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Old 8th January 2019, 13:58   #31
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by volkman10 View Post
Overall Retail sales (sale of cars from Dealership to End Customer) for December-18 for all auto segments.

-The PV Sales were down by 7% in FY18-19 vis-a-vis FY17-18! A much more tougher time for dealers rather than the OEMs as inventory will be high.


Attachment 1834890

Source:
Couple of days back Business Standard had put up this article which says Maruti alone retailed 2,14,000 PVs in December.

https://www.business-standard.com/ar...0600629_1.html
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Old 8th January 2019, 14:13   #32
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Hexa, endeavor and Fortuner battle is amazing. People buy Fortuner because it is a Fortuner, I don't think most of the Fortuner buyers even go to ford or Tata showroom.

One of my friends is a die-hard Tata fan, he bought the Hexa XTA without even test driving anything else.

I am surprised at the sudden interest in Duster. Wonder what people think
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Old 8th January 2019, 14:26   #33
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (F A D A) releases Decemberí18 Vehicle Registration Data

Quote:
Post festive season, Fuel Prices have reduced to its lowest levels in the last 3 months. Although Liquidity continued to be a major constraint in December, a number of initiatives seem to be on the table of our policy makers towards easing the overall situation, positive effects of which will be felt in this quarter.
Quote:
CV inventory reduced slightly in December but continues to be above normal. Continuation of the efforts, as taken in December by CV OEMs of calibrated dealer billing, coupled with continued strong retails, will ensure return to normal dealer stock levels in January.

F A D A would like to highlight that the Inventory of 2W Dealers still continues to be Very High and we hope that similar Positive steps, as taken by the PV OEMs, are being taken by the 2W OEMs and wholesale billing in January will be moderated, as per the months retail situation.
Quote:
According to a survey conducted by F A D A among its members, the current inventory of PVs ranges from 35-40 days, 2W ranges from 55-60 days and CV ranges from 35-40 days.
Quote:
Our study shows that for the month of December and on YoY basis:
- 2W were up by +11%
- PV were down by -3%

For the Current Financial Year up to 31st Decemberí18 and on YoY basis:
- 2W were up by +5%
- PV were down by -2%
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Old 8th January 2019, 14:27   #34
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thanks Aditya for the monthly sales analysis of December.

Few observations from my side -

1. As expected, the year end has brought a muted sales to the automotive industry as a whole and almost similar to the last year December. In fact, only 105 cars have been sold more than last year this month.

2. The Top 4 OEMs - MSIL, Hyundai, M&M and Tata have posted their lowest sales month of 2018. M&M have seen this lower sales after more than 2 years - Nov '16 was the last time they sold lesser cars than this month when they moved only 12,389 units. Point to note is that they were even able to sell more units during the GST introduction month - Jun '17.

3. Surprisingly, Alto posted its best monthly sales of 2018 and have crossed the 25K mark after a long time - Jul 2017 was the last time when it sold 26,009 units. May be due to the effect of lower sales of WagonR due to its impending facelift.

4. Celerio regained the top position from Santro which had pushed Tiago to 3rd place which posted its lowest sales of the year.

5. Eeco has recorded its best ever monthly sales and have crossed the 8K mark for the first time. I suspect MSIL might have pushed more Alto / Celerio / Eeco / Omni to compensate for the loss in sales of WagonR.

6. Lowest sales month for both the new generation Swift and Dzire since launch. And lowest sales month for Baleno in a long time after Jun 2017 (the GST month) which was the last time when i20 sold more than Baleno and repeated the same feat this month.

7. Xcent registed its worst ever month since its launch back in Mar 2014 (excluding the launch month due to its partial dispatches) and have been pushed to 5th place in the Compact Sedan category. And this is the first time both Etios and Tigor managed to outsell Xcent in the monthly sales.

8. In the sedan battle, Verna has been pushed down to 3rd place registering its 2nd lowest sales month since new generation launch. However, Verna managed to outsell City just by 560 units in the calendar year - Verna, 42605 units and City, 42045 units. Ciaz stands tall with 50759 units for the calendar year.

9. Yaris, Terrano, Zest, KUV 100, Micra and Brio recorded their lowest ever sales month since launch.

10. Similar to Baleno, Brezza recorded its lowest sales month since Jun 2017 (the GST month) and on both occasions fallen below 10K units mark. Creta too registered its worst sales since its facelift launch earlier this year.

11. Similar to Verna-City battle, Nexon has managed to outsell Ecosport by just 546 units considering the full calendar year - Nexon, 52519 units and Ecosport, 51973 units.

12. Kicks kickstarted its sales with 11 units and these may be mostly the media vehicles, the actual sales numbers will be coming only from next month.

13. The fall in M&M numbers can be attributed to one of the lean months for their bread and butter Bolero registering its lowest month since Jul 2016 (sold 3,929 units). Even their cash cow Scorpio seems to have hit a new low since since Aug 2014 (sold 2275 units) and the XUV 500's steep fall in sales as well. However, they are saved by Marazzo's consistent sales of more than 3K units compensating for the loss of sales in Scorpio for the past few months.

14. Considering the whole Calendar year, M&M has managed to retain the 3rd position from Tata's increasing market share who have managed to leapfrog Honda in 2018. Hope, with the launch of Harrier Tata will be able to move to 3rd position in 2019.
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Old 8th January 2019, 15:04   #35
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

A look at the Top 25 cars during the month of December over the past few years -

December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-historic_sales_december1.png

December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-historic_sales_december2.png
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Old 8th January 2019, 15:28   #36
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by prakash_ajp View Post
That's probably not possible since the manufacturers may not have a system in place to track the sales between the dealer and end customer. Besides, once in the showroom, the sales to the customer may be in various stages of sales, it might be impractical to track them.


Even it's possible, I don't think it's worth it at all. In the long run, it hardly matters.
Last when I checked we are in year 2019; do you really think the car manufacturers don't know exactly how many cars are being sold to customers every month. Using the existing system car manufacturers show inflated sales for New cars in the first few months to mislead customers so it suits them nicely. And for existing cars they show a more consistent demand while consumer demand is never so consistent.
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Old 8th January 2019, 15:33   #37
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Its high time car sales volume are calculated based on the actual registration done instead of inventory pushed out by companies to dealers as it doesn't reflect the actual scenario.
From hereon the car sales are expected to slide downwards only with new emission norms coming in and the focus on EVs increasing though this will reflect from 2021 onwards only.
It is good to see Indian manufacturers like M&M and Tata Motors coming out with winners one after another.
It's still a mystery why so many people buy the Alto, Omni & Eeco in this age and times. The Celerio selling 9000+.
The marketing team and dealer network of Maruti Suzuki India continues with their wonderful efforts.
Hyundai India needs to wake up from it's slumber as they have reached their peak and are having manufacturing constraints and unless they expand with factories, new models and dealer network soon their volumes are going to be stagnant. The Creta has for the first time shown such a huge drop.
Renault India should come out with the new Duster at the earliest, no amount of Kick is going to Captur more market share for them.
Honda India also seems to bein a slumber.
As for the rest they are playing the catching up game.
Volkswagen India has just today launched the four year campaign, hope it works for them as they have good solid cars but a poor network with bad reputation.
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Old 8th January 2019, 15:58   #38
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by mxh View Post
Last when I checked we are in year 2019; do you really think the car manufacturers don't know exactly how many cars are being sold to customers every month. Using the existing system car manufacturers show inflated sales for New cars in the first few months to mislead customers so it suits them nicely. And for existing cars they show a more consistent demand while consumer demand is never so consistent.
So, when is a car really sold to a customer?
a) When a customer books a car and pays an advance
b) When a customer is allotted car with the VIN number
c) When the customer arranges the remaining money.
d) When the car gets registered to the customer.

Before (d), the sales can get cancelled any time.

Barring exceptional cases, most cars dispatched from the factory to dealers will get sold. So, I don't really know why the "real-time" sales figures really matter. Like I said, couple of months down the line or little later, the demand or the lack it will show.

As far as marketing is concerned, I see manufacturers mostly boast with their booking numbers, not sales figures. By the way, I don't like the customer who buys a car looking at how many copies gets sold every month. So, perhaps I am biased and couldn't care less if they are misled or not
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Old 8th January 2019, 16:51   #39
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Samba View Post
My observation -

Top gainers of the month has 8 out of 10 cars whose sales are low or mediocre.

The list - Duster, Sumo, Endeavour, Vento, Ameo, S-Cross , Hexa, Etios

This means the companies have billed these cars to their dealers to clear their 2018 stock. As these cars are slow moving, am sure these stocks will be available with the dealers till Feb or March.
So we can expect some discount/offers on these models and expect lower sales figure for the next couple of months!
While I totally agree to your point, the Endeavour is not really a slow-mover in that segment. I am guessing Ford might be considering clearing the inventory ahead of the Endeavour facelift launch.
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Old 8th January 2019, 18:01   #40
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by //M View Post
While I totally agree to your point, the Endeavour is not really a slow-mover in that segment. I am guessing Ford might be considering clearing the inventory ahead of the Endeavour facelift launch.
I agree Endeavour is doing good and is being sold without any special discounts, 1-1,5 Lac was the number in recent past. Overall I will say FORD has done good, shows the efforts of the guy at top

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...ndias-ceo.html (Meeting with Ford India's CEO)
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Old 8th January 2019, 18:38   #41
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

TOP TEN cars of 2018 . Maruti Suzuki continues its dominance.

-Dzire’s facelift in May 2017 makes it now an all rounder now, dethrones Maruti Alto after 13 years; and emerges as India’s highest selling car of 2018.

-Swift and Baleno does impressive volumes each and crossed >2 Lakh sales in Calendar Year 2018. India's consumer buying power could see these cars overshadowing Alto in coming years.

- Another case of buying power, Hyundai’s Elite i20 finds more customers than the Grand i10 .

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Last edited by volkman10 : 8th January 2019 at 18:57.
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Old 8th January 2019, 23:14   #42
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Since the calendar year has come to the end, thought of compiling the Top 25 cars sold every calendar year in the past few years.

December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-historic_sales1.png

December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-historic_sales2.png

1. This is the first time MSIL occupied the first 6 slots in the sales volume in the calendar year. This is the second consecutive year when no cars from manufacturers other than the Top 2 manufacturers MSIL and Hyundai has entered the Top 10 positions, pointing to the sad reality of utter dominance by these 2 in the Indian Automobile sector.

2. First time, Alto has lost its top spot to another car. The older i10 was the second best selling car in 2010 and their best selling in 2011.

3. Tata Indica was in the Top 10 slots in 2010-12 occupying 5, 5 and 7 positions respectively. The old workhorse Bolero was also a prominent one in the Top 10 till 2015 after which it never made it to Top 10 slots. In fact, during 2010-12 Tata has 2 cars in Top 10, Indica/Indigo/Nano combination while Hyundai too had only 2 cars - i10/i20/Santro combination - how times have changed?

4. Other than these 4 OEMs (MSIL, Hyundai, Tata and M&M), only 3 other OEMs have one of their cars in Top 10 in a calendar year, starting 2010. Honda had City in 8th and 9th positions in 2014 and 2015 respectively, Toyota had Innova in 9th position in 2013 and Renault had Kwid in 8th position in 2016.

Last edited by jpcoolguy : 8th January 2019 at 23:39.
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Old 9th January 2019, 09:46   #43
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by mxh View Post
Last when I checked we are in year 2019; do you really think the car manufacturers don't know exactly how many cars are being sold to customers every month.
Manufacturers absolutely know - down to the last car - how many have been sold at the retail level each month. But they'll stick to factory dispatch numbers as it allows them to "game" the system of reporting.

Retail sales are based on actual demand. On the other hand, factory dispatches are based on predictions, dealer relations, inventory status at the factory, targets to meet, the manufacturer's mood (I'm serious) and a lot more.
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Old 9th January 2019, 10:10   #44
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by mxh View Post
Last when I checked we are in year 2019; do you really think the car manufacturers don't know exactly how many cars are being sold to customers every month.
Dealer dispatches and dealer sales are regularly collected by the manufacturers. Regarding stock clearance or selling more of certain models, the OEMs have their own methods.

I know that one of the leading OEMs forces its dealers to take certain less popular models every month along with other fast selling models. Now to clear stocks of these relatively slow selling models, higher discounts are offered which is partly reimbursed by the OEM. Even the sales team is advised to push these models to the customers. Hence, we can see some high numbers for certain models every few months (usually happens when stocks build up at the OEM or dealer ends).

Also from what I have heard, for certain old models which are there in since a long time, the fixed cost of development has been long recovered and hence, the margins are considered lot higher vs. other models. Hence OEMs are happy to give bigger discounts on such models to push sales and continue to milk the model.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO View Post
Manufacturers absolutely know - down to the last car - how many have been sold at the retail level each month. But they'll stick to factory dispatch numbers as it allows them to "game" the system of reporting.

Retail sales are based on actual demand. On the other hand, factory dispatches are based on predictions, dealer relations, inventory status at the factory, targets to meet, the manufacturer's mood (I'm serious) and a lot more.
+1.
Several factors including past sales trend is used to decide the optimal manufacturing numbers of each model. Once manufactured, based on demand, the dealers might 'take' a model or will be 'given' a model to sell.

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Originally Posted by procrastinator View Post
When I was in market last month to buy something from Maruti Suzuki stable and went to check out the entire range from Alto to Brezza.
The sales manager was more interested to sell Alto, Wagon R, Celerio and Dzire.
This was despite of the fact our keen interest was in Alto and Swift.
We end up getting one of the sweetest deal on Alto especially on December 29.
An exact example of what I tried to explain above!

Congratulations on your new car and wish you many happy years with it.

Last edited by ashis89 : 9th January 2019 at 10:26.
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Old 9th January 2019, 10:22   #45
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Default Re: December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I have an observation to make from GTO's post (December 2018 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis) on dealership interests.

When I was in market last month to buy something from Maruti Suzuki stable and went to check out the entire range from Alto to Brezza.
The sales manager was more interested to sell Alto, Wagon R, Celerio and Dzire.
This was despite of the fact our keen interest was in Alto and Swift.
We end up getting one of the sweetest deal on Alto especially on December 29.
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