of lithium batteries. Link-1

As far as the Americans being stupid,they went under lockdown citing covid but were welcoming rioting in the streets inspite that, so they are not the brightest of the lot. Europeans, they have their
horrible quirks too. For example, the dutch doctors have started prescribing poison to healthy young people as a remedy for some vague 'disease'. Link - 2
I am not saying they are all intelligent, I do not believe they are all stupid either, atleast not that stupid to spend billions of dollars to build new industries. Don't know why you are sharing some anecdotal evidence, if you search the internet you will find similar stories everywhere.

The rioting in the streets, do you mean the Capitol hill rioters, they are supporters of a political party which do not believe in Masks, vaccines, hate EVs, they do believe EVs are a conspiracy by chinese, agreed they are not the intelligent ones.

I have been following EVs for last 5 years, I understand they are largest lithium battery makers, they have built their industries, while we are caught napping, now we start conspiracy theories. No one is stopping us from building our own factories, Europe and US are building their factories and in an year or two they do not need chinese batteries.

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First they tried bluffing that the fossil fuel sources are getting dried up to forward EVs. When that ploy failed, they are using the harms of corruption in food sources to brand the fuels as the causal factors of cancer and diabetes. They have deftly deceived people from knowing about insulin resistance which is the main causal factor for most of those diseases too.

They are still unable to answer the basic question of the pollution involved in the manufacturing process of battery cars either.
I do not know who is this "they", is it the Chinese, Americans, Green peace?

Tesla's recent impact report says their cars will be greener to run than ICE cars after 8500kms, which also includes battery making, their report claims they are sourcing key materials ethically, they can recycle 92% of the battery materials with current technology. BTW..Other EV and battery makers are not far behind.

Do you have any impact reports for ICE cars, or the petrol you just filled. Can we know how ethically does the oil extracted from Nigeria, Iraq etc.

Please check the IPCC report, if you say it's a conspiracy, I have nothing more to debate.
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Old 15th August 2021, 11:55   #12
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China is the biggest supplier of lithium batteries. Link-1
Well its entirely different to saying they are the largest lithium producer. But they are the largest renewable energy producer in the world already, two times more than the next best, the USA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_China

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As far as the Americans being stupid,they went under lockdown citing covid but were welcoming rioting in the streets inspite that, so they are not the brightest of the lot.
I get the gist that you are hinting towards George Floyd protests in which case how did you deduce that all of them are stupid? Is that why they are a technical powerhouse and the biggest economy in the world?

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Europeans, they have their
horrible quirks too. For example, the dutch doctors have started prescribing poison to healthy young people as a remedy for some vague 'disease'. Link - 2
I have gone through the article and you are way over the top here. Its like saying doctors around the world are suggesting sulphuric acid as a medicine when its just sulfates in a medicine! The central question in the article is Voluntary Euthanasia which is legal in Netherlands. Again, nordic European countries are some of the most civilised and sophisticated races on the planet. I am sure they have enough grey matter.


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We must add to that the massive pollution caused by the container ships. It is said the a single container ship causes the amount of pollution similar to 50 MILLION cars. Link - 3Why not ban that first and start going back to wooden boats with sails, like greenpeace does?
Human being exhale CO2 as well. What next? Whataboutery never solved anything.

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First they tried bluffing that the fossil fuel sources are getting dried up to forward EVs. When that ploy failed, they are using the harms of corruption in food sources to brand the fuels as the causal factors of cancer and diabetes. They have deftly deceived people from knowing about insulin resistance which is the main causal factor for most of those diseases too.
Who is they here? One company pioneered the idea and now everyone else is following. So I ask again, who are they? And now you are a doctor too?

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They are still unable to answer the basic question of the pollution involved in the manufacturing process of battery cars either.
There is pollution even when you breathe. We can't magically stop all industrial activity and move to renewable's whole and sole. We need to make a start and then iterate on top.

Last edited by extreme_torque : 15th August 2021 at 11:58.
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Old 16th August 2021, 12:18   #13
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There is pollution even when you breathe. We can't magically stop all industrial activity and move to renewable's whole and sole. We need to make a start and then iterate on top.
We make a start by cutting down pollution, not just emission. We can't feign an attempt to reduce emission when we are actually aggravating the pollution by opting for a change that spikes the pollution via manufacturing processes. The degradation of the lithium batteries is far too rapid than an IC engine and are a colossal environmental disaster in the making.

The processes involved in electricity generation are also polluting. The manufacturing of photovoltaic cells and windmills are also highly polluting too. Even the infrastructure that is needed to be put in place for recycling, IF it happens to be put in place, will also add to pollution.

Furthermore, they(strategic powers that are behind this and other similar agenda ) too cited the low emission of their EVs alone when pushing their EV agenda and are now just spinning out reports just after people started raising valid issues with the agenda's efficacy in bringing down pollution.

We need to make this world a better place but must avoid imbibing the harmful, delusive, strategic and global propoganda of the communist corporate giants.

Last edited by COMMUTER : 16th August 2021 at 12:48.
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Old 16th August 2021, 13:16   #14
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We make a start by cutting down pollution, not just emission.
Cutting down emissions is exactly that, cutting down pollution.

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We can't feign an attempt to reduce emission when we are actually aggravating the pollution by opting for a change that spikes the pollution via manufacturing processes.
How do you think crude oil is extracted, refined and then distributed? Or the engine oil that needs regular replacement and disposal? Or brake dust unlike an electric car which isnt using brakes to slow down 99% of time? Or the fact that battery for an electric vehicle can be recycled almost completely and the valuable metals and minerals used over and over again, indefinitely? Can you recycle spent gasoline used throughout the life of a car?

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The degradation of the lithium batteries is far too rapid than an IC engine and are a colossal environmental disaster in the making.
Completely and utterly wrong.
"Real-world data showed that Tesla battery degradation was less than 10% after over 160,000 miles (257,500 km)"
https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla...n-replacement/

And now couple that with the fact that they can be recycled almost completely.

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The processes involved in electricity generation are also polluting. The manufacturing of photovoltaic cells and windmills are also highly polluting too. Even the infrastructure that is needed to be put in place for recycling, IF it happens to be put in place, will also add to pollution.
And renewable energy is a moving target each day with more and more energy being generated via renewable sources. Most Tesla owners I know also have a roof top solar installed and practically drive for free including sending clean energy to the grid.

Pollution is not a zero sum game. There will never be zero pollution.

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Furthermore, they(strategic powers that are behind this and other similar agenda ) too cited the low emission of their EVs alone when pushing their EV agenda and are now just spinning out reports just after people started raising valid issues with the agenda's efficacy in bringing down pollution.
Take Tesla out of the equation and we wont have the industry moving towards BEV's like it is today. Is a 10 year old startup the strategic power? You mean a territorial country like China, Europe, a continent with almost no military, a heavily industrialised nation like Japan and the most powerful and technically advanced country on the planet USA somehow agreed to give Tesla the so called "strategic power".

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We need to make this world a better place but must avoid imbibing the harmful, delusive, strategic and global propoganda of the communist corporate giants.
From strategic powers to combating pollution to BEV's not being green enough to now political ideologies. You need to make up your mind.

And this is absolute GOLD "global propoganda of the communist corporate giants."

Last edited by extreme_torque : 16th August 2021 at 13:34.
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Old 16th August 2021, 13:49   #15
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Tesla is nowhere in the push for EVs to replace the IC engines completely and make the whole world greener. They are a niche and there is no way they will survive the real automobile market. They get away with their battery issues by hyping up the price and then appearing as if providing their batteries at throwaway prices. In reality, an EV is a disposable item with the battery replacement costs nudging or surpassing the vehicle cost.

Last edited by COMMUTER : 16th August 2021 at 13:59.
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