[sri_tesla]

Here are some of the countries and their EV (BEV + PHEV) adoption rates:

Table:


Chart:


Observations:

• 2021 numbers are only till August. September and last quarter EV sales tend to be much higher historically. So, the final percentage for 2021 will be even higher.

• In Major European markets like Germany, UK, and France, it just took 3 years to reach 15 to 25% market share from just 3%.

• China EV market is exploding this year with more and more models available from both traditional automakers and startups.

• European adoption helped by regulations in 2020 but it continues to grow rapidly in 2021 mainly due to the broader availability of different models.

• Another interesting aspect is, PHEV sales started to stagnate for the last few months while BEV sales continued to grow. This trend will continue in the future and will only accelerate from here onwards.

• US market is dominated by Tesla and the entire market is driven by them only. The number of EV models is limited in the US. It will change in the next 2-3 years as other companies are starting to expand their production capacities. Even Tesla will also have another factory coming online later this year, catering to North America.

Here are my estimations for major car markets:

• Germany, UK, France, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Denmark: 80% to 90% by 2025.

• China: 50% by 2024, 90% by 2026/27.

• USA: 50% by 2025. 90% share by 2028.

• India:
  2 wheelers: 50% to 60% by 2025 and 90% by 2027.
  Cars: 20% to 30% by 2025 and 90% by 2030.

[narayans80]

France definitely started before 2014. I saw Paris filled with small EVs and EV chargers all over downtown streets. Not sure if a value shows up only if the percentage can be rounded to the next integer.

50-60% adoption for 2-wheelers sounds like a day dream. I'll be surprised to see 10% by 2025, even this is very very optimistic.

Everyday I see someone pushing or leg-towing their 2-wheeler because they ran out of fuel, and these are on modern 2-wheelers that have fuel level indicators.

The portfolio is very slow, especially in cars. Tatas are the only OEM that are aggressive, everyone else is waiting and watching.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

Here are my estimations for major car markets:

• Germany, UK, France, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Denmark: 80% to 90% by 2025.

• China: 50% by 2024, 90% by 2026/27.

• USA: 50% by 2025. 90% share by 2028.

• India:
  2 wheelers: 50% to 60% by 2025 and 90% by 2027.
  Cars: 20% to 30% by 2025 and 90% by 2030.

I feel US reaching 50% by 2025 is difficult as they have a huge population who still deny climate change, for them buying an EV is falling for a huge unknown conspiracy.

India 2W sales reaching 50% by 2025 rests on the shoulders of OLA, people in rural areas move to 2W EVs faster than urban areas as they do not face basement charging issues, a minimum of 3 hrs power supply is what is needed for next day usage.

Also at 20p/km running costs compared to 2.5₹/km for ICE 2W, we see less people dragging their 2W as suggested above.

Similarly, 20% EV sales by 2025 rests on the shoulders of Tata motors, chinese companies and again OLA. Sadly I still do not see massive battery factories announced in India.

[white_wolf]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

Here are my estimations for major car markets:

• Germany, UK, France, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Denmark: 80% to 90% by 2025.

• China: 50% by 2024, 90% by 2026/27.

• USA: 50% by 2025. 90% share by 2028.

• India:
  2 wheelers: 50% to 60% by 2025 and 90% by 2027.
  Cars: 20% to 30% by 2025 and 90% by 2030.

Great data points in the post and this really shows that how far India is from "actual" EV revolution irrespective of all the hype around it so far.

For the Indian EV adoption, the EV 2W sales expected this year is approx 1 Lakh units. For this to reach 80-85 Lakh units (50-60% levels) in next 4 years, this would require a CAGR of approx 200% over the next 4 years!! Given that none of the major manufacturers in two wheelers have proper range of products in EVs this looks highly improbable. Don't know if any industry had such mass adoption in such short span. Smartphone industry comes to mind but even then it was spread over 7-8 years (2008 - 2015 probably) with multiple OEMs coming out with range of products flooding the market.

IMO, the best case scenario for EV 2W can be approx 10% of the market (15-20 Lakh units) and even this requires 100% CAGR over 4 years. Also, EV 2Ws would be driven by Urban markets rather than rural ones. RWA issues i think will be resolved quickly enough and cities would have more closely packed charging points as compared to rural area making it slight easier for EV 2W adoption.

Four wheeler adoption can also be at about 7-8% in 3-4 years (approx 3 lakh units annually) and driven mostly by early adopters.

Looking at above countries trend, its going to be the duration from 2025 - 2030 where we hit the tipping point for mass adoption at large scale where every second 2W sold is electric and maybe every fourth 4W to be electric.

[lsjey]

In India, I think the EV two-wheeler manufacturers are in for a nasty surprise. India doesn't consume like the developed countries. I'm giving the example of the TVS scooty that we own, but most two-wheelers ownerships that I know of is similar.

1. We have a 15+ year old TVS scooty, and it has done around 25K KMs. This is usually driven with-in a few KMs radius of our home.
2. My wife's service mantra is this: Take the Scooty to service centre only when it breaks down. Usually the FNG-TVS mechanic will pick up the vehicle from home, service it and bring it home. It has never costed more than 1000 - 2000 Rupees.
3. Imagine if it had been a EV: We would have had to change the battery pack at least once.

Indians need two-wheelers which are like fill-it-shut-it-and-forget-it and just drive types.

IMO, after the initial euphoria is over for the EVs, the mass market will not take too kindly to the EVs.

Regards,
lsjey

[Mafia]

Originally Posted by lsjey

1. We have a 15+ year old TVS scooty, and it has done around 25K KMs. This is usually driven with-in a few KMs radius of our home.
2. My wife's service mantra is this: Take the Scooty to service centre only when it breaks down. Usually the FNG-TVS mechanic will pick up the vehicle from home, service it and bring it home. It has never costed more than 1000 - 2000 Rupees.

This is a similar case for us too. We have a Bajaj Wave from 2005 till now. It has done 30k km.

I am not confident of taking it to places more than 7-8 kms away. The breaks are poor. The light is low. But it is used at least 4-5 times a week for short errands in the daytime.

If I buy an electric scooter, I will be using it for longer rides instead of the car whenever I am going alone. Easily cover 600 to 800 kms in a month.

The high initial cost means those with short errands around their home will not benefit from buying an electric scooter. They have to continue with the IC scooters.

In the next 10 years, if we reach a 30 to 35% market share for EV's, it is a phenomenal achievement.

By then the initial cost of EV's will be lower and the current problems and limitations of EV's will no longer be valid and the adaptation will be faster

[Rajeevraj]

I personally think EV adoption in India will take much longer. To reach even 25-30%, based on an average sales of 300,000 a month, that would mean 90-100k EV's a month. For that to happen, we need to have at least 2-3 Top 10 blockbuster models that can pull in 10k units a month. The top brands Maruti and Hyundai/Kia don't seem very interested in the EV space and I don't think have a strong roadmap defined yet. From the rest, only Tata is focusing on EV's and have some solid plans. Rest of them are struggling to sell anything now a days and even if they come out with EV's, cannot be high volume players.

I think we are a very conservative automotive market and resistant to too much change-especially in the volume segments- so EV's are a long way away.

May I be proved wrong.

[SRT_Dwarka]

Charging stations coming up fast. 18 Charging stations at ~1 per 100 km, should be good enough to confidently drive up there

https://www.businesstoday.in/auto/st...526-2021-10-05

[sumeethaldankar]

Many people in India who own cars do not have a proper parking slot and park on the road. An EV will need to come with parking space and a dedicated charging point where the owner can leave the vehicle getting charged over the time.

IMHO most EV's atleast cars will be bought by people who will have the below or either one of the two points.

1. A decent parking where the car can be plugged in.
2. A second liquid fueled car for longer drives.

Atleast till when super fast charging comes in where a car can gets fully or close to fully charged in ~ 15 mins a common average buyer may not consider one.

[aargee]

I'll buy an EV only if one or more of the below criteria are met...
1. The ownership cost of EV is significantly lower than fossil fueled vehicles in a span of 4 years timeframe
2. Owning a EV's become more practical than fossil fueled vehicles
3. Govt forces everyone to use EV going forward

[ValarMorghulis]

Union Minister for Road Transport & Highways Nitin Gadkari probably knows something which perhaps even Elon Musk doesn't.

Tesla car will be ‘sasti’ and cost Rs 35 lakh.

Tesla is not that expensive anymore, said Gadkari, while speaking at the Game Changers: Climate Action session at the India Today Conclave 2021 on Friday. “I asked Tesla officials not to make the car in China and sell it in India. It is something I had in my mind and I told them. Come to India, make it here, sell it here, and export from here. The government will provide you all the help and support you need,” he said.

Link

[sri_tesla]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

• India:
  2 wheelers: 50% to 60% by 2025 and 90% by 2027.
  Cars: 20% to 30% by 2025 and 90% by 2030.

I know my estimations may seem overly optimistic but here are the reasons why I feel it's achievable especially for 2 wheelers:

• Ola Electric is setting up a huge factory with a capacity of 10 million per annum. They already announced their first model at a competitive price. They are also developing motorcycles and an even more affordable scooter as per official information.

• TVS is investing Rs 1,000 crores in their EV division and developing multiple models (2 and 3 wheelers) in the range of 5-25KW, all of which will be in the market within 24 months. These models will cover commuter space, delivery market, premium scooters, high-performance sporty motorcycles. The company’s EV range will be parallel to the current petrol-powered range.

• Hero Electric (not Hero Motocorp) to increase the capacity to 5 lakh units by end of FY22 and to increase 1 million more capacity each year from thereon. To have 5 million capacity by FY26.

• Ather Energy to have a production capacity of 3 lakh units by FY 2023 and developing more affordable scooters and bikes.

• Very good support from Central and state governments with subsidies, road tax waivers, and low GST.

• PLI scheme for automobile companies developing EVs. Separate PLI scheme for battery cell makers.

• 2 wheeler EV development is much lesser capital intensive compared to cars and development also can be much faster. Production expansion also can be much faster.

• Existng EV 2 wheelers (Ather 450x, Bajaj Chetak, TVS iQube, Ola S1/S1 Pro) can cover 90% of the customer needs. For the majority of the people charging twice or thrice a week is enough.

• Competition, battery price reductions, supply chain development will bring the EV prices down and will accelerate the adoption.

• Ever increasing petrol prices. Running costs of EV 2 wheeler can be as low as 1/8th of petrol scooter. Petrol costs themselves can almost cover EMI.

• Once the EV market share reaches 15 to 20%, traditional companies like Hero, Bajaj, Honda, etc... will be forced to bring EV 2 wheelers. It will accelerate the adoption even more.

[DigitalOne]

I am hugely optimistic on the EV 2-Wheeler adoption in India, but not so much on the 4W adoption.

If we look holistically at what is happening in our cities, metro infrastructure is being built a good pace; of course we want the metro running yesterday, but look at it from a 2025 perspective. Self-driven EV 2W (like Bounce, or Vogo) or EV 2W bike-taxis solve the last mile problem efficiently.

Karnataka government recently allowed bike taxis but these have to be EVs only. (Predictably, the entrenched Auto/Ola/Uber/BMTC lobby is opposing this move.)

If a range of 100kms becomes reliable, then delivery cos like Swiggy will also start mass adoption. All the delivery co needs to do is to rent out a basement per locality to charge the vehicles, where delivery executives can switch vehicles.

All this will happen in the next 4 years. I see Ola's EV 2W production as a game-changing event, and effects will be seen far into the future.

[Electromotive]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

• India:
  2 wheelers: 50% to 60% by 2025 and 90% by 2027.
  Cars: 20% to 30% by 2025 and 90% by 2030.

India scenario might be a bit optimistic. We also don't know how Li batteries will fare in our hot climate in the long run.

Only the enthusiasts will be the early adopters leading to an initial spike, then sales will plateau for 3-5 years and then start rising again but this time the momentum will continue as the market starts to transition completely to EV. So, around 2030s is when EVs will start dominating.

I think adoption of electric cars (in the 10-20 lakhs bracket) will be faster than electric two wheelers, as more people become first time car buyers.

What we will probably see going forward is sales of new ICE scooters being hammered. Each electric scooter sold takes away a sale from the ICE segment. Those upgrading will also be selling off their old ICE scooters, this will in turn flood the used market making used ICE scooters affordable for low income households, further reducing demand for new ICE scooters.

[Porcupine]

EV adoption in India will depend more on the provisions of the infrastructure than the availability of EV products. India as a market is a late adopter, and it's very well documented that our infrastructure is vastly underdeveloped to support EVs. We have expansive lengths of highway systems that would need charging points among the millions of other roads, which will make it near impossible to accomplish 20-30% adoption in the next 3.5 years.