[OrangeCar]

This is gold, in terms of information. People scramble to get this level of detailed information. (Ask a student pursuing a business degree).

Quick points -

Maruti - Consistently in the 45% to 48% range of market share over the years. Because of their strong presence in the meatiest segment of the market. You also notice that they are preparing themselves for the shift in market, i.e, Nexa brand and with bigger cars like S-Cross, Ciaz, Breeza etc. They are increasingly getting confident too, Ignis pricing is case in point. If they are able to launch a good MUV/SUV like product - I don't think there is any stopping Maruti from retaining their market share.

Toyota - Thankfully they have the Crysta and the Fortuner. With almost no visible product in the pipeline, they are left to the mercy of competition. Again, there seems to be nobody to take them on!

Honda - With no good product in their stable (except for City and Jazz maybe), they could soon see themselves lagging behind Toyota, Tata and maybe even Renault.

Tata - Will be interesting to see how Kite5 & Nexon will perform. Again, will depend on pricing. Pricing seems to be more important to Tata than anybody else. Purely because they are late entrants to any segment they would want to enter, and they almost lack any differentiating factor. If Hexa pricing is any indication, Tata will not have it easy to gain market share. They will have to fight hard, even with decently good products.

Mahindra - These guys seem to have mastered the art of keeping their head above water, somehow. They keep launching products, that are variations of their existing products. They seem to be coming up with long base TVU300. Chopped of Xylo, aka Quanto and things like that. One more XUV500 like star in their stable, and they would cement a spot in the top 5 for a long time.

Renault - New Kwid on the block! If the soon to come Kaptur/Captur has 7 seats and is priced decently, they will move up the ladder and could soon be sitting between Tata and Toyota. This is why I would say, Honda will fall behind. Renault has good products coming up, where as Honda has been dishing out half baked products at a premium. Soon, we could see Honda and Renault swapping places.

Ford - One of my favorites. I find them one of the most responsive brands in the market. Look how they immediately responded to Breeza. Plus, recently made changes to EcoSport (albeit small changes and consumers might have lost out). But they did respond! Compare this to Japanese brands like Toyota and Honda. A nice product like the Ford Edge (with 7 seat variant for India), hybrid variants of existing cars could be cool! We expect cool from the lone American here (given up on Chevy!).

Next Year, my prediction of market share by car makers would be -
1. Maruti
2. Hyundai
3. Mahindra
4. Tata
5. Toyota
6. Renault
7. Honda
8. Ford
9. Datsun
10. VW

[landcruiser123]

Excellent thread. Thank you so much for compiling all data together.

I'm surprised at Honda. Something is clearly wrong with the management. They were known to best-in-class products. The new City is competent, but the BR-V and Amaze have are really not upto the expectation of the segment.

Toyota certainly have potential and should launch the Vios and Yaris shortly. Most European manufacturers have to pull up their socks now.

[Lobogris]

Total car sales in 2016 almost broke the 3 million mark for the first time. If it had not been for the demonetisation, the sales would have crossed this milestone. Indian car sales are still minuscule compared to China or the United States as both of them posted around 20 million units sold. China had a huge spurt in sales between year 2000 (2 million) to over 18 million in 2010. I am hoping we can have a spurt on similar lines where we cross at least 15 million sales by 2025. Just 3 million units sold in a country of 1.3 billion is extremely low. We need to target an annual growth of at least 15%.

[nakul0888]

Honda's sales are down by 31.5 %. If you ask me they absolutely deserved it.
They took loyal customers for a ride in 2014 and 2015 with their sub par products and looks like their game is up. Honestly did they really think they could cut quality by such a noticeable margin, price it through the roof and nobody is going to notice it? If Honda wants to get to the top again, they should pull up their socks and give the Indian consumer better cars that are worth their money. Otherwise you are going to be the next GM.

[santosh911]

What a great thread this is! This is the sort of analysis not even the analysts tracking the auto sector can provide!

You have to hand it to Maruti for an amazing performance in 2016 with huge capacity crunch. I predict with the new Gujarat plant becoming operational and the launch of the Ignis and Swift, Maruti will extend its lead even further in 2017. Tata Motors is set for a good year too and will firmly overtake M&M which has no great launches expected this year.

[abhinavsureka]

Great analysis.

Mitsubishi is going down and down. We can only hope that post their buyout by Nissan they will divorce HM and have a fresh beginning.
Their cars are brilliant and have amazing build quality and fan following.

VW is launching the Tiguan and Passat soon and that should help bring some life back to the brand. But again, these are not volumes generators. Next gen polo and vento coming in 2018??? or even later than that?

[Carma2017]

I do a lot of work for Mitsubishi here in Japan and compared to their neighbour Toyota, this company has brilliant engineers but definitely lack leadership direction. Their sale to Nissan, on a gentle nudge from Government, is a God sent in my opinion. I hope they recommend their priorities and get back to seriously brilliant car making that they are capable of.

[Pal]

Hey Anurag!

Thanks for sharing such detailed information.

Although no doubt that the report and analysis done is vast, I was surprised to see the omission of the INR 25+ lakh players, namely Audi, Mercedes, BMW, JLR etc which I am certain, contribute to nearly 28-30,000 vehicles annually between them. Methinks, this would truly make yours a comprehensive report (and standing true to all the logos in the opening pic!).

Now I am aware that not all high-end manufacturers share this data, but then again, we also have Mercedes and Audi pompously (and rightly so) advertising having clocked 5 digit sales in 2014 and 2015. So it would be interesting to see their contribution, growth and market share in 2016 - as opposed to mulling over HM/ Mitsubishi's 3 or Fiat's 4 digit sales.

Also, may I also suggest a few new additions (if possible i.e.)

• Analysis of revenue generated, like how much are Indians spending? (Each model could be freezed with a mean price for this)
• Breakup of best sellers - region/ city wise
• Break up of car sales, BHP wise (0-70, 70-100, 100-150, 150-200 etc)

Thanks and Cheers to the entire Team!
Sidd Pal

[shankar.balan]

An excellent analysis indeed!
Thanks for sharing.

Shocking to see the way some of these manufacturers go right down the tubes over 5 years!

Wondering in case Maruti ups the ante with more AMT/ AT offerings in its Top Spec variants, whether they will be able to gain some more lead and increase the distance between themselves and Hyundai...

[nvramsub]

I am still going through the full data. A quick comment though to the author to improve the quality of analysis:

1. Numbers are not consistent. The total numbers in the first table are different from the Top Gainers (Manufacturers) or Top Losers (Manufacturers) for most manufacturers.

2. When we compile the list of top gainers and top losers, doing them on the basis of %YoY change would be grossly incorrect. That is why cars like Teana which sold 12 this year vs 9 last year make it to the list.

[nvramsub]

The details by manufacturers is very interesting.

And the table showing the contribution by segments shows how the Indian market is moving towards B2, C1 and C2 segments away from others.

It is a function of an increase in number of offerings from different manufacturers, primarily Maruti & Hyundai and a reflection of the customers willing to pay more for better cars.

That said, the decline in D segment is a hint that people find more VFM in cars priced between 7-12 lakhs. In cities like Bangalore, it can go up to 13-14 lakhs.
Demonetization is bound to impact sales of the D segment in 2017.