[blackasta]

Fiat - Festive mood all around, they have managed to sell 100+ cars in a month!

HM- Mitsu - So technically any mitsu bought by anyone has to be 6+ months old?

Honda - Amaze fever settling down?

Hyundai - 35%+ MoM growth for Eon? stock clearance before Santro moves in?

Maruti - Gypsy reborn? Ignis sales tapering.

Toyota - Yaris officially a sales dud?

[jpcoolguy]

Thanks Aditya for the monthly sales analysis for the month of September '18.

Few observations from my side -

1. Swift has achieved the top position in the sales, after a long time - the last time being April 2017 which incidentally was also the best month ever for the Swift (since its launch) when it sold 23,802 units. However, this is the 2nd best selling month for the new generation swift after Apr 2018 when it sold 22,776 units.

2. With the facelift, Ciaz has taken the mantle of the competitive C2 Sedan segment and this has been reflecting in the sales of other sedans in this category - particularly on City and Yaris. Yaris is already in triple digits and selling much lower than the Rapid is a telling story. And City has fallen to the lowest number since the launch new generation City in 2014, bar one month - August 2014 when the production of City was halted due to some production issues. No wonder, both Honda and Toyota has released new advertisements for City and Yaris respectively.

3. Marazzo has started decently, however it seems Innova was not impacted at all rather XUV 500, Hexa and Lodgy seems to have bore the brunt. XUV has fallen below 2K level for the first time since the facelift whereas Hexa has falledn to lowest number this year and second lowest since launch and Lodgy is dead with just 27 units.

4. Third best month for Brezza since launch, the best being during this May when it crossed 15K for the first time.

5. Likewise, third best month for Creta and also the 3rd time achieving 11K sales volume.

6. Compass is losing its sales and is on a downward trend; the volume has almost halved than the same month last year.

7. Both Ignis and KUV 100 had hit their second lowest month since launch whereas Brio, BRV and Terrano had their lowest ever monthly sales.

8. A decade old Polo has outsold Jazz for 4 months in the last 5 months and similarly a decade old Etios has outsold all the compact sedans except Dzire, Amaze and Xcent.

[jpcoolguy]

A look at the sales of Top 25 cars over the past 10 years.

[AutoNoob]

I am surprised to see Mahindra starting to report Thar sales numbers for last two months. I suspect that Mahindra senses threat to its No. 3 position and trying to cobble-up whatever it has to bolster the position.

In August, Mahindra (18,037) lost its position to Tata (18,420) even with Thar (669) numbers.

This month Mahindra (19,942) is able to regain No. 3 position and Thar (631) has helped in cushioning the lead over Tata (18,429).

It seems, going forward, Thar numbers are going to be lifeline for Mahindra in No. 3 battle.

[Latheesh]

Originally Posted by srishiva

Hexa is a disaster and not sure if they are making any money at all on them. Looks like new designs are doing good and hopefully it will continue with their new releases.

Yes, falling sales numbers are worrying factor for a good product like Hexa. But should they stop making it?

Tata sold 21352 Hexa since the launch, that is an average monthly sales of 1017 units. If we take average 15 Lakhs revenue per unit;

Total Monthly Sales Revenue = 152.5 Crores
Total Revenue since it's launch = 3203 Crores

[selfdrive]

Thanks Aditya for the detailed numbers.

Looking at the overall cars sold, I have a different concern altogether. One which may not go with the general spirit here.

We just added 288,000 cars to our roads in 30 days. At this rate, would we have any space to drive at all? Are there any plans at all to upgrade the infrastructure to accommodate all these new cars?
I understand that some old cars may have been junked and taken off the road. But that number would probably be a fraction of the lakhs we bring on the road.

How soon before we end up getting some policies in place to sell new cars only to those who exchange an existing car? No? Let us revisit the topic in a few years then.

[sunilch]

Originally Posted by Latheesh

Yes, falling sales numbers are worrying factor for a good product like Hexa. But should they stop making it?

Tata sold 21352 Hexa since the launch, that is an average monthly sales of 1017 units. If we take average 15 Lakhs revenue per unit;

Total Monthly Sales Revenue = 152.5 Crores
Total Revenue since it's launch = 3203 Crores

I agree with you that it should not stop the product as these numbers are actually decent. However, please note that 3203 Cr above is total sales volume till date. Tata Motor's Revenue would have been about 40-50% of the same (given our taxation slabs for all cars) - 1281 - 1600 Cr. That is a decent figure for the company to continue the business. Not to forget the repeat business that the dealers are now having from the services at workshops. If you meant total business for all above, great.

[shortbread]

22k Swifts a month, even though the latest iteration of the car just scraped through with 2 stars in the NCAP crash test. But that has never affected Maruti's business model and who are we to question if people are buying this up by the tens of thousands!

[Porcupine]

It's hard to believe they're selling that many Gypsy's. May had 518 Gypsy's sold, that's staggering when you compare it to 545 Vento's in the same month.

[Dry Ice]

Originally Posted by Latheesh

Yes, falling sales numbers are worrying factor for a good product like Hexa. But should they stop making it?

Tata sold 21352 Hexa since the launch, that is an average monthly sales of 1017 units. If we take average 15 Lakhs revenue per unit;

Total Monthly Sales Revenue = 152.5 Crores
Total Revenue since it's launch = 3203 Crores

Umm, shouldn't profits be considered rather than sales to decide? Even 100 cars selling in a year will bring *some* revenue. But the company needs to decide if it's really worthwhile to *spend* X amount of money to *earn* Y profit. If the ratio X:Y is better for other products, it might as well produce those more.

Not saying TML should dump the Hexa, just trying to understand if it does - what could be the trigger from a financial p.o.v?

[vb-saan]

Jeep figures are not so favorable for FCA – just around 1000+ units are not ideal for a manufacturer who solely depends on one model to survive in the market.

[King_pin09]

Nice analysis there Aditya, thanks for sharing.

Few of my findings on the sales chart are,

1. At least 6 out of top 10 and 11 out of top 20 are priced in excess of Rs 5 lakhs. At least 4 out of top 20 costs more than a million on the road. At least 1 in the top 20 costs in excess of 2 millions on the road. – This goes on to show that an Indian buyer is no more concentrating on the lowest price tag; he is willing to spend more if he finds good value in it.
2. Yaris is proven ‘dead on arrival’. The market perception is already built, does not seem to revive/ recover anytime soon, unless Toyota makes serious reform in its marketing strategies. The outdated Etios sells nearly 4 times more.
3. Ciaz roars back into the top 20 list – Kudos . City nowhere to be seen even closer – the true picture would emerge only 6 months down the line once the novelty of the facelift / refreshed model wears out.
4. Only 5 dispatches for the Figo. Heck, the most expensive car from Ford stable the Mustang sells twice as much whereas second most expensive car from ford stable the Endeavour sells 100 times more. The Figo team might face serious cuts in receiving ‘Diwali Bonus’ this year.
5. The Fiat hits a century (sale of more than 100 units) for the first time in last 6 months. This is in addition to two half centuries once in April and another in August. Tough times ahead if they do not stop relying merely on the royalties received on their Multi-jet engines. Enough has been said on this. But the Italians seem not much concerned.

[GTO]

Originally Posted by srishiva

Hexa is a disaster and not sure if they are making any money at all on them.

~800 units of a 15 - 20 lakh Tata is still very, very good. It's also a true flagship product with excellent quality and many endearing attributes. Lastly, don't forget that the Hexa is based on the Aria. Not only is it selling more than 10 times the Aria, but the development cost would also have been a fraction of what it would take to make an all-new car.

I think the Hexa has recouped the Aria's losses for Tata.

Originally Posted by vb-san

Jeep figures are not so favorable for FCA – just around 1000+ units are not ideal for a manufacturer

The obvious question for FCA is = where is the DIESEL AT? Are you getting complacent already? You are simply not giving the market what it wants. Not to forget, your Petrol AT is lacklustre, so you are forcing the customer to look at other options.

[Equus]

The safety scores for the Brezza will surely woo more buyers, especially those who didnt want to buy for this very reason. I am betting Nov will be 20k for Brezza!

4 of the top losers are from Toyota and Yaris will soon hit 2 digit figures! Nothing seems to be working out for them except Innova and Fortuner for several years now. They need to hire someone from Maruti, not just sell rebranded cars!!

Finally we Indians seem to be calling the bluff on Honda City! Its hitting a mid life crisis as there is no insight of a new model. Hope they come with an all new honda city.

Marazzo isnt having the best honeymoon out there. Hope this gets to a respectable 5k per month figure. It seems like a very honest car to me!

Renault needs the new Duster now! Its bleeding on Kwid as well now.

[aniyo]

I have been following the sales report for quite sometime.

All the global companies that have seen India as a geographic extension for their products have failed, be it Fiat, Toyota or Ford.

Only when they have localized their offering to suit the taste of people have they seen success, Ford ecosport, Innova or most of the Hyundai brands. even the old gen Figo did well as it was in line with the local market needs.

The saw called global models that were trimmed to Indian market were huge success, be it Creta or Ecosport both of which are available in other markets with AWD and many features have been omitted and what we are offered is what customers hold value for.

Maruti and Hyundai understand this game well and are reaping good profits. I think ford has started to learn the trick but I am sure other companies will not understand or find no point in making for India