Re: SIAM expects Car Sales to grow by 10-12% in 2012-2013 My expectations from the new financial year (April 2012 - March 2013):
1. 10 - 12% growth is realistic only if there are a number of relevant product launches. It's been raining new cars for the last 2 years.
2. Petrol cars will continue to suffer, as another Rs. 5 hike is expected in current quarter.
3. Maruti will go from strength to strength. Labour troubles behind it, while the product range includes a new Swift, Dzire & Ertiga. The next-gen Maruti 800 replacement is expected in December.
4. Audi will overtake BMW & Mercedes if the Q3 is priced well. The underdog has a realistic chance of emerging as the No.1 in the market. Everyone will end up shocked (most of all, the super-aggressive BMW).
5. Chevrolet & Ford need some new stars to brighten things up. They can't rely on a single smash hit (Beat & Figo, respectively).
6. Hyundai runs the risk of losing No.2 position to Tata, unless it brings out some <7 lakh rupee diesels soon. Hyundai should also start thinking of 7 seater UVs. Tata has a lot of market-share points to be gained from the Nano diesel. It could well be a game-changer.
7. Fiat will continue to tank. The 2012 refreshments have done nothing for their cars.
8. Honda - until they get the diesels - only has the Brio to look forward to in 2012 - 2013. The Brio will take this company past the 10,000 monthly mark. Soon.
9. Mahindra will also (like Maruti) go from strength to strength. The Mini-Xylo has solid potential, while the XUV / Scorpio / Bolero continue to rake in the $$$.
10. Nissan is happy with the Sunny's performance. Now, their next product needs to be very carefully positioned. If the NV200 van is launched next, it could gain traction (provided the price is right). Whatever the brand does now, it has to be backed by solid strategic thinking.
11. With no volume launches lined up, VW & Skoda ought to focus on building capacity, dealer network, reliability & good will. Their dealerships, reliability & after-sales experiences are far from the benchmarks. |