[BlackPearl]

Saw this article today on Economic Times regarding a paradigm shift in buying trend of vehicles, specially among the urban youth in India. Though I never thought I would say this, but sadly this is the truth and inspite of me not being an youth anymore, I feel the same. Buying cars is no longer a top priority for me. Traffic congestion and parking issues do not worry me that much, but the 10 year rule for diesels and the imminent advent of electric and autonomous vehicles are the main reasons for me to slowly lose interest in buying new vehicles. Here is the link to the article -

https://m.economictimes.com/industry...w/66296079.cms

[gkveda]

In my personal view, the cycle goes like this.

1. In order to increase the car sales, some big cat (May be some manufacturer)will influence and SC orders the Ban of 10 year old diesel cars
2. Dealers and manufacturers think it is good for them since the car life cycle time is less than 10 years and people buy more cars (Sales figures increase)
3. People look at this differently and stop buying cars
4. Dealers /Manufacturers will sense people's decision of hesitation to buy cars through their sales statistics going down.
5. A different big cat (Those who are involved in decision)will bring pressure on Government from back end and the lobby starts
6. Same Supreme court will remove the Ban and increase it to 15 years or 20 years.
7. Now dealers will be happy and their sales figures goes up.

[alpha1]

Check a related thread here:
https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/inter...ime-years.html (Chinese car market could stagnate / shrink for the first time in years)

Originally Posted by GTO

More than shrunk, I think China's car market might have hit its peak for the time being. App-based cabs, worsening traffic, work-from-home options, 2-wheelers (including cycles) & a changing culture where the youth are more interested in gizmos than cars is putting a lot of stress on the auto industry.

That said, make no mistake, despite having stagnated, the Chinese car market is HUGE. Think like 7 - 8 times the size of the Indian car market.

I can see the times to come in India. (the topic of this thread is on similar lines)
However, one thing that we are jumping onto is that the underlines part are urban phenomena, not a rural one.

I am not that aware of China, but surely there is a great market in the Indian rural hinterlands that will move to higher end as the income levels rise in India (caused by the rising income levels in the cities).

[dhanushs]

I can relate to BlackPearl. 5 years back, wherever I went, it had to be driven down. Now, somehow, with the traffic, the general road manners, and maybe because of me growing old, I take the convenient option.

Like, I can never imagine driving from Kannur (Kerala) to Trivandrum (Kerala) during the daytime. The drive is a nightmare. I'd take the train and book a cab when I arrive.

BUT - is buying a car lesser priority? I'd say no. Well, if its for me, then it's purely on an enthusiastic value. The amount of money spent on my (each car) current garage and the practicality proves it . But, in general, I think most Indians will buy a fancy car at home and then take the public transport.

[GTO]

Originally Posted by alpha1

Check a related thread here:
https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/inter...ime-years.html (Chinese car market could stagnate / shrink for the first time in years)

Thanks for quoting my post! Over & above what I posted on the China thread:

I don't see it hitting car sales as much in India as abroad. Reasons:

- Car ownership in India is a matter of pride, enjoyment & status.

- Unlike developed countries where car penetration levels are 600 - 800 cars / 1000 citizens, the same for India is a paltry ~30 / 1000 citizens. There's a LOT of room to grow.

- Our public transportation infrastructure is incredibly poor.

- The current Uber & Ola prices aren't sustainable. They will inevitably go up one day as the companies look at profits.

That said, yes, growth will surely take some hit due to the app-based cabs, traffic scene, work from home culture, 2-wheeler popularity etc.

[Tapish]

Originally Posted by BlackPearl

specially among the urban youth in India.

Originally Posted by GTO

- Car ownership in India is a matter of pride, enjoyment & status.

From what I have observed in the youth (friends/ family / and myself as well) the need for a second car is dwindling in the DINK families. People buy one good car for the pride, convenience etc and uber around. I have one car that I use for moving around but use Uber frequently if I know Im headed to a parking nightmare or if I expect to get drinks.

Parking, driving in congested environments and drunk driving are major hassles for the youth and with Ola/ Uber being around they find it more comfortable.

The other issue is of mobility. Most people in this age group move cities/ countries pretty soon. One of my friends was on track to buy a Jeep Compass due to a good lease offer from his company, but stopped when another opportunity came up in a different country.

[comfortablynumb]

Seems to be a worldwide trend, as discussed in this thread:

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/inter...rs-houses.html (The Cheapest Generation - Why Millennials aren’t buying cars or houses)

Cheers,
Vikram

[ashlil]

Originally Posted by GTO

- Unlike developed countries where car penetration levels are 600 - 800 cars / 1000 citizens, the same for India is a paltry ~30 / 1000 citizens. There's a LOT of room to grow.

You mean to tell me that we have this level of congestion with just 30 cars per 1000 citizens! Imagine if we had 600-800 cars per 1000 citizens! That alone kills my interest in driving. If only we had last mile connectivity with public transport...

[Yieldway17]

Originally Posted by GTO

- Car ownership in India is a matter of pride, enjoyment & status.

This is not much of a factor among young people even upto mid-30s. Many people I work with who earn decently well and can drive and afford decent cars don't even think about owning cars as they strongly believe driving and maintaining a car is a chore. Many instead splurge on better motorcycles and take Uber/Ola/Taxis for family travel needs.

[caffeineAM]

Originally Posted by ashlil

You mean to tell me that we have this level of congestion with just 30 cars per 1000 citizens! Imagine if we had 600-800 cars per 1000 citizens! That alone kills my interest in driving. If only we had last mile connectivity with public transport...

I suspect those are national level stats. In big cities ratio would be higher. Either way, this is still ignoring the amount of space those cars have to ply.

Recently I came across an article talking about cars and bikes per KM of road in Mumbai. Conveniently, it ignored how many of those are commercial vehicles and did not talk about autos at all. Point I am trying to make is, do not use statistics to arrive at a decision without doing your own research.

Public mass transit is very important for big cities though. Right now I commute to work driving along an under construction metro. Once that completes, I'm switching to using the metro... once or twice a week at least

[Dry Ice]

Originally Posted by GTO

- Unlike developed countries where car penetration levels are 600 - 800 cars / 1000 citizens, the same for India is a paltry ~30 / 1000 citizens. There's a LOT of room to grow.

Specifically on this point. IMO, though the numbers may seem encouraging (implying a lot of room to grow), but if we were to consider the widespread economic inequality - it will become clear that car ownership levels may never hit those levels. Unlike the developed countries, 20-30% of our population is still below poverty line. And about as many might be just about surviving. Record 2-wheeler sales also seem to indicate, we aren't there yet in terms of purchasing power (even for a entry level car). So 600-800 cars/1000 citizens might not happen in our country ever.

[locusjag]

I recently surprised myself on the "Bangalore traffic rants" thread by literally screaming out why most interview or job offers come up only in Bangalore, a city renowned for traffic jams. A lot of BHPians advised me not to shoot down growth opportunities just because of the traffic in Bangalore. A few BHPians had mirrored my thoughts. A few sensible BHPians showed me a mirror to my soul - and I didn't even have to ask the mirror who was the most demented one of all. The writing is on the wall, as far as I'm concerned.

But I never knew I was harboring such deep ill-will towards traffic and city life until I hammered out my rant here on this forum. After that happened, I have been observing and listening to myself these days - I time my office commutes in Chennai so that I escape traffic. I use backroads and non-existent roads to further escape traffic, even during lean hours. Every once in a while, I make it known to people that I hate traffic. Despite buying a new car in 2018, I've only made a handful of long trips. I stay home on most weekends. I keep collecting dashcam footage of idiots on the roads (for what?). I seem to have dark thoughts about humanity as a whole whenever I commute.

God - what have I become? I've become a BHPian who doesn't live to drive!

Will I graduate to not owning a car in a decade? That's highly likely. Assuming I stick to Chennai, and that the Metro rail project is completed in 10 years, you know I'm going to become one of those hippie types who don't own a car, who cycle/walk a lot or take the train.

Or - let's say that some political leader pulls off a masterstroke and implements the Bullet train in Chennai. Let's just pretend so. I'd be the first one to rent a house in a town far outside of Chennai. I'd be so glad to travel to work inside the city and get the hell out, superfast. I wouldn't mind owning a car if I were living outside of the city.

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by Dry Ice

So 600-800 cars/1000 citizens might not happen in our country ever.

That's a valid point. Just like fixed telephone never reached high penetration and was replaced by mobile phones, car ownership may never reach high levels due to better public transport solutions.

[SJM1214]

Most of the above posts are from the members who are from big cities like Pune, Banglore, Mumbai etc. Keeping the traffic condition in mind of these big cities and availability of Uber & Ola, it's obvious that people are not that enthusiastic to own car ( or cars).

However, things are different in small cities. I am from Anand, Gujarat. Anand is comparatively a small town, however its centre of milk revolution, tobacco farming and NRI movement. I observed that people here buy their first car as a necessity and second car as pride, enjoyment and status. Most of my local friends have one normal car which they use for small commutes and one or two premium cars which they use for long travels. Traffic, Parking space, general road manners and these kinds of factors don't affect our car buying decision(at least not yet).


One of my teenage cousins from the USA quoted this "Successful people don’t buy property — they rent.". Now, I do not agree with this quote but somehow renting makes sense. Why own a car if you can take a cab? It’s almost a personal car with a driver. And believe me, this is the thinking of the majority of teenagers nowadays.

[satishv1987]

I think most people in the 21-28 age band(Tier 1 city based) might defer a car purchase till they turn 35.

Increased occupational mobility results in most youngsters not staying in the same city/organization for more than a couple of years. With the availability of Uber/Ola for their daily commute, it makes very little sense to invest in a car.

It is also important to note that this demographic might get married quite late ( marriage at 30 is very common these days, for both genders) and start a family even later. They will not feel the need to purchase a car till then. Even if they were to, the car might end up being used sparingly - primarily for highway drives and not a day-to-day basis.