Quote:
Originally Posted by hrman Out of all this, the way forward is the following:
1. TRAI ....period too? |
My understanding is somewhat different.
1. The Hon'ble Supreme Court has pronounced the Govt and its policies as guilty (the first-come-first-served basis)
2. To this extent, all the licences issued under this policy needs to be re-evaluated.
3. Since the case in the court was about 2008 licence issue, its verdict is only about the new operators and some old ones
4. The court has asked TRAI to suggest on how to recover the losses and has suggested re-bidding or re-issuing afresh. TRAI and Govt have to come with a decision on this
5. It has said that the new companies have illegally benefitted, but has not said they are guilty. That is up to the Trial Courts to decide
6. It has asked the Govt to finalise everything within 4 months and wipe the slate clean
This does not mean that the licences will be cancelled. If you read today's papers, the Govt has said it will come out with a new M&A policy within 10 days. It basically means, "we are coming out with a new policy which might mean some of you guys will have to cough up more money. So before that, you have the option of bailing out."
So I do not think operations of the new companies will stop (unless, of course, the sell the stake and leave the arena).
A few days back, the Givt faced flak from India Inc and foreign investors on its decision to stall the FDI in Retail sector. And now this. It is highly unlikely that the Govt will do anything that will jeopardize future FDI inflow.
It is also noteworthy that the only two companies affected, Uninor and MTS, are owned by the Russian and the Norwegian Govt respectively. Russians are old friends of Indiia and Norway is the biggest lender. Videocon, Etisalat and Loop do not have subscribers to talk about. THe other two, however, have quite a good size; I think around 70 million customers.
At the end of it all, I do not see anyone losing except the employees of these companies in case something adverse happens. THe company owners will not have to pay a single dime, old operators will start raising their prices (in fact, Airtel has already mentioned a day before the judgement that it plans to increase tariff (coincidence?)).
It will be interesting to see what solution the Govt comes up with after it is free from all the blame game and rabble rousing.