[C300]

Originally Posted by 46TheDoctor

Hello GTO, Nice write up!
But, even though i feel sympathy for auto industry in india, i sincerely feel that increasing car penetration levels is not a good option for us because:
1. Ours is nation of more than a billion people and our infrastrure is clearly not suitable for higher ratio of no. of cars/ population.
2. Just look at the development of our residential as well as our public areas. There is not enough space for parking as well as vehicular movement on streets even with current ratio. Just imagine 25-35 times the current traffic on our roads and also the amount of polution
3. So to accomodate that kind of personal vehicular concentration in our conditions we need to entirely revise our public infrastucture as well as building by laws to reduce population density in our cities which is just not possible now as we are at the point of no return.
4. So, the only solution for us looks to be the improvement of public transport to the levels of developed nations and definitely not the increase in car penetration levels.
So to conclude, it is definitely disappointing for us petrolheads for not being able to buy our dream machines at reasonable prices, but in a larger picture i feel good that personal vehicle sales are going down because it cant be a transport solution for country of more than billion people especially with the unplanned infratructure like ours. As far as the employment is concerned it can be generated through other sectors as well.
I would like to know opinions of fellow bhpians on this.

+1. Very well said. We should not blindly follow the western model. The focus should be on the public transport in our cities than the growth of Auto sector.

Originally Posted by raul

Growth is essential to lift the large portion of our population out of poverty and provide a decent life, we have learned to live with a ridiculous amount of folks living on 30 rupees a day and all the attendant problems. Ignoring it won't make it go away.

The only way this will happen is by more consumption domestically or exports. I don't think its fair for the 5% of us who are well off and can afford life's niceties to now talk about infrastructure. 10 million more cars means millions of jobs which we need, folks who will now earn and consume and this is how an economy grows, one person buying 10 cars doesn't help anyone.

Of course we need sustainable growth and here is where we are completely let down by extremely poor governance, unimaginable levels of corruption, unimaginative business - where are the electric autos, cars? - which makes every policy meaningless as we can't implement it.

What is stopping us from having well planned cities with proper infrastructure, public transportation, and all the other things we see in the west? The fact that we are a billion plus makes it even more critical. Its certainly not money but the will to do things properly, our administration and politicians are mixed up with various lobbies and this reflects in the poor state of our cities with all the haphazard business areas, housing societies, hospitals, hotels, schools, malls which completely go against basic infrastructure and traffic planning thanks entirely to political connections and graft. Its not that we don't have brains.

We find ourselves here with some growth and at least 5% in a position to consume thanks entirely to the IT and BPO boom from early 90s with folks finally earning enough to consume which has driven growth in all other sectors from housing, auto, banking, mobile, retail, TV etc. But that's not going to be enough, what the next growth impetus?

IMO the time has come to question this relentless pursuit of growth and consumerism. What growth are we talking about? is it our natural resources? is it the forest cover? is it the ground water level? We have excluded all the natural resources from the economic equation and material consumption has become the focus point.

[veyron_head]

For all who think more cars will lead to more congestion because of poor infrastructure, I have a thought there.

Infrastructure building has always been retrospective in India. What I mean by that is, Roads (whatever little we have) were built because of the industry flourishing. Roads were not built 'for' the industry to flourish in future. Infrastructure is not planned, it has always been driven by demand. When the govt has no way out, that is when they put things into action.

Same is the case with cars, if there are more cars on the road, it will have to lead to improved infrastructure over a period of time. I may sound silly, but we unfortunately are in a nation where the policy makers act only when it comes to the tipping point.

[raul]

There is a place for intellectual debate on materialism and growth but I suspect India 2012 is not the place. I don't how much longer we can continue to ignore the state of the country we live in and and talk about 'material consumption' as if it is a bad thing when it drives all human activity on planet earth.

Material consumption leads to demand, demand leads to employment, which leads to people have a chance living a life, which is critical in India with 53% poverty and more than 45% living on less than 30 rupees a day.

How are these people to be helped, do we have the luxury of debate on 'material consumption' while people suffer and live in unacceptable conditions for the last 50 years, time in which countries like Japan and S. Korea have gone from zero to developed economies thanks to 'material consumption'.

You may not need material consumption, but of course you do, you need the internet, you need the pc, and you need all the other things in life, so really I don't see how anyone can presume to deny it others without at least taking the trouble to think and articulate solutions that address deprivation and poverty.

[anu21v]

Originally Posted by ninjatalli

I'll give my take of it - even with a perfectly functioning government in an utopian market, can we ever sustain 98% of our population having cars?

The Only utopian thing that is required in this market is a lower Population levels and rest all the things will get stabilized on its own. Guess we will have to wait till there is a government with spine to implement 1 child policy like china

Sample This:

India vs China: China 3 times India's Size, Indian Population same as china. Population Density 3 time of china.
India vs USA: USA three times India's Size, India's population 2.5 times of US. Population Density 7.5 Times US. In this country we can not afford to have or even allow every person to keep its own car till population is control, certainly not at current population density level.

Someone Thinking about Japan or Korea or Singapore for population density levels shouldn't forget how these economies are so dependent on Food and General Supplies on outside countries and only balance these deficiencies with their Trade Surpluses which in case of india is negative.

Originally Posted by raul

Material consumption leads to demand, demand leads to employment, which leads to people have a chance living a life, which is critical in India with 53% poverty and more than 45% living on less than 30 rupees a day

Well there is nothing wrong with material consumption the way u projected, Only when Companies start factoring in Exploding Population growth, possible increase of Incomes of middle classes and couple it with Low per Capita Car Density to project the possible growth of market this whole problem starts. This market with its burgeoning population with "Imported Fuels" with negative "Trade surplus" simply can not afford a very high per capita car density.

[C300]

Originally Posted by raul

There is a place for intellectual debate on materialism and growth but I suspect India 2012 is not the place. I don't how much longer we can continue to ignore the state of the country we live in and and talk about 'material consumption' as if it is a bad thing when it drives all human activity on planet earth.

Material consumption leads to demand, demand leads to employment, which leads to people have a chance living a life, which is critical in India with 53% poverty and more than 45% living on less than 30 rupees a day.

How are these people to be helped, do we have the luxury of debate on 'material consumption' while people suffer and live in unacceptable conditions for the last 50 years, time in which countries like Japan and S. Korea have gone from zero to developed economies thanks to 'material consumption'.

You may not need material consumption, but of course you do, you need the internet, you need the pc, and you need all the other things in life, so really I don't see how anyone can presume to deny it others without at least taking the trouble to think and articulate solutions that address deprivation and poverty.

^ IMO the fundamental question is what is our definition of growth? Is massive urbanisation and industrial farming our aim? Many of our farmers/villagers will not fullfil the minimum income/wage criteria but dont be fooled by their outer appearances. There are probably more content people in the villages than in concrete jungles.
I think India 2012 is the place to ask these questions. We should be more worried about the state of natural resources in our country than becoming Japan/S Korea/US.
Mods - apologies if we are going

[46TheDoctor]

Originally Posted by raul

There is a place for intellectual debate on materialism and growth but I suspect India 2012 is not the place. I don't how much longer we can continue to ignore the state of the country we live in and and talk about 'material consumption' as if it is a bad thing when it drives all human activity on planet earth.

Material consumption leads to demand, demand leads to employment, which leads to people have a chance living a life, which is critical in India with 53% poverty and more than 45% living on less than 30 rupees a day.

How are these people to be helped, do we have the luxury of debate on 'material consumption' while people suffer and live in unacceptable conditions for the last 50 years, time in which countries like Japan and S. Korea have gone from zero to developed economies thanks to 'material consumption'.

You may not need material consumption, but of course you do, you need the internet, you need the pc, and you need all the other things in life, so really I don't see how anyone can presume to deny it others without at least taking the trouble to think and articulate solutions that address deprivation and poverty.

I totally agree that material consumption drives human life on the planet. But, we should be also asking ourselve constantly that what are we producing by consuming this material?
Are we producing something sustainable? Or are we producing something that will make our human race extict may be in a century or so?
I sincerely feel that our govt. should promote projects like River Linking which has the potential to remove poverty and unemployment from our country in a sustainable way, rather than copying western model of industrial development as a solution.
Maybe we didn't give thought to this till now but i think it is time we do so.
Mods sorry for going off topic.

[samarjitdhar]

Originally Posted by anu21v

Someone Thinking about Japan or Korea or Singapore for population density levels shouldn't forget how these economies are so dependent on Food and General Supplies on outside countries and only balance these deficiencies with their Trade Surpluses which in case of india is negative.

+1.

Actually folks might be already knowing this but for those who do not know in a place like Singapore, the government discourages car ownership by running a license system for owning cars where limited number of licenses are auctioned off periodically to the highest bidders. We cannot term the government in Singapore socialist or communist or against material consumption by any wild imagination. It is just that being such a small country with limited resources it has to ration some things to ensure mayhem doesn't set in. I read this article on Bloomberg the other day that a car along with the license in Singapore actually costs more than an average home in the US which is close to $150000. And this is an average VW Jetta/Golf maybe or something lower we are talking about. What Singapore of course did was create a fantastic public transport infrastructure to attain and sustain growth. Our politicos only are visionaries in a fantasy world citing all sorts of excuses for their inaction in the real world.

[texmonster]

As a businessman, I know how hard it is to stay afloat when there are volatile and unstable Govt. policy environment. Our Indian car industry will be helped if our government decides on a policy for the longer run.

If diesel cars are to be taxed, let it be. If diesel is to be rationed, let it be. But they should pick a solution and STICK with it! How will a company survive if there is a dagger floating over it all the time?

[Daewood]

Originally Posted by anu21v

The Only utopian thing that is required in this market is a lower Population levels and rest all the things will get stabilized on its own. Guess we will have to wait till there is a government with spine to implement 1 child policy like china

Do you want another Sanjay Gandhi to forcibly sterilize people. If population levels decrease that would be catastrophic for the nation. (i.e) when dependency ratio goes up, the economy will not be able to sustain . It's one of the reasons for all the problems that Europe is facing today.

[Equus]

This thread has digressed a lot. Going back--

The govt is getting desperate, day over day over the fiscal deficit (esp the current account deficit) and will look for cash-cows (like auto sector in the current market scenario) to bail out. But i believe its a temp phenomenon until the deficit worries subside. During growth times (8% upwards), there are lot more avenues to collect from, for the govt.

Bringing inflation under control is most important and I support it, at any cost.
We dont feel the pinch, but the lower sections of the society are hurt real bad.

[noopster]

I read some of 46TheDoctor's posts and think this NEEDS to be said.

Am I OK with 600 million cars on India's roads? Well, why not?

As raul rightly pointed out, you need to identify the problem before you can solve it. Modern India has become adept- alas!- at solving the wrong problem.

The question is not about 600 million cars, or even a billion of them. There needs to be some long-term thinking in place on transportation that allows for all of these: mass rapid transit, inter-city connectivity, urban decongestion etc. etc. Simply saying "tax the cars heavily because they clog the streets" is misguided. Car owners are a soft target and by sending this sort of signal to global companies who set up facilities here we are only shooting ourselves in the foot.

[vibbs]

Plus 100 to what Noopster said. Taxing cars out of comon people s reach is not the right solution. That just skews the reality against the favour of poor.

How? I ll explain. In a country with hardly any sort of Public transport options, what is the common man supposed to do? Sorry sir, buying a car or a bike is not a luxury in todays India, it has become a necessity. There has to be an alternative to owning a personal vehicle and using it daily. After all everyone wants to save money.

Moreover, in a free world if a rich man can buy a car, the poor has the equal right to buy it too. Taxing it insanely will take it out of the reach of the poor man who will then feel violated. I m not saying do away with taxes. Just that they should be reasonable

Today people buy cars and drive them to office not because they enjoy spending 2 hrs behind the wheel at average speed of 10Km/hr and in the end see a big part of their earnings going up along with their cars exhaust. They do so because they dont have any credible alternative to that.

I staying in Delhi am facing it. Absolutely no credible means of public transport to Gurgaon from the place I stay which incindentaly is next door to gurgaon, means I am now looking for a second car or a bike for my wife to go to work. Tax personal vehicles exorbitantly and I am in a bigger soup. What will I do? Ask my wife to walk down?

If at all the thought of taxing private vehicles beyond common mans reach comes up, it has to be after a robust and efficient public transport system has been set up. Improve existing infrastructure.

[anu21v]

Originally Posted by Daewood

Do you want another Sanjay Gandhi to forcibly sterilize people. If population levels decrease that would be catastrophic for the nation. (i.e) when dependency ratio goes up, the economy will not be able to sustain . It's one of the reasons for all the problems that Europe is facing today.

Neither did china needed services of Mr Sanjay Gandhi nor it faces the problem as faced by Europe and hell its still flourishing at a break-neck speed. All that china needed was a policy with prudent people at top and it definitely helped them. Population explosion is definitely not the answer to economic need or growth, its just a problem. Whoever thinks because of increasing poulation India is going to be economic superpower he is plain wrong. The increasing population will first eat away all the domestic resources before it goes and wins any war anywhere.

Why cant we simply accept the truth that population explosion is one of the biggest problem faced by modern India. Whatever government puts in infrastructure gets simply lost to the speed of urban India size increase. With the country of our resources its simply fatal to keep finding the solutions to other problem while not trying to solve or simply overlook the main problem.

In any case that statement was light hearted response to an Utopian scenario

[46TheDoctor]

Originally Posted by noopster

I read some of 46TheDoctor's posts and think this NEEDS to be said.

Am I OK with 600 million cars on India's roads? Well, why not?

Then, please answer all of the questions i have raised in one of my previous posts about it's effects and justify them. I will be in agreement with you if you can do that.
Thnx.

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by noopster

I read some of 46TheDoctor's posts and think this NEEDS to be said.

Am I OK with 600 million cars on India's roads? Well, why not?

As raul rightly pointed out, you need to identify the problem before you can solve it. Modern India has become adept- alas!- at solving the wrong problem.

The question is not about 600 million cars, or even a billion of them. There needs to be some long-term thinking in place on transportation that allows for all of these: mass rapid transit, inter-city connectivity, urban decongestion etc. etc. Simply saying "tax the cars heavily because they clog the streets" is misguided. Car owners are a soft target and by sending this sort of signal to global companies who set up facilities here we are only shooting ourselves in the foot.

And as I pointed out to @raul's post, we generally end up keeping a very narrow outlook in defining the problem statement. You need to have an outlook at every aspect, not simply the auto industry or our infrastructure capacity. The question deals with what is the best possible solution keeping in mind the incapable governance of our governments. Obviously taxing private car owners might not be the best solution, but we might have a look at our south-eastern neighbors who have gone down that lane and take a few pointers from them. Not just simply worry that about investors and keep a blind eye to the various problems getting generated on our side (ecology/infrastructure/etc).

And for the record, I am certainly not ok with 600 million cars on India's roads. We can't afford it on any terms, rather I doubt if we actually need it.

P.s. All the above statements are on a realistic aspect. Let's keep the hypothetical/Utopian views aside.

Originally Posted by noopster

There needs to be some long-term thinking in place on transportation that allows for all of these: mass rapid transit, inter-city connectivity, urban decongestion etc. etc.

+1 to this obviously. And I doubt if @46TheDoctor or anyone else was against this.