[sri_tesla]

Originally Posted by GrandTourer

This will still not solve the fossil fuels issue since more than 80% of electricity is still produced in thermal plants using coal. So it's just misplacement of the carbon footprint, no reduction of carbon footprint. Also the transmission losses in the Indian power distribution system is 21%.

It's true that majority of power generation in India is still coal based, but for the last 4 years we are adding record levels of renewable energy (solar and wind) capacity. In fact, out new capacity solar and wind power addition each year is more than enough to power even if all new cars and 2 wheelers become EVs. I already posted in detail earlier in one of the threads, but posting again here to dispel the misconception.

Cars:
Annual car sales is around 3 million. Let us assume all these are EVs in 2019. Assume all those are Hyundai Kona electric SUV. It has 258 miles (415 KMs) of electric range and battery capacity is 64 KWh. Means it needs 64 units of power to travel 415 KMs or 6.48 KMs per unit of electricity (1 KWh).

Let us assume average driving distance of these 3 million cars is 15,000 KMs per year (I heard its around 12,000 KMs but let's be conservative). So each car needs 15000/6.48 = ~2315 KWh of electricity per year. For 3 million EVs its ~7,000 GWh of electricity per year.

2 wheelers:
Annual 2 wheeler sales are around ~22 million. Let us assume all these are EVs (Ather 450) in 2019. Ather mentions that with ECO mode on, it gets 75 KM range and 60 KM without ECO mode. Let us be pessimistic and take range of without ECO mode. It has 2.4 KWh battery means 2.4 units of electricity to fully charge the battery. So it goes 25 KMs per unit of electricity (60/2.4 = 25).

Let us assumer average driving distance of these 22 million 2-wheelers is 1,000 KMs per month or 12,000 KMs per year for each vehicle. So each 2-wheeler needs 12,000/25 = 480 KWh of electricity per year. For 22 million 2-wheelers, it is 10,560 GWh of electricity per year.


Solar addition in 2017:
India's annual solar output in FY18 is 25,871 GWh. It was 12,000 GWh in FY17. In just 1 year solar output doubled. In 2018 we added another 8GW of solar capacity.

With rooftop solar picking up pace, wind/solar costs going down, offshore wind, battery storage in future, we will be able to generate many times of renewable electricity in future than what is required for EVs. Private owners with own roofs (individual houses) will find it much more economical and ROI will be much earlier with solar roofs and EVs.

Don't go by traditional automakers like Mercedes or Toyota statements. They will want to drag their feet as long as possible. Without competition or regulations they will happily sell you petrol/diesel cars for another century.

[GrandTourer]

Originally Posted by Holyghost

1. The rate of growth of Renewable energy is at a much faster pace than thermal energy. If you look at the same WiKi page, you can see that since 2017, only 8GW of Thermal energy was added while 22GW of renewable energy was added in the same time frame. Interesting to note that Gas and diesel based power generation went down from 25.3GW to 24.9GW and 838MW to 637MW respectively in the same time period.

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

It's true that majority of power generation in India is still coal based, but for the last 4 years we are adding record levels of renewable energy (solar and wind) capacity. In fact, out new capacity solar and wind power addition each year is more than enough to power even if all new cars and 2 wheelers become EVs. I already posted in detail earlier in one of the threads, but posting again here to dispel the misconception.

Happy to be corrected about this. But my skepticism still prevails because of the fact that large oil and gas companies are so huge in our country's economy, that would it be possible to completely move to electric power in a span of 11 years? Unless of course these giants themselves invest largely in renewable sources over the years and lobby for renewable sources.

[sri_tesla]

Originally Posted by GrandTourer

Happy to be corrected about this. But my skepticism still prevails because of the fact that large oil and gas companies are so huge in our country's economy, that would it be possible to completely move to electric power in a span of 11 years? Unless of course these giants themselves invest largely in renewable sources over the years and lobby for renewable sources.

Well, 11 years seem very short time but the actual EV developments are going on worldwide for the last 2 decades. Only thing that needs to be addressed is to make them affordable. Over the last decade battery prices are down 85%. Price decline is going to continue for the next decade with due to economies of scale (China), new technologies, innovation. It happened in solar and wind industries. Its happening in battery industry which in turn will change automobile and electricity sectors.

Coming to giants moving to renewable energy, NTPC is the largest coal power producer in India. They have been setting up solar plants for the last 2-3 years. Even coal India and Lignite corporation are setting up solar plants albeit at lesser scale. Private power producers like Tata power, Adani power etc.. are setting up large scale renewable plants across the country. Financing for new coal plants dried up across the world. Major financial institutions are shifting their funding from fossil plants to renewable energy. Many Indian states stopped new coal plant development and only setting up either solar or wind plants.

[GrandTourer]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

Coming to giants moving to renewable energy, NTPC is the largest coal power producer in India. They have been setting up solar plants for the last 2-3 years. Even coal India and Lignite corporation are setting up solar plants albeit at lesser scale. Private power producers like Tata power, Adani power etc.. are setting up large scale renewable plants across the country. Financing for new coal plants dried up across the world. Major financial institutions are shifting their funding from fossil plants to renewable energy. Many Indian states stopped new coal plant development and only setting up either solar or wind plants.

This is actually really nice to hear that conventional energy producers are moving to renewable energy production. Thanks for the information. I'm going to go do some reading for myself.

[Holyghost]

Originally Posted by GrandTourer

Happy to be corrected about this. But my skepticism still prevails because of the fact that large oil and gas companies are so huge in our country's economy, that would it be possible to completely move to electric power in a span of 11 years? Unless of course these giants themselves invest largely in renewable sources over the years and lobby for renewable sources.

The oil companies and automobile giants will not change unless they are forced to; either by the Government or by the market forces. The good thing about electric vehicles is that it is so economical to run that even if the Govt does not do anything, the market will force the manufacturers to switch to electric.
Look at the no of manufacturers that have announced the launch of electric vehicles in last one year. Those announcements did not come completely due to Govt pressure, but mainly due to the market pressure. The Tesla threatened the luxury car market to such an extend that Mercedes, Audi, Jag and others had to launch their electric vehicles in record time. With the launch of Model 3, we saw all the remaining car manufacturers announcing their electric variants.

All India needs is that Tesla moment. It could be the new electric WagonR, or the MGs new affordable electric, or an electric Tiago or even some unknown startup lunching a car that can run a minimum of 200KMs per charge and priced well below 10L to force the rest of the giants and oil companies to jump into the electric bandwagon. At the current prices and technology, this may seem impossible. But in coming years, not only will that be possible, there could even be a holy grail moment with battery technology surpassing the 1000KM range or a 5-10 min recharge time

[FrodoOfTheShire]

India’s central think-tank has asked scooter and motorbike manufacturers to draw up a plan to switch to electric vehicles, days after they publicly opposed the government’s proposals saying they would disrupt the sector.

NITI Aayog officials met with executives from companies including Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp and TVS late on Friday, giving them two weeks to come up with the plan

Link

[volkman10]

Clash in Views- No plan to completely ban petrol, diesel vehicles: Minister


Is there any government paper that mentions that petrol and diesel vehicles will be banned from a particular date? India cannot afford to do that : Minister

EV is a priority but the incremental requirement of fuel will have to be met through a combination of BS-VI grade petrol and diesel, CNG and biofuels alongside EV

Link

[NaXal]

Reality sets in..

First deadline was all EV by 2025 then it was pushed back to 2030 & now it's postponed indefinitely.

But within this time, countless dealership closed & whole auto industry went to 30% negative growth.

People need realistic long term policy. This type of "U" turn is really problematic for manufacturers & customers.

Worst sufferers would be those who already committed huge investment for EV by looking at 2030 deadline.

[srishiva]

EVs need not be all about cars. Public transport and 2 wheelers can take care of the needs for big majority. Again it rests with the govt if they want to invest in public transport. Small distances to and fro to public transport can be easily covered with 2 wheelers. For majority of users, better quality transport with less time spent and amenities like AC is needed. Cars and such can be used for longer routes and can still run on fossil fuels for time being.

[payeng]

The first Step that NIT AAYOG needs to set is a DEADLINE to generate 100% electicity using Renewable, Nuclear, Clean energy.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

Financing for new coal plants dried up across the world. Major financial institutions are shifting their funding from fossil plants to renewable energy. Many Indian states stopped new coal plant development and only setting up either solar or wind plants.

This is great to hear! Not something most of us are aware of apparently, thanks for sharing.

Like with most things that will be good for us in the long run, the hardest thing will be getting us private citizens to change our individual behavior!

We'll be the last to let go of our gas guzzling and polluting ICEs, all the while putting the blame/onus on the government, the policies, the technology, the industries, public transport, manufacturers, this guy, the other guy, etc etc, long after all these institutions have made the required shifts.

[joslicx]

Dont know if this has been shared already, but looks like very encouraging news on the battery tech front.

the Powerchip anode is capable of achieving an 80% recharge from empty in 15 minutes. The more common 10% to 90% recharge is also targeted at 15 minutes. In addition to fast charging, XNRGI estimates that Powerchip batteries will increase EV range up to 280% compared to a conventional Lithium-ion battery pack of the same weight. For reference, that means a current EV with 250 miles of range (as many have) would have a 700-mile range.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-t...-to-700-miles/

[4x4addict]

These ideas are all all fine and dandy when you put in on paper as a policy. But, one must consider these facts:

1) Electricity distribution in most of India is a state govt monopoly.
2) Many of the state govt owned power distribution companies are running on severe losses due to theft and power given free for votes
3) Due to the above factor, many parts of India suffer from low voltage and erratic power supply.
4) So to go all electric in automotive space, one must have an efficient and always on power supply to our homes and industries to begin with.

I don't think we can achieve this by 2030. Even France has pushed their all electric automotive idea to 2040 and I think India will have to push it too !!

[mvadg]

I am a little surprised that we're even discussing this so seriously. Politicians are known for speeches and hot air. Their teams (bureaucratsand their ministries) have no reason to take this up; and that too with all the tax discounts. We've been conned into buying obsolete technology earlier and this could be one them. It's possible that the developed nations have realized EVs are not the future. (My opinion, and I could be wrong)

[volkman10]

This 'NITI' airs views again. Re-draws the EV plan. After dictating terms, now calls for inclusiveness.

On electrification of four-wheelers, while the think tank made no proposal, it hopes India to achieve zero emission by 2047.

- hopes India to achieve zero emission by 2047.

- For two- and three-wheelers, to adopt a swappable model of li-ion batteries, which can be easily carried within the vehicles or charged at home.

- ICE component manufacturers who have attained global competitiveness will continue to export to other countries where ICE vehicles will continue to be used and secure the current employment status.

- Investment for the shift to BS-VI has been done... feels the next six years would suffice for this investment to be recouped by domestic and export sales of ICE vehicles and their components.

For the four-wheelers (cars, buses and trucks), Niti Aayog has reached out to the industry to give a time-bound transition plan, which will be discussed with completely open minds.

Link