[Col Mehta]

Originally Posted by discoverwild

GDP is at 5% after the current Government chose to change the parameters for calculation. It would be much lower if the older formula was in use.

Apologies if I sound naive asking this, but could you please throw some more light into this. I tried Google but all I could find was how "brilliant" our economy has been doing recently .

Thanks!

[PrideRed]

Slowdown/correction/recession whatever seem to be hitting hard everywhere. I was travelling from home after Ganesha festival yesterday and was mentally prepared for super heavy traffic. Surprise, the highway wore a deserted look, even lower than usual weekend traffic. One of toll booth guy upon inquiring mentioned traffic has reduced considerably over past few weeks. To add Many fuel stations are reporting drop in sales by over 50%: Shockked: . If this trend continues for long, some of the manufacturers will shut shop.

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by PrideRed

Slowdown/correction/recession whatever seem to be hitting hard everywhere. I was travelling from home after Ganesha festival yesterday and was mentally prepared for super heavy traffic. Surprise, the highway wore a deserted look, even lower than usual weekend traffic. One of toll booth guy upon inquiring mentioned traffic has reduced considerably over past few weeks. To add Many fuel stations are reporting drop in sales by over 50%: Shockked: . If this trend continues for long, some of the manufacturers will shut shop.

Really? Is it that bad? Oh man...that's just abominable. We ventured out gingerly to Mahabalipuram ourselves yesterday, expecting traffic everywhere. Traffic turned out to be a tame domestic cat, compared to the fierce tiger that it usually is. We breezed in and out and I just thought that maybe people stayed home for their Pujas.

[discoverwild]

Originally Posted by Col Mehta

Apologies if I sound naive asking this, but could you please throw some more light into this. I tried Google but all I could find was how "brilliant" our economy has been doing recently .

Thanks!

A detailed explanation can be found here. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/...644946510.html

[bipinbn]

Originally Posted by PrideRed

Slowdown/correction/recession whatever seem to be hitting hard everywhere. I was travelling from home after Ganesha festival yesterday and was mentally prepared for super heavy traffic. Surprise, the highway wore a deserted look, even lower than usual weekend traffic. One of toll booth guy upon inquiring mentioned traffic has reduced considerably over past few weeks. To add Many fuel stations are reporting drop in sales by over 50%: Shockked: . If this trend continues for long, some of the manufacturers will shut shop.

Wow, co-incidence. Had similar observation this morning.

This being a long weekend, started today morning from Mysore at 6:45 AM towards Bangalore as I do every other weekend. Was expecting way too much traffic but was not the case. Was able to reach Bangalore outskirts by 9 AM.

Was wondering what could be the reason for such less traffic!! Hope slowdown is not the reason !!

[PrideRed]

Originally Posted by bipinbn

Wow, co-incidence. Had similar observation this morning.

This being a long weekend, started today morning from Mysore at 6:45 AM towards Bangalore as I do every other weekend. Was expecting way too much traffic but was not the case. Was able to reach Bangalore outskirts by 9 AM.

Was wondering what could be the reason for such less traffic!! Hope slowdown is not the reason !!

It indeed is, however might not be the only factor. The rain played a spoilsport in what appears the major tourist places of Karnataka and folks are thinking twice to visit these place. However sluggish fuel sales, lack of traffic on a long weekend on highway, plummeting car sales- all point to slowdown. On a different note my friends who were in Bangalore did mention the festive mood was not upto the mark even in major areas like Jayanagar.

[speedfreak01]

I did observe something similar here this week while I had gone to dine out with my family last sunday at the DLF cyber hub,gurgaon. The place is usually packed on weekends but it wore a very deserted look that day and while all the restaurants over there usually have a waiting of 30-40 mins, this time there was zero waiting at all the restaurants and almost all of them were just half occupied. Upon enquiring with my server, he said that business has been low since few months. Food and entertainment industry is one industry I’ve never witnessed a slowdown in even during the lean times. But things seem different this time.

[MCR]

Had a similar experience (less traffic on highway) on Friday as well. Had been to Mysore to celebrate the festival and the city had lesser number of visitors then usual. Mysore road was not so busy (towards Mysore). However did not see much difference in the festivities and the fervor.Drove back today morning to Bangalore and reached home in 120 minutes. The traffic was lesser than usual.


My uncle who is an Automotive Spare parts dealer reported a very dull business scenario. His business has dropped > 30%.

[audioholic]

Originally Posted by MCR

My uncle who is an Automotive Spare parts dealer reported a very dull business scenario. His business has dropped > 30%.

I fail to understand this impact to the aftermarket guys and those dealing in providing service. If new car sales actually reduce, shouldnt the sales of spares and services(third party, not authorised dealer) still remain the same or increase? Why should there be a decrease in that? Lesser new cars also means the reliance on existing vehicles stays or increases. That means these cars also need to be cared for.

Fuel and toll collection is a different ball game. But the effect on the aftermarket or independent service providers somewhat surprises me. The number of vehicles plying in the road still will remain the same, unless people are hoarding vehicles in some place without using them.

[Shreyans_Jain]

Originally Posted by audioholic

I fail to understand this impact to the aftermarket guys and those dealing in providing service. If new car sales actually reduce, shouldnt the sales of spares and services(third party, not authorised dealer) still remain the same or increase? Why should there be a decrease in that? Lesser new cars also means the reliance on existing vehicles stays or increases. That means these cars also need to be cared for.

This can also mean that people are trying to have no unnecessary car travel and are choosing to delay maintenance until unavoidable or something is actually broken.

It is well known that profits of car dealerships are driven by service and spares, not by selling new cars. Car manufacturers struggle when people don’t buy new cars. Dealers struggle when people don’t bring them in for maintenance. In today’s scenario, it’s a combination of both.

[Deep Blue]

Why would anybody want to buy cars? The roads are filled with craters and unruly traffic. On reaching the destination, there is no parking. Highways are filled with tolls, but the highways are poorly maintained.

The highway that I use most commonly is the NH 66 stretch between Kundapur and Mangalore. It is a distance of about 100kms and has three toll booths charging 130rs one way fare. Part of the stretch has a good surface, but is ill planned with no proper exits or entry for slip roads. So there are barricades to slow down at almost every 10kms. The remaining stretch is terrible for more than half the year.

The infrastructure is terrible. I have to pay through my nose for this terrible infrastructure with all types of direct and indirect taxes and tolls. Fuel is expensive and polluting. Car manufacturers themselves only want to profiteer and provide commuter tin cans. Who would want to buy a car in this situation?

[ajayclicks]

Originally Posted by audioholic

I fail to understand this impact to the aftermarket guys and those dealing in providing service. If new car sales actually reduce, shouldnt the sales of spares and services(third party, not authorised dealer) still remain the same or increase? Why should there be a decrease in that? Lesser new cars also means the reliance on existing vehicles stays or increases. That means these cars also need to be cared for.

My guess is that, when a person buys a new car, his older car doesn't simply disappear or is scrapped, rather it makes its way into the used car market. So there are 2 cars that are now being serviced instead of 1 (the new car that the individual purchased, and his older car that has a new owner). However, if people are feeling the pinch and not purchasing new cars, then the same ripple effect will follow in the used car market as well- not enough supply and/or the used car buyers also feeling the same economic pinch.

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by ajayclicks

However, if people are feeling the pinch and not purchasing new cars, then the same ripple effect will follow in the used car market as well- not enough supply and/or the used car buyers also feeling the same economic pinch.

When car owners begin to hold on to their older cars in a bad market, the prices of used cars tend to go up owing to the supply squeeze. You might think that the used car market's demand would shrink during a recession; but what (I think) happens is that quite a few potential new car buyers would end up shrinking their budget and they choose a cheaper used car over a new car. A recession doesn't hit everyone the same way, so there are many used car buyers on the hunt for a purchase even in a recession-hit market; these might be people who are in a safe spot despite the state of the economy, but who are looking to stay cautious and not splurge while also meeting their needs/desires. So in a way, they ensure that demand outstrips supply in the used car market.

I caught the bad side of the recovering US economy in 2013 when people were still holding on to their cars, in the long shadow of the 2008 crisis. I had to shell out $16k for a used car which would've cost half as much in a normal market. By the time I sold it in 2017, the economy had bounded back and so I had to sell it at a somewhat steeply depreciated cost I caught the bad side on either ends of that economic cycle.

[Durango Dude]

Originally Posted by Col Mehta

Apologies if I sound naive asking this, but could you please throw some more light into this. I tried Google but all I could find was how "brilliant" our economy has been doing recently .Thanks!

The economy is either doing great or not so great depending on which side of the "divide" people are sitting. There's no "via media" these days: only "for" or "against" the Govt. What's not so great for NDTV is great for Republic TV and vice versa. Truth is hidden some where in between and is getting that much more difficult to seek and find. But for us when Maruti is down 30% on numbers then economy isn't doing great

[Ford5]

Pre owned cars make for very good value these days. I purchased a 2010 Civic with Cruise Control and Paddle shifts and have got pretty good interior quality compared to a new car which costs 20 lakhs or more for a fraction of that price. No dealer needed. No insurance company needed. No absurd GST charges. No bank loan business. No crazy road tax and Octroi levy. No mandatory fast tag charge and no mandatory third party insurance raising prices over and above the roof, oh and no funny registration and what have you charges for accessories that used to come on cars pre 2010 included in the ex show room price. Was a BHPians car as well. Sharing is caring if you might!

Platforms like Olx have made pre owned car dealers more civil and rendered many Multi showroom car dealers more friendly than before. Middle class Indians have the metro, their bike or scooter and retrofitted CNG LPG cars as well to combat petrol costs exceeding all emis combined.

Oh and size for price wise a Hyundai Venue top end model costs insane money. Yes sir, forget the 10 lakhs on road price barrier for your small to mid size car.

Not exactly the will buy if it has 6 airbags over 2 airbags kinda situation.