My Analysis:
- If inflation affects you as a customer, remember, cost pressures also affect the manufacturers. Things are looking increasingly tough in our fiercely competitive marketplace. Interest rates are shooting through the roof (affects manufacturer financing, as also the dealer's cost of inventory), raw materials are getting more expensive and transportation isn't cheap either. The big guys will sail through due to their size, economies of scale, available working capital and new products; it's the smaller brands that develop stress lines on their foreheads.
- We have fresh entrants on the monthly sales report, and
all of them start at great prices. The positioning of the Honda Brio, Nissan Sunny and Mahindra XUV - all three part of distinctly separate segments - illustrate how it's a buyers market today. The Hyundai Eon, to be launched later this month, has the potential to become a game changer in the entry-level segment. You simply can't price your product higher than it's perceived value; just ask the new Ford Fiesta, or even Honda why it cut prices on the City & Jazz recently.
- The customer with the lightest wallet is the one that is the most sensitive to expensive liters of petrol. Consider the effect of the petrol price hike on the Alto, Spark & Nano.
- There's black & red marks in equal measure on Maruti's report card. Domestic sales are down 17% year on year. The Alto has its worst performance of the year (still the best selling car by a mile @ 21,000 units though), the market has shaved off 33% of its demand, compared to the first quarter of this year. Status quo for the Maruti 800 & Omni with a good run, while the Eeco takes a marginal dip (where is the diesel?). The practical WagonR bounces back and how, with 13,000 sold last month! As does the Swift with 11,000+; Maruti has enough Swift order to keep their assembly line busy for the next three quarters, such is the appeal of this cult car. 9,411 units re-enforce the Dzire's position as India's favourite sedan. SX4 production was not a priority for Maruti in the midst of all their labour troubles, while the Kizashi & Grand Vitara continue their flop shows.
- 7000 Eons dispatched to Hyundai dealerships! If Hyundai prices the
fluidic small car well, it's going to shake up the entry segment. The Santro & i10 have a respectable run, though not quite what they were managing in the first 6 months of 2011 (prior to the whopping petrol price hike). The i20, on the other hand, climbs back to the 7,000 level. The new Verna is the indisputable Hyundai star of the year; once again, it has emerged as the king of the upper C segment by defeating the City & Vento by a comfortable margin. Accent sales continue to slide south...the market is showing its preference for modern hatchbacks over old sedans (at the same price).
- Party time for the Indica & Vista with September ending in 5 digits. Even the Indigo & Manza have had a great month @ 7,793 cars. Unfortunately, the cheap, competent Nano fails to find buyers in the market and is officially a market failure. I'm sure Tata will pull a rabbit out of the hat eventually, and I'd eagerly observe how they do it. Lots of Safari lovers out there, and even the Aria sells over 500 units for the first time this year. Cheaper 4x2 Aria variant helps the premium Tata.
- Bad market conditions? Someone forgot to tell that to the Mahindra Bolero that posts its best month ever of 2011. Nearly 10,000 units sold, rural India must still be on a post-monsoon roll. The Scorpio also has it's best month of the year yet. The Xylo trundles along at its expected 2.5K mark, while the Verito seems to be settling down at 1,500 odd. "Five hundred" 500's move out of the factory.
- The Etios sisters (hatchback & sedan siblings) settle at the 3,000 mark, giving Toyota crucial marketshare points. The Innova, Corolla & Fortuner also continue their reliable (pun intended
) performance.
- I had predicted that the Vento will outsell the Polo, and the all-rounded sedan does just that for the 4th time this year. Decent performance by the Vento, but proper 4 cylinder engines could greatly help the Polo's cause. The new Jetta does what was expected of it, with the best sales performance thus far in 2011 and importantly, overtaking sister Laura. On the other hand, the Passat is quite the 20 lakh rupee dud, and simply isn't able to catch the premium customer's fancy.
- The Ford Figo is Mr. Consistency, delivering a 5,200 odd score for the third month in a row. It's value-for-money price tag & neutral product characteristics ensure buyers aren't looking away, even with the onslaught of new launches. The surprise from the Ford family is the ol' Fiesta, which continues to go from strength to strength AFTER the new (generation) Fiesta's launch. What was Ford thinking when they approved of that pricing strategy? The Endeavour has it's best month in 6.
- An oil burner can change your fortunes, and how! Look at the Chevrolet Beat that has crossed 5,000 orders yet again, and nudges just ahead of the Figo. The Spark sees a marginal improvement, but still isn't able to sustain the volumes it held in the Jan - June period which were double that of the current volumes.
- Brio dealer shipments have started, and Honda has left everyone pleasantly surprised with their superb pricing strategy. This car alone will double Honda's marketshare in the months to come, diesel option be damned. Still not seeing the effect all of us expected with the whopping 1.5 lakh rupee price-cut on the Jazz. One can see the effect of the petrol price hike on the City; nevertheless, 3,700 copies still makes for an excellent month. The Civic is languishing behind it's competitors, even the Accord outsells it! The less said about the grossly overpriced CRV, the better.
- The cute Micra is another consistent performer, with yet another month at the 1,500 level. The Sunny starts its innings with 659 units shipped to dealers.
- Pressure rising over at Skoda's HQ. While the resurrected Fabia is moderately successful (now selling 2 - 3 times YOY), the Laura hits a low point, and is outsold by the Jetta. The superbly packaged Yeti disappoints with a mere 50 sales, while the Superb also has its worst month of 2011. The Superb was a dependable performer, but things are looking shaky in the 20 lakh rupee sedan segment.
- They say, when the going gets tough, it's the weakest who are hit the most. Look at Fiat : The Linea & Punto hit an all-time low. The Punto somehow managed an average of 1K in recent months, but isn't able to sustain that with newer, fresher competition.
- We always insisted that the Renault Fluence was poorly priced & positioned. I mean, who sells a bare-bones diesel sedan at 15 lakhs! Unsurprisingly, the market agrees, with the Fluence making up the back of the C+ segment grid. 91 Koleos' sold, though we'll wait for another couple months before passing verdict on the Renault SUV. For the record, I think the Koleos is terribly positioned too.
- The Cayenne outsells the 911 25:1. What was that about Indians loving practicality again?