[lurker]

Originally Posted by darklord

Looks like Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has other plans:

IOC, BPCL, HPCL ink $40 bn deal to set up world’s largest refinery, petrochemical complex
http://www.financialexpress.com/indu...omplex/718639/

Not necessarily applicable to urban transport sector. Whole range of sectors will still be dependent on refined oil even post 2030.

1. Agriculture: diesel pumps, tractors, gensets
2. Shipping: big marine diesels
3. Defence: tanks, telars, reconnaisance, fighters, transport airplanes.
4. Civil Aviation: ATF will still be dominant
6. Power Sector: There will still be diesel gensets, naphta power turbines in critical peak load applications

Only personal transportation in big cities, towns, and offgrid villages need to turn totally to electric and electric hybrid/CNG by 2030.

[V.Narayan]

They consume too much fuel.
These engines simply do not have the range needed.
They will cause too much pollution.
The engines require too many exotic minerals (today known as rare earths) to be mass produced.
The MTBO (Mean Time Between Overhaul) is poor.
The weight of the fuel is so high that there is not enough carrying capacity left for an economic payload.

Comments in 2017 on Electric Cars on T_BHP?? .....read on....

They will frighten the passengers.
The runways are not long enough.
They are way too expensive - the average airline cannot afford them.
Airports will not invest in the infrastructure to accommodate them.
(and my favourite) Why would any one want to risk flying across the Atlantic when you can sail across in the comfort of an ocean liner.

Go into the detailed history of aviation and these are comments from old (very old) magazines on whether jet engines should be introduced to airliners. These comments are all from the late 1940s. They sound very similar to comments today on electric cars.

An analogy from my profession -in 1950 aero engines were primarily pistons with the turbo-compound being at the leading edge and many top airliners (DC-6, DC-7, Constellation, Convair 440) persisted on with them. For that era they were reliable and had very good F.E. . Turbine power (ie Jets) had come into the military by mid-1940s and through the Rolls Royce Dart turbo prop engine to commercial airliners by 1953 but the pistons continued to dominate. In 2 years between 1959 and 1961 the first generation jet airliners (Boeing 707, Douglas DC-8, Caravelle) so over took the market, in one sweep, that the prime piston engine fleets of 1958 became the secondary fleet of 1961 and the cargo fleet of 1964. The change was sudden and complete. And mind you the fuel efficiency of the early jets was poor compared to the pistons but speed, passenger comfort, vibrations, cabin noise all won the day. I know retail market for cars is different but sharing a concept of how an idea whose time has come can sweep the floor.

I am not arguing here about how green is the source of original power or how the used batteries will be disposed or recycled. These are real issues and cannot be wished away. But the power of economics and law will bring about these changes eventually in a mere 20 years.

As many of us are trying to predict what will happen on E.V.'s I conclude with philosophical quotes from two leading men from my profession.

"I confess that in 1901, I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for fifty years… . Ever since, I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions."

— Wilbur Wright, in a speech to the Aero Club of France, 5 November 1908.

"Science has not yet mastered prophecy. We predict too much for the next year and yet far too little for the next ten."

— Neil Armstrong, speech to joint session of Congress, 16 September 1969

[swetank7]

As already explained electricity by solar panel feeding to grid will be easy due to lower cost of infrastructure and better throughput due to technology evolution over a period. Once combined this with energy storage and charging station availability electric vehicles will be very feasible.

Things that need to be solved are
1. Infra creation for charging stations. This means rules and laws for (STD/ISD like booths) retailers.
2. Fast charging solutions. (expensive infra is still ok since people will recover the cost periodically when clubbed by incentives via loans)
3. Rare earth material issues
4. recycling issues of Lithium batteries.
5. heavy vehicle technology for trucks and tractors, excavators etc.
6. Grid robustness to ensure high availability
7. power management for low solar energy areas (cloudy)



What will this bring
1. Very high reduction of noise pollution due to no noise from engine
2. horn volume could also be reduced since the ambient noise itself is low. (Tricky)
3. Difference engineering and maintenance skills and job creation.
4. Reduction of the ambient temperature of roads.

[AltoLXI]

Gadkari warns automakers to switch to clean vehicles or be 'bulldozed'

"We should move towards alternative fuel... I am going to do this, whether you like it or not. And I am not going to ask you. I will bulldoze it. For pollution, for imports, my ideas are crystal clear... The government has a crystal-clear policy to reduce imports and curb pollution," Gadkari said at SIAM's annual convention here.

http://www.business-standard.com/art...0700867_1.html

[pgsagar]

Just back from a North American trip. Although never an EV fan, I was floored by a Tesla ride in US recently. Silent, it may be like any electric car, but what a scorcher it is. And, in Canada, saw a friend take delivery of just released Chevy Bolt for his wife on 1st Sept. Though I didn't drive, but saw it accelerate excellently with 5 up in this tiny car. He said although the car cost almost 40 thousand Canadian, he would get back around 13,000 from Govt. as a reward for going electric. Now, that's incentive. I don't think we would ever see such a scenario here.

[Reinhard]

A very blunt remark together with quite good thoughts from the union minister Mr. Gadkari.

Times Of India news link

If indeed it gets followed up with sensible ground up planning & actions at all levels rather than just words for press coverage then it will be really something good for the future obviously. About time the government pulled out the stick!

[JayPrashanth]

Perfect. Hit hybrid cars with massive taxes instead of incentivizing them, and then talk about jumping to electric in one shot. And the same dude said he won't 'allow' driverless cars in India because they'll take away employment. :-P

Cheers,

Jay

[Intelsingh]

Electric Vehicles means surplus energy in the country along with waste management system in place for the batteries. A long shot in my opinion.

They can start with managing existing vehicles and their emissions. Cleaner fuel and better engines. Not nagging, but it's easier to talk utopia and a different game to have a sustainable strategy in place.

[yatin]

His statements are well-worded; I think it is right to suspect a sugar mill owner will promote ethanol replacing petrol rather than electric replacing all. That would be practical too, since electric cars with lead acid batteries would be sub-optimal & pervasive lithium-based vehicles are estimated to need 5 times the current global lithium supply! http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-e...le19519844.ece

[Intelsingh]

The only thing I can remember from this article is how there was a ban of over 2L engines in diesel in Delhi. All the automobile giants with way cleaner engines like Audi, JLR and the likes could not achieve sales while the Mahindras and Tatas made money.

[Chetan_Rao]

Actions speak louder than words, and the talk doesn't match the walk.

Sorry, Mr. Minister.

[Durango Dude]

India always does things in reverse! Wonder how our lawmakers eat?? When I bought my first car way back in the early 90's it was fitted with a cat-con; at that time unleaded fuel was a 'novelty' available on in urban centre's and we were forced to carry a can when we make outstation trips. This same pompous minister must have first incentivised Hybrid's instead of taxing them heavily in the GST regime.

[Sawyer]

This is just the latest shot at a masterly move.

Let's see what has happened to earlier ones:
1. Clean toilets?
2. Clean Ganga?
3. Clean India?
4. Clean currency?
5. More jobs?
6. Inclusive growth?
7. Better days?

It will take time for everyone in India - leaders and the led - to understand that these things simply cannot be achieved top down by diktats and ordinances. That all that leaders can do is create the conditions that will motivate/educate the led to achieve these. But that changes the politician paradigm from leadership/power to public service/humility.

As to the power situation, it is so bad that it is a sick joke. Consider these amazing paradoxes:
1. We generate as much of 30% of total power via renewables - 10% Solar/Wind and 20% hydro. Quite good!
2. Installed capacity is more than demand today - many power plants are running at 50% capacity because of no demand. I discovered this recently, and I was shocked.
3. On the other hand the market for DG sets is doubling every 5 years, and projected to do so for the next 5.
4. Power theft is rampant to the extent bill collectors are murdered.
5. Power supply in most cities is unreliable and when available, often damages connected loads because of fluctuations - the reason for DG set proliferation.

I won't be surprised to see charging stations in cities with back up DG sets installed next to them, in the way these are installed for cell phone towers. Anything is possible in Incredible India.

Before this EV bandwagon is trumpeted, it is necessary to fix the broken supply chain for power. And on the consumption side, it is necessary to have massive construction of public transport infrastructure that works. But like no one talks about motivational tax reform to reduce the need for creation of black wealth, no one talks about these requirements either.

Bringing out big sticks is the method of the day. Jugaad is the public response.

[drashkum]

In today morning papers. The Union minister wants car sales to slow down, especially diesel cars so that he need not add another lane on the road it seems. He wants vehicles to run on ethanol so that people can buy fuel off the wineshop shelves and drink and make their car drink too.
Mr. Gadkari, there is no need of new lane if you optimise the present roads. Half of the arterial roads are encroached, there are only 70ft roads on pretext of 100ft roads.

[Sawyer]

Anyone that has travelled in Western Europe beyond airport transits knows the value of high quality public transport infrastructure, where there is a network of excellent trains for intercity travel and buses/trams/underground for in city movement. Tourists don't need to use cars, and even residents, if they choose to do so, need not have a car, without being inconvenienced. Indeed, a car can be extremely inconvenient at times, if not impossible.

The consequent reduced usage of cars isn't done by talking big sticks, but by creating an environment where these are either not needed or are not convenient.

Has the minister thought of this when he says that the growth of the car industry hurts him in his heart and he will seek to put a brake on that growth because otherwise soon he will have to add more lanes to all the highways he is busy constructing? If that is done without creating an alternative route of movement of people and goods, this brake will also be a brake on GDP and jobs growth in general - while the auto industry today, directly and indirectly is reported to account for 40% of GDP, not a trivial thing and seeking to curb the growth of cars and trucks will thus deal a double whammy for the economy.

In any case, I doubt this will be more than just hot air like all the other things that come out from any government that is in power. All talk and no show.

PS: excellent point in the preceding point about encroachment on roads - similar to power theft in some ways.