[Equus]

Thank God the sales are down!! I for one, wish they go down further and people use public transport more often! The options in the cities at least are many (cycle/bike/scooter/car) for that weekend need. Rentals are here to stay and flourish!! I gifted my cycle to my niece and use
Pedl for the weekend rides. Rented Zoomcar when we needed a 7 sweater!
At least 1 car and the Thunderbird will soon go!

[Sebring]

It's too early to celebrate. This could be the usual year-end slowdown. And as you might have noticed promotions were not that great this time around to arrest the decline

Originally Posted by Equus

Thank God the sales are down!! I for one, wish they go down further and people use public transport more often!

[GTO]

Originally Posted by GTO

Worse still, millennials are lesser interested in cars than any of their preceding generations. My own brother just kicked his new car purchase down the road by 2 - 3 years. Reason = he has better things to spend the big money on. Millennials prefer experiences + technology + lifestyle to car ownership. For every one time that my brother drives, he takes an Uber 10 times. And this, despite growing up in a household where his father & brother are crazy about cars, and he sees a new test-drive car every other week in the driveway.

My brother made a solid point. He says, don't compare the cost of car ownership to using an Uber / Ola.

Instead, compare the cost of chauffeured-car ownership to Uber & Ola. There is simply no contest. A good chauffeur in Mumbai will take anywhere between 15 - 20k monthly salary.

[acidkill]

There are plenty of factors working against the automotive sector..

1. The rupee has slid down from 40 levels in 2008 to 70 levels in 2018. That has definitely hit purchasing power. Definitely many buyers have been pushed down a segment or two as a result.
2. Government will keep oil consumption growth at less than 2% a year. So it will keep increasing oil prices to achieve this. You must understand that india is always in a trade deficit on the us dollar and we depend on capital receipts to make up the difference.


There is a huge growth in the cost of car ownership and there is no comparison between the cost of owning a car with using ola / uber and I am personally thinking of surrendering 2 cars in the house myself.

In the financial trade, plenty of rumours doing the rounds that in general, an automotive dealership has now become an unviable proposition. Such is the pressure of growing cost structures and collapse of purchasing power

[Nithesh_M]

let's not forget the increase in costs owing to this dumb move:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/65612881.cms

[volkman10]

With the lacklustre festive season for almost all car companies now customers are served with more season discounts -the best in recent times.

From market leader Maruti Suzuki to luxury vehicle maker Jaguar Land Rover, automakers have lined up steep discounts to lure buyers and clear year end inventory

Link

[volkman10]

The sales gloom in auto industry forces manufacturers to trim their production output.

Increasing discounts and freebies at dealerships to push footfalls, and enable sales. Many companies are reportedly threatening about price increases from January, a routine marketing ploy adopted towards the end of the year to pull customers towards new purchases on fear of price hikes

The situation became grim in November as output was cut by 21 per cent. The month saw 14 of the 17 companies report a strong decline in factory output.

Maruti Suzuki said that other factors that are pulling down demand are the growing influence of shared mobility (Olas and Ubers) as well as rising congestion in the cities. This, it says, has been putting customers off new purchases in metros and larger cities.

Link

[Nilesh5417]

I would like to believe it as a permanent trend when the numbers contract at some rate for a few more months at least? Otherwise it could just also be pessimism due to lot of factors already discussed plus the big election coming soon. The stock markets obviously have not been doing well either. Based on the discussions at work and in friends community, my opinion is that the working middle class seems the most pessimistic. Millennials may not want cars right now, but this working middle class of middle age probably still do but are very cautious of making big ticket purchases.

[avishar]

Sales is going to pick up once car leasing takes off in India.

[volkman10]

Sluggish growth continues in the auto industry.

The country's leading manufacturer, Maruti Suzuki is likely to fall short of its target growth.

Car maker Maruti Suzuki India Ltd said it would struggle to meet its target of double-digit sales growth for the financial year.

Indian automakers are grappling with high commodity prices and foreign exchange rates, amid weak monthly sales and slowing demand in the domestic market.

Link

[tarik.arora]

I am always amazed seeing the monthly sales numbers. How on earth can certain models like Alto, Swift, Dzire, i20, Creta and the likes post such consistent numbers on a monthly basis. We sell over 3.5 million cars in a year and the industry is bound to grow. India has a huge potential for cars with majority of the opportunity lying in Tier-II and below areas. Tier-I and metro cities might actually de-grow in the future but the overall industry growth will be there. What we are seeing is a temporary dip because of multiple factors that have been discussed before. Unfortunately, most of this de-growth is coming from marginal players like Renault, Nissan, Ford and VW as they do not have any worthy new product on offer. If we look at the model wise data, the numbers are coming from new launches. If such scenario prevails, we may have more GM's exiting our market but the fun never ends. We will welcome Kia and MG with open arms.

[volkman10]

Originally Posted by tarik.arora

Unfortunately, most of this de-growth is coming from marginal players like Renault, Nissan, Ford and VW as they do not have any worthy new product on offer. If we look at the model wise data, the numbers are coming from new launches. If such scenario prevails, we may have more GM's exiting our market but the fun never ends. We will welcome Kia and MG with open arms.

These fringe players have neither new products to offer nor their after market support is great. So even if they exit we have nothing to lose as there are more and more new players on the anvil of entering and cannot afford to ignore India's growing auto segment.

[volkman10]

In a chain reaction to slowdown in the Auto segment, Bosch to suspend production at Bidadi plant for two days next week.

Link

[avishar]

BTW, the mighty China automarket is in freefall too, and they dropping even harder.

July, August, September, October and November, the Chinese market is a 5 month of straight decline, and sales are declining in double digit percentages every month.

There’s one bright spot, however—sales of new-energy vehicles (NEVs), a category including battery-powered, plug-in hybrids, and fuel-cell electric cars, kept growing despite the overall sluggish auto market. Some 1.03 million NEVs were sold in China in the first 11 months of the year, up 68% from the same period in 2017, according to CAAM data.

That’s thanks to China’s continuous support (paywall) for NEVs, which includes government subsidies and license plate controls on diesel cars. NEVs now account for around 0.6% (link in Chinese) of all the vehicles on the road in China as of June, according to data from the Ministry of Public Security. The country wants NEV sales to make up 20% of the total auto market by 2025.

[volkman10]

Market Growth of Passenger vehicles has seen a downward trend in 2018, but continues and could be worse in 2019.



Body Style:




- Growth is influenced by new launches

- Sedan grows in the backdrop of Maruti Suzuki's Dzire and Honda's Amaze

- MUV's growth too is influenced by Mahindra's Marazzo and Maruti's Ertiga

- Hatchback is the worst hit in growth and market share.

- SUV's growth has been influenced by Tata's Hyundai's and Maruti Suzuki's offerings

Vehicle Size :




Predominantly a small car market of which cars <4m length contribute to 77% of the market.

In cars (4m-4.5m) segment, Hyundai's Creta and Maruti Suzuki's S Cross contributes to the growth in this segment.

Inthe MUV segment which grew at the expense of Toyota Innova & Mahindra Marazzo.


Hatchback segment:



- Clearly a slowdown on the entry level , while the premium segment picks up.

-Honda discontinues its Brio as the entry level is usually with low margins and with fierce competition.

- But Maruti Suzuki has not given up yet on this segment and has planned further new launches in the coming months.


Sedan:




- Except for sub 4m sedan, every other sedan segment was in decline mode.
Growth of sub 4m was led by incremental volumes from Maruti Dzire followed by new gen Honda Amaze.

C/SUV: -Monocoque Chassis






- It is quite apparent that new age more urbane SUV/Crossovers took the charge of leading the segment -Very high growth of the two premium (-relatively) segments is attributed to low base

- Now its territory is being invaded by Tata’s Harrier, later in the year will be followed by MG Hector and Tata H7X

SUV: Ladder chassis






- By splitting data, it is apparent that ‘real’ SUV are not selling so well

- High stance surely gives them the formidable and imposing image but they aren’t quite urban jungle friendly

- Surprisingly, Toyota’s mighty Fortuner suffered decline in sales,
Reason could be entry of new SUVs in similar price bracket, like – Skoda Kodiaq (Monocoque chassis), Honda CRV (New diesel engine), and little bit of Mahindra Alturas


MUV: Monocoque



- Drop contributed to model change in Maruti Suzuli's Ertiga


MUV: Ladder Chassis




Source: