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Old 20th June 2024, 12:46   #1
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India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

The latest Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook by Bloomberg NEF, the research arm of Bloomberg Finance, indicates that despite a mixed near-term outlook in some markets, EV adoption is poised for continued growth globally, but adoption in India will trail other major economies.

India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040-screenshot-20240620-123205.png

EV sales:
Electric vehicle markets around the world are not all travelling in the same direction or at the same speed in 2024. Sales of EVs continue to rise globally, but some markets are experiencing a significant slowdown and many automakers have pushed back their EV targets. Progress varies by segment, with electric commercial vehicles set for another blistering year and segments like buses and two- and three-wheelers already reaching very high levels of electrification.

Passenger EV sales:
China still dominates the global EV market, but sales are rising quickly elsewhere too. Electric vehicles are no longer only a wealthy country phenomenon. Developing economies like Thailand, India, Turkey, Brazil and others are all experiencing record sales as more low-cost electric models are targeted at local buyers

India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040-screenshot-20240620-123458.png

India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040-screenshot-20240620-123604.png

Number of public charging stations
More and more charging points are being built, but each country will have its own optimal mix of home, workplace and public chargers.

India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040-screenshot-20240620-123732.png

Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.7 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.

India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040-screenshot-20240620-123847.png

Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising quickly. Growth in battery demand for EVs has slowed slightly in the last year, but demand for stationary storage applications is rising faster than ever. Manufacturing of battery cells and the production of key battery components – such as cathodes, anodes, separators and electrolytes – is concentrated in China.

India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040-screenshot-20240620-124003.png

Reaching net zero by 2050
Reaching 2050 net-zero targets will require swift progress on renewable generation and on adoption of zero-emission vehicles. The report includes a “Net Zero” scenario which investigates what a potential route to carbon neutrality looks like across all segments of road transport by 2050.

India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040-screenshot-20240620-124205.png

India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040-screenshot-20240620-124334.png

However, despite this strong growth trajectory, India's EV adoption is expected to lag the global average in the coming decades. The report suggests that India, along with Southeast Asia and Brazil, will still trail the worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040, even as these markets experience rapid growth in EV sales.

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Old 21st June 2024, 09:59   #2
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

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Originally Posted by volkman10 View Post

However, despite this strong growth trajectory, India's EV adoption is expected to lag the global average in the coming decades. The report suggests that India, along with Southeast Asia and Brazil, will still trail the worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040, even as these markets experience rapid growth in EV sales.

I think we may have multi-faceted growth towards EV's.
Our 2W and 3W will reach there first, and then the 4W other markets will crawl to the same target.
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Old 21st June 2024, 12:30   #3
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

A lot of automakers in India are launching new EVs in the coming years, but the problem is almost all of them, whether the BE range from Mahindra, Hyundai's Creta EV, Maruti's eVX, they're all in the segment above 20 lakhs. I think for EVs to really take off in India, we need good EVs in the 10-15 lakh and 5-10 lakh segments, we need more subcompact EVs. The Punch EV is a good example, it's averaging 2000 units a month because it falls in that sweet spot. Whatever said and done, the above 20 lakh segment is for a different type of buyer, they don't care all that much about fuel savings, at least not as much as someone who shops around in the 10-15 lakh would, and they're also less likely to want to put up with all the constraints of doing interstate trips with EVs.

Top-down approach to EVs won't make them mainstream, Indian automakers need to learn from BYD, they need to go bottom-up, with EVs that start from 10 lakhs. 10-15 lakh price, with 300 km highway range, that's when the mainstream buyers will be enticed. That's why Tata has the edge on everybody else I feel, they are not treating EVs as a niche for just those paying above 20 lakhs. They have one available right from below 10 lakhs, and will have models available all the way up to 30 lakhs.

Last edited by TorqueAddict007 : 21st June 2024 at 12:31. Reason: Correcting a few typos
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Old 21st June 2024, 14:29   #4
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

The biggest concern after the costing of the EV vehicles is the lack of personal space for charging at home, it is by far the biggest hinderance which will take a long time to be resolved.
India being densely populated will have to innovate on the home-charging problems, leave metro and tier I cities even tier II & III have this problem.
In my opinion unless these two big problems "cost of vehicle & home-charging" is resolved India will take long time to shift to EV.
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Old 21st June 2024, 16:24   #5
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

We should distinguish between percentages and numbers. A 60% adoption rate in India is stil a large number of EVs on the roads. As long as the remaining continue to be BS6 and B4 and govt successfully manages to retire the older clunkers, especially the badly maintained ones, there should be a real impact.

Also numbers do not tell the full story. India should aggressively push for city (and short inter-city) public transport to move to EVs. A smaller number, but a huge environmental impact. I am also for re-introducing electric double decker EVs in city roads on dense routes. The physical footprint vs the environmental impact of these buses are substantial.

Last edited by Contrapunto : 21st June 2024 at 16:26.
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Old 21st June 2024, 23:58   #6
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

The shift to EVs will also be influenced by regulatory changes affecting ICE engines.

Changing Weather and Pressure to Go Cleaner
The introduction of BS VI norms, which required significant changes to both diesel and petrol engines as well as fuel types, has already driven up vehicle and ownership costs.

Impact of BS VI on Vehicle Costs:
Petrol Vehicles: Costs increased by approximately 10%, with a 5% rise in service costs.
Diesel Vehicles: Costs increased by approximately 15%, with a 20% rise in service costs.
These cost increases are due to the need for advanced fuel injection systems, enhanced engine management systems, and sophisticated after-treatment systems (like DPF and SCR), which also require regular maintenance and the use of AdBlue (urea solution).

Given current global warming and changing weather patterns, BS VII norms might be implemented sooner than anticipated, further increasing vehicle costs.

EV Adoption and Technological Breakthroughs
If significant breakthroughs in battery technology occur, there could be a sudden surge in EV adoption.

CAFE Norms and Carbon Credits
Tesla seems to have been selling approximately $1.5 billion worth of carbon credits annually since 2020, making it nearly a $6 billion business. Other car companies will eventually need to move away from relying on carbon credit purchases and increase their EV adoption to meet CAFE norms.
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Old 22nd June 2024, 10:04   #7
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

After having owned an EV for a year and watching so many folks who continue to own and drive ICE cars, I have come to this conclusion: To the average joe, change is tough. Changing to an EV requires changing decades of deeply ingrained behaviours/ expectations like having someone fueling your car at the bunk vs using an app to find a charging point and plugging in yourself. The early adopters see the advantages of a change and can live with the pain of going through the change. Not the same for mainstream folks. The tipping point I think is further down the road.
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Old 22nd June 2024, 11:35   #8
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

Should watch this Autocar Podcast that just went live, has good insights on why EV adoption will quicken

Not because we the customer want it, because manufactures need to avoid CAFE fines ��

Mahindra sold a Half-baked XUV 400 and did not even bother to give it the 3XO update just to meet Cafe norms and avoid fines ..��*♀️



Also here is list of CAFE fines that Indian manufactures are currently paying
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Old 24th June 2024, 18:28   #9
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

Quote:
Originally Posted by BSASLR View Post

Mahindra sold a Half-baked XUV 400 and did not even bother to give it the 3XO update just to meet Cafe norms and avoid fines ..��*♀️

Also here is list of CAFE fines that Indian manufactures are currently paying
Couln't find Mahindra on the list
Are they also paying fines or in the green zone?
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Old 24th June 2024, 22:16   #10
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

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Originally Posted by The Pianist View Post
Couln't find Mahindra on the list
Are they also paying fines or in the green zone?
The tactic of selling a restricted quantity of XUV 400 vehicles and subsequently seeming to drive it to a dead end by omitting a 3XO level upgrade seems to have worked.

This sentiment is echoed by Mr. Hormazd Sorabjee.
Consequently, all signs indicate that they have managed to evade any penalties.
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Old 26th June 2024, 02:59   #11
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

India is going to take long time for EV growth like many other World countries.

There are many questions which need to be answered.

How much choice do we have in the EV sector ? Do we have compact and family EV cars which we can rely upon like a Toyota Innova or a mid range car ?

How many EV cars do we have in the 10-15 lakhs bracket ?

How many charging stations are available, especially in large societies in larger cities ?

How many newer builders are actually providing charging points in parking lots ?

How many actual common charging stations do we have in cities ?

With the family / friends road trip journeys on a rise in India, how many charging stations do we have on the highways ?

Are all EV's actually safe ? Dosing out Lithium fires is not an easy task.

Lot of work needs to be done, besides just announcing that India will be fully EV one day.
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Old 28th June 2024, 10:55   #12
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Re: India's EV Market still to trail worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040

But with current rate is less than 6% of total new vehicles sold are only EV's in India. The projection by 2040 seems highly optimal.
Either solid state battery mass production and availability by start of 2030 shall happen for this, or an increased range and very high DC charging infrastructure along NH should drive them. GOI also expect an optimistic figure of 30% of new vehicle sold in India to be EV's.
It has to be seen whether the drive will continue till 2040 or any prospects on alternate fuel, hydrogen, synthetic and bio diesel will come to market.
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