[vinit.merchant]

It is what is going to happen, sooner or later. Kids growing up in metros are going to hate travel in the car, because their parent will have one and they will see first hand the frustration in driving it + the time it takes. They will just hate it.

Compare that to how we grew up. There were fiats and amby's and 800, and that was about it as far as choice was concerned. Roads were as good as empty.
I grew up in Mumbai, Kandivali. Up until 1996 when I completed my schooling, Mumbai was a good place to live. Ours was a society with 80 apartments, and from one end to other, you can count exactly 4 cars in the entire society premise. Add 6 odd two wheelers and that's about it.
Barring the peak hours at major junctions and roads, Mumbai roads were empty. So my car experience was pleasant. That is how we all grew up.

Fast forward to current day, and I am 100% sure my enthusiasm towards driving will be quite the opposite.

That is a fact.

My kids, they do not look forward to a car drive within city. They tag along, and sometimes keep asking when will we reach, and they never look forward to it.

This is not going to change. No way will our kids be as driving enthusiasts as we grew up to be.

The only way the auto companies, as an industry, can try to change that is by making an effort on helping and pressurizing the government on improving the infrastructure, widen roads, etc. But that's a long process. At least 1 generation will grow up hating in-city car travel.

[gauravanekar]

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

That's a valid point. Just like fixed telephone never reached high penetration and was replaced by mobile phones, car ownership may never reach high levels due to better public transport solutions.

To add to your point, I do not think we have enough real estate to support 700+cars/1000persons in Indian cities, even in Villages our living spaces are not spread out like in american suburbs, quite a lot of people live close to each other everywhere. Hence I am sceptical about China like ownership growth in India, it seems impossible

[sumathindra]

UBER has contributed to this a lot. Once public or alternate means of travel are available why would one even bother of owning a liability (not meant for the auto enthusiasts).

Convenience is another aspect people lookup for these days and not having to go thru maintenance, insurance, PUC et al.

Millennial's and minimalists are the biggest contributors towards this trend. Evolving I guess...

[tj123]

Looking at Bangalore traffic it’s quite evident that the roads have reached their peak handling capacity during the rush hours. A ride which usually takes 20 -30 minutes turns into a 1.5to 2hr ordeal, plus the uncertainty of getting a parking headache.
When I look around in my neighborhood all kind of cars are usually parked most of the week days even weekends. This shows that people are not regularly using cars, most of them have moved on to two wheelers or Ola/Uber. People are just fed-up with the pathetic road infrastructure. The Bangalore rant thread says it all. Cars are no longer status symbols in Bangalore. Youngsters around me don’t want to own cars even if they can afford it. They don’t want the hassle of driving and maintaining a car in Bangalore. This I am sure is an urban phenomena.
In short I must say that the joy of driving especially in the metro cities in India is over.

[samdarshi.pali]

Hi,

Sharing a recent BBC article titled "Why you have (probably) already bought your last car"
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45786690

Analysts are predicting that in less than 20 years we'll all have stopped owning cars.

Samdarshi

[1.2TSI7DSG]

Lovely analysis.

My own story in short:

2010

I started my job and got my Father's ageing Indica (he upgraded to a Manza then). 3 years down the line let the 10-year-old Indica go. Super enthusiastic about cars, test drove almost all hatchbacks from the Alto to GT TSI (delayed all decisions to buy a car after driving the GT in order to buy it).

2016

Dad wanted to change the Manza in 2016 to a better vehicle due to the frequent service visits. Again planned and drove everything from a Baleno to the then newly launched Octavia. Smitten by the Jetta & Octavia (the only cars with a better performance than my GT). Took the Ciaz just for the convenience of size, FE & cost. Somehow didn't feel the passion to even push for the Storme (the closest choice at the same price range).

Today
The 5-year-old GT is still my primary vehicle. Considered to upgrade casually but no one even comes close to the performance and the driving pleasure. Given the timeline, I also mentioned to my wife that our next vehicle will most probably an electric vehicle.

Though the fact that family may ask me to move to a better backseat car, but that's what the dad's Ciaz compensates for. I really don't feel the need for a new car for the next 2-3 years atleast! Hoping for a entire churn of the current lineups till then

[coldice4u]

More cars, a no please ! I understand that the auto industry is a significant contributor to our GDP and employment too, but our cities are literally bursting at the seams. No pavements, footpaths etc. People talk about infrastructure, widening roads etc, but i honestly think we dont have space unless we go the flyover route. We even see arterial and colony roads getting clogged due to google maps now. As has been mentioned, driving used to be fun, but unfortunately in the metros and the semi metros, its no longer that. I dont want to make a sweeping statement, but I'm sure people their 30's no longer have the zest to take out a car at 6PM comapred to lets say a youth in his 20's. On the contrary, I've been taking bus rides regularly on Sunday to attend a few classes and its surprisingly how fun and fast buses can be when we dont have traffic. I personally love a fast bus ride with the world wheezing by.

People blame the public transport and say its bad and inadequate, but one of the reasons its so is because we have too many cars and the buses cant run the way they were supposed to. If I do have kids later, I'm sure they will see me mostly cursing at the traffic and the general road mannerisms when behind the wheel

[COMMUTER]

This trend is ushered in by the poor infrastructure in cities.Once the quagmire is bypassed by relocating or renovating the demand will pick up.

I have been using cycle or walking for a while now and have been using my car for long drives. The bike is gaining dust nowadays.

[ramji_or]

Originally Posted by Tapish

The other issue is of mobility. Most people in this age group move cities/ countries pretty soon. One of my friends was on track to buy a Jeep Compass due to a good lease offer from his company, but stopped when another opportunity came up in a different country.

Agreed! I did not have the need to buy a car in India until 2018 while I could have managed to afford a car for myself way back in 2011. The passion towards motorcycling, my family requirements back then and the abroad opportunities were the factors.

Thinking on a broader perspective though, considering the efforts from government to push the market towards relatively cleaner emission vehicles,

1. For an enthusiast, until the likes of Tesla launches in market and becomes affordable, the purchase interest would keep wearing down.
2. For a common car buyer though, market is already witnessing the rise in sales of smaller displacement petrol vehicles.

[batish]

It had to happen sooner or later. I'll share my experience here:

Even at the end of graduation, only 2 friends had driving license and one of them used it primarily as an ID Proof. All of them were used to Ola/Uber/Metro. Primary reason for not driving was traffic. Some of them didn't even know the position of pedals, whether it is ABC or CBA. Odd-even rule, hike in parking charges, ban on diesel vehicles more than 10 years, insurance, repairs, fuel were factors too.

Delhi is not the same as it was 5-6 years ago. 1400 CARS are added to Delhi roads EACH DAY. That's 42,000 CARS EVERY MONTH and this was in 2014.

There are 3 traffic signals in a stretch of 1.5 kms and sometimes it takes 1 hour just because the traffic lights malfunction or a bus breaks down in middle of the road.

Add to that corporations come up with policies of hiking parking charges according to whims and fancies.(Parking on roads to cost three times more, says South body)

Parking charges in November last year were hiked to Rs 80/hour at metro stations. (Link)

Originally Posted by GTO

- Car ownership in India is a matter of pride, enjoyment & status.

Taking case of Delhi, I don't think there is any pride and enjoyment in driving here.

- Unlike developed countries where car penetration levels are 600 - 800 cars / 1000 citizens, the same for India is a paltry ~30 / 1000 citizens. There's a LOT of room to grow.

Delhi itself has more than 10 million registered vehicles with population of around 18.6 million. It's 100 vehicles / 186 citizens, not considering vehicles & population of NCR area.

Considering the roads I don't think there's much room to grow for metro and urban cities.

[sandx]

I have been delaying my car purchase for almost a year now. I keep doing test drives because a new launch gets me excited, but once I hit the road and experience the traffic, along with the potholes and the unmindly populace jutting out of nowhere eager to implant a ding on your car it just gets so frustrating.

I have been taking out my car only on weekends nowadays because its too much of a chaos out there. Started taking the company provided cab or the metro for my daily commute. And my apartment is fortunately at a place where I can get on a bus right at my doorstep.

And there is a certain attachment as well to the Alto I am driving right now. Once I get moving I feel like this thing is going strong even after 10 years and rides so well without anything to complain. Makes me stop looking at anything else, not entirely sure when I will get myself to convince for a new car as there is no real need. Right now I just have a 2 wheeler in my radar as a next purchase.

On the Uber, OLA factor frankly I haven't used their services much except for some airport runs, however zoomcar and the likes are a silver lining for me as I get to choose a car from the options available and drive it when I feel like, so thumbs up on that front.

The TATA JTP launches makes me excited though yet again. Another test drive it is then.

[Alfresco]

You will find some distinct trends in car sales and ownership patterns depending on:
1. Population density
2. Availability of air-conditioned and clean public transport options
3. Quality of road infrastructure
4. Economic condition of the area.

Mumbai people are used to public transport and have been avoiding multiple cars, generally, in the family. But even then, the sheer population pressure is choking everything.

Delhi people were used to broader roads and therefore went in for multiple cars but, with good Metro connectivity, this is changing.

But if you go to many areas of Maharashtra, the situation would be different as the only option for family transport is your own car(s).

Or you come to a state like Rajasthan for sheer driving pleasure

In the US, you can survive in downtown areas without a car but it would be impossible to do so if you live in the suburbs. In Europe, the distances are not so vast so the situation would be different.

To exactly determine the trend, we shall have to go in for comparing car sales in densely populated areas to less-dense areas and finding out a correlation between increase in car sales vis-a-vis population increase and increase in wealth.

Perception wise, informed buyers in India have started delaying decisions because of the electric vehicle policy and the increasing maintenance costs of keeping extra vehicles in urban areas.

[HighwayofLife]

Originally Posted by Alfresco

Perception wise, informed buyers in India have started delaying decisions because of the electric vehicle policy and the increasing maintenance costs of keeping extra vehicles in urban areas.

Nope- nothing's changed. People in Delhi still buy their cars and park outside their house, as well as fight with neighbours when their "reserved" slot on the road is taken by someone else. No one here really cares about the electric car policy. Their only requirement is "Unchi gaadi chahiye" (want a tall vehicle, a.k.a SUV). And most of them who are even higher middle-class buy more than one car.

This is also reflected in the massive sales of Suzuki, Hyundai, and other car-makers. Yes, Uber, Ola, and Metro add a layer of ease and comfort, but they don't eliminate people's desire to own a car

[DrPriyankT]

As much as this kills me to say this being a BHPian, I don't like to drive for my daily commute in Mumbai. I work at KEM Hospital and I find the local train much more convenient. I live eight minutes from Andheri Station and KEM is barely 800m from Prabhadevi Station and I always find a place to sit in the train, the cherry on the cake being I can get a quick nap in my commute, something I can't do when I drive! ! And taking the train avoids the parking and traffic hassles various other BHPians have described before.

Yes India is a growing and tempting market for the biggies in the auto industry as we don't seem to have a plateau in our car market for sure. But we need better infra here, no doubt about it. Our cities can't accommodate any new cars for sure. With the new transport infra under construction in our cities these days, I feel car ownership in cities will peak out in the coming days and years. However cars will sell by the dozen in smaller cities, and rural areas due to the lack of infra and the pride seen with car ownership.

[landcruiser123]

While I appreciate all your views on this matter, we've to remember is that most of us here are the educated middle class. We belong to the 2% of the country's population that pays taxes. Some of us live in densely populated urban areas (Bangalore, Delhi) and maybe some of us don't live in a jam-packed metro city.

The reality is that the number of people who can think of affording a car is still very low. This is a case of social inequality- people aren't able to afford cars. On the whole, India's auto market has a potential for growth. Will it grow rapidly? I don't think so. Also, our weather is pretty moderate that people using two-wheelers isn't unfeasible.

For your reference: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/a...ver-be-closed/