[sgiitk]

@audioholic; Did you expect the manufacturer(s) to anticipate Covid? Obviously no.

Since we are in a three week time freeze, so why not open the window also. This is why I suggest we just treat three weeks as if they did not exist.

[audioholic]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

@audioholic; Did you expect the manufacturer(s) to anticipate Covid? Obviously no.

Sir, COVID was unexpected. But in terms of time, what was the damage? March 31st was the deadline for last registration of BS4 vehicles. The lockdown was announced later than March 20th. Lets say the COVID related slowdown started March 15th. We can account to a very optimistic 10-12 days of sale of these two wheelers across the country even if you assume vehicles would be sold and registered on March 31st. The monthly sales of two wheelers for January was 13,41,000 which also included offerings which were already BS6. Now they state there are 7,00,000 BS4 two wheelers which are unsold which the dealers thought will magically go off shelves within this lockdown period. Thats the argument I dont go with. When mass market players like Honda already started offering BS6 vehicles before the deadline, their share of the unsold vehicles would have been relatively lesser. Hence, so would be the sales.

That is why I believe the talk of 7 lakh unsold two wheelers is more of a bad planning activity. Keeping half a month of stocks with dealers when the BS6 deadline was approaching is stretching too much over the cliff. COVID19 was just that loose edge of the cliff which they slipped and fell. I would have had some sort of consideration if the COVID lockdown began maybe a month before the BS6 deadline. Then the logic of selling 7L BS4 vehicles side by side with their newer counterparts would have worked. That too given the current times when customer awareness is increasing and more number of people now know these differences and so.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

Did you expect the manufacturer(s) to anticipate Covid? Obviously no.

Since we are in a three week time freeze, so why not open the window also. This is why I suggest we just treat three weeks as if they did not exist.

Originally Posted by audioholic

Lets say the COVID related slowdown started March 15th. I believe the talk of 7 lakh unsold two wheelers is more of a bad planning activity. Keeping half a month of stocks with dealers when the BS6 deadline was approaching is stretching too much.

I think few companies like Hero took a risk and some others (premium brands like BMW/ Harley) simply preferred to wait till last moment to decide how much hit/ rebate they can pass. If I am not mistaken, these dealerships do a lot of sales in the last week.

I still believe SC should have given them further 10 clear days instead of putting conditions like 10 %. As an example, a particular branch of Harley has 8 Bikes, all costing over 15 Lac, so how many can they sell

[audioholic]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

I still believe SC should have given them further 10 clear days instead of putting conditions like 10 %. As an example, a particular branch of Harley has 8 Bikes, all costing over 15 Lac, so how many can they sell

Yes regarding the 10% number I dont know how they can ensure that on a country wide basis. Rather give them ten days and we will see how dealers will run around clearing the stock But that will at least give time for them to register it in their own names and then resell it. At least the big bikes could find takers if a decent discount is offered for it. But when it comes to mass market bikes, I dont see much action happening unless there is a fire sale. For the BS3 I remember Honda gave free Navis for some other bike purchased.

[romeomidhun]

About the 7L unsold 2-wheelers: The average sales of 2-wheelers per month is around 16L. So, 7L is just 2 weeks stock.

I won't say this is manufacturers' planning mistake. The ill-planned modernisation and the COVID-19 virus have done enough damage to the auto industry. Also, when lakhs of rupees of debt are written off by the govt, this is not a big thing. After all, they are not enemies of our country.

As a side note:- About the extra pollution these BS-4 vehicles make: The lock-down period has brought the pollution levels to very low levels. Delhi now has AQI as 60, while the usual levels are 600! We have enough buffer! Just joking.

[jetsetgo08]

I am not sure on how much of deliberation was there to come up with a figure of 10%. But, as others said it should rather be administratively easier if everything is postponed by 3 weeks which includes the sale of BS4 and the registrations as well.

Besides, I am assuming a significant percentage of the left over stocks are low cost yet quick movers like Splendors, CD Deluxe, Platina, CT100, TVS XL etc. And such vehicles have witnessed approx. 10% increase in their ex-showroom price due to BS6 enhancements. A common man would rather be interested to purchase a 5-10k lesser priced BS4 2 wheeler even if it were to be the last day of registration. It isn't bad planning by any means by the manufacturer.

[Diesel_Drives]

Originally Posted by romeomidhun

About the 7L unsold 2-wheelers: The average sales of 2-wheelers per month is around 16L. So, 7L is just 2 weeks stock.

This would be a fair assessment if the 7L has mix of OEMs stock as per the prevailing market share. Doesn't appear to be the case though, with HERO alone taking the extra initiative to knock SC's door, opting to buy back dealers stock of unsold BS4 inventory etc.

Maybe others like Bajaj, Honda don't really have much unsold inventory of BS4.

[itwasntme]

People are forgetting that before this last minute COVID-19 plea to the SC, FADA had tried in mid-February (14th) to get the SC to extend the BS-IV regime by 1 month, i.e. till 30 April. This was on the grounds of automobile industry slowdown.

The SC had rejected it outright saying that the date of 31 March was conclusively set as such in October 2018, and they would not countenance even 1 day's extension.

Essentially, a few manufacturers had put all their chips on an extension which failed, and COVID-19 then finished off all hope. It was a business gamble which went disastrously wrong.

[AdiSinghV12]

As someone with a slightly different opinion from the knowledgeable folks here, I'd say the 10 days extension period is a good enough move by the Apex Court, rather the centre should use this as opportunity to ease norms for the EV too to enter our market. The pollution level is at all time low and I know it wouldnt be that if the EV norms are relaxed they'll immediately enter the market and stuffs but I think this is the right time to open up a market and development of charging infrastructure to whatever little possible. The start should happen IMHO.

[navpreet318]

I don't know how all of you have casually forgotten about what happened in March 2017. Even then the BS3 Deadline was present and there was massive purchases happening on the last 2 days. Dealers had to call police and shut down the showrooms because of the sheer number of customers.
Even this time we saw customers waiting for higher discounts. Even on 20th March we saw potential customers wait for further discounts. They all had the 2017 memory firmly in their minds that more discounts will come. Who can forget that Honda dealers offered the Navi Scooter free with the CBR125.
They all wanted deals. And we would have seen massive sale in the last 2 to 3 days. But alas, COVID19 happened and everything was put into lock-down. No one anticipated it.
Now even the customers were apprehensive. They didn't want to spend their money in this unknown environment. Extension would have given a fresh and immediate boost to the economy which would be much needed.

But whats done is done.
And what needed to be done by dealers is done now. Dealers have gulped the poison and will be affected by it in the whole year to come. Maybe some will crumble. No other business has financial blockage due to inventory like this. No other business has inventory implications such as this business be it money involved or depreciation. The interest on this inventory which has been deferred will be huge.
In the end it will be the employees who will suffer. Any and every businessman will draw a line to losses somewhere.

What is especially a low blow that it now seems that everyone from the top to the bottom thinks the automobile dealers are crooks. Sad. Very Sad. Customers too look out to milk the dealers when they're in trouble with slow moving inventory. We don't call them all Looters! Maybe time we did!

[audioholic]

Originally Posted by romeomidhun

About the 7L unsold 2-wheelers: The average sales of 2-wheelers per month is around 16L. So, 7L is just 2 weeks stock

That's not so easy. As Diesel_drives has mentioned, those 7L vehicles would be probably the lesser selling models of manufacturers. Similarly, if those 15000 passenger vehicles were all Maruti, it would be a cakewalk for them since thats what they sell on an average in five days. Whereas for a Manufacturer who sells 15k per month, the whole projection changes. Given the fact that Maruti has exhausted most of the BS4 stock, their share of the 15000 would not be like the market share.

I have also mentioned earlier that those manufacturers who started an early transition would be less affected compared to those who held onto BS4. The second problem is when you already have BS6 two wheelers, customers will think twice before choosing between the two. Hence its not an easy job to sell the leftover stock.

[vsrivatsa]

So its 01 Apr 2020, are Bunks all around the country offering BS VI Fuel? What a way to enter into the BS VI Era !

Here, in Karnataka taking vehicles out itself is banned until 14th Apr from today - so hoping to hear from other folks who are able to take their vehicle out and re-fuel on availability of BS VI Fuel...

[GTO]

The auto industry resisted & lobbied hard, but the government forced them to move to BS6.

Now, the fools want to take credit for it

Automobile Industry’s Outstanding Achievement – BS VI from Today

New Delhi, 1st April 2020: As India leads global fight against COVID-19, 1st April 2020 gets recorded as a defining moment in Indian Automotive Industry journey as it transits today nation-wide to BS VI Emission Norms, from BS IV, by skipping BS V Emission Norms, altogether. This transition has been four year ahead of the first plan of Government of India in 2014, wherein it was proposed to move to BS VI in the year 2024. While the resolve of our mighty nation is currently under test, unflinching commitment and combined efforts of Indian Auto Industry only has made BS VI migration a reality against all odds.

Emission Norms of these new vehicles are now at par with Europe, meeting one of the most stringent emission norms globally. In fact, the emission norms of all models of Two-Wheelers in India is ahead of Europe (2021) and Japan (2022), and India is the First country across the world, to adopt this level of emission norms. More than 1,000 models and variants of BS IV were to be developed to BS VI Emission Norms in just 3 years, and the industry in the process is investing to the tune of Rs 70,000 Crores for this achievement.

Mr Rajan Wadhera, President SIAM said “It is unprecedented anywhere in the world to switch to such stringent emission regime on one single day, for all categories of vehicles including, Two-Wheelers, Three-Wheelers, Passenger Vehicles, Trucks and Buses. I do compliment my fellow industry colleagues for this outstanding achievement in meeting BS VI emission norms despite facing huge challenges of technology, time and resources.”

[longhorn]

Well technically it may be called an achievement, but is it an achievement in the true sense. I don't think so. Why? Well, discontinuing a bulk of models that used to be staple diet because you could not to upgrade the motor to BS 6 levels is not an achievement in my books. Almost all manufacturers had to discontinue a bulk of their diesel variants because they couldn't conform to BS 6 norms. This is more like barely there because the law mandated it more than anything else.

[audioholic]

Originally Posted by vsrivatsa

So its 01 Apr 2020, are Bunks all around the country offering BS VI Fuel? What a way to enter into the BS VI Era !
.

I heard from my friend working in BPCL that almost all BPCL outlets were already dispensing BS6 petrol while most of the metro outlets were dispensing BS6 diesel in March itself. Not sure of the latest update or coverage. This is just what he mentioned over a phone call but nothing on paper yet.