[AulusGabinius]

Absolutely agree with all of these points. As a materials engineer who does understand battery chemistry well enough to judge, BEVs are just not the current solution. Lithium supply chains aside, cobalt is necessary because lithium-polymer batteries are insanely expensive because of the polymer, which is easily three to four times the price of cobalt. Not to mention, if even the majority of BEVs were plugged to charge at a time, the grid would never sustain the load. For any kind of grid-based charging system to work, the whole grid needs to be changed. I just don't see that happening very soon. For the moment I would pick a hybrid over an EV in heartbeat, and twenty years down the line I've no doubt whatsoever that a better solution will appear.

[HappyRider]

I keep hearing this Grid doesn't support but why do people don't consider the reduction of electricity requirements due to reduction in refining processes. Doesn't oil refining consuming huge electricity in itself?

[kosjam]

Originally Posted by AulusGabinius

A, BEVs are just not the current solution. Lithium supply chains aside, cobalt is necessary because lithium-polymer batteries are insanely expensive because of the polymer, which is easily three to four times the price of cobalt.

A small correction to your post I would like to make. You are mistaken. BEVs ARE the best solution (as of now), what you probably mean is that batteries in their current form are not the best solution. To that I would say that there are a lot of promising studies going on which are looking at alternatives to lithium ion batteries.

Secondly,

Originally Posted by AulusGabinius

Not to mention, if even the majority of BEVs were plugged to charge at a time, the grid would never sustain the load. For any kind of grid-based charging system to work, the whole grid needs to be changed. I just don't see that happening very soon.

This is just plain fear mongering. I had done a back of the envelope calculation regarding the same in another thread, the link which I am posting below, and from that it was clear that the increase in load factor was a measly 0.18% (it was pointed out by someone else that I had gotten my decimal point wrong)

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/elect...ml#post5411923

[AulusGabinius]

Originally Posted by kosjam

A small correction to your post I would like to make. You are mistaken. BEVs ARE the best solution (as of now), what you probably mean is that batteries in their current form are not the best solution. To that I would say that there are a lot of promising studies going on which are looking at alternatives to lithium ion batteries.

To this point, to be very specific, lithium batteries aren't. Sodium sulfur or something similar might be the solution down the road, but right now? Lithium is a bit too precious IMHO to use so much in one vehicle. Either way, so far only an aluminium-air flow battery seems the greatest solution to me. But then, hydrogen FCs are years ahead of flow batteries too, and they're just as convenient as petrol.

Originally Posted by kosjam

This is just plain fear mongering. I had done a back of the envelope calculation regarding the same in another thread, the link which I am posting below, and from that it was clear that the increase in load factor was a measly 0.18% (it was pointed out by someone else that I had gotten my decimal point wrong)

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/elect...ml#post5411923

That is a gross oversimplification. One lakh EVs are much too few to be a real solution. In any case, where are they located? The power must be concentrated to already loaded regions like cities, where load shedding is already a concern. So it's more like 330MW for a single city, or maybe over two or three cities. Not to mention that India's grids are not unified. Most states run on individual grids, run by different companies. So the load amount may be small, but it will be highly concentrated in very small areas of distribution. Next up is the source. Dirty power plants is most likely, especially if the cars charge at night. Wind isn't exactly reliable without storage, which means - guess what? - yet more lithium. Sure, most people sleep at night, but running a few lights and a car is different. Not to mention fridges run all the time. So overall, I don't think lithium or most BEVs are the solution in the long run.

[SKC-auto]

My grandparents used to live in one of the remote villages in Andhra, I still remember few images of me sleeping with my grandfather when I visited them in the open skies infront of our houses. Usually there will be no power at night or power was distributed for few hours in a day, then the Indian population was less than 85crores(now 140crores) I believe.

There were no star hotels, no IT industry, no data centers, trains running on diesel, no fancy airports back then, I believe the power generation then was less than 20% of what we are generating today.

I don't have any hard data but our power generation would have increased 5x in last 30 years, with Solar and Wind power at such low prices India would very very easily increase power generation by 20-30% in the next 10years. We are aiming for 300GW solar energy target for 2030.

Lack of power generation is just non sense, similarly lack of Lithium is another nonsense, there is plenty of Lithium and new mines and mining are opened every year as more Lithium is required.

How lithium production is increasing:

[kosjam]

Originally Posted by AulusGabinius

To this point, to be very specific, lithium batteries aren't. Sodium sulfur or something similar might be the solution down the road, but right now? Lithium is a bit too precious IMHO to use so much in one vehicle. Either way, so far only an aluminium-air flow battery seems the greatest solution to me. But then, hydrogen FCs are years ahead of flow batteries too, and they're just as convenient as petrol.

I already mentioned in my previous post that lithium ion isn't the best battery tech and alternatives are being studied. I agree that Aluminium air is currently the best bet, but till they find a way to recharge these batteries, it is not a viable option for mainstreaming.
Looking at hydrogen FCs, if one looks only at the Fuel Cell, then it might seem very attractive as an option, but the sheer logistics of handling, transporting and using hydrogen make it completely unviable as a fuel source of the future. Maybe for fixed installations and large operators such as train locomotives or trunk route trucking it could be viable but definitely not for retail customers.

Originally Posted by AulusGabinius

That is a gross oversimplification. One lakh EVs are much too few to be a real solution. In any case, where are they located? The power must be concentrated to already loaded regions like cities, where load shedding is already a concern. So it's more like 330MW for a single city, or maybe over two or three cities. Not to mention that India's grids are not unified. Most states run on individual grids, run by different companies. So the load amount may be small, but it will be highly concentrated in very small areas of distribution. Next up is the source. Dirty power plants is most likely, especially if the cars charge at night. Wind isn't exactly reliable without storage, which means - guess what? - yet more lithium. Sure, most people sleep at night, but running a few lights and a car is different. Not to mention fridges run all the time. So overall, I don't think lithium or most BEVs are the solution in the long run.

The point I was making was in the Tiago EV thread, and responding to a specific question. But a basic generalization does apply and is relevant. The very scenario I was taking was an extreme one, (1 lakh EVs plugging in, at 0% SOC at the very same time) and even in that scenario, the figures aren't too scary, real world scenario is much better than that. (Most vehicles being charged are not at 0% SoC and usual charge times are not the same as peak load timings, and battery charging power consumed reduces with increase of SoC) It is easily scalable to account for even 10 lakh EVs in the next 5-7 years.

Regarding national grid, I don't know what you mean by it not being unified, considering the very name, NATIONAL GRID. The transfer of energy on the grids has its own exchange, where state discoms buy and sell power.
Secondly, the "dirty" power grid is a misnomer, even coal plants produce electricity at efficiencies wayy higher than your average ICE car, by a factor of 2 at the very least. Just by using a "dirty" coal fired plant, one can become more efficient. In addition to that, according to latest reports, over 40% of India's energy is today clean, and this number is only improving y-o-y.

And finally, coming to storage, if you have been following the news, it should not come as a surprise that GoI is not investing in lithium based energy storage, but looking at other alternatives, pumped storage being one of them. In fact the budget should have an allocation specifically for this to encourage energy storage solution exploration.

[Nikhil Beke]

I think it would be useful to go through these two very well-researched and popular videos pertinent to the discussion so far. (Disclaimer: Big fan of this YouTube channel )
1.

https://youtu.be/6RhtiPefVzM

2.

https://youtu.be/7dfyG6FXsUU

[AulusGabinius]

Originally Posted by kosjam

I already mentioned in my previous post that lithium ion isn't the best battery tech and alternatives are being studied. I agree that Aluminium air is currently the best bet, but till they find a way to recharge these batteries, it is not a viable option for mainstreaming.

Looking at hydrogen FCs, if one looks only at the Fuel Cell, then it might seem very attractive as an option, but the sheer logistics of handling, transporting and using hydrogen make it completely unviable as a fuel source of the future. Maybe for fixed installations and large operators such as train locomotives or trunk route trucking it could be viable but definitely not for retail customers.

The point I was making was in the Tiago EV thread, and responding to a specific question. But a basic generalization does apply and is relevant. The very scenario I was taking was an extreme one, (1 lakh EVs plugging in, at 0% SOC at the very same time) and even in that scenario, the figures aren't too scary, real world scenario is much better than that. (Most vehicles being charged are not at 0% SoC and usual charge times are not the same as peak load timings, and battery charging power consumed reduces with increase of SoC) It is easily scalable to account for even 10 lakh EVs in the next 5-7 years.

Regarding national grid, I don't know what you mean by it not being unified, considering the very name, NATIONAL GRID. The transfer of energy on the grids has its own exchange, where state discoms buy and sell power.
Secondly, the "dirty" power grid is a misnomer, even coal plants produce electricity at efficiencies wayy higher than your average ICE car, by a factor of 2 at the very least. Just by using a "dirty" coal fired plant, one can become more efficient. In addition to that, according to latest reports, over 40% of India's energy is today clean, and this number is only improving y-o-y.

And finally, coming to storage, if you have been following the news, it should not come as a surprise that GoI is not investing in lithium based energy storage, but looking at other alternatives, pumped storage being one of them. In fact the budget should have an allocation specifically for this to encourage energy storage solution exploration.

About using hydrogen as a fuel, sure that could be a hurdle, but certainly not an insurmountable one. We have hydrogen fuelling systems operational in the first world, and it won't be long before India does too. Not to mention that we have experience handling CNG, which is definitely applicable, so in India and others with that, it will be easier for sure.

About charging EVs, the statistics I've seen about our power grids are definitely discouraging, especially the load shedding figures, a out their ability to handle anything better than what is there right now, with capacity being built fairly slowly. Second, of course nobody would charge from 0% to 100% every time, but I think Europe and California have given some indication of what happens when too many EVs charge at the same time. Grid density, power load at specific times, number of connections all make a pretty significant difference in load and capacity. Just compare Maharashtra with Andhra Pradesh, for instance. Not to mention it's not about peak load times, it's about the constant load being generated, and a higher number of peak or close to peak times.

About dirty plants, they use coal at 60% efficiency at best, that is if the combined cycle is actually operating, or even worse, lignite. 35% efficiency petrol burning is much cleaner than 60% coal. We don't use natural gas either. So I'd still take petrol over burning coal. We'll keep improving with clean energy, but we'll get there when we get there. Let's wait and watch. The national grid as well is more of a network of different grids who have different capacities and different transmission losses. They can trade power, sure, but their specs are different. So we'll see. The oldest ones will need upgrading first.

Lastly, about storage, pumping storage etc are stopgaps subject to storage loss; essentially the clock ticks really quickly. So far chemical storage of some sort seems really promising, but again, too soon to say.

But well, we'll be here in the next two decades, so we'll see!

[AulusGabinius]

Originally Posted by Nikhil Beke

I think it would be useful to go through these two very well-researched and popular videos pertinent to the discussion so far. (Disclaimer: Big fan of this YouTube channel

I'm a huge fan of Engineering Explained too, thanks for sharing! As engineers our factor of safety is usually a pessimistic one, so I usually find his takes way too optimistic. But the takeaways for me are:

1. His point on energy sources is totally valid. If you can run your car on renewable, more power to you.

2. Scaling an electric grid isn't as easy as he makes it sound. The 5X increase didn't happen just because people wanted AC, it was an era of massive growth everywhere. And the power came from coal, gas and nuclear. The time and investment needed is vast. No more nuclear, no more gas, no more coal, and all you're left with is ultra high altitude wind, which the US can tap from the Gulf Stream. India? We can use the monsoon, but rest of the year, no idea. Solar is an option for India for sure, but cost in the long term, i.e. half-century terms needs to be addressed. And overall, his method of distributing power consumption over time is so much work that I tend to believe people would spend on infrastructure to eliminate the different costings etc than charge their cars according to a fairly complicated time model. But again, we'll be here in two decades to see.

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

My grandparents used to live in one of the remote villages in Andhra, I still remember few images of me sleeping with my grandfather when I visited them in the open skies infront of our houses. Usually there will be no power at night or power was distributed for few hours in a day, then the Indian population was less than 85crores(now 140crores) I believe.

There were no star hotels, no IT industry, no data centers, trains running on diesel, no fancy airports back then, I believe the power generation then was less than 20% of what we are generating today.

I don't have any hard data but our power generation would have increased 5x in last 30 years, with Solar and Wind power at such low prices India would very very easily increase power generation by 20-30% in the next 10years. We are aiming for 300GW solar energy target for 2030.

Lack of power generation is just non sense, similarly lack of Lithium is another nonsense, there is plenty of Lithium and new mines and mining are opened every year as more Lithium is required.

How lithium production is increasing:
Attachment 2414374

The true cost of solar and wind is actually closer to Rs 10 per kWh, it's subsidised to 3-4 per kWh. It's a great option, but it's got a ways to go yet to be on par with fossil fuels. We could do 300 GW, it's about when and where. Not to mention that it needs land, which again is a largish question .

As to the lithium, it isn't just how much is there. It's a combination of who has it: mainly the Chinese and Australia, who refines it: the Chinese, and who uses it: the Chinese! They could only set this up because of the massive money dumping that their government does, to set up all this infrastructure. Lastly, transporting lithium around, and refining it also require vast, vast amounts of energy. Not to mention that it's a tad short-sighted to think that all mines could last forever, especially of a rarer element like lithium. That's not even counting the copper, aluminium and cobalt needed. Where's it coming from is important too.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by AulusGabinius

The true cost of solar and wind is actually closer to Rs 10 per kWh, it's subsidised to 3-4 per kWh. It's a great option, but it's got a ways to go yet to be on par with fossil fuels. We could do 300 GW, it's about when and where. Not to mention that it needs land, which again is a largish question .

As to the lithium, it isn't just how much is there. It's a combination of who has it: mainly the Chinese and Australia, who refines it: the Chinese, and who uses it: the Chinese! They could only set this up because of the massive money dumping that their government does, to set up all this infrastructure. Lastly, transporting lithium around, and refining it also require vast, vast amounts of energy. Not to mention that it's a tad short-sighted to think that all mines could last forever, especially of a rarer element like lithium. That's not even counting the copper, aluminium and cobalt needed. Where's it coming from is important too.

I guess you are far away from reality, where did you get this figure of ₹10/kwh, can you share the subsidies received by solar.

The question about lithium is
1. Is it a rare mineral? The answer is no, it is one of the most abundant minerals.

2. Can India buy lithium and refine? Yes we can buy and refine, US and other countries have already started doing. We give away all advantages to China, by delaying EVs instead of investing, and cry China took our jobs at the end.

3. Lithium needs transportation? EVs typically use <10kg of lithium for the lifetime of the car, less weight than one refuelling petrol. Petrol and Hydrogen too needs transportation, they don't magically appear at the fuel station.

4. Is lithium the only solution? May not be, all stationary storage will move to cheaper Sodium batteries or some flow batteries.

5. Where other metals come from? Ask about Aluminium from engine manufacturers, engines blocks are made of aluminium, you seem to be fine with copper consumption of FCEVs which are EVs, hybrids also have electric motors(typically 2 compared to 1 motor in most EVs). Cobalt is also used for refining oil and catalyst in FCEV, EVs like Nexon, MG ZS, Atto3 don't use Cobalt.

6. Platinum used in Hydrogen cars and electrolysis, to find out how rare it is just buy 10grams, for some reason hydrogen is the future.

If it comes to EVs you are setting them against higher standards, FCEVs and Hybrids given a pass just for attending the test. Have you ever considered FCEV needs 3x more electricity than EVs, have you ever considered petrol needs electricity for refining.

[The Rationalist]

I hope all those worried about mining is not using smartphones, televisions, smartwatches, air conditioners, refrigerators and what not. Also hope you guys are all living in mud houses or huts made of renewable substances. If not, please stop this rhetoric against electric vehicles. We are building houses using crushed rocks, iron, copper which is not coming up magically from the underground stores. The only way to save the earth will be to go back to live in forests, hope none of you are willing to do that. All most every modern amenity we use is causing damage to the environment. After reading the comments across threads, it looks like the world was a paradise till now and the EV’s will result in some catastrophic damage that human beings will have to migrate out of earth! Those who support EV’s is not forcing anyone to stop buying the ICE or Hydrogen cars. We have been enlightened enough.

I drive a petrol guzzler that returns 8 km/L and I don’t care a hoot about the environment to be honest. If I did, I wouldn’t be able to live now. Typing on my smartphone would have made me die of guilt thinking about an unprivileged child having to risk his life in an African mine to get the metals needed for my gadget.

[deep_bang]

If I were selling a class leading hybrid and a leader in that segment and have not a lot of plans on the EV side, I will obviously sell the idea of hybrids. What's so surprising about it?

You can always use facts to make your point either way. You can use facts to suggest that petrol is better than diesel and vice-versa.

Ultimately the government policies + public choices will decide what is going to happen. Not Toyota.

Speaking about renewable energy, India is already getting more then 40% of its energy from renewable sources. It's hard to ignore the energy security we get from this as well as the cost advantages we have.

So it's not a simple debate of what's best. The answer may be different for different countries/people. Goverment policies revolve around points like:
1. Our country's energy security policy
2. Cost of energy
3. Long term availability and security
4. Cost/Availability/Scalability to power our GDP goals
5. Cleanliness of the energy to contribute and help our climate goals
5. Risk of dependence on few companies powering a major part of the transport segment

Public Choices revolve around:
1. Cost per km
2. Initial cost
3. Fun to drive factor
4. Maintainance and resale value cost
5. Sense of contribution to a larger initiative(maybe climate, etc).

So, the answers may really be a combination of many technologies depending on where we stand on each of the about points.

[shankar.balan]

It is easy to say Toyota is merely marching to the beat of its own agenda.
However, i want to put out some general questions around this.
To me it seems the whole world is in the midst of an ill thought out and headlong rush towards EV’s.

Do we really think EV’s are so great for the environment?
Isn’t most of our electricity produced from coal?
How are we going to manage potential grid overload?
What is the interval at which batteries need to be replaced?
What is the cost of such replacement?
What are the measures taken for safe disposal of batteries?
Are we sure the chemicals won’t leach into the earth or sea and thus harm the planet and all of life?

[PreludeSH]

Cars going electric doesnt mean it will be how it is today. The batteries will change, the energy sources will change. EV drive trains themselves are not the issue.

In India, hope it does not become a personal responsibility to have our own sources. Using Solar/Wind power at home will double the amount of batteries we need. You cant hope your car to be at home charging during day time.

For businesses to use solar/wind would also mean the same if the grid itself is not upgraded.

[deep_bang]

Originally Posted by shankar.balan

It is easy to say Toyota is merely marching to the beat of its own agenda.
However, i want to put out some general questions around this.
To me it seems the whole world is in the midst of an ill thought out and headlong rush towards EV’s.

Do we really think EV’s are so great for the environment?
Isn’t most of our electricity produced from coal?
How are we going to manage potential grid overload?
What is the interval at which batteries need to be replaced?
What is the cost of such replacement?
What are the measures taken for safe disposal of batteries?
Are we sure the chemicals won’t leach into the earth or sea and thus harm the planet and all of life?

Your questions are valid. No one has all the answers yet. But let me put forward my thoughts.

Any new technology has its benefits as well as problems. Just because we don't have a way to recycle the batteries, we should not say we will not adopt a certain technology right? This whole model is evolving. As the situation comes where we start to dump batteries in a large scale there will be mandatory requirements to do that. Not everything will be done one day 1.

Over 40% of our energy needs are met by renewable sources. Further, India is mostly blessed by very good solar radiation which means that it's easy to scale electricity generation. I recently got a 3KW solar panel setup on my terrace and it generates enough to power my house as well as about a 100 extra units that I budgeted for my future EV.

So, generation will scale up as the need arises and remember it's way way cheaper than petrol/diesel and so there is a lot of motivation to generate own electricity or generate and sell electricity models.

Coming to distribution, we have a pretty decent distribution network already. If anything the problem could be pricing as it's too cheap (as it's discounted by discoms for basic usage at home) and that's why discoms don't have an incentive to maintain it as they are already losing money. However a good pricing model increasing the cost of electricity after a certain limit will help increase revenue of the discoms and then enable better infrastructure. Again - all of this can scale up slowly. We don't need all of the infra before buying the EVs. Distribution is really not a problem. Our agencies are very good and are upto it, in my humble opinion.

One challenge could be battery capacities at the grid level. Coal can be burnt anytime we need power. Solar/wind power is not like that. So there will be a time gap between generating and usage. We need more battery capacity to be able to better use the generated power. This is a worldwide challenge and as solutions come up, India also will benefit.

Our cars themselves live for 10 years. If the battery lasts for 10 years, and has saved the cost of petrol/diesel over 10 years, then why even worry about replacement cost. Of course we should talk about recycling cost to ensure they get recycled properly without leaching into the ground etc.

Overall, the concerns you have brought up are definitely real - I don't debate that. But I am of the view that these will get solved - and hopefully in good ways.