Team-BHP - Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

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Originally Posted by dailydriver (Post 4199121)

The next generation of cars will be "computers on wheels". Google, Apple, and Foxconn have the disruptive edge, and are going in for the kill. Silicon Valley is where the auto action is, not Detroit, Wolfsburg, or Toyota City.

This Silicon Valley thing is just hype, apple and Google are having trouble recruiting talent, the highest paid ones just walked out few months ago. Car companies aren't sitting still, Toyota has been selling hundreds of thousands of hybrids, BMW has started an electric range and has access to a huge data stream of actual autonomous driving conditions.

The computer on wheels thing isn't new, but nowhere in the article is there a mention of how the electricity to charge and run the cars will be generated. How about some insights into how the batteries will be disposed when they inevitably run out? The future is certainly electric, the pollution and filth from mining and manufacturing the batteries will be out of sight, just like it is for mobile phones.

I am sitting at my farm where its 44 degrees according to the dashboard display on my XUV, and reading this and laughing out loud. Partly because, 1. There's no one else here and 2. There hasn't been electricity here since Sunday as we have massive load shedding. Even when the power does come, the voltage isn't enough to run the pump. This less than 100 kms from Mumbai. 100 percent electric cars by 2030? Dream on.

Instead of regulating something, the best thing that our nosy govermment can do is just not get in the way. If electric car makers can get their products at a compelling price, consumers will move enmasse. Except a few of us on here, most people drive cars for the convenience of it, and don't really care about what they drive as long as its comfortable and VFM to own. If an electric car is cheaper and more convenient to use, people will be queuing up to buy one. Otherwise, all the lotteries in the world won't help get them out of the showroom.

The automotive sector directly and indirectly is responsible for lot of employment, and the industry's contribution to GDP is noticeable, around 7.1% last I read on Wikipedia.
Secondly, the amount of tax on fuel is huge, and controlling the number of cars sold will have an impact onto the fuel requirement impacting tax revenue from fuel.

Next, if at all rationing is done with "Green" in mind, all electric cars by 2030 and this lottery system doesn't make sense when we factor in the BS-VI emission norms. By 2020, we will have stricter than current emission norms for which refineries, mainly government OMC's are likely to have/already have invested for up-gradation.

New emission norms and related investments, India's electricity generation/infrastructure, make this rationing a bit irrelevant.

If this sort of rationing is done, it would be quite a few steps backward and may have larger impact than expected.

Electric cars aren't exactly that green (:D):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F04MXepYiBs

Quote:

Originally Posted by djpeesh (Post 4199545)

I am sitting at my farm where its 44 degrees ..., the voltage isn't enough to run the pump. This less than 100 kms from Mumbai. 100 percent electric cars by 2030? Dream on.

rl:
Agree with you, 100% electric cars by 2030 seems to be a dream.

Great suggestions by Niti Aayog. Earlier I read that they were proposing battery swapping but I hope they dropped the idea. Team-bhp members need to remember that this proposal is still in papers and the govt will change the plans based on the market conditions and technological advancements.

So many people seem to criticize the govt. For them, I would like to share the India's achievements in the electricity sector, especially in solar in the last 3 years.

Solar story in India: Time line

India announced in 2010 that they will build 20,000 MW of new solar capacity by 2020 by the then govt.
Sadly, the central govt for the next 4 years, did not follow it up with conviction. Only few states mainly Gujarat took the initiative and build solar power plants in large capacity during the next 4 years. So Between 2010 and 2014 India's total solar power capacity only reached 2,600 MW. Many were stalled with land hurdles and other issues.
In 2014, new govt announced that by 2022, they will build 100 GW of solar and 60 GW of wind power projects.
Govt announced mega solar power parks with capacity of more than 500 MW.
With the central govt's incentives, planning and many state govts like Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamilnadu, Rajasthan, Telangana pro-activeness Solar power prices started to fall.
For the last 2 financial years (2015-16 and 2016-17) India added highest ever solar and wind capacity.
With the auction system in place, and push from state govts in making land available, Solar power price dropped from Rs 6 in 2014 to Rs 4.5 in 2015 and now to Rs 2.44 in 2017. Wind power price is now dropped to Rs 3.5 from Rs 5 earlier.
Solar costs now less than many coal power plants in India.
India's largest thermal power generation company NTPC started building solar power plants.
While coal power prices will keep on growing over the time, these solar power prices will stay the same for the next 25 years.

Initially, govt provided incentives and viability gap funding but now with out any of the incentives solar price came down Rs 2.44 per unit this year. All this happened due to economies of scale, lots of foreign funding, low interest rates and govt guarantee to provide land without hurdles and guarantee of purchasing power.

Many of you guys may not believe in the electric vehicle revolution but its going to happen much fast than you think. People will only act if its absolutely necessary and its same with larger corporations with decades of experience. The ones which will change with times will survive and the ones which does not will bite the dust just like in case of Mobile phones and Nokia/Motorola/Blackberry.

By this time next year, many of the traditional automakers feel the pinch of electric revolution by Tesla Model 3. Currently they are all hoping that this will fail so that they keep on selling their ICE vehicles for another century.

Solar + battery storage + electric vehicle = Future of energy and automobile industries :thumbs up

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Originally Posted by sri_tesla (Post 4199627)

Solar + battery storage + electric vehicle = Future of energy and automobile industries :thumbs up

Mate, without getting into a pros and cons of the government, solar power prices dropped globally as cells got cheaper and the grid grew. All the government had to do was sit back and not interfere.

Electric cars will do well if they're allowed to develop without government interference. You cited the blackberry example. That's exactly what happened with blackberry. There was no firnaan from the government banning feature phones.

People choose phones based on utility and cost. Similarly they will choose their vehicles. Also going off topic but maybe this is worth reading.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...g-power-to-all

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Originally Posted by djpeesh (Post 4199781)

solar power prices dropped globally as cells got cheaper and the grid grew. All the government had to do was sit back and not interfere.

If all the government did is sit back and relax, then India's solar capacity would still have been around 5,000 MW not 12,289 MW. Prices may have come down from Rs 6-7 in 2014 to Rs 4-5 in 2017.

There are so many initiatives by Central govt and state govts in the last 2 years for developing solar capacity.

Major initiative is to develop mega, ultra mega solar parks with capacities more than 500 MW.
Providing viability gap funding by central govt per MW of solar.
Combining cheaper coal power from NTPC to stabilize the grid for the sates which are building large solar parks.
Changing the reserve prices as per the market conditions and reverse auction inviting all companies (Indian and global) to participate in the auction.
Pro-active land acquisition by state govts like Andhrapradesh, Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh for solar parks. In most of these states this land is mostly barren land with higher solar irradiation.
Guarantees by Central and state govts, SECI and NTPC to purchase power and payments.

I am not saying this is the achievement of only central govt. This is a collective achievement by states and center. If the govt had indeed sit idle and relax then we would have been nowhere in solar capacity. Land availability itself would have stalled all the solar projects.

Another small example of govt initiative:
In Jan 2016, Rajasthan conducted auction for solar project with 70 MW. It was won by Fortum for Rs 4.34/KWh. At that time it was record low price in India.

In March 2017, in the same state 200 MW capacity is won at record lower price of Rs 2.44/KWh. This price is less than average price of coal power plants at NTPC. In this period while solar module prices only declined 30%, the power price almost halved. Also, solar equipment cost is only 60% of the total cost of a solar power plant.

The main reason for this record lower price is decision of the Government of India to cover solar power by SECI under the ambit of tripartite agreement for payment security against defaults by State distribution companies.

In another instance Andhra Pradesh built the worlds largest solar park with 1,000 MW capacity. For this auction price of solar power per unit is around Rs 4.63/KWh to Rs 5.12/KWh. But the central govt agreed to bundle the solar power with NTPC cheaper coal power which made the unit cost Rs 4.

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Originally Posted by romeomidhun (Post 4199599)

People "accepted" demonetization thinking that those who are "richer" than them will "suffer". That envy acted as a sugar-coated pill in the case of demonetization, IMO.

Need to wait and see whether the same will happen about this 2030 move, or, they identify and expose the gimmicky moves to gather attention.

Yes, you are right. It was the envious vicarious pleasure of the have-nots to see the haves suffer through demonitisation. But....was it? Really? The rich seemed to exchange their old currency notes illegally while it were the poor who actually suffered standing in queues.

Similarly, it will be regular folks who will suffer while the polticians and rich will somehow by-pass this law and drive around in multi-crore SUVs. If Govt. is serious let them lead by example. Let every MLA/MP/minister drive around in electric Reva (swadeshi, "Make in India" you see. Not Prius). Let's see how many of them disembark from their "high-horses" (read SUVs).