Team-BHP - October 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:

Originally Posted by arnabchak (Post 3842086)

[b]2) Baleno
I am of the firm belief that the Baleno belongs to the normal Maruti showrooms. Limiting the sale from Nexa also limits its sales reach.

This car has the potential to be where the Swift is today.
A realistic sales of 12K + is achievable from the Baleno.

Though the initial response is strong at close to 5K shipments, I still believe that the Nexa is sort of clipping the wings of a potential 7K-8K additional sales from the Baleno

Though it is obvious that Baleno would do very well in normal MS showroom than Nexa due to its reach, but what Maruti is trying to build here is another brand Nexa. MS wants us to start believing that it can make really good premium products and would eventually get some in D segment and start making more money through higher margins. I think Baleno is fantastic product to do that.

I would say all the best!

Great to see the Mahindra numbers. Bolero has managed to stand its own even in the aftermath of the TUV launch. The discussions on the TUV review thread are spot on - Bolero and TUV indeed appeal to different people.

VERY surprised to see the Duster and Terrano numbers! With Creta, TUV, XUV, Scorpio, Ecosport and even Ertiga doing really well, the Renault and Nissan twins have actually managed to see 70% increase in sales! clap:Guess the heavy discounts are working for them. A friend of mine was offered INR 1 Lakh discount on the 85ps RxL today, here in Bangalore.

Polo and Vento, seem to be holding on, in fact slight improvement with the free insurance and finance schemes on offer, despite what has been happening with VW. Same goes for the Rapid. Can't say the same about the Jetta. Big drop. Interesting times ahead for these models.

Even discounts don't seem to be helping the S-cross. On a steady decline from what I can see.

Poor start by the Trailblazer. Not even 10% of the Fortuner and with things not looking good for GM, seems all downhill from here.

Last but not the least, I salute the THREE souls who booked the Quanto :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by naikameya (Post 3842182)

Maruti needs to justify Dealer Viability, they have launched premium showrooms and their network partners will not be happy with the returns from S-Cross (which is clearly struggling). They had to throw a bone so that the channel partners remain engaged and loyal. I think smart Strategic move by Maruti. The trade off between volumes for Baleno and New Channel Survival.

Maruti will not lose TOTAL volumes because of this move, the rural / semi Urban pockets which still dont have Nexa will continue to buy Swift / Dzire.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rajeevraj (Post 3842085)

S-Cross struggling ~3000 units would be good for most manufacturers, but for Maruti it is the 2nd slowest selling car after Ritz. Limited Nexa reach could be a cause.

Hey Rajeev,

I don't think Nexa reach is the reason. I stay right next to a Nexa showroom and I see people thronging the place to see, test drive and book the Baleno. This never happened with S-cross. To be honest, we neighbours were at peace till the Baleno arrived. Now, it is a pain to get into the apartment with number of cars parked on the road and the crowd outside the showroom.

Bottom line - The S-cross' appeal is very questionable. Baleno seems to be just the opposite.

Few observations and predictions:
Renault
Thanks to Kwid has jumped to 8th position. With over 50,000 bookings they have a realistic chance to jump to 5th position if they could increase their production to 13k units per month.

Maruti Baleno
This is another blockbuster in the making for Maruti. Expect over 10k units next month. Despite such a huge base of 1 lac unit shipments per month, Maruti has witnessed a 20% jump year on year. Kudos to them

Volkswagen
Global scandal is starting to take its toll. I expect their sales to decline significantly over the next few months. It could get worse if Indian government were to find them to be cheating in India

Honda Jazz
Sales seems to be falling very slowly. Expect sales to drop to 3k over the next 3 months with discounts by December

Tata Zest
Seems to be gaining momentum again. Expect their sales to cross 3000 units next month

Mobilio
Its dead. In fact S-Cross will also face the same fate. Get greedy and price high, the product will die in less than a year.

I actually thought that I would have nothing to say on the sales thread this month but there are a couple of interesting points I thought I should raise. The first pertains to the Kwid which has about 5700 despatches and that is within striking distance of the Eon which consistently sells around 6500 numbers every month. However, Renault needs to cater to the 50000 people who have booked the Kwid in as short a time as possible (with consistently good quality in the putting together of the car) because I don't think that too long waiting periods will be tolerated by potential buyers especially around Diwali (and Dhanteras the day most of the purchases are scheduled for) in a scenario where there are other options available off the shelf. Testing time for Renault to keep its customers intact. It needs to do a Hyundai which is cutting down the waiting period of the Creta to three months from eight or nine months.

Talking of the Creta, I think the Bolero selling more should be taken with a pinch of salt (at least at this juncture) because the Creta has a big line while the Bolero has none and in the rural areas of some parts of India Dussehra is bigger than Diwali so it could be that reason. What is definitely interesting to watch is the TUV 300. I still remember in the first few months of its launch even the Quanto sold in excess of 5000 units per month. I think one has to wait and see if the TUV hangs on to these numbers or if the numbers start falling since Mahindras are still known for niggles that start showing up after a couple of months of use.

It is probably a good thing for Ford that the Figo and the Figo Aspire have taken off reasonably well since the Ecosport looks like it is losing a bit of its appeal. Otherwise that was the only stellar performer for Ford and a company like Ford cannot afford to be a one trick pony. GM keeps going down the proverbial drain. Halo products brought in as CBUs sell in the numbers that the Trailblazer sold this month and with just the Beat and the Tavera selling around the 1000 mark it remains to be seen what GM will do. The fact that 60 dealers have bailed out and more likely to do so does not auger well for GM and no amount of noise that Mary Barra makes about the future can secure the present for GM if it does not offer new products very, very soon. If there is no present then I guess there is no future either.

I think the big mistake that Tata made was in introducing the Bolt while selling the Vista because the Vista is definitely selling more than the Bolt. The Zest is a moderate success and given the fact that it is operating in a segment that is competitive and again it is continuing to sell the Indigo CS there, I don't know if Tata is doing the right thing. It probably needs to pull those products out of the market and see which way the Bolt and Zest go. The Nano apparently is wanted by those who want the AMT and it is not available off the shelf. Easy availability of the AMT version would definitely push the numbers up. But with Maruti putting the AMT in the Wagon R also I think the Magneti Marelli's priority is Maruti and the Nano will have to come to terms with this reality. Tata motors should consider even offering CVT transmission even if it is slightly more expensive it would make sense to offer a model with auto transmission since the target audience is women.

I am not worried about Fiat. If they are still here, they have something that we do not know about and they are doing fine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by balechaparka (Post 3842047)

September month 86 no of Gypsy sold and October is 586 ,any special reason for such a huge numbers?

Must be Army/Govt agencies orders which were dispatched?
No other reason for the Gypsy sales to jump 1000% suddenly!

Quote:

Originally Posted by drsingh (Post 3842169)

The bolero also being a blockbuster in the Rural economy that is 50% of our economy.

Bolero indeed is a Rural Blockbuster! With their Plus variant which can easily haul more than 20 people and the Dual-cab + Pickup variant, she has a lot of versatility to offer.

I got to spend almost a month in Betul in rural MP in August, and was surprised to see the sheer number of Boleros there! Got a chance to drive a Plus variant as well, which was surprisingly good to drive, and tamed the rough roads and terrain easily.

Festive season bonanza - 2.65 lac units moved out of the factories. Great

Kudos to MSIL's strategy - The Nexa concept

Nexa has done, S Cross: 3017 + Baleno: 4229 = 7246 units, that places Nexa just below Renault at no. 9, S Cross might settle at 2.5 K, Baleno will do about 6 K, add the Vitara Brezza say 1.5 K, you are looking at 10K units from Nexa alone with the current infrastructure taking the fight to TATA, Toyota and Ford, if it were to be considered a separate company. Once more showrooms open up, the no. would only grow and the sales will be driven by Baleno.

Hyundai, I'm disappointed that they have let down the former C2 sedan king, the Verna. However they are laughing their way to the bank. The upcoming compact SUV and MPV should help them cross 60K.

Mahindra deserves clap: applauds, with no A & B segment cars (that generate volumes), they have consistently managed no 3 or no 4 position in the chart, with only SUVs and UVs, shows how dominant the company is in this segment, a segment that TATA pioneered with the Sierra and Safari and gave it on a platter to Mahindra :Frustrati

Honda should be worrying about the Jazz doing only 4.5K units while the direct competitor does > 10K units consistently. There seems to be no plans to revive the Brio. It is now safe to call the Brio and Mobilio by Honda standards.

TATA - Good to see the consistency, but have not been able to cash in on the festive season. Hoping that they would come up with designs forgetting the indica silhouette. It pains to see the Safari, a cult brand not being given due importance for a revival.

Toyota - They would be happy as long as the Innova and the Fortuner rake numbers and keep the cash registers ringing.

Ford - 10 K units doesn't do justice to their portfolio, Fiesta is a lost cause now, how sad, a competent car ignored. Also the aspire and Figo nos are below expectations.

Renault - A single engine - the iDTEC changed the fortunes for Honda, will the new Kwid do so for Renault? Lets wait and watch. Kwid would bring in unmanageable volumes, hope they are prepared to handle the volumes.

Rest haven't had a good run, nothing to write home about.

How many of that 764 Fiats is the Abarth Punto? Is the surge because of Abarth or Festive season

Suzuki:
Swift, Dzire, Alto as usual occupying the top slots.
Interesting to see Ciaz and Ertiga picking up good numbers (SHVS strategy?).

Nexa:
Someone said Scross made around 3K sales. Keeping the Nexa move aside, pricing has dealt a serious blow to it. 320DDIS would have been a blockbuster, if priced around the 14L mark (Alpha, Onroad).
Baleno is another Megahit round the corner. Nexa will hike the prices for sure after the initial sales and may also get the Boosterjet engine?

Hyundai:
Good to see all its cars (except Verna, Elantra) ticking good numbers for the company.
Elite I20 11K and Jazz 4.4K? Honda has completely lost the plot. Will be interesting to see if Nexa will be able to take on Hyundai in this segment.

Honda:
City and Amaze helping them to be in the top ten chart. Where are Brio and Mobilio?

TATA:
Where are all the cars? Seriously!

Renault:
KWID is doing very good numbers. Heard that Suzuki may bring in the Ignis, to counter the this Renault baby. Interesting days ahead.

Ford:
Figo is a nice car and not surprised to see nice numbers there. Aspire?

FIAT:
No comments. Forget India, did not see any FIAT cars in the US. Probably they should stop selling cars outside EU and just sell engines, just kidding.

Toyota:
Sells good cars here, but in India, just banking upon Innova and Fortuner. I mean seriously, Etios and Liva? Come on Toyota.