[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by subuiyer

The last time I looked the government was earning lakhs of crores in taxes on hydrocarbon fuels.

While the government does collect significant taxes on fuel, it also spends massive chunk on foreign exchange buying crude oil. By moving towards electric vehicles, electricity can be produced locally using Indian coal and renewable energy sources in India. The savings in foreign exchange outgo should be able to significantly offset the loss of taxes.

Originally Posted by mpksuhas

While availability of power is one issue, my issue with electrical vehicles is with the source of power generation.

If coal is what you are worried about then significant development has happened in thermal power plant technology to improve the efficiency. Coal power plants are only going to become better and due to renewables, older power plants will keep getting shut down hence improving the overall power generation footprint.

[mayankk]

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

While the government does collect significant taxes on fuel, it also spends massive chunk on foreign exchange buying crude oil. By moving towards electric vehicles, electricity can be produced locally using Indian coal and renewable energy sources in India. The savings in foreign exchange outgo should be able to significantly offset the loss of taxes.

Isnt the government already saving the "chunks" of Forex since taxes on fuel are constantly rising while the price of crude is much lower than what it was 3-4 years ago?

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

As for taxes, they are collected in INR so how do they help in Forex scenario?

??? Why would they have ane bearing on Forex scenario?
Its a god awful amount, and unfair, and it reasonably be directed to a proper plan, pilots, and trials for the electric car pipedream. No indication of that.

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by mayankk

Isnt the government already saving the "chunks" of Forex since taxes on fuel are constantly rising while the price of crude is much lower than what it was 3-4 years ago?

Yes, the Forex being spent is less due to lower crude prices but government doesn't have any protection against future potential price rise. Ideal scenario would be to limit exposure to such fluctuations by reducing dependency on imported crude. As for taxes, they are collected in INR so how do they help in Forex scenario?

[hkollar]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

Where in your opinion is the constraint in having a car with a solar panel on top of it so that it can run for free once the purchase price is paid? Obviously, you think these constraints will disappear in just ten years, so I am very curious to know what you think these are.

Car with a solar panel on top of it? I didn't say that. I was talking of Rooftop Solar that will become commonplace in next decade (due to fall in price of solar). People will produce electricity at their homes/offices and consume it locally. Check the solar PV price graph, and it is self-evident.

Originally Posted by octane_100

IMO, the date 2030 is just a wish list, nothing more nothing less. India may become power surplus soon but somebody should do the math on how many vehicles get sold every year, their cumulative running and the kWh equivalent of the same and then see if we can produce enough electricity to meet that demand!

Also, EV's don't have tail pipe emission which is great for the local environment. But what about battery production and disposal? What about power generation? Saying that nuclear is a "clean fuel" is oxymoron with the kind of risks involved, which have been reminded by the Fukushima disaster.

Lithium-ion batteries are 100% recycle-able. i.e. Lithium from the battery can be re-extracted and a new battery can be made from that.

Nuclear power has risks involved. But, it is no where close to the risk of 100% people inhaling Nox, CO etc. A hydro project also has a risk.

Flying an Airplane has a risk too (some folks have fear of flying).. But, statistics show you are far more likely to die in a road accident than air accident.

Same is true for atomic power. You are more likely to die due to Fossil fuel emission induced troubles than nuclear accident. More people die every year due to fossil pollution than the number of people who died due to nuclear accident in entire existence. IT IS RELATIVELY SAFER.

Do read more about the failure at Fukushima and how many people actually died (or impacted) due to it. It was a freak accident, and first one to have happened after Chernobyl. Yet ZERO people died due to radiation. 34 died due to troubles related with evacuation+stress. 6 workers have exceeded lifetime limit of radiation (likely to have troubles in future). It is estimated a few hundred people will get cancer in their lifetime due to Fukushima.

Now - Count the number of people who die in various other type of powers. Nuclear & hydro power have least number of death per each Trillion KWh generated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy...nts#Fatalities

<b>Easy to be taken in by Fear, Uncertainty &Doubt. But, better to verify facts.</b>

Originally Posted by Sawyer

I don't see the advent of cars running on solar panels on their roofs in even 15 years. The tech just isn't there to reach that kind of performance. It would be lovely if it was, I have no doubts on that score!

15yrs is a long time. Typically more than 1/3rd of your productive life. Tech on the other hand changes fast.

Solar PV module prices:
2007 - $3.4 / watt
2017 - $0.7 / watt

Cost of PV reduced by 5 times in 10yrs. Solar PV is silicon technology and is likely to keep reducing. If by 2027 we have 1/3rd the price for Rooftop installation, You cost per Kwh (one unit) will be way less than what we pay for grid power today.

In fact, Rooftop solar power is already cheaper than grid, if you can bear the initial expense. The trouble is with energy storage. But, Electric Vehicle already has storage!

Originally Posted by Sawyer

Every Thursday the DG set still runs for 8-10 hours and occasionally on other days, and in general DG sets/inverters/UPS is even today a fast growing sector in India.

Human mind is not attuned to change. It is more comfortable in linear progression than exponential progression. So, it is natural to think the current state will remain somewhat similar in future state.

Technology doesn't work like that. It disrupts severely. It reaches a point when all other technology & struggles look weird.

Originally Posted by dark.knight

Let me remain on the side of the pessimists,

Sure. Most people are...

Originally Posted by dark.knight

Its unimaginable what would happen if the city faces a sudden surge of demand in power via the plug for the vehicles (Bangalore is 2nd only to Delhi with 4.1 million vehicles), imagine if 100% of the vehicles stood in line to suck the power from the grid.

The demand is surging nevertheless. An efficient EV needs about 1unit of power to drive between 5km-10km (E2O gives me 10km/kwh).

Typical Indian drives between 20-40km a day. i.e 4units of power per day.

My household average power consumption per month before E2O was 600units. Average after E2O is about 640units. If I had more power hungry car (like Nissan Leaf) it may have gone to 700units.

It is a myth that Electric cars will put huge load on Grid. US studies estimate that overall additional grid capacity needed will be in the range of 10-15%.

We have more demand for power coming from other growth (like Airconditioners).

Originally Posted by dark.knight

We're not naysayers, we just want to see balance in what happens on earth, every action has ecologically-destructive consequences.. the key is to think 10 times before moving forward.. the ecological toll to scrap every fuel-burning car in India will do 100 times the damage than if they were to remain, the key is slow transition over 30-40 years, ensuring that every purchased vehicle gets their time in the sun. Will be happy to provide dozens upon dozens of links to those who want to know more via PM or if allowed, here as well (don't want to come off as overly pessimistic, you see).

Naysayers who refuse that title!!

I am amazed you say scrapping polluting internal cumbustion engines will be 'econological disaster'. How so?

Originally Posted by Sawyer

In Pune, I use an AC, only at night, for just 2 months in a year. I use my car every day.

You are atypical. Most of the new ACs come up, will run for over 200days in a year. In fact, in office blocks they will run 250days a year.

Originally Posted by dark.knight

The point isn't setting up power capacity, it is about having it reliably available at charging points everywhere.

EXACTLY. sort of chicken and egg, but when the advantages outweigh, infrastructure gets created.

Originally Posted by dark.knight

Everything is doable with concerted effort, but I don't see any plans for all the concerted efforts beyond the nice sounding vision statements that will be needed for this to happen.

Story of India. However, I believe it is different in this case. Because, it won't be the govt. that will drive this change...

Technology is moving so fast - people will be surprised when the change actually happens.

Can you think of the day when there was no internet or mobile phone?

[Sawyer]

Time will tell; it isn't long to wait. Just as far forward as 2004 is behind us. Which I can remember like it was yesterday; instead of a smartphone I used a BlackBerry to manage my emails. With an equally dysfunctional solar panel on my roof as in my new apartment today.

[Sawyer]

Digressing just a little off topic, my preceding post got me thinking about what has changed in my life in an Indian city from 2004 to 2017; the same time it will take for 2030 to dawn. I found very little that has, after a lot of thinking of all I was able to do in 2004. Just as a coincidence, 2004 was the time of the failed electioneering slogan, India Shining.

If anything has changed, it has changed for the worse in my life. Road congestion is worse, parking is a huge problem, road rage has increased, summers are hotter, and the air is dirtier as is every holiday destination in India that I go to. To some extent, this is offset by not having to use the roads, because online shopping is definitely a radical change for the better. And to a smaller extent, not having to rely on the cable TV mafia and their ugly wires! I won't go into the things were cheaper story because so were incomes lower.

Overall, I am really struggling to identify what I can do today in India that I could not do just as well, or just as easily or cheaply in 2004. And it isn't that my financial status has changed by an order of magnitude in the time.

I don't like or use social media in general, so there is that caveat. Of course, passing time on TBHP was not an option then:-).

[Sawyer]

I am not sure I have been able to find a reason why India - if Mr Goyal is to be believed - wants to be 100% EV in the first place.

If it is mainly for global warming/clean air, then EV is a very partial solution if one gives Bill Gates some credibility, see: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...iracle/407881/

Irrespective of whether all that he says is true, I for one cannot see that kind of thinking coming from our ministers/bureaucrats. If they could think on those lines, they would almost certainly not be holding down those jobs today. And this isn't just an Indian issue, as Gates points out, it is true of the breed globally.

[mayjay]

Let's hear the reasons why this will fail.

India’s electric vehicle revolution will begin with auto-rickshaws running on swappable batteries:

Link:
https://qz.com/1001518/indias-electr...ble-batteries/

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by hkollar

It is a myth that Electric cars will put huge load on Grid. US studies estimate that overall additional grid capacity needed will be in the range of 10-15%.

We have more demand for power coming from other growth (like Airconditioners).
Story of India. However, I believe it is different in this case. Because, it won't be the govt. that will drive this change...

Technology is moving so fast - people will be surprised when the change actually happens.

Can you think of the day when there was no internet or mobile phone?

Originally Posted by mayjay

Let's hear the reasons why this will fail.

India’s electric vehicle revolution will begin with auto-rickshaws running on swappable batteries:

Link:
https://qz.com/1001518/indias-electr...ble-batteries/

Gentlemen, thank you for putting up facts with optimism. Rants are easy.

After almost 4 decades as an adult I am more optimistic about our country than ever before. I am not qualified to opine on how the power supply needs will be met or how the battery disposal will be met. But hey we'll solve them in our own slow fumbling way - famines, shortages, dishonest elections, low growth economy, license raj (but not inspector raj) have all fallen by the way side. I am sure we will stumble and get to this goal if not by 2030 then by 2040. And Mayjay you are absolutely right. The change will be a ground swell from the bottom of the chain. The pessimists assume that everything needs to be done by the Govt.

[hkollar]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

I am not sure I have been able to find a reason why India - if Mr Goyal is to be believed - wants to be 100% EV in the first place.

If it is mainly for global warming/clean air, then EV is a very partial solution if one gives Bill Gates some credibility, see: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...iracle/407881/

Irrespective of whether all that he says is true, I for one cannot see that kind of thinking coming from our ministers/bureaucrats. If they could think on those lines, they would almost certainly not be holding down those jobs today. And this isn't just an Indian issue, as Gates points out, it is true of the breed globally.

Bill gates was talking about how energy transformation is essential, and we are at the cusp of such a miracle. If solar power goes cheaper even by half from what it is today, GRID power can't compete on cost. For the simple reason Grid transmission costs/losses will be more expensive than locally generated solar. I am not talking of solar fields here. People will generate their own power in a decade - it will be as common as having a TV at home. The reason transportation and energy industry will change is because of the technology - not government.

Talking of Bill Gates predictions, he also predicted we will never build 32bit computers and internet being a passing fad !!

[maddy42]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

Another point that needs to be made is that electric cars are no solution to the road congestion that gets worse every year in every city - for driving as well as for parking owned cars.

Should there first be the massive upgrading of public transport infrastructure everywhere that is the only solution to this problem, allied to creation of jobs in a way that reduces migration to the cities?

And surplus power generating capacity, if it exists in reality, should be used to first curtail the growth of the DG set market and then towards their elimination by making them unnecessary.

And of course, Indian Railways needs to be 100% electrified; no diesel electric locos.

The number of metros being implemented right now is phenomenon in our country. Just do check the link here to get more clarity: http://themetrorailguy.com/

Also the indian railways has stopped making new train route announcements and are currently concentrating on the infrastructure end of schemes. They are targeting to electrify more routes and rely on the grid to improve their power situation. Even the famous power plant in maharastra is being made operational(dahbol i believe). Water audit and solar panels on stations are being implemented. 400 stations will be remodelled to modernize the same.

Originally Posted by Sawyer

Digressing just a little off topic, my preceding post got me thinking about what has changed in my life in an Indian city from 2004 to 2017; the same time it will take for 2030 to dawn. I found very little that has, after a lot of thinking of all I was able to do in 2004. Just as a coincidence, 2004 was the time of the failed electioneering slogan, India Shining.

I don't like or use social media in general, so there is that caveat. Of course, passing time on TBHP was not an option then:-).

I come from a rural area of the country and can list some stuff which has changed. More indians travel today, tourism within the country has improved. You can count the number of people on your friends circle who has at least done the ladakh route or traveled abroad. Airline travel has become common place in comparison to 2004. Prices for sure have gone up but mobile phones in the hands of the poorest of the poor is common place. Also we are talking of a decade. Phones went from the brick of 1100 to Iphones or flat screens. Tv sizes changed and definitely waist size of indians has increased.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Gentlemen, thank you for putting up facts with optimism. Rants are easy.

After almost 4 decades as an adult I am more optimistic about our country than ever before. I am not qualified to opine on how the power supply needs will be met or how the battery disposal will be met. But hey we'll solve them in our own slow fumbling way - famines, shortages, dishonest elections, low growth economy, license raj (but not inspector raj) have all fallen by the way side. I am sure we will stumble and get to this goal if not by 2030 then by 2040. And Mayjay you are absolutely right. The change will be a ground swell from the bottom of the chain. The pessimists assume that everything needs to be done by the Govt.

Thank you sir! Things are changing and i am on the hope side. It takes a lot of effort to move the elephant which is india and i do see variety of changes happening to acheive this goal. Couple of years ago we would never have dreamed of a single party in power!

Maddy

[Sawyer]

Originally Posted by hkollar

Talking of Bill Gates predictions, he also predicted we will never build 32bit computers and internet being a passing fad !!

Gates also did a strategy course correction in the mid nineties that is well known in business circles for its speed and decisiveness on Microsoft's internet business approaches. Almost overnight the company made a 180 degree turn that allowed it to change its focus from the desktop to fully exploit the age of the internet in spite of the head start enjoyed by Netscape Navigator.

And while he can go wrong, he is a very smart person that has to also have learnt a lot in the last 20 years, so reading what he has to say is a learning experience for me for sure, because I am no where as smart as him.

Moving to solar, I am not fully conversant with the tech, but as I understand it the problem is more than just cost; it is the size of panels needed to generate an X amount of energy. There isn't enough place on the terraces of apartment blocks to generate enough energy for the apartment complex to go off grid, so even if the panels were free, that isn't a solution to having a dependable grid. Or so I understand.

[hkollar]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

Gates also did a strategy course correction in the mid nineties that is well known in business circles for its speed and decisiveness on Microsoft's internet business approaches. Almost overnight the company made a 180 degree turn that allowed it to change its focus from the desktop to fully exploit the age of the internet in spite of the head start enjoyed by Netscape Navigator.

And while he can go wrong, he is a very smart person that has to also have learnt a lot in the last 20 years, so reading what he has to say is a learning experience for me for sure, because I am no where as smart as him.

Moving to solar, I am not fully conversant with the tech, but as I understand it the problem is more than just cost; it is the size of panels needed to generate an X amount of energy. There isn't enough place on the terraces of apartment blocks to generate enough energy for the apartment complex to go off grid, so even if the panels were free, that isn't a solution to having a dependable grid. Or so I understand.

I respect Bill Gates too. I was saying - even he hasn't been able to see the disruptions.

Solar PV efficiency (not cost) has been increasing too. 20 years back we had about 5% of solar energy being converted to power by Thin film PV, which is nudging 15% now (i.e. 3 times the power with same space). We have a lot of head room to reach 70-80%. Technology will solve that problem.

As of today you can generate average of 4units for every 100sft of Solar panel. A typical parking space is 140sq.ft. Thus it can generate about 5Kwh. That is good enough to drive between 25 to 50km (depending on car).

Considering no Indian city permits more than 4x construction (in most cases it is 2 to 2.5x). An apartment of the size of 1000sq.ft will have atleast 250sft of roof space too. This such a building can generate 10units (300units/month) per apartment.

Some houses can generate more than others, who will contribute it to the grids.

In any case, Roof top solar will not end the need for Grid. Large power consumers (like factories, business parks) will still need the grid. It'll bring down need for wasteful & expensive grid power by nearly half. Grid is only needed to make up for shortfall and low power generation days/night.

But, the grid itself will have higher mix of Clean energy, with Fossil fossil percentage going down each passing decade. WE won't be clean by 2030. But, we can be pretty sure that in our children's lifetime fossil fuel will not be needed even in Grid.

And when we say 'local power' it doesn't have to be our own roof top. It could be roof tops of other houses or even nearby solar fields. For example - a field of 1 acre of land can generate 7,50,000 units of power in a year. Even at about Rs.3/Kwh that is over Rs.20Lakhs/year. Many people with land within 50-80km of a city will choose to generate power and sell it to the grid. It is fairly lucrative.

[darklord]

Looks like Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has other plans:

IOC, BPCL, HPCL ink $40 bn deal to set up world’s largest refinery, petrochemical complex

State-owned oil firms IOC, BPCL and HPCL today signed an agreement to jointly set up the world’s largest refinery and petrochemical complex at Ratnagiri district of Maharashtra at a cost of USD 40 billion.

http://www.financialexpress.com/indu...omplex/718639/

[yatin]

Only electric vehicles doesn't sound right. What about critical categories of vehicles like ambulances, police vehicles, VIP vehicles, that can't just wait to be recharged? It sounds like they would need a mechanism where a petrol engine can charge the batteries, even drive the wheels.