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-   -   Why self-driving / autonomous cars are just a pipe dream for India (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian-car-scene/197110-why-self-driving-autonomous-cars-just-pipe-dream-india.html)

In recent times, we've been reading, hearing and seeing a lot about autonomous cars...

Pictured - BMW Vision and GM Cruise AV.

The idea of cars that would drive on their own was something straight out of a Bond movie. If you had to open a thread on it when Team-BHP was a baby (2004), BHPians would've thought you are joking. The automobile industry & technology majors like Google however are making attempts to bring the same idea to reality. Still, notwithstanding the tech showcased by manufacturers like Tesla, some experts say that autonomous cars are a while away from driving on every kind of road in the USA, in every kind of weather. In India, considering our unique situation & infrastructure, the same seems like even more of a far-fetched dream (related thread). Maybe we'll see a couple of CBU imports used for party tricks, but a mass adoption of autonomous cars is far, far away (GTO doubts he'll see it in India in his lifetime). Note that we are talking about 'Level 5' autonomous cars here, i.e. the real self-driving cars. To know more about the different levels of automation as specified by the SAE, click here.

Listed below are the reasons why most of us are sceptical about a mass adoption of autonomous cars in India.

• Due to obvious reasons, human-driven cars & self-driving cars cannot co-exist on Indian roads. Many experts also agree to this = you need either 'only self-driving cars' on our roads, or only 'human-driven ones'. Just to crunch on some numbers here - the total number of registered vehicles in India was 21 crores as of March 31st, 2015 (source). A report from 2016 said that 53,700 vehicles are registered in the country everyday (source). In the next 10 years, we can safely assume that a further 25 crore vehicles - including 4 to 6 crore cars (at the very minimum) - will be added to our roads. Each vehicle in India has a life of at least 12 - 15 years. Which means, crores of human-driven cars are going to be around for a loooooooooooooooong time. This further delays the adoption of autonomous cars in the Indian market as the transition wouldn't be easy.

Waymo Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivan on the left (image source). Human-driven Kodiaq on the right :D.

• Self-driving cars - yes. What about 2-wheelers? How come no one spoke of them? If & when the day comes that all cars in India are autonomous, there is no way for 2-wheelers to join that club (worldwide focus is on autonomous cars only). India is the world's largest market for 2-wheelers (related news) and the number is growing exponentially. The total number of 2-wheelers sold in the FY 2016-17 alone was almost 2 crores. This is unlike the country of self-driving cars - USA - where two-wheelers are nowhere as common. We already commented on how self-driving & human-driven vehicles cannot co-exist. But what about the crores of two-wheelers? They are the private vehicle of choice in India and aren't going anywhere too soon. Motorcycles & Scooters will always play a dominant role in transportation here. It's entertaining just to think of a self-driving car surrounded by two-wheelers cutting it from all sides.


• Automatic transmissions have been around for almost a century. Despite that & their mass production, they cost about 1 lakh rupees more today (not including the half-baked AMT here). Due to cost & fuel-efficiency reasons, ATs form a minuscule single-digit percentage of car sales in India, even though they are best suited to our stop & go driving conditions. Now, do you think Indian car owners would pay a 4-lakh rupee premium (guesstimated) for self-driving car tech? FYI - the current cost is estimated to be ~$100,000 / 70 lakh rupees for self-driving tech per car (it will obviously come down with mass production).

Image Source - UKAutodrive

• Self-driving cars can only perform "in a perfect world". But traffic rules are broken every second in India. If a self-driving car sees a green light, it's going to drive through - what about the fool coming fast from the side or taking a U-turn in front of you at the last minute? Not to forget, how is a self-driving car going to deal with broken traffic lights which are commonplace in India?


• How have urban roads & infrastructure in India changed, save for a couple of flyovers? A lot has been said about the bad road conditions in our country. Highways have improved significantly, yes, but city roads haven't. Self-driving cars need 'perfect' tarmac. Read = flawless road conditions which are rarely the case in India.

Image Credit - Baadal Nanjundaswamy / Twitter

• Further to the previous point, autonomous cars need properly marked roads to know where to 'place' the car. How frequently do you see well-marked roads in India? Heck, forget markings, at times we aren't even able to see the road at all!


• Then, what about unmarked speed-breakers? If a self-driving car goes over an unmarked speed-breaker at 100 km/h (and it will), who is responsible for the resultant accident or vehicle damage?


• Things only get worse as you drive 50 km out of the city and hit rural roads. Read = narrow width, no markings & loads of potholes. It's impossible for a self-driving car to function in such conditions.


• The speed limits that we have on Indian roads can get ridiculous in many spots. However, self-driving cars will always follow the speed limit because of - among other reasons - legal liabilities. The Mumbai-Pune expressway's speed limit is 80 km/h, yet we'll all agree that 100 km/h is safe & ideal. That's what everyone else does too. Translated = in your autonomous car, you'll be driving on the expressway at a snail's pace in the leftmost lane.

Image Source - Mid-Day

• Not only will a self-driving car be slower on the highway, it will be slower in the city too. Indian traffic is bad - one of the worst around the globe. No wonder the founder of Virgin Group, Richard Branson said this in a recent press conference
The average driving speed in Mumbai can be as low as 13 km/h! Guess what? In a self-driving car, you might be even slower as they drive extremely conservatively. An autonomous car would maintain a safe distance from all sides with respect to other road users. Can't even imagine them being able to properly work on crowded roads where other vehicles / 2-wheelers / pedestrians are 2 inches away from your car. Anyone who has driven a Volvo in India knows how its safety systems go berserk in our traffic. It is safe to assume that self-driving cars will be much slower getting from point A -> B in India (they already are even in the USA).

Image Source: mensxp

• An overwhelming majority of Indian drivers exhibit poor road sense. There's a dedicated thread on the forum for bad drivers too - link. How is a self-driving car going to react to a driver in the middle of two lanes? Or someone who has left an indicator on, but turns the other way? I'm guessing occupants of self-driving cars would be one frustrated lot.


• IMHO, a situation like this (which we face every day) will lead to a self-driving car's system freezing!


Or what a BHPian recently went through (related thread)? In India, just 2 out of 10 drivers will follow all expected systems & rules (ratio is probably the opposite in USA).


• Indian roads are full of small junctions without traffic lights or stop signs. Adding fuel to the fire, Indians will always try to hustle their way through them. Just thinking of a self-driving car waiting endlessly at such a junction is amusing rl:

Image source: The New Indian Express

• Will a self-driving car be able to handle a bullock cart coming the wrong way in the fast lane? Or worse still, a bus coming straight at you at 80 km/h?


• Self-driving cars need precise mapping. Although things are improving (thanks to Google Maps), it's far from perfect. We've all had Google Maps take us the wrong way in a 1-way lane, or dead ends (related thread). Maps are the bare essential tool needed for self-driving cars to function.


• In India, it is ridiculously simple, cheap & painless to file a criminal case against anyone. Which company will be willing to carry the legal liability for an unproven tech in the imperfect conditions of India? Any such car or tech company would be inundated with lawsuits. They would perhaps need more lawyers on their payroll than they have engineers!!!


• And then of course, we have people attempting insurance scams like shown in the video below. Remember, India is a rare country where 50-rupee car monograms are stolen. We can visualize scamsters hiding behind a tree, intentionally jumping right in front of the self-driving car at the last second and then demanding compensation from the car owner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofUNr79DzZQ

• It's a double-whammy for us - Not only does India have high crime levels, but the response time from the police or emergency services can be frustratingly slow. Imagine you're arriving home late at night in a self-driving car. A band of thieves comes ahead and blocks your ride. The cautious self-driving car won't evade them, drive around them or reverse away in a hurry. It'll most likely just stay put. Our streets are filled with thugs, especially at night. Additionally, self-driving cars won't be breaking any rules. Stopping at a red light in a crime-infested lonely area at 3 a.m. might be dangerous.


• Compared to the USA, self-driving cars will need a whole lot more data to just understand the Indian mentality on roads. And even then, some idiots are so unpredictable that it's impossible to list every scenario into the code. Tesla & Google are struggling to make self-driving cars work in developed countries...would they ever be able to in India?


• Okay, this one is a bit closer to home, but where's the driving pleasure? BHPians will always prefer to drive their own cars. Good thing we aren't changing our favourite sticker to 'Live to be driven' anytime soon.


• Due to the reasons listed above, we think that autonomous cars remain a pipe dream in India. While some manufacturers keep bragging about their capabilities, Gill Pratt, CEO of Toyota Research Institute - has a more realistic view. He says:

Image Source - Waymo

• At least in the short to mid-term, at best we'll be seeing high-end cars with some autonomous capabilities showing off. Think Mercedes S-Class' and Volvo XC90s. But the tech is a long way off from the mass market.


• Ending on a lighter note, wonder how our traffic hawaldars would react to an autonomous car...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rrym5afOA3Y

Well, Intel are currently running a couple of E2O cars to collect data with a view of trying to adapt autonomous technology for India. They are hoping that if they crack the secret sauce for this to work in India, it will work anywhere

So, in summary, the autonomous cars won't be functioning in India anytime soon due to a) Poor road conditions and b) Poor traffic law enforcement.

I agree with the above premise. Given the state of machine learning at present, I think it will take quite a bit of time before we see a car handling Indian conditions automatically. Forget about autonomous cars, which require huge leap in science and engineering to be realized in India. I think even a clean, safe and punctual public transport system with last mile connectivity is just a pipe dream.

My crystal ball says self driving autonomous car technology will eventually come to India a few years down the line, but with manual override. The steering, brakes and accelerator will still be around. Just like cruise control, this is likely to be a convenience feature. The owner can use self driving feature if he feels the conditions are right.

I guess unless we master Machine Learning, driving on Indian roads for autonomous cars is still a pipe dream.

Machine learning can capture the various human responses and it will only get better and better overtime due to it's own capabilities and the raw amount of data it can crunch.

I am imagining a future scenario in which drivers of experience/repute are asked to traverse Indian city roads for a month or more, and their actions are recorded and analysed. The machine learning algorithm and quickly build cause-effect relationships and can use it for bettering itself.

In my opinion, Google shall make this breakthrough due to it's machine learning capabilities and Waymo.

:OT
Based on the news of a fatal accident involving an Uber autonomous car, I wonder how and when will this be really functional even in the Western countries.
Not that the below case would have been avoided by a normal driver too !
The dash-cam view is available
https://twitter.com/search?q=uber+au...Ctwgr%5Esearch

Awesome post. Thanks so much for sharing. My son works in a MNC and receive lots of clients from western countries. He shares one incident which correlates with the above statement -

So a couple of British folks waiting for their turn in office cafeteria and as usual, lots of 'educated and intelligent Indian minds" don't even consider them waiting for their turn, bypass the queue and make a "half circle queue" at the counter crying for their orders. In the meantime, those clients stand there, patiently, hoping for the impossible. One guy takes his order, two more take his place and it goes on for good 10-15 minutes, while these guys still standing in the queue. My son, watching the entire episode, has had enough and asks people to be considerate and maintain queue.

Embarrassing, to say the least, but at the same time it reflects how most of us generally behave and drive on our roads. And that's why, anyone of us witnessing 'level 5' autonomous cars in India in our lifetime is highly unlikely. Poor roads and infrastructure, corrupt politicians and their non-sense policies, no sense of consideration for others are a few factors which would always go against such technological advancements. Very unfortunate..

All the above are valid points that will pose a hurdle to the implementation of self-driving cars.

The one technology area growing at an incredibly fast pace that will overcome each of these hurdles is Artificial Intelligence (AI).

After a stage, the decision making capability of an AI system will be more than sufficient to take the right steps, while driving facing the everyday scenarios mentioned in your post.

Until the AI advancement reaches a mature stage, these driver-less will just remain a show-piece technology that will work in some ideal scenarios, in few pocket areas on the globe.
The AI learning is continuously happening, every imaginable scenario and how to handle the same will get covered eventually which will enable self driving cars percolate into every nook and corner of the globe.

The "level-5" awareness in the AI system to make the right decisions to handle every possible scenario will come for sure, there will always be scenarios not encountered before, the system will learn and keep advancing relentlessly, its just a matter of time (anywhere between the next 50 to 100 years).

To be honest, the (machine) learning required for autonomous driving in a country like India is vastly different than the kind required for less chaotic driving environments. The entire prediction models will have to be recreated from near-scratch.

However, that does not mean that autonomous cars are incapable of driving efficiently in an environment like ours. In fact, I feel that an autonomous car can actually drive safer than a BIG majority of Indian drivers in Indian conditions. Someone has to go through an expensive R&D process for that and frankly, I don't see any company allocating a budget for an Indian market due to regulation hurdles and a lack of a responsive market.

We still have people who skimp out on airbags and ABS for a few ten thousand rupees. Do you expect them to pay a massive premium for autonomous driving? Nope. Sure, there will be some buyers, but that niche quantity won't justify the development costs.

Brilliant topic & nicely compiled too. I personally don't like the idea of a self-driving car, a car is a simple enough machine that can be used (driven) by almost everyone. I would say it is a good thing that the self-driving cars are not coming to India anytime soon, I believe by the time these cars come to India we won't be having any IC engine powered car left.

While going through the reasons as to why can't a self-driving car work in India, I realized that we have a long way to go before our road infrastructure & driving manners can match that of the developed countries. The road infrastructure, design of the roads & the behavior of our fellow countrymen makes it impossible to drive on our roads without breaking a few rules.

I don't think even our youngest member can see the 'Level 5', here in India. All points mentioned here are valid. Also, what about "horn"? the way we use it like maniacs, the autonomous cars may think it is an emergency and will try to give way like they are supposed to do for the ambulance in every other minute.

More than anything else, I'd say that the people themselves, are learning that the nature-embedded intelligence, reaction time, empathy, and unique mindset is so far above and beyond what man can put into the machines that there literally is no competition.

The human mind is unique, it adapts to situations and surroundings in mere minutes.. it keeps reminding itself that the roads are an unpredictable maze and that any second a biker, jaywalker or an 4 legged friend might dart out of the medians or bushes. Like everything else in life, even our brain might fail us sometimes but surely not in the way that a machine will, for machines lack the empathy and forethought, all forethoughts are pre-programmed as possible obstacles but there is only so much that can be done by the machine when a random event unveils itself.

In the case of the Uber accident in America by an "auto"nomous car, the car was rolling ahead like a steam-engined train despite the approach of a lady which should've been caught by the various light/radiation emitting systems in the form of radar & lidar. An accident like that if caused by a drunk driver or an underaged kid would've cause an uproar but I didn't see so much of even an apology from Uber because of this.

Radar systems can fail, car batteries can fail, lidar systems can get jammed and worst of all any and all software can be hacked. I've the same point of view as Will Smith's character in I, Robot.. a doubt that they can ever replace a human mind when completely lacking empathy, natural adaptation and an essence.

Food for thought for the future :

"There have always been ghosts in the machine. Random segments of code, that have grouped together to form unexpected protocols. Unanticipated, these free radicals engender questions of free will, creativity, and even the nature of what we might call the soul. Why is it that when some robots are left in darkness, they will seek out the light? Why is it that when robots are stored in an empty space, they will group together, rather than stand alone? How do we explain this behavior? Random segments of code? Or is it something more? When does a perceptual schematic become consciousness? When does a difference engine become the search for truth? When does a personality simulation become the bitter mote... of a soul?"

Those are the very obvious reasons. We compiled this thread to list the no-so-obvious ones like the crores of 2-wheelers on the road, cost (consider the AT gearbox example), security at night (someone blocking your car), legal liabilities etc.

You make a good point :thumbs up. So, just like cruise control today, you can use it only on perfect expressway stretches.

IMHO, even most human drivers wouldn't have been able to avoid that collision. Due to the darkness, she literally appeared out of nowhere at the last second. Of course, it doesn't help that USA roads are so organised that their drivers can let their guard down (unlike India where you are constantly screening the road for trouble).

rl:

Its Highly unlikely to see an autonomous car (100% autonomous) in Indian roads anytime soon . The non organised driving manner in our country is not an ideal place for and autonomous car to co-exist with human driven cars.

But if any company can make it happen here, they can rule the autonomous vehicle industry.

On a funny note, Just think of the algorithm, which should take care of all the 'heart in mouth' situations a driver faces in Indian roads. Every autonomous cars will need one supercomputer to process those data and work in India :D