[sngautam]

I'm an eternal optimist. 15 years is a long time for any technology. India has invested a lot in Solar in the recent. There have been talks about moving towards sustainable energies. IMO, EVs (or Solar Vehicles) are the way to go forward. Now we might no reach there in 2030 but it is a great vision to have nonetheless. Even if we get 10% or 20% or 30%, that is still a good adoption number. Everything is demand based. If people start to see the benefits of EVs, they'll move towards it. The other way to push demand for EVs is to ban IC based cars completely. We've already seen Diesel vehicles over 2000cc getting banned in Delhi. There are times when I feel like cycling to office, but I dread the pollution. With EVs, pollution levels would come down. At 100% EV, no vehicular pollution on the roads.

Musk confirmed last night that they'll launch Model 3 in India.

http://techcrunch.com/2016/03/31/new...lobal-markets/

Now Model 3 will launch in US at the end of 2017 and in India probably closer to 2020. Knowing Tesla, they might make Superchargers in India as well. Where would the electricity come from, I do not know yet. But this is a good move nonetheless. We need more and more automobile makers to get into EVs. Once they decide to move based on the demand, where to get the electricity from would be answered as the govt would be bound to get it. Money spent on Oil would move to generating electricity. I'm hoping for this to come true.

Lets all chuck ICs and GO GREEN!!!

[hybridpetrol]

This is completely achievable - with a great deal of commitment from Government towards this, and of course some orientation from public towards it.
Take for example a nation like China - we can see electric scooters everywhere. Nobody drives a petrol commuter bike to office and back. They prefer an electric bike if they cannot afford, or do not want to drive a car. This change came up quite quickly in their history.
Our Government needs to invest heavily in promoting the road infrastructure and charging infrastructure before any of such things take off here.
Our current electric two wheelers are as expensive as any decent petrol bike - after the Government subsidies, but they suffer a lot of problems such as poor battery range, poor charging infrastructure, domestic voltage problems, etc - leaving aside the horrible designs of these vehicles. They need a real push from Government, and we need large players investing heavily and promoting the electric vehicles.

[shashanka]

Originally Posted by AWD

A dream far fetched! Its a good step but easier said than done. If they intend to lead the World & not follow, why depend solely on Electricity which already is inadequate. Why not try to tap other renewable energy resources viz. Solar, Hydrogen, etx.
With such changing policies I'd we wary of plonking big cash on present breed of vehicles.

Just so! Why not tap other sources of alternate energy? Why not indeed? A couple of years ago there was a good deal of media exposure regarding the advantages of bio-fuels for a large country like India - particularly jatropha. With its inherent advantage of having a small carbon foot-print because it was, in essence, re-releasing the same ingredients back into the environment, it seemed a good idea. In fact Mercedes India carried out a feasibility study by running a fleet of jatropha powered C-class sedans from Kanyakumari to Kashmir - satisfactorily. And then it died a sudden death. Such hiccups on the energy conservation front is characteristic of our pundits!

[sgiitk]

I am just wondering Power Min talking of switch to EVs and the PM visiting Tesla. Is there is link - Tesla assembly plant, cuts in duties and taxes, etc. At the moment Tesla may be the only viable EV for anything more than town running. Yes, Mahindra will sell some for the latter, but Tesla is the big boy!

[srishiva]

I wonder why our domestic car makers are not able to lobby our govt and get some sops to push EVs into the mainstream.
Its also glaring that no one is actually serious about 2 wheelers. These are the vehicles that make the biggest impact since they move this country.

Coming to the use of precious metals etc in EVs, if the price doesnt reflect that, I wouldn't be too much worried. 35K for a car before sops doesn't reflect that. In addition, I guess most of the things are recyclable.

[aLY]

A report published by World Health Organization (WHO) in December 2014 states that 13 out of 20 most polluted cities in the world are from India.Delhi tops the chart and has six times the levels of airborne particulate matter than are considered safe.

Also, Its a fact that the number of radio cabs in our cities are growing exponentially after the entry of global player Uber in 2013. OLA is claiming that they are alone doing more than a million rides per day. The number of KM covered per day by OLA, Uber and Meru combined with other small operators is humongous and most of these rides are happening in city limits adding to city concentrated pollution.

As a early step towards the 100% EV mobility Government should take an action to guide the operators to introduce EV taxis at the least for city limits to help reducing pollution in cities.

I believe a range of approximately 250Km will be OK for a taxi, Your views?

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by srishiva

I
...
Its also glaring that no one is actually serious about 2 wheelers. These are the vehicles that make the biggest impact since they move this country.
...

Completely agree. The other problem is that the current set of electric two-wheelers are wimpy and badly designed. Almost all (that I'm aware of) use lead acid batteries that deteriorate rapidly with use. The 'paisa vasool' customers have learnt to keep away from these. I think the Reva group would do well to incorporate some of their knowhow into electric two wheelers - but then cost is a big problem.

I am surprised as you that HD and Triumph have invaded India with their oversized and overpriced bikes, but Zero with "nearly" affordable bikes has not even showcased them here.

[sgiitk]

I can best react by the following quote:

Hope springs eternal in the human breast;
Man never is, but always to be blessed:
The soul, uneasy and confined from home,
Rests and expatiates in a life to come.

– Alexander Pope, An Essay on Man

All we can say is that Hybrids will come to play an increasing role. Unless we get Tesla (there are no equivalents) since the competition buys critical components from them I see no hope. Mahindra is a good starter but no more. Remember getting Tesla will require the service infrastructure of theirs since they do not operate on a dealership/franchisee model.

[vinya_jag]

I think this will happen, in another 15-20 years.
Go back 15 years(1999), and we had seen the launch of the two new exciting cars, the Atoz and the Matiz, and our own Mini Tata. How much has the scene changed today.

Pollution is severe in most cities. Traffic problems are even worse. Pollution might not drive SIAM away, but traffic will. Who are the major car buyers? They are our cities. And the cities are chocked.

No new roads, fly overs can help us. Mass transit and bicycles can. CNG Autos and Taxis are already plying on our roads.

All I need is a subsidy in buying a small electric car/ Bike, and some more subsidy in installing solar panels atop my house, and I will buy the leaf as my next car. The shift can happen.

But, who can stop it from happening? It is the SIAM, or our car manufacturers.

How fast can Indian automotive industry do the switch?
How soon Europe and other markets where we export our cars do the alternate fuel switch? Europe will have done it by 2030, but Europe is not the major export factor for Indian made cars, but they eventually will. Africa and SEA will eventually get there. In a couple of years, India will make Electric/ Hybrid cars, just for export. And soon, it will be sold in India too.
The same SIAM will then push the govt to give more subsidies on electric cars, and today they are crying that diesel is the best thing that happened to Indian automotive scene.

[mvadg]

Do we have to go the Tesla way?
Cant we do this:




Battery tech is far behind and that is the most expensive component in the long term. We could just use electric buses meanwhile. Some R&D organizations have even powered vehicles using inductive loops embedded in the road.

A double-deck trolleybus in Reading, England, 1966

[kbishwa]

The things are really not far. Present technology based on petroleum products would be a thing of past!

For India the target year is 2030 (and by then no confusion of difference between Financial Year and Calendar year would remain). So it is 1st Jan, 2030.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/a...w/58441171.cms

So the questions like: should I buy petrol or diesel car would be a passe!

And, you will find many entrepreneurs like Elon Musk selling desi version of Teslas.

And the contenders are so many, not only battery-operated vehicles. Many hybrids of solar, wind, and Hydrogen Cell based cars would be there. So what:

1. Present automobile industry would need to catch up to avoid a Kodak case. Really fast.

2. On the same line, major long term investments by OEMs to be tuned accordingly.

3. Petroleum companies, who are also one of big employment generators, need to foresee the change. Petrol pumps would incarnate as charging stations.

4. Universities would have to plan their courses (engineering courses particularly) in that line.

Few more things will happen:

a. There will be no need of Odd-Even types of rules. Our grand generations would be less prone to air-pollution, sound-pollution and likes.

b. Much cheaper to run and maintain. Well, for higher fixed cost expect subsidies in the form of promotions from the government.

c. Less dependence on imports and savings on foreign-exchange.

The future e-vehicles would be much smarter and far better than present breed. Innovation in storage media would lead to many other changes including that in Power Industry which is mostly dependent on fossil fuels. Together they would co-invent for the storage breakthrough. Let's welcome the new era. Let's start polishing our mindset!

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by kbishwa

The things are really not far. Present technology based on petroleum products would be a thing of past!

The future e-vehicles would be much smarter and far better than present breed. Innovation in storage media would lead to many other changes including that in Power Industry which is mostly dependent on fossil fuels. Together they would co-invent for the storage breakthrough. Let's welcome the new era. Let's start polishing our mindset!

Well said. Right now fans of electrics are not many on T-BHP. There will be many arguments of where the electricity is being sourced from, land pollution caused by batteries etc. I believe in 30 years a lot of these will be solved. The current coal burning, petroleum guzzling life is not sustainable. A lot can change in 30 years. 30 years ago India's GDP was 10th largest today it is 5th largest even at market exchange rates; in 1987 the Maruti M800 was a sought after upper class car; the www.com had not been invented; the first wave of 2-wheeler collaborations -Hero Honda, TVS Suzuki etc had just got going and today we are the largest 2-wheeler market in the world; land lines were precious assets that you waited 2 to 3 years for.....

[agambhandari]

2030 for India is a very aggressive target, IMHO.

Almost too aggressive. I study community medicine in my medical college and India has set several such targets to control a disease, eliminate a micro organism etc. And to nobody's surprise it has failed, several times at that. But then it resets the target and gets there eventually sometimes even 10-15 years later and more 3 revisions of the target.

This petroleum issue seems eerily similar to that. Its a disease that needs to be taken care of and put to rest. With the new hypercars, its very clear that petrol's role is going down in future, even for an enthusiast. And for a daily driver, it makes tremendous sense.

BUT, this is India right here. An india which boasts of multiple dams and wind farms but still depends on the burning Coal to get the major chunk of its electricity. Until at least they go nuclear(which by the way is still not renewable) and we have a power surplus, electric is not the answer for India.
I know, we are building a number of largest wind farms ever on this planet, but multiple steps like that is going to take time. I would love to be proven wrong, for nothing is certain.

And even if we get rid of the petroleum, electric is probably still not the complete answer. In my opinion, the other piece of the puzzle is Hydrogen. Imagine a road trip where you have to stop every 300 kms for 20 min to charge your car, you wouldn't want to(imagine this on a road where you could have gone 50-60kms in that time). Hydrogen Range extended plug in hybrids are the ultimate answer.

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by agambhandari

2030 for India is a very aggressive target, IMHO.

While it does seem aggressive but every time petrol prices rise, the scale tips in favour of electric vehicles and it is given that fuel prices are only going to rise.

I did some back of the envelope calculations for my monthly run of 650 kms from home to office on humble activa and looks as though I stand to save over 11k in a year by using an electric scooter!! I could replace batteries every year and still be able to save significant cost!

BUT, this is India right here. An india which boasts of multiple dams and wind farms but still depends on the burning Coal to get the major chunk of its electricity.

The reason we need conventional coal is because Solar is not ready to scale as fast as our energy demands are growing. The other reason being that solar/wind/hydel are not 24x7 available and hence need to be supported by conventional sources.

Until at least they go nuclear(which by the way is still not renewable) and we have a power surplus, electric is not the answer for India.

We are power surplus now. The fact that distribution companies are too bankrupt to buy electricity is different thing altogether.

Imagine a road trip where you have to stop every 300 kms for 20 min to charge your car

While electric vehicles are not ideal today for long trips but then neither are those puny hatchbacks which we find commonly on the highways.

If electric vehicles are able to serve purpose for majority of the commute, they should get adopted pretty quickly.

[mayjay]

Originally Posted by shashanka

Just so! Why not tap other sources of alternate energy? Why not indeed? A couple of years ago there was a good deal of media exposure regarding the advantages of bio-fuels for a large country like India - particularly jatropha. With its inherent advantage of having a small carbon foot-print because it was, in essence, re-releasing the same ingredients back into the environment, it seemed a good idea. In fact Mercedes India carried out a feasibility study by running a fleet of jatropha powered C-class sedans from Kanyakumari to Kashmir - satisfactorily. And then it died a sudden death. Such hiccups on the energy conservation front is characteristic of our pundits!

It's been quite some time since Jatropha was in the news. I recall studies at IOC and also at multiple engineering colleges in India, with it being substituted for diesel, to test the effectiveness. While the fuel itself was not the problem, there were issues in jatropha yields, meaning that it could not scale up to the extent required. It basically fell out of orbit after that.
Also not sure to what extent it was able to reduce the pollution aspect since it is still relying on combustion as a power source.