[Khushrav]

The only reason why Piyush Goyal is talking electric is because it is his ministry. Ideally it should be Gadkari who should set policies for Auto. Hybrid is truly the way forward for the next 20 years till electric car's infra develops.
Typical myopic views from govt. often bring poor implementation, wrong focus and disastrous long term results.
Raising 10% additional cess is another great example of poor planning and brains defect.

[sri_tesla]

Originally Posted by Khushrav

Hybrid is truly the way forward for the next 20 years till electric car's infra develops.

Only in India, Hybrid looks like a new thing and has future but the rest of the world especially developed countries are having Hybrid cars for the last 20 years. In the last 20 years, Hybrids were never able to rule the market in any major market.

In fact the most popular Hybrid ever Toyota Prius sales declining for the last few years despite having better electric range than earlier. See the Prius US sales below. For the last few years it sales are declining at a rapid pace despite increasing charging infra.

[Khushrav]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

Only in India, Hybrid looks like a new thing and has future but the rest of the world especially developed countries are having Hybrid cars for the last 20 years. In the last 20 years, Hybrids were never able to rule the market in any major market.

In fact the most popular Hybrid ever Toyota Prius sales declining for the last few years despite having better electric range than earlier. See the Prius US sales below. For the last few years it sales are declining at a rapid pace despite increasing charging infra.

Disagree. Hybrids or Electric cars are the future. The technology is evolving. Over the last 20 years the reason why they could not get the success was because the best engineering and manufacturers were not producing and marketing them. Specifically Prius did not give the thrill of driving with more power and dynamics. That is being done by Tesla and getting success.

With the Paris Climate Agreement and India's own commitment of going 100% electric by 2030, this is the future. To develop the future you need to invest in the present and that is where this govt. with its flip flop policies has missed.

In fact, the Roads and transport sector has always been the scapegoat for such random overnight changes - sun films, diesel ban, 200mm ground clearance, subsidies to small cars vs more efficient cars has always existed.

[sri_tesla]

Originally Posted by Khushrav

Disagree. Hybrids or Electric cars are the future.

What I meant was Hybrids are not going to be the future. You mentioned in your earlier post that Hybrids will be the way forward which is what I disagreed in my earlier reply.

On the other hand I absolutely agree that Electric will be the future. It does not need 20 years. In the next decade itself they will be ruling the entire automobile industry. Once they reach the tipping point, future of ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) will be bleak.

[aravind.anand]

I guess the Prius's declining sales can be attributed to two key factors -

1) Tesla and the rapid strides they have been taking

2) The way the new Prius looks!
With its not-even-its-mother-can-love-it looks, the Prius's styling can really put many a buyer away.



I certainly cannot accept this car in my garage, and love it with all my heart. No matter how good it actually is!

[srishiva]

These cars designed by existing manufacturers are eye sores. Maybe its intentional ! New age companies developing electric cars are making better looking cars though.

[StarrySky]

I think the problem with hybrid and electric vehicles is simply the cost - specifically, do these vehicles really save "me" any money in the 5-7 years that I may use the car.

For eg: a Golf 1.6 TDI Highline A/T costs €31000 here. At the same time, Golf GTE plug-in hybrid costs €41000 or thereabouts and the e-Golf costs another €1000 more. In my car ownership here so far, my yearly fuel costs have been about €850. Do the math.

My company has a car lease policy which is biased towards more fuel efficient vehicles, so hybrid and electric vehicles have an advantage. Here too, the initial cost of these vehicles play spoilsport. So for eg: I can lease the Golf 1.6 TDI Highline A/T at about €360 a month, whereas the plug-in hybrid costs €420 and the e-Golf costs €460. Why should I pay €100 more a month for the e-Golf, when my fuel costs average at about €70 a month?

This is similar to the petrol/diesel dilemma many people have in India. Many of us are prepared to pay a higher price to buy a diesel car, in the hope that it would be financially better in the long run. So far, such an equation doesn't favour the hybrid/electric cars, at least in my case.

Hybrid/Electric cars may well be the future. But, as things stand, I wouldn't vote for it with my wallet.

[Motard_Blr]

Ruling parties may change but governments always seem to behave to same way - when it comes to grand projects, they always want to run before they can even walk. Examples, particularly in defence related projects:

- Arjun main battle tank

- Tejus (light combat aircraft)

- Kaveri engine for the LCA

- High speed train (bullet train)

- Various types of guns for the army (rifles and cannons)

See this article:
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/Deyw...-security.html

I can think of only 2 big projects that have succeeded recently:
One is ISRO. That's because ISRO has worked towards achieving incremental goals. I suspect also because space technology is something that most most Indian politicians don't understand, are unable to communicate what it is and its benefits to the common man, and therefore unable to take credit for successes.
The second is the golden quadrilateral highways project. This has been wildly successful in terms of benefits gained to the nation and the speed of execution. My understanding is that the then government should be given credit for planning and implementation of the scheme. The scheme created private funded road building infrastructure that allowed roads to built at an unprecedented rate of several kilometres per day and, incredibly, meeting time and cost targets.

On a related note, new technologies aren't born overnight and neither are the ecology required to sustain them. ISRO is where it today thanks to many investments in the private sector (from both big and small companies) both in manufacturing and services. The same can be said for the Indian automobile industry.

If the government is serious about electric cars (they're not, of course), they should be putting in place plans for investment in infrastructure - benefits for battery technology and new plants to manufacture them, land power and technology for charging stations, etc. Being a pessimistic Indian, I don't see that happening.

Today being our 70th independence day, I am reminded that there are many other things that we can be thankful for. Happy independence day! Jai Hind!

[GTO]

Just received this UBS Report which says the same thing we've been saying!

Tough road for electric cars in India

(Sonal Gupta, Analyst, UBS Securities India Pvt. Ltd & Mr. Patrick Hummel, Analyst, UBS Securities India Pvt. Ltd.)

India's goal of all-electric mobility by 2032 looks very challenging to achieve

Despite rapidly falling battery costs, we expect a long-range electric vehicle (EV) to remain too expensive for mainstream adoption without major government subsidies. With the need for a local battery cell manufacturing and electronics value chain and charging infrastructure, India’s government would need to invest significantly to drive industry growth, but fiscal space is limited and India has other priorities. Last, though solar power generation should grow rapidly, we find India's power-generation mix too coal dependant to drive a reduction in emissions, even if EVs were widely adopted. We believe investors expect India’s auto market to remain ICE-driven and that disruption from EVs is not priced in.

A long-range EV will remain too expensive, even in 2025

Our 23 September 2016 UBS Evidence Lab survey (What consumers think about electric cars, and what it means for auto profits) identified EVs’ 1) high cost, 2) limited single-charge range, 3) limited charging infrastructure, and 4) battery life as consumers’ top concerns about EVs. We believe these concerns are universal, but are more acute in India given the low affordability and low price points in the market. The median car in India now costs only US$10,000 (ex-showroom) while, even in 2025, we expect a long-range EV (380km) to cost about US$21,500 and a moderate-range one (190km) US$16,000, given UBS’s forecast of a US$130/Kwh battery cost by 2025.

Need for greater subsidy and government support

Since 2009, China’s government has provided significant subsidies and support (US$13bn-plus in 2015) to make producing EVs attractive, and in 2015 China became the largest EV market. EVs have not prospered in India despite incentives under the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles in India (FAME) scheme and lower taxes. We believe greater government investment will be needed to make EVs more attractive to consumers and manufacturers, but the government has limited fiscal space and other priorities, so larger incentives to use EVs seem unlikely.

Take the middle path – offer more support for HEVs and PHEVs

We believe that, given its fiscal constraints, the government should offer more incentives to improve the viability of hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) as they use smaller batteries, are not constrained by weak charging infrastructure, and the move should result in development of a supply chain that would will eventually be a stepping stone to battery electric vehicles (BEV).

Q. Will the Seventh Pay Commission boost car demand over the next two to three years?

Yes. We expect a meaningful addition to car demand from government employees given the overall low level of ownership currently. We are bullish on pay-commission-driven car demand in FY18-19 and expect 5% of the industry demand to come from the pay commission.

Q. What is the impact of Ride-on-Demand (RoD) on the car industry?

While RoD has been a meaningful driver of new car demand in FY16 and FY17 and consensus expectations for growth remain very positive, we expect demand to fall in FY18 as the RoD industry moves past its exponential growth phase. However, given the extremely low penetration of cars and their strong association with social status in India, we believe the risk of a negative impact on car ownership due to expansion of RoD services is low, unlike in developed markets.

UBS VIEW

We are positive on car-market growth over FY18-19 driven by the decline in interest rates and the boost from salary revisions for government employees. We expect GST implementation to support premiumization of the car market and expect faster growth for mid-size SUVs. We expect UVs to grow at a 17% CAGR over FY17-20E and to account for 30% of the PV market by FY20E (25% in FY17).

EVIDENCE

Our 2016 UBS Evidence Lab survey indicates strong demand for cars both from government employees and others. However, the near-term demand trend remains muted, with stronger demand expected within six to 24 months, implying a stronger boost to car demand in FY18.

[volkman10]

Hybrid, e-vehicles continue to attract incentives under FAME.

The scheme covers hybrid and electric technologies like a strong hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles.

The scheme offers sops on electric and hybrid vehicles of up to Rs 29,000 for bikes and Rs 1.38 lakh for cars, thereby lowering their price for buyers.

The pilot phase (Phase I) of the scheme was initially planned for a period of two years up to March 31, 2017. However, it was extended earlier up to September 30, 2017 and has now further been extended up to March 31, 2018.


link

[volkman10]

Another flip-flop from the Ministry, after threatening to bulldoze its way on EV's now he the ministry (Minister) softens its stand.

We are not against automobile industry , but the government is concerned about high levels of vehicular pollution.We have only asked the automobile industry to venture into electric vehicles segment

We export about Rs 1.5 lakh crore-worth automobiles.The auto industry has the hig hest employment potential. I told the auto makers to continue exports. However, pollution is a big concern. You give priority to indigenous technology

Pitching for coal as the source of electricity?

Now, India is a coal and power surplus country . It is very cheap. People will also benefit. Give priority to this. You venture into public transport sector

link

[srishiva]

Today read about how diesel gate is giving a boost to electric and hybrid cars. 48V systems with hybrid drive trains for petrol cars are being adopted in a big way and will still be about 1500 dollars cheaper than diesels. They will also be on par with CO2 emissions with diesels.

[Thermodynamics]

I tried to compile sales numbers for the last one year (2016 to 2017) from Autocar and Autopunditz to calculate total Government earning from EVs and Hybrids by GST.

It turns out that all the fuss here is for 114 Crores.


Hybrids may not exist in the long run but they are the stepping stones for full EV. The present decision could hamper an indigenous evolution of the technology.

[Turbanator]

Some practical comments, just for showing off that we will be 100 % electric and all that is not going to work. If fuel based automobiles are being used for past century, one can simply not switch in say 5-10 Years no matter what we do. If we see CNG Queues in Delhi, one can realise the hardships and can imagine what will happen if everyone switches to Electricity.

Hybrids definitely have a place even if these are expensive, there are no practical shortcuts, if we cannot do electrification of all the Train tracks in 100 Years, how is it possible to have a full electric network across India? Not everyone like politicians/ government officials can have the luxury of having multiple vehicles say Electric to go to Parliament or office and get their cars charged when they sit at the office and Land Cruisers/SUV to travel to their constituencies. The sooner Government understands this the better it will be for everyone. If they are indeed serious about fuel bills and pollution, they should have a Zero Tax structure for all true Hybrids say that covers at least 100 km on batteries to keep fake hybrids getting an advantage.

from this link

And in future, if cities have a ban (on gasoline vehicles downtown), you can drive to the city border on gasoline and then enter on purely electric.

http://driving.ca/bmw/auto-news/news...ctric-mobility

[volkman10]

Now chaos in the Group, some pitch in for Hybrid as the first step to going EV way- makes sense!

Hybrid vehicles should be considered as key aspect in India's journey to future mobility, Niti Aayog member

answer to reduce the emission of IC engine is to go for hybrid, means you take IC engines and electric vehicles together

keep the hybrid route open, introduce the battery technology in first 2 wheelers and 3 wheelers, where the running at particular point in time does not exceed at 100 km

But still in terms of emissions, battery driven system will not be competitive in terms of greenhouse gas emission," adding that as coal is still main source for producing electricity, so our emissions will continue to be higher

Link